>say it's about UK not affording it
>Read the actual article
>different nations want different things which is leading to one nation not wanting to put forward money for a project 2/3rds of the contributors don't want
huh?

>>64997565
That's a lie though lmao

What capability does the UK want that GCAP doesn't have?

The UK is basically saying
>guys this Is all going so fast what if we waited l? it would be cheaper and we might get better technology.

Meanwhile Japan has a hard 2035 inservice deadline for GCAP. The UK and Italy both knew this going into GCAP and now when the UK has to pay for it suddenly it's slow down and lets not be hasty.

Japan is rightfully pissed. Don't join program with a hard inservice date if you have no intention of actually trying to hit that date.

Italy knows this and it's why they're paying.

>>64997585
>>64997565
This isn't some shock or surprise to the UK.
Japan didn't trick anyone or pull the wool over anyone's eyes.
Japan has always been forthright and upfront about their timeline requirements. It's one of the reasons the UK let Japan join since they saw the timeline and knew japan wasn't going to delay things.
From what I can tell, the UK's treasury is looking at the RAF fleet on paper, and sees the Tranche 2 and 3 Typhoons are going to be in-service until at least 2040-2045, so why should they pay $10B today for a jet to fly in 2035 when they don't "need" it until 2040?
But again, everyone knew going into GCAP that japan's F-2 jets were falling out of the sky and NEED to be replaced by 2035, this isn't a negotiable timetable for japan, and the UK knows this.

So yeah, this is just the UK slowing down a major defense program they had previously agreed on a much faster timetable for because they don't want to sign the check for it today.

>>64997565
> for a project 2/3rds of the contributors don't want
The FT author is reporting what they were told by anonymous sources, likely from the UK MoD, who are trying to save face. But official government records from Rome prove the opposite: Italy just voted to spend €18.6 billion and their Defense Minister is publicly calling the UK's behavior 'madness.' Italy and Japan have signed their checks; the UK is the only one hiding behind 'requirements' because the Treasury is holding the DIP hostage until June.

You can't say 2/3rds of the contributors don't want it based solely on this one line with zero source to back it up when Italy's own politicians and budgets basically tell you you're wrong.

> Tokyo’s main aim is to produce a new fighter by the mid-2030s, whereas London and Rome are more interested in GCAP producing a cutting-edge “system of systems” — a jet that operates in concert with a swarm of drones — over a less rigid timetable, one of the people said.

This is basically just a UK MoD official throwing out an excuse (uhhh it's actually not meeting both italy and our requirements) because they don't want to have to admit the treasury won't sign the check.

There is no actual source from an Italian firm or Italian politician that you can draw on to show proof.

>>64997565
Italy and Japan have been calling out the UK for months. The entire project is being held up solely by the the Brits. Japan has even said "Pay up or get the fuck out"

Is BAE IP actually important to the project or are they just humoring the brits for a paycheck? Maybe they could swap the UK for Germany?

>>64997872
It's not even really about the IP at this point.

It's just about the timeline.

Japan COULD bring in another partner, or even do some of the work themselves, but it would add months or years of delay to the program.

Japan would rather give the UK some leeway to figure their shit out if it means they get to keep the timeline alive, but this delay is starting to threaten that 2035 in-service deadline japan has, so they're not going to wait around much longer.

>>64997553
The delay to GCAP (if you call 6 months a delay and not just normal program slippage) has nothing to do with GCAP. There's a UK wide assessment of defence spending as we shift from annual budgets to ten yearly budgets. Some things will be cut, some will be added. But on the list of things that might get cut, GCAP is nowhere near the top. In a few weeks the plan will be published and progress will resume. The UK's finances are in significantly better shape than those in Italy or Japan, this isn't about money for GCAP it's about finalising the whole MoD's budget.

Just as I wrote in earlier threads. The UK is technically but not formally bankrupt. They are going to lose their carriers and their nuclear subs in the coming decade because they are utterly skint. They will likely rebase their sub missiles on land to save face.

>>64998037
Thanks for discrediting yourself. Give me a giggle and give us your technical definition of bankruptcy.

>>64998017
>In a few weeks the plan will be published and progress will resume.
Purdah is hitting on March 26th, which will stop any movement from parliament on getting the DIP signed until at least may, but probably june/july as once the election happens, they usually take a few weeks to “settle” the new government (even if it's the same party in-charge), before voting on big ticket items like the DIP.

Purdah rules do allow for things to get pushed through if they're in the "national interest", but the fact the DIP has been delayed for over half a year already means it's unlikely to get pushed through during a period where they'll be under increased scrutiny to not meddle with the election.

Basically the DIP gets signed by Thursday, or it wont be getting signed until June/July.

>>64998058
Has no relevance to releasing funding, it just delays the announcement of the whole report, it's findings can still be implemented.

>>64998017
This. If anyone actually read the article it's because funding is caught up in the defence investment exercise which is delayed because they're having to rearrange all the expensive shit they need in the next 20 years. GCAP isn't getting cut, neither is AUKUS or Dreadnought. But the money can't be signed off until the DIP is published, and it can't be published until a £28 Bn funding gap is closed, either by massaging timelines (as the treasury hopes) or extra cash from the treasury, who have a horrible tendency to just pretend you don't need this stuff if you 'cant' fund it. My guess was they were hoping they could 'find' an extra couple dozen billion quid in the next few months by recalculating with falling gilt yields but Trump & Netanyahu's recent fucking retardation have utterly fucked that strategy by sending 10 year yields back to 5%.

Kek, germs will eventually get themselves a share in the Brits' nuclear arsenal, if not a de facto complete takeover - now starting with the ELSA IRBM project. Screencap this cause it'll be a reality in 15, maybe 20 years max.
Start dilating, nigel.

>>64998071
Legally yes, realistically no.

If parliament had that kind of political will behind the DIP/GCAP, they'd have signed it months ago, not waited for the most politically contentious period where LEGALLY there are several ways DIP funding can be blocked under Purdah rules.

Why would they pick now, when it can be easily blocked by an ethics violation claim (influencing the election during Purdah)?

If they had the ability to get this thing funded/signed they'd have done so when Starmer visited japan in early feb as it would've been as easy political "win".


So while yes, Purdah rules don't 100% stop things like this, unless you get the prime minister and other big parliamentary players on board AND permission from the top civil servants at the MoD, Treasury, and the cabinet office to all agree then it's just not going to happen, and if you could get all of those people to agree on the DIP/GCAP funding already, they wouldn't be waiting until the last second before Purdah kicks in to get it signed.


Also the 10 year plan was supposed to be the FIX for the delays, not the cause of further delays.

>>64997872
>>64997879
I mean either way if the UK gets booted or leaves for any other reason, GIGO agreements would still hold the UK responsible for all their workshare and financial obligations for I think 5 years effective after the departure. GCAP would still run as before with the same tech, but the UK would lose out on partnership status, any IP from the other two, and likely any production lines. When GIGO was finalized it was designed to basically make leaving GCAP completely unfeasible as you would be stuck paying for a program that you won't get any benefits from. GCAP has almost entirely been controversy free, but somehow the handful of times problems have popped up it's magically always been the UK at fault. It's even more ironic when the UK was fearmongering over Japanese export laws and how it would destroy the program since export sales funding would be lost even though Japan already had a bill going through to provide special exception to GCAP and was passed within like 2 months of the UK complaining. The other one I can think of was Italy lodging a complaint because the UK was refusing to share info on jointly developed sub-systems.

>>64999239
> The other one I can think of was Italy lodging a complaint because the UK was refusing to share info on jointly developed sub-systems.
The UK's argument on that is they're bringing background IP to the table as a "blackbox", they're using that blackbox IP to control the hardware being created for ISANKE, so the jointly developed sub-systems are the hardware, and the UK is arguing that the software they're bringing was wholly developed in-house (or with the US), and they wont (or can't due to ITAR) share the software.

Italy is arguing that they can't trust blackbox software that they can't see/modify the source code on, while the UK says it was developed with IP they've been paying for and developing for decades and that they rightly "own" it outright.

The most likely outcome for GCAP at this stage for the UK that I can see is they accept a tier 2 role in GCAP where Japan covers their portion of the R&D bill, the UK still gets a significant (though smaller) manufacturing role in the program and loses the freedom of modification rights (since they won't have equal ownership to the resulting jointly developed IP, since they're not paying for development), and veto rights on the export sales (since they'd no longer be a co-developer).

The biggest thing the UK is going to lose is the final assembly line. It's looking far more likely the jets will be assembled in both Japan and Italy, but at the moment the UK isn't allocating the money needed to fund the assembly line in the UK, and it's a very long-lead project that would require planning/funds allocations very soon to hit the 2035 date.

>>64999239
>When GIGO was finalized it was designed to basically make leaving GCAP completely unfeasible as you would be stuck paying for a program that you won't get any benefits from.
What's keeping them from just refusing to provide the funds they're obligated to spend on the program just like they're already doing?

>>64997553
fucking broke ass bitch the uk is
>t. italian

>>64997585
2035 IOC is beyond optimistic for a multinational program that hasn’t even flown a demonstrator, let alone a prototype. They can set whatever deadlines they’d like, but I don’t see any way that happens when they don’t even have a finalized design yet.

I decided to look at the parliamentary calendar to see when/if the Defense Investment Plan even could get signed anytime soon, and it's not looking likely.

If they miss this week, the next earliest opportunity is likely early June to mid July, and if they miss that window then it wont get signed until October/Nov/Dec.

Purdah rules begin March 26th, which will prevent the DIP getting signed until May 8th, but it'll probably be at least 2-3 weeks when parliament doesn't want to vote on anything big (right after the election is bad optics). Then there is a 1 week recess in late may, so June 1st is the first "real" chance for the DIP to get signed, and that window will remain open until July 23rd when they'll head off for summer recess until September. But that's only a 2 week session before another 1 month recess, and they simply wouldn't pass a major budget in a 2 week window. Which would mean the next opportunity would go to the fall session (October 12th to December 17th).

So June 1st to July 23rd is likely the next chance for the DIP to get passed. If it misses that window then the next chance is October 12th to December 17th.

>>64999424
9 years when they're supposed to have a flying demonstrator next year (assuming the UK actually pays to finish it) isn't really all that absurd.

Prototype is expected to follow around 2029-31, which again is reasonable to assume ~4-6 years from prototype to LRIP units being delivered in 2035.

