So how long exactly until the US and Israel start running low enough on interceptors to the point where more Iranian missiles/drones start getting through than are intercepted? This article seems pretty good, but doesn't give a concrete answer as to exactly how long we have until American/Israeli/GCC energy and military infrastructure are left open.https://www.fpri.org/article/2026/03/over-5000-munitions-shot-in-the-first-96-hours-of-the-iran-war/>Munition expenditure framing matters because the public debate has split into two camps: panic that America is “running out” or complacency that the West can simply buy its way out. Burn rates matter because it reveals an American industrial resilience gap, especially with the minerals and materials needed to create more munitions and weapon systems. Per our analysis, many high-volume weapons remain healthy. But the war is burning fastest through the categories that cannot be replaced quickly: air-defense interceptors, long-range strike munitions, and the enabling radar and command architecture that turns interceptor missiles into a broader defense network to protect airbases, ports, launchers, and other critical infrastructure. Degradation of the integrated air defense network means reduced fidelity and tracking of Iranian missiles and drones, meaning more “leakers” can sneak through defenses undetected and/or air defense sectors are forced to expend more missiles to increase the likelihood of a successful intercept. Days into the Iran conflict, the Trump administration was already pressing defense firms to quadruple surge output, especially for exquisite weapon systems.
>Iran’s strategy is built on this very weakness. To be clear, the four-day burn rate is not the steady-state tempo of the conflict. After the initial phase, Iranian salvos fell sharply, with daily drone attacks down by approximately 83 percent and daily missile attacks down by 90 percent after day five. But that is precisely the point. The first 96 hours capture the peak stress test, revealing what happens when an adversary attempts to saturate defenses before suppression and attrition take hold. Figure 2 benchmarks this opening intensity, illustrating a deliberate Iranian strategy to overwhelm defenses by trading their cheaper, mass-produced munitions for the West’s expensive, finite interceptors. Iran’s approach is necessary because it knows it cannot prevent the coalition from achieving “air supremacy,” as noted by retired US Gen. David Petraeus.>While access, stealth, and targeting remain critical, the limiting factor in a peer conflict is the ability to keep striking and keep defending after the initial salvos. Already two weeks into the war, the Pentagon is redeploying critical air defense assets from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East. This shift in assets demonstrates that the American defense industrial base (DIB) cannot comfortably support a two-theater posture, highlighting a strategic dilemma in American warfighting.
>>65017095>The defensive interceptor arithmetic is the most dangerous finding. Gulf partner and US Patriot batteries fired 943 rounds in 96 hours, consuming 18 months of production from a single shared Lockheed Martin/Boeing production line currently running at 620 interceptors per year. Even with Poland’s WZL-1 facility now contributing PAC-3 MSE launch tubes to the global supply chain, the binding constraint remains the Boeing seeker assembly, which limits final production