Yes it's ambitious, but it'd be a lot easier if one party could pay their bills on time.

>>64999443
I don’t think there’s any way they meet that timetable, it’s beyond ambitious for a next generation stealth fighter. That’s a tight timeline for a domestically developed 4th generation fighter. That this is a multinational program is already introducing delays, and will continue to do so, especially when it comes time to dial in final requirements and again when it’s time to integrate weapons. On top of that stealth fighters are inherently more complex than non stealth fighters, and if they intend to integrate bleeding edge technology that in itself will likely cause further delays. Given all that I think it will be an accomplishment if they manage an operational squadron sometime between 2037-40.

>>64999478
The US claims to be taking F-47 contract award in 2025 to a flying LRIP aircraft by 2028. And sure we know it probably had a scale model flying earlier in 2019/20, that's still in the same 9-10 year timeline as GCAP.


Again, I agree it's ambitious, but one party is making sure it CAN'T hit that 2035 deadline, the Italy and Japan are at least doing their best.

>>64999530
The AII program that produced the demonstrators began in 2015, meaning ~3-4 years to demonstrator flight and a decade to contract award. On top of that the last hard number we heard for the NGAP engine program is 2030, though GE and Pratt both seem to think they can deliver faster. This is with a single customer and set of requirements, and quite a lot more money poured in. Even then I think the timelines are wildly optimistic. If Boeing can deliver the first flying F-47 prototype in 2028, that is ~13 years from demonstrator award to flying prototype. If they can match the B-21’s ~4 year first flight to IOC timeline, which is wildly optimistic, it is ~17 years from demonstrator contract award to IOC. If they can execute that highly ambitious schedule with no delays there may be a useful number of F-47s in service in 2035, ~20 years after the demonstrator program began. I do not see GCAP hitting a 2035 IOC when it is already suffering from schedule slip due to funding delays and facing a possible fight over black boxed IP when I’m bearish on the F-47 hitting that window when it is much farther along and not facing that same set of challenges.

>>64999564
Hadn't you seen? Air force is already talking about using F119's as an interim for the first few LRIP F-47s.

They recently awarded pratt a $1.5B contract to refurbish and do maintenance on "over 400" F119s, which will likely see ~6-12 F119s "donated" to the first few F-47s so the US can do flight testing throughout the late 2020s and early 2030s, getting ready for NGAP in ~2031.

The F119 fleet is largely spoken for in the F22 fleet (370 hot engines and ~30-50 spares), but the airforce will likely "lend" some engines from the spare pool.

>>64999619
While F119 is the most likely surrogate engine, and one will be necessary, I see that contract as being more related to the slew of upgrades the F-22 is currently receiving with the aim of extending its useful service life. However using a surrogate engine on the earliest LRIP airframes will add a significant amount of engineering work, as the adaptive engines will need a wider than normal diameter to accommodate the third stream, meaning either the F-47 will need to be designed to accommodate mounting both F119 and larger NGAP, or it will require a Block II configuration designed around the larger engine. Either of these possibilities creates a large amount of work, but the use of the F119 as a surrogate engine also pushes back the full rate production of F-47 as total airframe numbers will be limited by the number of spare F119s they can borrow and how many of the oldest non combat coded Raptors they can cannibalize. Ideally the $1.5 trillion budget dos get passed and NGAP gets enough money to fund the faster schedule the primes are pitching and renders this all moot, but if it doesn’t that is a major limiting factor on the F-47 being available in number this side of 2035.

>>64999670
NGAP delay was reported due to supply chain issues, not funding.
I don't think throwing more money at them will do anything to speed it up.

>>64999685
That was the statement certainly, but then GE spent summer ‘25 campaigning for the schedule to be accelerated back to its original timeline of they were to be given the money to do so. Though I suppose it might be more of a Pratt issue, as they are currently struggling to maintain their military engine deliveries while their civilian side is completely underwater and may be sued for breach of contract by Airbus. I think given this GE probably takes the contract, but RTX has very strong lobbyists and the government likes to give the appearance of fair contract competition.

>>64999256
>the UK is arguing that the software they're bringing was wholly developed in-house (or with the US), and they wont (or can't due to ITAR) share the software.
Isn't this the same UK that constantly bitches and moans about only having partial access to the F-35 source code? I didn't even imagine it would be possible that bongs would become frog tier when it comes to multinational defense programs, but here we are. I doubt its ITAR as the whole point of Euro 6th gens is to completely remove the US from the equation. I hope MELCO just develops their own software for ISANKE since they have the experience from both the F-2 and F-15J and shares it with Italy.
>>64999391
>What's keeping them from just refusing to provide the funds they're obligated to spend on the program just like they're already doing?
The most minor thing would be some international court arbitration and some settlement. The real consequences would be getting shit canned from ever doing joint development Italy and Japan again, and perhaps shit canned by anyone but thirdie shitholes. Probably see both countries eliminate UK components from their defense industries and perhaps increased tariffs on goods to make up the loses. Its one thing to be late on payments, but to completely breach contract then shirk all payments and responsibilities would be a death sentence for the UK defense industry which is already pretty heavily reliant on multinational programs.

>>64999919
>I hope MELCO just develops their own software for ISANKE since they have the experience from both the F-2 and F-15J and shares it with Italy.
They're already starting to do so as a "plan b".

>>64999933
>They're already starting to do so as a "plan b".
Realistically its probably a pre-plan a getting the dust blown off. With how far along F-X was prior to GCAP I wouldn't be surprised if they had a beta avionics. A flying testbed was partially completed so there would have to be some kind of avionics package to go with it.

>>64997565
It was Italy just a month or two ago who was calling out the UK has hiding the software source code as "madness", if anything both Italy and Japan have been losing patience with the UK.

>>64998058
>>64998094
>>64999434
Why are you talking about purdah? There's not a general election is there?

>>65000999
Purdah rules apply regardless


Especially for something as large as the DIP which impacts business and jobs throughout the country. If the DIP gives a big contract to a business in a particular town, that town has been influenced by the DIP and can no longer objectively vote.

This was discussed just a few days ago and the secretary of state refused to say otherwise.

>purdah commences before the Scottish elections. Then we will have the Welsh and local elections. It is our understanding—and the Secretary of State is welcome to correct this—that the defence investment plan cannot be published during purdah. If that is the case, and if it is not published before the rise of the House on 26 March, we will not see it until well into May. That is why this question is so important.

>I ask the Secretary of State the question again, because he has failed to answer it so far. It is a very simple, straight question, and it needs a straight answer. Will the defence investment plan be published before the House rises for the recess—yes or no?

The secretary of state didn't correct him on purdah, implying the rules DO apply, and said it'd be done when it's done.

While purdah rules do allow for exceptions for national interest, they'd have to get it approval and past the treasury who have been refusing to release it even before Purdah, they're never going to allow the release during purdah when it would easily be argued it's unfair influence on the election.

Surprise, surprise, the bongs are the dogs of the US MIC and are only there to kill the project!

>>65001024
Honestly I think they're just incompetent morons, not US lapdogs poisoning the well.

>>64997585
>>64997857
Have Japan and Italy considered that what we offer in soft power and defence might be worth more than carrying the bag for GCAP?

>>65001018
Kick the Brits out already.

>>65001288
Sure, and that's why they've given you ~4 months to sort your shit out. The fact is it's not looking likely to change anytime soon and no, what you're bringing in "soft" power isn't worth the $10B check you're not able/willing to pay.

Just like in any joint defense program in history, whoever is paying the bills gets the final say in design/workshare. At the moment that's Japan and Italy.

And I can assure you japan and italy are NOT going to pay to build a GCAP manufacturing line at Warton because the UK can't get their thumbs out of their asses.

They'll keep paying BAE/RR/Leonardo UK to do work on GCAP, but they wont be paying for the industrial manufacturing tooling required for the UK to actually build/assemble the jets.

If the UK is fine essentially being relegated to a specialist subcontractor role instead of a co-developer role, then this is fine.

But sorry, no you don't get to pretend to be leading a program you're not paying for.

>>65001292
RR is too entwined in the engine to be kicked out fully.

At worst the UK will be relegated to Tier 2 (even if not officially) in the program.

>>64997565
>>64997585
perfidious Albion strikes again

Whoever is talking about the UK being 'kicked out' is a fucking fantasy. The project would collapse totally & the UK will cancel future surface vessels or army armour orders before they lose this.

They're just working out what to cut to keep this going, not actually backing out.

They can also still sign and release funding during Purdah if the DIP is done, they just can't announce it. This would fall under the national interest rules.

>>65001395
>They can also still sign and release funding during Purdah if the DIP is done
Any release of funds legally requires a public contract announcement, which can't be done during Purdah without getting a ton of approvals from all levels of the civil service, and would basically never be done with something as massive as the DIP which will 100% influence local elections, and would be grounds for a legal stoppage even if they DID try to release the funds during Purdah.

Yes, on paper the law allows this to happen, in reality it never would happen. See >>64998094

>>65001404
Who's talking about all of the contracts in the DIP? Quietly signing the international agreement-related ones and releasing the funding can be done and the announcement can come after Purdah lifts.

This place is bureaucratic but not as inflexible as you make it seem

>>65001407
>Quietly signing the international agreement-related ones and releasing the funding can be done and the announcement can come after Purdah lifts.

Legally, it can't. You cannot disburse funds without a public announcement. By law the government HAS to report spending over 25,000GBP every single month. You can't "sneak" a multi-billion pound contract award through Purdah.

If a Minister tells a Permanent Secretary to "quietly sign" a multi-billion pound international deal during an election, the Permanent Secretary will demand a Ministerial Direction.
A Ministerial Direction is a public document that essentially says: "I am forcing the Civil Service to do this against their professional advice on value for money or propriety." There is no such thing as a "quiet" Ministerial Direction. It would be leaked to the press within 20 minutes, becoming the biggest scandal of the election.

>>64997553
That does put a new spin on the news that Poland is negotiating joining the project right now (presumably as an observer). They could use the additional funding.

>>65001416
>>65001407
I got curious, so I went hunting.

The most that could be allocated without triggering purdah rules is £5,193,000, but that's before VAT, so ~£4.3M after VAT.
If you tried to do multiple tiny £4.3M contracts to try to avoid triggering purdah rules, that was made a criminal offense in the Procurement Act 2023 and it's called "disaggregation", and the National Audit Office would move for an immediate injunction.

>>65001496
Not really, it's just one of several nations who have put their foot forward now that the UK is shitting the bed on funding.

Canada also said the other day they're interested in seriously discussing GCAP

Germany is also likely to be seeking observer status

India recently brought GCAP up in their own parliamentary discussions, but it's most likely to just be a negotiating tactic to make sure France doesnt jerk them around too much when India joins FCAS in replacement of Germany. Realistically, FCAS aligns with India's actual needs more than GCAP does.

>>65001416
>>65001504
"legally" purdah means jck shit. It isn't law, It's a parliamentary convention and parliament is sovereign, so it can ultimately do what it wants. It has previous carve outs for things in the 'national interest' and specifically for preventing waste of public money which signing the next stage of this contract would definitely fulfil.

Look I know it gets you hard to think the UK's 'overbearing bureaurocracy' will cause this otherwise cool program to come crashing down but it's simply fantasy.

You might be right that they wouldn't do it quietly, but it wouldn't be a scandal and a local election purdah certainly won't be allowed to be the reason this project falls apart.

This is purely an exercise in the MoD having their big ticket projects (Dreadnought/Astrea, Tempest and AUKUS) held to ransom so they cut that £28Bn funding gap down a little in a way that the labour back benchers won't revolt over

>>65002508
If it were as simple as you claimed, why the fuck has it taken 8+ months and counting?

Also, why the fuck would a sitting MP SPECIFICALLY say it's blocked under purdah, unless the secretary of state wants to correct him, and the secretary of state DIDN'T correct him. >>65001018


And the civil servants, who are the ones who need to sign off on if this is allowed to be done during purdah are held legally responsible and will always err on the side of blocking something during purdah, especially something this large.

And here is another example from just a few hours ago

MP John Cooper:
> of key interest to us is the tug of war going on between the MOD and the Treasury over the defence investment plan. We have some indication of what is going on—I think we have gathered that it will not come out this week. Can the Secretary of State give us some indication of whether the purdah period for the upcoming elections in Scotland in May will further impact the announcement of this critical plan?

SoS John Healy:
> I do not know why the hon. Gentleman imagines that there is a tug of war, especially when he can look at the Government’s record over the past 18 months in putting in place a record increase in defence spending, the degree of support that the Chancellor has given to recognising the rising demands on defence

Basically a complete non-answer and dodging the question.


Again, i'm not saying it CAN'T be done under purdah, simply if they had that much political will to get the DIP signed and GCAP funded, they should've used that political will 4+ months ago.

>>65002331
>India joining FCAS
Yeah that project would get canned if that happens

>>65002577
France is going to dictate 100% of the aircraft design and india will be at most a glorified parts supplier and piggy bank.

France just needs someone to help cover the shortfall FCAS will have once Germany leaves.

>>65002557
I didn't say it was simple, only that purdah is essentially irrelevant here and there won't be some blackout period starting soon which means that the project will fall to pieces if it's not signed in the next few days.

The Con MP is trying to gotcha Healey into setting a date to be used as a deadline so he can be beaten with it later if he doesn't meet it, this happens fairly often and is essentially meaningless. Especially now the Faustian bargain the cons made after breakfast has come home to roost.

The real issue is that there's a lot of big ticket shit moving to a predictable 10 year plan in the DIP which all needs to have a payment schedule associated with it. Healey is right that record investment has been announced and already signed off by the treasury, but its not a simple thing to do and even then some decisions will need to be taken about rescheduling programs seen as less urgent or more flexible. Again, Tempest, AUKUS and replacement warhead are not getting cut so you can give up on your purdah fantasies.

>>65002581
> there won't be some blackout period starting soon
Anon again, Healy previously dodged even answering if the DIP could even be released during purdah. That isn't setting a hard date as a "gotcha" that's just asking for a procedural clarification, which he refused to give.

> Healey is right that record investment has been announced and already signed off by the treasury
No, if they had "already signed off by the treasury," we wouldn't be waiting, they'd be announcing it's done.

>>65002599
And he'd have known the answer of it being technically possible before he asked, meaning this is an answer on the timeline for finalising the contents rather than procedure.

2.5% GDP is already baked in by the treasury which is record funding, this DIP is about finding a wait to bring it up to 3% early. See this article: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpqwl10lvr2o

>>65002621
It's just accounting lies anon, that you clearly believe.

The Treasury’s current "baked in" figure is the one from the Autumn Budget 2025, which keeps defense at roughly 2.3%–2.4% for this fiscal year.

Healey and Starmer are currently trying to convince the Chancellor to move that 3% target forward to this Parliament to pay for GCAP and AUKUS. The Treasury hasn't baked it in; they’ve told the MoD they have to cut existing programs to afford the acceleration.

When John Cooper MP asked if Purdah would "further impact the announcement," he was identifying a legal blackout window.

If it were technically possible to sign the DIP during Purdah, Healey would have said: "The hon. Gentleman is mistaken; international defense commitments are exempt from election sensitivity rules."
Instead, Healey talked about 1,200 minor contracts. That is a silent admission that the DIP is legally stuck.

We're clearly not going to have the DIP signed by the start of purdah, so we'll see what excuses Healey has in april, probably will flat out say they can't discuss it during purdah.

>>65002621
>2.5% GDP is already baked in by the treasury
Isn't that just bullshit though? They just added in the Single Intelligence Account (SIA), and military pensions and a few other things under the defense spending umbrella, whereas previously they weren't considered defense spending. Those additions brought the defense spending up to ~2.6%, but it was just an accounting trick, no actual additional money got allocated or spent.

>>65002656
Pretty much.

If they were previously spending £50B on defense, £10B on intelligence, and £15B on military pensions, for a total of £75B.

Now they're spending £75B on defense, but intelligence spending and military pension spending is all under the same umbrella (defense). The total is still £75B, but now they get to say to the public they're spending a LOT more on defense.

>>64997565
>a project 2/3rds of the contributors don't want
lmao what the fuck kind of cope is this?

>>64999412
Good on you greasy wops for actually paying your share.
Being the “junior” member of a big joint program like this can be challenging, but Italy is making the UK look like morons. Good job.

It's Tornado all over again.

>>65003066
Not quite, but kind of if you squint, I guess.

>UK gets kicked out for failure to pay
>Germany joins instead
>Japan, Italy, and Germany
>?????

>>65003684
Nah, UK won't get kicked out, they'll be internally demoted though, but I'll bet Italy and Japan let the UK pretend they're still equal in the media.

>>65003684
Japan is on too strict a timeline to afford letting Germany in on it

>>64999424
>2035 IOC is beyond optimistic for a multinational program that hasn’t even flown a demonstrator, let alone a prototype. They can set whatever deadlines they’d like, but I don’t see any way that happens when they don’t even have a finalized design yet.
Nations can start to move faster when they think there is actual, literal existential threat facing them. Asia sees what's going on in geopolitics and feels the cold winds a lot more clearly then Western Europe does (Eastern Europe also very very clearly feels it and has ever since Russia's full scale invasion). Yeah, 2035 IOC is probably a "everything goes very well date" and yeah, the "Initial" in "Initial Operational Capability" could do a great deal of work. But if they're deadly serious about it it's a focused deadline, and importantly delays are a thing no matter what the deadline. If you pick a deadline of "2045" instead that's so far out it just becomes bluesky R&D with constantly updated requirements that turns into a development black hole, and it still won't end up happening until years later regardless.

2035 is focusing but not undoable and if it ends up slipping a year or two with the home stretch in sight and a lot of shit built that's a lot better then being caught with nothing even on the horizon.

>>65004203
>Nah, UK won't get kicked out, they'll be internally demoted though, but I'll bet Italy and Japan let the UK pretend they're still equal in the media.
Yeah, with a strict timeline there isn't room to play too much in the way of games. It's better to have some UK money and tech then zero, and there are inevitably going to be parts of the fighter that won't be critical to IOC or that are modular enough that substitutes could be done in a pinch so it'd be fine to effectively give the UK a swing at if they're paying. There's no reason to burn any bridges, but neither to indulge with both "we want to play budget footsie" and also "but we want full jobs share!"

>>65004225
3 years ago I'd have fully agreed. Krauts have gotten mildly more serious about the military though, at least in places, and France has done the typical french thing. Devil is in the details but there's probably a path for Germany to join if they were sufficiently serious about it and thus solved their internal politics first.

Every time I read a thread about British military R&D, spending and procurement I feel like Simba trying to wake up Mufasa. Seeing the people that brought us mechanized infantry, tanks, sonar and radar, aircraft carriers, turbojet engines, modern combined arms doctrine reduced to… this.
>Get up Britannia. You gotta get up ( ;_;)

>>64998052
>Thanks for discrediting yourself. Give me a giggle and give us your technical definition of bankruptcy.

The UK is burning every form of real world capital there is while adding massive future liabilities to its balance sheet, hastening the day of reckoning. This also means that it will be more difficult to roll the bong national debt bonds unless higher interest rates are paid, which in turn will hasten the day of the formal explicit bankruptcy - again. I could go on but it is offtopic.

Britain will drop out of GCAP because it cant even afford the military it has right now, much less another new stealth jet when it has already bought F-35s. I think that in the end, GCAP will be Japan only, with some euros as tier 3 paypigs to get an itar free jet. I would not be surprised if Bongland eventually sells its carriers to Japan, where they will be renamed Akagi and Kaga and outfitted with a big red sun flag. I think the japanese might be interested in some bongland nuke subs too which is another thing the bongs cannot afford. The last thing the bongs will give up will be their nukes.

Everything is determined by fundamentals. And the bong fundamentals are looking very very bad while sliding towards worse. They are not yet formally bankrupt, but they are technically bankrupt, because there is no way they can fulfill their future liabilities, meaning that they have to shed a lot of them, which they will do trough a bankruptcy.

t. sweden

>>65004520
>I think that in the end, GCAP will be Japan only
Nah, Italy is tripling down on GCAP, they realized the UK has fucked themselves and so Italy is gearing up to be the primary manufacturing/assembly/maintenance hub for GCAP for all European and Middle Eastern customers.

Previously they were worried about competing with the UK, but with the recent funding issues there is basically zero chance Warton is ready to produce GCAPs by 2035.

So yeah I don't see Italy leaving now.

>>65004237
>Krauts have gotten mildly more serious about the military though
Yes yes I'm sure they've got their eyebrows raised this time.

Why does it feel like there's been an eternal panic about UK being broke and incompetent since like 2010. It is just echoes of people being butthurt about austerity...

>>65004736
Because the government has been kicking the can down the road for 30+ years and there is only so much lies they can feed people before they start seeing the truth behind the curtain.

It's more obvious than ever lately.

They wanted to increase defense spending above 2.5% GDP, so what did they do? Increase spending? Nope. Redefine what "defense" spending means to include military pensions and MI5/MI6 intelligence service budgets. Now they can tell the public defense spending went up by half a percent of GDP just like they promised without having to send a single extra pence.

>>65004720
>Yes yes I'm sure they've got their eyebrows raised this time.
They're devoting actual budget and political time to it. This is all relative to post-CW krautland for sure, but slowly there is more happening.

I mean, it's not just some magical high minded bullshit either. Self-interest is a big factor. Their auto industry and a lot of heavy manufacturing in general is in big fucking trouble and more and more of them realize it. Even more than the pepperonis they're starting to really hunt for how to fix that or what might help stem the bleeding. Military exports could be part of the answer and politics has a way of changing when lots of very needed money and jobs enters the picture. Unlike italy, germany has a debt/gdp ratio of <64%, pretty damn good by rich world standards (italy is 137%). Other countries have the will to spend, more than germany, but germany has the money to spend, and that counts for something. Of course they have their own fundamental headwinds for stuff like energy. But a path exists is all.

>>65004776
Realistically, their contribution to GCAP would be 1/3rd or less of what they would've been paying into FCAS. They're also likely getting less workshare, but they're also spending quite a bit less, so it'll probably end up working out.

Though GCAP partners have more or less signaled they wont be letting anyone in until the design freeze later this year or next year.

>>65004520
M8 you mald with the same script in every bong related thread, get a life

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>>64997553
yeah. not going to happen probably
UK is broke
borrowing costs as high as in 2008
debt 100% of GDP, debt servicing is +100 billion ponuds this year, that was before the war

pic related, the UK makes Germany look like a well run country with a responsible energy strategy
Brexit getting reversed within 10 years

>>65005243
>Brexit getting reversed within 10 years
I wish

>>65004662
Italy is more in debt than the UK is...
maybe slightly less of a social welfare state and less foreign invaders bankrupting the government...

But it's not like they are in better shape
Can always squeeze 5-10 bill a year out of a country

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>>65001350
This really highlights to me how rich the USA is. Europoors are hemming and hawing over 10 billion like they’re delinquent on rent. Meanwhile in the USA, Somali scammers in Michigan burn through 10 billion dollars with learning centers and no one notices until a teenaged YouTuber points it out

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>>65005359
Italy doesn't have the world premier welfare state that the politicians from both sides of the parlament can't touch.
Also they don't have much services, their military industry is a pretty big deal.
Some tough questions coming for the UK military.

>>65005243
>debt 100% of GDP
hey, at least its not higher than GDP

>>65005359
Yeah but italy actually has politicians willing to make tough choices, and one of those choices was to fund GCAP regardless of the economic impact, and one of the REASONS given for this was because they expect to earn back that investment over 40-50+ years of sustainment contracts on GCAP export sales. Which as discussed, the UK is more or less giving up to italy by not investing in GCAP right now .

>>65005383
UK is facing a $28B budget shortfall, so a multi-billion dollar GCAP contract would be a hard pill to swallow in the current climate.

>>64997553
Probably a retarded question, but how did Japan end up as the only country who can realistically build a sixth generation fighter jet (apart from the burgers and maybe the chinks)? Everyone always talks doom and gloom about their fucked up demography and never fully recovering after the bubble burst, and yet somehow they're the most likely candidate to actually commit to and follow through on independent sixth gen development dreams? How the fuck does the country whose had to slowly claw their way into remilitarizing their SDFs end up ahead of all of fucking Europe, at least in this regard?

I guess the Frogs are the best Euro candidate for actually building a domestic sixth gen, but they seemed more dependent on Kraut money in FCAS than the Nips are dependent on Bong tech/money/anything in GCAP.

>>65005584
Frankly japan just got lucky in some ways.

The US stopped japan's domestic aircraft development efforts post-WWII, but by the early 1950s japan was making strides in civil aviation, and by the mid-late 1950s japan was being "allowed" to produce F-86's for the newly formed JASDF.

They'd continue producing licensed american designs of planes/engines/etc for a few decades, including the Mitsubishi F-1 in the late 1970s.

By the 1980s japan would be manufacturing the F-15J domestically, and by the 1990s japan would be translating the F-16 into the Mitsubishi F-2.

In the early 2000s japan wanted to buy the F-22 and do similarly to what they did with the F-15J and F-2 before it, buy an american design, assemble it japan with japanese sensors and software, etc.
The US refused and japn took this personally.

They then decided they would try to apply the last ~60+ years of aircraft development they'd done to a wholly domestic fighter design with no help from the americans. Which is what started the X-2 ShinShin demonstrator program, and would eventually lead to the F-X program, which would eventually merge with Tempest to form GCAP.


Basically japan has been preparing for this day for coming up on 30 years and had relevant industry experience from the 40+ years before that.

>>65004736
de yookay is so incompetently-run that it is being mogged by some warsaw pact countries

>>65005584
Without the immense drain of third world migration, the government has extra money to spend on things

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>>65005458
That’s nothing. Your country is like a little babby

>>65005584
We don’t really have a great working definition of a 6th generation fighter and what would separate it from the 5th. However from what we have heard about GCAP it doesn’t seem to be the most ambitious of the new fighter programs and may fit more on the higher end of 5th generation. There so far hasn’t been a particularly standout technology announced for GCAP to put it ahead of current fighters. Variable cycle engines have been stated not to be a design goal, all renders so far show rudder actors instead of a tailless design, and while it should function as a drone quarterback that capability is being back ported to current service 5th generation fighters, so it’s difficult to argue that a touchscreen drone interface suddenly makes an F-22 6th generation.

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>>65005612
Just to add onto what you said, all the American companies saw the deals Japan was getting as unfair with Japan getting a bunch of tech transfers, but when it came time for the reverse, Japan would cite their export laws as preventing any critical tech sharing with the US. This even prevented some civil use stuff being denied if it had potential "military applications". The big one was the F-15J. MDD wanted an updated EW package for the F-15 fleet, but didn't want to be the ones to fund development. They got congress to restrict the F-15s EW package when they were sold to Japan with the hopes that Japan would be forced to pay MDD to develop a new package that wasn't restricted by congress that MDD could then integrate on US airframes. Japan instead said fuck that and developed the J/APR-4 for the F-15J, MDD got pissed and demanded they hand over the data on it, but Japan told them to kick rocks because it was against their constitution. This lead to the F-2 program where US companies were out for blood. When Japan went the route of heavily modifying a US design rather than buying off the shelf, they refused to sell Japan the F-16 avionics package and FBW again hoping that Japan would be forced to pay US companies for a new system. Once again Japan used their T-2CCV FBW testbed to develop a new avionics package for the F-2 from the ground up that once again had a more advanced FBW system than the F-16. US companies trying to sabotage Japanese aerospace forced Japan to get experience developing whole EW architecture and avionics packages which are some of the most restrictive subsystems outside of engines. The US absolutely ruined the kino that could have been with a Japanese aerospace industry left to flourish on it's own, but they also did an absolute dog shit job by still forcing Japan to develop all of the key industries required anyways. Same shit with missiles too. Refused to sell Japan AIM-9Ms Japan developed AAM-3s instead.

>>65005724
The biggest standout capability of GCAP that we "know" is hard fact is the power generation target.

They're targeting 300-400kW per engine, for a total of 600-800kW of installed power generation capacity.

To compare to F-47/NGAP engines and they're supposedly targeting 500-600kW per engine for 1-1.2MW total for the airframe.


That would put GCAP at ~3-6x the power generation of an F-35, and about 1/2 to 2/3rds of the F-47.

>>65005458
Budget deficit for the US is 1.8 trillion

>>65005772
That’s at least a good point in its favor then, since my understanding is that the power and cooling systems on the F-35 have been one of the largest persistent issues, possibly behind only Lockheed’s software woes

>>65005819
Well Japan already demonstrated 180kW per engine like 7 or 8 years ago, and rolls Royce demonstrated like 1MW on a test bench setup in 2022 for the E2SG, which is the technology being integrated into GCAP (though again, smaller scale 300-400kW, maybe 500kW).

So yeah it's a good bet it'll easily outperform the F-35 for power generation.

>>65005458
out of a budget that's over 1.5 trillion
going into the red a few billion isn't going to make a dent
they spend more on benefits for welsh that don't want to move to get a job

>>65005848
Realized I left an important part in my head and not in the post, I’d been thinking mostly in regards to upgradability and how the F-35 seems to be effectively maxed out without the ECU and probably a change to the PTMS. So it’s good that they’re building in that power margin since that should presumably help differentiate it from 5th generation aircraft. Any word on if they’re targeting a DEW system of some kind? I know thats been a common wishlist item since the first spitballing on American 6th generation fighters started in the early 2010s

>>65005898
From what I understand DEW was being floated for GCAP, but as a far out upgrade item, not a capability baked in from day 1.

E2SG similarly supposedly has a roadmap to 1MW per engine, which is the power level you'd need to seriously consider DEWs, but that would likely be sometime around 2050.

>>64997585
Reason is beyond warriortards seething mind.
Heaven forbid there may be justifications for delays, or internal arguments regarding IP, delays are pretty much inevitable for projects of this scale, but luckily the current government appears to be quite good at fixing problems I have pretty good odds it's get sorted and his seething will be for nought.

>>65005921
Are you saying a plane would need 1MW total power or per engine for a DEW? Because if it’s the latter that is a lot higher than I’d thought. I know they have significant cooling draws on top of power requirements, but I’d thought it would be a lot simpler to integrate something in the power class of the lasers the Army is currently using for example.

>>65005956
So the biggest issue in these jets is cooling for the power generation, and it's looking like a large part of that cooling will be coming from the fuel, they're planning to pump the fuel through the engine to cool the engine down then pump the hot fuel back out into the fuel tank (wings) where it can radiate away the heat.

This means the longer you operate the jet, the less fuel you have, the less cooling you have available for your power generation, which means you have less power available to use.

True "hard kill" anti-missile DEWs at the moment are in the 300kW range at a minimum, and the "good" ones are 500-1000kW. That's a massive chunk of the power budget to have to devote to a DEW, even if it's not always being used, you still need to have a significant amount of power on tap to use that kind of system with any degree of regularity.


All of that to say, you'd probably want well over 1MW in total power before you can consider a DEW system, and to do it comfortably you'd probably want 1.5MW to 2MW, around that 1MW per engine number I mentioned.

The US could probably squeeze it into the F-47's 1-1.2MW vision, but it would be a tight fit in that power envelope.

>>65005946
>but luckily the current government appears to be quite good at fixing problems I have pretty good odds it's get sorted and his seething will be for nought
Don't you Bongs still have more admirals than warships? I don't have a lot in faith in you lot with regards to making "smart" military decisions when most signs point towards the post-Cold War spending cuts/military decline continuing to trend downward as it has for the past three decades.

>>65006454
No one in the current MoD has the balls to cut what needs cutting. The MPs also have no balls and don't want to be labeled as the MP who "killed" the royal navy or the british army.

>>64997553
The UK's collapse into a third world shithole has achieved terminal velocity.

>>64998017
>The UK's finances are in significantly better shape than those in Italy or Japan
AHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA oh man

>>65006035
I see, appreciate the run down. The numbers make a lot more sense after hearing they’d be mounting the same sort of laser they’re putting on ships, not the sort the Army has

>>65005946
>internal arguments regarding IP
We know the argument (roughly).

Internally the UK wants to keep their BAE PYRAMID open system architecture OS a black box where Italy and Japan can design their own software applications that run on that OS, but don't actually get access to the OS source code. Japan and Italy think this is too much like the F-35 program where they can't actually modify things. The UK argues it's too sensitive for them to show to Japan/Italy.

Japan and Italy are trying to either get the UK to agree to open their black box up, or get them to agree to fund an open software system with Italy/Japan.

At the moment the UK wants Japan and Italy to accept the black box software and pay for the development of it for a few years while the UK pays for AUKUS/Dreadnaught first.

Italy and Japan aren't buying it.

>>65006602
It's not EXACTLY the same sort as itll only be expected to fire a handful of times, not repeatedly in a prolonged engagement.

>>65004720
Germany is gonna raise their BW budget in 2029 to roughly what the UK+France have combined rn. 153 billion € which will be 3.5% of their GDP.

>>65007974
Is that actually going to happen though or is that just a wishlist item?

>>65008117
Actually happening, the government has passed the medium term structural spending plan 2025-2029 already meaning it's legislative binding right now.

>>65008549
I'm reading that some economists are projecting it'll be hard to actually hit 3.5%, even with it passing the legislature.

With several of them saying to expect ~3-3.1% at best without other measures being taken.

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>>65005848
IHI's program is MEAPP. They did 250kW in a generator that could fit in the tail cone of an actual engine. The RR PGS1 on the other hand hit 1mW, but is the size of an entire engine. It will be about finding that middle ground between those two.

>>65005050
>M8 you mald with the same script in every bong related thread, get a life

You will be unclogging toilets in Poland in 10 years while keeping your family alive with remittances of foreign hard curreny.

>>65006579
>The UK's collapse into a third world shithole has achieved terminal velocity.

Yeah I dont take them seriously any more. Enormous amounts of shittalk and money promised while fundamentals are awful and getting worse. Bonglers are very similar to indians in this aspect. Saaar! We bonglers are going to join superduperultra project XXX to build stronk plane but we cannot redeem the project fee right now! Maybe next year! Saaar! You buy our bongler black box for your shared tech project because we project too!

One of the bongler problems is that in 5 years or so they will have problems keeping the power on 24/7 because of their total grid conversion to intermittent green energy. And not just that, they will also have problems delivering potable water because Thatcher privatizations in the 1980s and zero maintenance done after that. And all other kind of infrastructure is also shit.

They are also terrible dependent on imports of food, energy and just about everything to keep their overpopulated island alive. Check the euro grid map to see how much HVDC the bongs import. If they dont generate export income, they will starve and freeze in the dark. How are they going to do exports with such poor fundamentals?


But we bonglers, we stronk, we had Bongladesh imperivm 200 years ago, we gotta have multiple types of stealth fighter and carrier and nuke! Its really like you are talking to an indian. Bonglers even had a pajeet PM and they eat tons of curry. Indians also own their steel and car industry.

t. sweden

>>65008709
>t. sweden
I like taking the piss out of Bongs because I'm a burger, what did the English do to the Swedes?

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>>65008709

>>65006592
The UK has the highest GNI per capita, highest median wealth per adult, highest real growth and lowest debt to GDP of the three.

>>65008610
So what exactly is the UK bringing to GCAP?


Previously I thought it was the engine, but that isn't true
Then I thought it was E2SG, but now that might not be true either.

>>65008610
The late engine concept model showcased at FIA2024 has two generators, one in the inlet cone and the other between LPC and HPC, looks like they are combining those.

>>65009428
>So what exactly is the UK bringing to GCAP?
Branding, integration experience, NATO standards, global maintenance/supply chain presence, and a known figure to be the face of your export sales.

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>>65009992
Not combining the RR and IHI one as the RR one is fucking huge for LBP engine applications. Maybe 2 of the MEAPP in each engine which would hit 1mW.

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>>65008940
>The UK has the highest GNI per capita, highest median wealth per adult, highest real growth and lowest debt to GDP of the three.

Britain is very much like Russia in the sense that Russia has front window cities like St Petersburg and Moscow and then its dilapidation and decay everywhere else. Britain has London and then its dilapidation and decay everywhere else not connected to London. If you look at pic related you will see that the 2nd richest area in Britain is the South East which exists to serve London. Manchester, #3, is also a London proxy.

Britain is a caste society much like India. The upper caste lives in London and doesn't give a shit about the rest meaning most of Britain is like Romania with more rain.

Some american claimed that Britain is like Harry Potter without magic on some other board and he got roasted by angry bonglers because it was true. Americans sometimes says the most profound things out of the blue without even realizing it, one american once told me that a woman is the life support system around a vagina and I still think that is one of the deepest simplest truths I have ever heard.

>>65008823
>I like taking the piss out of Bongs because I'm a burger, what did the English do to the Swedes?

Because these guys are frauds. You should care too, unless you think its ok for you to be the mark, because you will be the mark if you dont develop an instinct for spotting frauds. Britain isnt a knowledge based industrial country. Its a financial services country. A bank and stock market with an army. They lack the necessary real world physical industrial infrastructure backbone to be more than patent trolls at this stage in their decay. I dont really get what they are doing and I dont think they do either. Their elite is basically doing an exit scam with no exit plans. They are incompetent nepo babies.

>>65011906
> Their elite is basically doing an exit scam with no exit plans. They are incompetent nepo babies.
The pisser is that it’s happening in the US too, it’s just that we’re going to take long enough to bleed to death that the horse may learn to sing, to borrow a line from 1001 Arabian Nights.

bump

FCAS sisters, we're so back!

>>65015509
Lol no

If anything this likely gives Germany a better chance of securing more actual workshare from GCAP if they were to join.

>>65010472
Isn't it scalable?
I thought RR demonstrated an embedded generator in Orpheus too.

>>65016384
>I thought RR demonstrated an embedded generator in Orpheus too.
I don't think they ever gave numbers

>>65015569
Imagine taking in the country that killed FCAS by not paying to replace the country trying to kill GCAP by not paying and actually giving them workshare. The only way to actually make a non-American fifth gen is for France to join GCAP, but France and Japan are both too autistic for that to work out. Instead they'll both try and go their own way and both projects will either fail or deliver a 4.75 gen in 20 years.

>>65016509
I have full faith in both France and Japan to deliver, Japan more than France on account of them actually having a neighbor they're concerned with fighting. France will get to it -eventually- because they no longer have kraut money to build it, but they legitimately care about keeping their military tech independent so that ensures they'll build some Rafale successor at some point. Frogs and Krauts are prima donnas but the Krauts particularly so since they have no institutional expertise at all on building modern fighter aircraft, backing out of FCAS guarantees them either buying American or French or Japanese for the like the rest of the century until they maybe decide to build their own thing for 7th gen. And that's only of they START rebuilding the base needed for them to actually design and make a modern fighter jet.

>>65002736
>“junior” member
To be fair this time the wops are doing like 90% of the sensors, ISANKE and other 6th gen high tech stuff. Leonardo found their niche.

>>65005359
It matter less considering they are in third place in the world by gold reserves, having 8 times the tonnes of gold the UK has. Italy can get by much more debt than the UK.

>>65019111
Nah, they're sharing that role with Mitsubishi who is providing a large number of the sensors.

>>65019111
>>65019197
I was really banking on the bongs' and nips' shared cultural autisms syngergizing to deliver on GCAP, never imagined that the Italians would work harder and play friendlier than the Bri'ish.
>we won't live in a world where an english princess and a japanese prince are paired in an arranged marriage
>we might live in a world where a couple of mafia and yakuza heirs get hitched

>>65019256
Hell at the current rate we could end up with a jet that's ~65% japanese, ~25% italian, and ~10% british.

Just another day of Russian shills seething at the Main Bastards

>>65019457
...that's what you think this thread is?

lol


lmao even

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>>65011906
Lmao, this is actually very good shilling. A whole lot of bullshit seasoned with just enough facts to make it look believable, even if the facts presented (regional wealth) have zero to do with the claims presented (industrial strength).
The fact is the bong aerospace industry is a monster, second only to the US. They are the only people who have a chance at pulling off building something comparable to what the US can build.
I doubt this guy is swedish, since it looks like he's trying to start a divide and conquer shitpost fight.

>>65019464
Yeah, I think it is Russian shilling from someone who is a skilled shill, see >>65019479

Imagine going onto a weapons nerd board and claiming such bullshit about the second largest aerospace industry in the world and not expecting to get called out.

>>65019479
The problem is the entire UK aerospace industry is centered around civilian aerospace, and the Typhoon.

They have almost zero industrial capacity for 5th/6th gen aerospace manufacturing, and what they DO have for 5th gen is just minor F-35 parts, that are then shipped to Italy/Texas/Japan for actual assembly into the airframe.

>>65019494
Stop bullshitting! I don't have the figures immediately to hand, but Rolls Royce is one of the leading aerospace engine manufacturers in the world. Don't make me get the actual figures, because I absolutely will.
Additionally the bong aerospace industry is deeply embedded in supply chains all over the globe with hundreds of companies, producing shit nobody else can. There's a reason my boss goes over there like 3 times a year.

>>65019494
>>65019510
Oh yeah, if you're in the west there's basically one singular ejection seat manufacturer, and that's Martin Baker. Collins is a close second, and believe me that hurts to say. Russian seats are strictly if you don't really care whether your pilots live or die.

>>65019510
>>65019522

Lol you're just missing the point, are pretending to be retarded, or are actually retarded. I can't decide which yet.

I'm agreeing the UK IS the 2nd in the world behind the US for aerospace, but that doesn't give them any advantage when we're talking about building a 6th gen fighter.

The UK has basically ZERO current 6th gen manufacturing capability, and they're refusing to spend the money to upgrade BAE's factory at Warton in order to build GCAP, unless they lay down ~$2B in the next 6-12 months to upgrade Warton the UK literally won't even be able to build GCAP even if they wanted to.


Also, still have zero idea why you're bringing up russia.

>>65019525
>Despite having a MASSIVE aerospace sector, with tech that is very close to and in some niche areas surpasses the US, they can't build a 6th gen because... THEY JUST CAN'T ALRIGHT!!
I want you to imagine I posted a soijak screeching, the most humiliating you can think of. Because that screeching soijak is you.
Then put a ushanka on it.

>>65019479
>>65019489
>>65019510
yeah it's armatard, he has an obsession with trying to shit on the UK at every opportunity. If he's not getting paid by Russia, he should be. He tended to shill for Russian equipment before getting buckbroken by the opening salvoes of the Ukraine war.

He's actually got a little more civil since he's obviously started paying for a chatgpt sub to make his posts a little more informed, but it's still easy to see it's him because he's trying to argue people round to his preconceived, unchanging position rather than having a neutral, honest discussion on capability or future project direction.

>>65019541
Anon, they don't have the hardware to build 5th or 6th gen airframes, all of their factory space at Warton is filled with '90s era equipment for an 80's era airframe.

To build GCAP would require replacing ALL of that equipment with new modern robotic assisted assembly lines at the cost of a few billion pounds and several years of physical work setting up the actual factory floor.

They're currently NOT funding that (read the OP). And in fact the Warton facility is INSTEAD talking about continuing with Typhoon work into the early 2030s (instead of replacing the assembly line with the shit needed to actually build/assemble GCAP).

I'm not saying the UK lacks the ability to DESIGN a 5th or 6th gen fighter, but they most certainly lack the ability to actually BUILD one.

Cameri and Nagoya, where Italy and Japan are currently upgrading their existing 5th gen airframe production lines to produce GCAP airframes are at this point a year ahead of the UK, and that's assuming the UK actually decides to pay for the Warton facility upgrade, something they haven't actually committed to yet.


Do you really think a '90s era assembly line that is slated to pump out Typhoons until 2031-32 is MAGICALLY going to pump out GCAP airframes within a few years WITHOUT a multi-billion pound investment from the MoD?

>>65019565
Your entire argument is sitting on the assumption that the UK is going to drag one of their biggest industries, one of the few they are actually a world leader in, behind the woodpile and put two into the back of it's head?
My man, you are a clown. But I get it, you have to post this nonsense. It's this or a meatwave. I understand the struggle brother.

Lol, just kidding I hope you get sent to Ukraine and bleed out in agony after being droned.

>>65019589
Oh and by the way, because I need to get back to work, I'll drop the tell this Russian fag gave away that he was Russian before he seethes about it again.
> A bank and stock market with an army.
The "gas station with an army" meme really burns at Russians, it makes them seethe like nothing else. Despite (or maybe because) it's actually true. So he just had to try and turn it around when he was seething about the bongs, like a psychological compulsion to expunge the psychic injury or something. And Russians in particular LOVE to pull that kind of, haha switched it back on you bullshit. Just like all Americans are temporarily embarrassed millionaires, all Russians like to imagine themselves as temporarily inebriated Tolstoys.
When you see shit like that, 99% chance you're talking to a Russian.

>>65019589
So then what have the last 8 months of delay been?


They're just happy to hold up the entire program because they can't figure out how to sign a fucking budget?

The treasury is FORCING them to cut something, and the industrial side of GCAP is looking more and more likely to be on the chopping block.

The fact it's gone on THIS long with no funding for GCAP is already seeing Italy and Japan getting ready to snap up workshare.

Italian budget was approved last month, Japanese budget just got approved this week and goes into affect on april 1st. That budget is expected to pay for a lot of shit the UK was supposed to be paying for, and guess what? When Japan pays for it, they're not paying to build the manufacturing line in the UK, they're paying to move that work to japan.

The longer the UK isn't paying, the more of this work italy and japan are going to buy up. Edgewing doesn't HAVE to get paid by GIGO (the trinational organization), the companies can get paid directly from the national members (italy and Japan can fund things by themselves if needed).

I am british by the way (>>64990873), matter how much you want to pretend i'm some Russian shill. I just don't buy the PR bullshit you retards seem to lap up as if it's fact.

>>65019613
NTA but your argument IS super shaky. You're trying to make out that it's some desperate budget situation unique to tempest when it's EVERYTHING that's getting delayed by the DIP. Yeah, the Treasury and Cabinet are at odds on funding. Big fuckin whoop, they always are. It's a big big big fucking leap to assume that this will result in the UK withdawing from GCAP though rather than cutting back defence infrastructure spend or something that doesn't have masses of poltiical eyes on it and risks international geopolitical fallout.

Also you're clearly armatard, you've tried this "proofs" posting shit before, nobody buys it.

>>65019877
Lol, I am the one Armatard/warriortard/gookshill used to constantly call the weebshill because i've been talking up the F-X program for ~10 years at this point on /k/.

If you go search through the archives you can see me directly arguing with him for HUNDREDS of posts over a ~5 year period at least.

Beyond that, all of the statements from the UK lately back up my assumptions.

Andy Pearce (the MoD’s Director General for Finance) stated:

> "We're trying to avoid development, so we just go shopping instead of developing."

This pretty much DIRECTLY calls out GCAP in everything but name, as it's one of the ONLY novel development programs the UK is currently involved with. Saying they should look to go shopping instead of developing says to me at least they're very much looking to cut back on active development programs, of which GCAP is the biggest one outside of AUKUS-SSN and Dreadnought, both of which were positioned higher than the GCAP program according to the SDR.

So if they're not cutting development of AUKUS-SSN, and Dreadnought isn't being paired back, where else can they cut major money from? The industrial side of GCAP. Mainly the larger production lines that will require years to set up and billions of pounds to fund. Short term economic savings in trade for losing long term production ability.


Maybe the DIP will get magically signed with full funding for GCAP, but the writing is on the walls and currently at least it's not looking likely to change anytime soon.

>>65019932
>>65019877
Also, i've said repeatedly the UK is too involved to leave GCAP entirely; they'll probably even get to save face and pretend they're still an equal partner, but their workshare IS being eaten into and they're highly unlikely to be able to afford an actual final assembly line at Warton at the current pace of the program.

>>65019932
I think you're way off with that one, it's more likely to be Ajax they're talking about and referring to future Army procurement as GCAP has been pretty successful so far.

>>65019965
The context for the quote is much broader than Ajax though.

Ajax is a $6B program that is 90%+ paid for already.

GCAP is a multi-decade program that is going to cost $10-20B in the next 10 years, and $50B+ beyond that. They can save $10B+ today by cutting most of the industrial side of GCAP, then they play it off as the UK focusing on the IP/integration, not paltry manufacturing jobs.

Further National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority (NISTA) just updated its "RED" rating for GCAP on March 19, 2026.
Red means "successful delivery of the project appears to be unachievable".

NISTA specifically cited the "lack of a signed Defence Investment Plan (DIP)" and "industrial capacity bottlenecks" as the primary reasons for the rating

>>65020000
It's saying Ajax was such a shitshow that they're going to make the army buy COTS from now on, not that Ajax will be canceled. So stuff like drones and networked systems that are in the planning stages are on the block not stuff that's already committed to. Maybe the navy will have to take a haircut on their UUV plans

Also really? You're going to pull the chicken and egg on the red NISTA rating here? You really think the published DIP will cancel GCAP citing a red NISTA that's only red because DIP hasn't been signed yet is a sound chain of logic?

In any case i'm sure it'll not be too long before it's unblocked. The shitter is the 5% 10y gilts like I said before otherwise it'd probably be already resolved by just slapping the spend on the debt pile.

>>65020082
Again, I HAVE NEVER SAID GCAP IS BEING CANCELLED STOP BEING A FAGGOT NIGGER.


Go fuck yourself if you can't even argue with me in good faith.

I am saying they will cut the INDUSTRIAL side of GCAP, IE, they wont be building the plane itself in Warton.

They'll still build components, and they'll still do the high tech component manufacturing for sensors/E2SG/Ceramic tiles and other advanced shit.

But they're not going to be building airframes unless they FULLY fund GCAP in the next ~3 months, and the only real window of opportunity for that is ~june to mid july, before the summer recess kicks in.

>>65020101
>>65020082
Also, the NISTA industrial capacity claim is 100% talking about the fact Warton literally CAN'T build airframes for GCAP right now and without immediately significant funding, it wont be ready to do so by the time GCAP will be entering service.

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>>65020116
It's still the same argument repeated ad nauseum:
>Nah bro, they won't invest in an industry vital to national security and national pride and that brings £30b a year with the potential to add 5-10 more depending on how GCAP goes because.... THEY JUST WON'T OK!
Fuck off you Russian piece of shit, or at least find a new shill line.

>>65021726
Again, if they're going to do it, why haven't they?

Every month they delay at this point just pisses Japan and Italy off more, and it's just giving them more and more opportunities to buy out the workshare from the UK.

Your entire argument relies on the UK doing something its delayed doing for coming up on a year. The DIP was supposed to be signed in July of 2025, they're legally barred from signing the DIP until mid May at the moment, and they're likely to spend a few weeks at a minimum before getting the DIP signed, if they manage to do it at all.

So yeah, the earliest it'll get signed is June 2026, 11 months later.
And you want to pretend this will result in ZERO industrial consequences for the UK.

Riiiiiiiight, and I'm the shill?

>>65021744
You're lying again when you say Warton hasn't been upgraded since the 90s. A cursory internet search reveals they've invested heavily in 3D printing, cobotics and intelligent workstations. None of that is 90s technology.
Additionally they're right now expanding the site to allow for more work from Turkish eurofighters, but why would they need to expand the site to do that if they already built them? Because the main areas are getting prepared for GCAP is the only answer.
I wish jannies would ban russian and brown niggers like you who just come on here and tell flat lies.

>>65021757
Warton has a "factory of the future" experimental test lab, thats it. It's a tiny area of the factory where they're working on the Tempest flying demonstrator. It's basically their pitch to the MoD showing what is NEEDED for GCAP.

To build 100+ GCAP airframes at a tactical rate, BAE needs to scale that experimental lab into a full-scale factory floor. As of today, that massive scaling project is what's currently unfunded and stalled because of the missing DIP.

>>65021757
>>65021787
Also, for the Turkish typhoons, BAE is expanding Warton's support and training capacity (simulators and hangars) to handle the 20 Turkish Typhoons. They're not expanding the actual factory floor production line.

>>65021787
>>65021789
>Hah, you caught me in a lie, well I'll just make up some more!
Dude, I've caught you twice now, I'm not going to bother doing internet searches to catch you again in some new horseshit. Fuck. Off.

>>65021795
Its not a lie though, YOU'RE lying when you imply an experimental test lab can build a production aircraft and it's exactly the same thing as the entire Warton factory floor.

Does BAE currently have the funding to build GCAP at Warton? No. So why lie?

Just because they bought some neat toys for Tempest testing doesn't mean they're ready to scale it for production.

The FACTS of today are BAE isn't scaling Warton because it hasn't been funded, and it can't be funded until the DIP gets signed, which can't happen before May/June at the earliest. And that's assuming they find the money for this program, which after 9-10+ months of delays is unlikely.

> The DIP is now late to the point of farce. Ministers claim this reflects their desire to get it right rather than on time however the public and the defence sector have a right to expect both.

> What is clear over the last year is that with every draft iteration the MOD produces, the Treasury tells them to think again. This reveals an alarming disconnect at the heart of government presenting severe and enduring consequences for defence

> Then we come to the delay to the defence investment plan, which is simply unconscionable with not one war under way, but two. When the Government published the strategic defence review last year, they delayed most of the decisions on equipment capabilities to a subsequent defence investment plan, which we were promised would be published in the autumn. We were then faithfully promised it would be published by Christmas, and here we are in late March, all promises broken, and there is still no DIP. Ministers have been claiming for months that they have been working flat-out on this plan. What would have happened if they had not been trying?

> The reality is that we still do not have this document, because the Ministry of Defence is totally and utterly at war with His Majesty’s Treasury. That vital intergovernmental relationship has effectively broken down, and the Prime Minister is simply too weak to bang heads together and force the plan to be published.

>>65019479
>The fact is the bong aerospace industry is a monster, second only to the US.

The bongler aerospace industrys size is inflated by multi national companies having their HQs in Bongladesh.

Local bongler aerospace industry is dying if you look at fundamentals beyond the bongler aerospace industry itself. I give it ten years, then all of it will be either sold abroad or scuttled in bankruptcies. You cant run an aerospace industry on green power and Bongladesh is going to have grid crashes and rolling brownouts by 2030 because of pure physical reasons not accounted for in the quant financial modelling that guides the Bongladesh deep state.

To be competitive in aerospace you need to constantly invest in production and staff. The bonglers are not doing anything like that. The Bongladesh government is technically bankrupt. The bongler infra and instutitions that support the aerospace industry are in an advanced state of decay. The jeets are going to end up buying local bongler aerospace firms just like they bought the Bongladesh car and steel industry. Then Rolls Royce will be HQd in Mumbai.

>>65019479
>I doubt this guy is swedish, since it looks like he's trying to start a divide and conquer shitpost fight.

Herrn är i svårt behov av en tarmsköljning för han är full av skit.

I project a 25% probability of the bonglers having food riots in about 18 months due to consequences of the present global situation. There are severe consequences of being import dependent in a global shortage situation. You bonglers have nothing essential to trade. We swedes make toilet paper for 100 million people. We have expensive soft smooth toilet paper which we sell to the french and italians and sandpaper like toilet paper that we sell to bonglers and irish because they are poor. No amount of bongler shittalk can overcome physical reality.

t. sweden

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>>65021915
>I project a 25% probability of the bonglers having food riots in about 18 months due to consequences of the present global situation
The UK is a food exporter.

>>65021939
>The UK is a food exporter.

Yeah, of kelp flour and other niche stuff like jellied eels. In general foodstuffs, the UK is an importer.

>>65019256
>couple of mafia and yakuza heirs get hitched
Mafia is mostly a southern thing. Anything related to big companies, technology, firearms etc is a northen italian thing.

>>65021915
>Herrn är i svårt behov av en tarmsköljning för han är full av skit.
peak google translate

>>65025504
Yup, it's why they're building the GCAP assembly line in Cameri.

About as far north italy as you can get.

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/16461655

Canada looking to join GCAP as an observer (for now).

Bump

>>64997553
>pride themselves on having a robust economy and strong finances
>can't be arsed to sit down and write a budget to pay their fair share in a group project
Perfidious fucking Albion strikes again.

Contract by partner nations signed:
https://www.edgewing.com/article/gcap-contract-edgewing

Joint company producing GCAP will be called "Edgewing"

>>65035917
Looks like Japan and Italy are throwing the UK a bone. They scrounged up around $700M to fund the program until June 30th. (enough to pay for the program during Purdah, and give parliament time to pass the DIP in may/June before the summer recess).

The UK didn't sign the DIP and didn't release full GCAP funding yet, so all of this is coming from Italy/Japan.

>>65035966
>>65035917
Kek and because of purdah none of the UK government officials can brag about it or try to claim it was their accomplishment.

>>65036002
Yeah the timing of this was key.

Japan just had their budget for the year go live yesterday which unlocked a ton of funding for GCAP, and the first thing they do is cover the british portion of the program that had been unfunded for ~4 months already).

Makes the UK look retarded, and they can't even cry about it publicly due to Purdah.

>>65035917
>>65035966
We are watching the birth of post-national defense procurement. Why even bother getting the UK government's approval?

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https://www.ft.com/content/c5b18380-b11d-4e90-af41-e07fa0908e1a

>>65035966
>>65036032
>all of this is coming from Italy/Japan.
Incorrect, the only one looking retarded here is you.

from the ft article:
"The MoD said the contract “covers critical delivery work and will maintain the key activities, enabling the programme to progress to a full international contract”. It is jointly funded by the UK, Japan and Italy, with costs shared reflecting the work carried out in each country. "

>>65036420
Anon, that's just because they're rolling the previous 2B pound contract from 2023 into this, it's Italy/Japan injecting the fresh money to keep it going until June.

GIGO is using this as a loophole to get around the UK's treasury, which hasn't released a single extra pound.

>>65036420
Italy/Japan have been begging the UK to sign the multi-year development contract.

instead we get a 90 day bridge contract that conveniently covers the period of pre-election silence, and gives the UK ~45 days after that to sign the DIP.

Not sure what to tell you, if you honestly think this was a joint decision the UK made with Italy/Japan, you're probably too retarded to understand how these contracts and programs work.

>>65036423
Look dude, I don't know what AI shit you're using to hallucinate these repeated statements on sources of funding within a few mins of me posting every time but I'm going to trust the MoD saying they're ponying up the money over you saying "trust me bro the UK is finished" repeatedly on the internet.

I for one am looking forward to a cool jet being made by a cool consortium of countries.

>>65036434
Yes, this is obviously a bridging contract to tide the programme over while the DIP is published, there's no dispute there.

I'm saying you can't say "this was definitely Japan putting the money up and the UK is going to withdraw/get kicked out of the programme" when there's a MoD statement saying otherwise.

>>65036447
>>65036440
Anon, the UK treasury legally CAN'T release that sort of money right now during purdah.

It's not something they can hide, there is no mechanism that allows the UK to award public money of this amount WITHOUT saying how much was allocated and to whom. The fact this is going through GIGO, and the treasury hasn't released a SINGLE pound to GIGO recently tells you that this money isn't coming from the UK's treasury.

And if it WAS being paid for by the UK's treasury, they're breaking TONS of election laws.

>>65036508
>>65036447
>>65036440
Legally it could at most be ~£5M. That's the limit for the treasury to award contract during purdah.

So of the £686M, £5M could come from the UKs treasury without any legal problems.

>>65036508
Look dude, you are way too caught up on this procedural shit.

The UK is a mature democracy, they have ways around things like purdah killing off programs and you're watching it in action.

As I've been saying from the start GCAP, AUKUS and future CASD aren't going anywhere, much to the dissapointment of Russian and Chinese internet shills that would love nothing more than for us to give up on them. The MoD will finalise their repriorisation and/or the treasury will put up more money and it'll all be announced post election. Literally none of the shit you posted matters, all programs are funded until the DIP is published.

>>65036552
So who broke the law?


Since you want to claim the UK is paying, who is breaking the law right now in order to pay?


The law is explicitly clear surrounding contract awards during purdah. So fess up, who is breaking the law?

>>65028464
Canadian and his cuck chair, name a more iconic duo

>>65036626
To be fair, if canada plays their cards right they might get tagged in during the next round when the UK goes down for the count (for lack of payment).

>>65036552
It's funny as fuck to watch the sheer seethe GCAP's making.

>>65036618
>wah wah wah
Nobody is breaking any laws, retard. First of all, purdah isn't actually a law. It's a convention. Secondly the rules can be and regularly are suspended case-by-case in the national interest, which this certainly counts as.

Personally I can't wait to see what they make to show the vatniks what real engineering looks like. They'll no doubt be trying to claim a SU-57"""M"""" as sixth gen by that point

>>65036681
>Nobody is breaking any laws, retard
If the UK treasury awarded a contract, they probably broke the law. Or at least a convention.

No Permanent Secretary is going to risk their career to sign a £10B Phase 2 deal during an election when it isn't a national emergency. That’s why we’re seeing a 90-day bridge using recycled Tempest leftovers instead of a fresh Phase 2 injection.

The only "fresh" money in the 90 day contract comes from Italy/Japan, it would be wholly improper for the treasury to award a contract of that size during purdah, and any permanent secretary who DID approve that sort of contract would likely be taken to court.

>>65036788
Ok? I have no idea why you're talking about the full phase 2 contract. This has been about the bridge deal from the start. That was awarded by the GCAP GIGO, not the treasury. The GIGO aren't in the habit of publishing their accounts and if the treasury or MoD did bung them some emergency cash for this we have no way of knowing.

So all we actually know is the UK MoD said that the ~£700M has come from all partners, which is counter to what you were saying earlier that the funding from this contract has definitely 100% come from Japan and therefore "UK bad". We know nothing else about the ultimate source of those funds for the UK portion of the bridging contract and we don't need to.

They could be fresh from the treasury but not publicly announced or they could be from elsewhere in the MoD thanks to behind the scenes shuffling of budgets within the coming financial year or from underspend from last. It kind of sucks that it's not the full programme funding but the source is ultimately irrelevant because as I said before GCAP, AUKUS and future CASD aren't going anywhere so it's basically just a bit of admin to tide things over until the DIP is published.

I really don't get what your actual point is here as a result. If you're genuinely worried about procedural stuff holding the project up, i'd just say "don't" and this bridging contract proves that the programme is fine. If you're just trying to find a convoluted way to say "UK bad", you're proving you have nothing to contribute to the discussion beyond shilling and i'll say fuck off and good day to you.

>>65036892
Again, not a single cent of the £700M came from NEW funding from the treasury. It was all from the old contracts for Tempest funding that were awarded.

The only NEW money from this £700M is from Italy/Japan.

Hiding behind the PR statement as a shield to ignore this just makes you look retarded.

If new money was being injected by the Treasury, they'd have to announce it, and the exact dollar amount. The fact they haven't means none of the "new" money came from the treasury.

>>65036920
Go on the treasury website and tell me where they announce all funding for all contracts on the day they happen. It's clear you have no idea how the UK gov-financial system works and that's fine. I'll throw you a bone - it'll show up on a public spreadsheet published next month because last month's got published yesterday.

Anyway i'll reiterate my point from earlier: everything you've been saying about trying to find some procedural gotcha which will kill the project is irrelevant. The program is funded through to DIP publication, this project is not on the chopping block and so we're going to get to see a cool jet.

I get why that makes vatnik shills mad, but they can suck my dick cos it'll be real hard from looking at a cool jet.

>>65036964
Yes, they have 30 days to announce it officially. But they can't award contracts over £5M without getting the chancellor/PM involved during purdah.

If next month comes around and there is no funding announced from the treasury what excuse are you going to cook up next? Some supersekrit black budget funding that doesn't exist anywhere on the books?

>>65036972
no? I really don't understand why you're getting so mad over this.

I'll say it again, but more slowly, because your autism seems to have trouble digesting clear points:

-The project is funded through to DIP publication, at which point the money will be released to sign the full contract.
-The UK MoD has said this bridging contract is a proportional split of funding from all countries as it always has been.
-Literally who cares whether that money has come from MoD underspend elsewhere or fresh money from the treasury. We have no way of telling. Your earlier statement of it being all from Japan is therefore incorrect.
-We're going to see a cool jet
-You seem inexplicably mad about this last point.

>>65037014
> The UK MoD has said this bridging contract is a proportional split of funding from all countries as it always has been

God damn you people will buy literally any lie as long as a government official says so huh?

If you actually read the wording of what they said, they're being sneaky jews about it.

> is jointly funded by the UK, Japan and Italy, with costs shared reflecting the work carried out in each country.

the words "with costs shared reflecting the work carried out in each country" imply an equal split, but it's worded in a way to leave it open to interpretation.

Basically the treasury wants you to THINK it's 100% equally split funding/work, but they're not actually saying that (because it would be a lie and they'd get called out later when the receipts become public).

>>65037061
and here we are, full circle. I will direct you back to my first post here: >>65036440

I trust the UK MoD a lot more than you, random internet dude who suspiciously always seems to want to talk the conversation around to "UK bad". Particularly hilarious that you're trotting out a line of "do you REALLY trust the org i've been shitting on for being too honest and rule abiding for the whole thread", capped it off with a casual little bit of jew hate to really shore up your credibility on the tasmanian haberdashery forum, you read your orientation notes well.

In any case, please continue to argue around in circles at your own leisure by rereading the thread over and over. It'll have the same effect of any replies I'd make from now on. I'm going to go think about a cool jet fighter

>>65037118
The stupid thing is that I REALLY want to see this jet too, I just don't want to the UK to fuck it up by slowing it down for years.

Every month of delay today is probably 3+ months of actual delay to the in-service date. Any delay today compounds into the future. The UK thinks they can slow it down for 12-24 months while they figure out AUKUS/Dreadnought, but that will likely lead to a ~5 year delay to the GCAP in-service date.

The UK doesn't care because they have Typhoons that'll be in service until the mid 2040s, but Japan's F-2 fleet is already on its last legs and needs replacing by 2035.

To the UK this is an industrial program, to japan this is sovereign survival. They're not at all the same level of priority for each other.

I'm not even saying the UK will get kicked out of the program, they're just going to lose design authority and the ability to actually build the jet themselves if they keep delaying the money and allow Italy/Japan to move forward with development contracts. Article 20 I think in the GIGO treaty allows the steering committee (where all 3 nations have an equal seat) to essentially remove one of the parties from deciding workshare contracts if they're not paying for their 33% share of the program. If the UK hasn't fully funded the GCAP program by the July GCAP summit, I can see Japan/Italy removing the UK's ability to vote on workshare decisions, now Japan/Italy are still going to give workshare to RR/BAE/Leonardo UK, but it's going to be heavily slanted on design contracts, not manufacturing contracts except for highly specialized parts that simply can't be built somewhere else. This will likely see the UKs workshare drop from the original ~33% split to probably ~10-20%. Still significant, and billions of dollars worth of contracts, but less than what the UK would've had if the treasury fully funded GCAP. And again, they'll likely be losing a large chunk of the manufacturing stuff later.

>>65037192
Don't worry anon, as you just laid out the worst case scenario is that we still get a cool jet.

The gov are pretty cogniscant as well that if they withdraw they'll basically never get to make another international consortium in the defence space like this again which is why I'm confident that the programme won't see cuts when the DIP is actually published. Same goes for AUKUS.

Maybe the funding will get chucked on the debt pile, maybe there'll be some timescale fuckery about military housing or pensions or some other shit. Maybe Canada and Germany get on board and it's all a lot cheaper. Maybe it goes to the wider budget and Reeves finally revises the triple lock or something citing higher military spend justified by global instability (she'd be right to do so). That's all /pol/ fodder tho, any way it goes, we're going to see a cool jet. The program is too deep now for it to wither on the vine.

>>65037243
>The program is too deep now for it to wither on the vine
On that I 100% agree, the jet is going to get built, I just don't think it'll be built in england to any great extent if they don't start funding things very soon, as I said Japan sees 2035 as a very hard deadline and they'll pay a $10B penalty if they have to just to make sure they can hit that date.

The GCAP program is unfortunately VERY much the "right" size to cut for the MoD to meet the treasury's current demands for the DIP.

>>65037279
Nah, she'll be right.

There's spend that doesn't have the same return to UK industry that'll get cut first if there are really cuts coming. We'll have to wait for the DIP to be published to find out but I have a funny feeling this'll end with back bench tard wrangling to pare back welfare spend expectations and calm bond markets rather than defence programme cuts.

Saying "higher defence spending is needed to address all this geopolitical uncertainty btw it'll make more good high tech UK jobs" is such a political slam dunk that I can't see it going any other way.

>Poojeeta warriortard is still bumpimg this thread weeks later
Lmfao

>>65037360
I just don't have that faith, they've spent the last 4+ months pissing in japan's cereal for no real reason if they are just going to force it through in june.

They should've forced it through months ago if that's what they were going to do anyway and saved everyone from getting pissed at them for delaying the program.

BAE/RR and all the SMEs have had to pay out of pocket to keep their employees working on GCAP stuff over the last 4 months, if the DIP gets pushed through with the excuse of geopolitical uncertainty, I think rightfully people are going to ask what the fuck took them so long to admit that? It's already cost an estimated £300-400 million that these companies have had to self-fund with no guarantee they'll be getting a future contract once the DIP is passed.

>>65037368
If you hadn't noticed, it's being bumped because of the £700M contract award from yesterday/this morning. It's the biggest GCAP news in months.

>>65037400
The DIP is a MoD wide exercise and taking a 10 year timeframe into account which hasn't been done before. It's not a simple exercise, and it's complicated by having to converse with the treasury and cabinet about it.

The BBC reported back in Feb that Starmer was considering a rise to 3% of GDP for defence by the end of this parliament; that's no coincidence and would nicely cover the shortfall. There are likely conversations behind closed doors with the likes of the OBR and Treasury to figure out how doable that is which are probably getting detailed weekly if not daily by the bond market getting fucky thanks to middle Eastern oil flows.

There are probably some very stressed public servants running around right now, but political will for future defence spend has probably increased this last month despite the situation stressing the national finances.

>>65037453
To be fair, it's only gone down this 10 year path recently BECAUSE they couldn't figure it out in the normal 1 year plan.

>>65037453
>The DIP is a MoD wide exercise and taking a 10 year timeframe into account which hasn't been done before. It's not a simple exercise, and it's complicated by having to converse with the treasury and cabinet about it.
>Achually the UK is doing this super duper hard defense plan that they have never done before at such a scale, but they also didn't have any backup plan or guarantees for an extremely important multinational program!!!
This isn't the defense you think it is. If they are doing this unprecedented and risky ass program then you should probably have some shtf backup plan to guarantee funding to important projects, but they didn't. This fact makes it even more embarrassing for the bongs since they seemingly saw no risk in this extremely volatile plan right before an election and now are massively delayed because of it.

>>65038068
>>65038028
They should've ring fenced GCAP funding months ago to at least assure Italy/Japan funding for GCAP was coming, even if the actual release of funds was delayed.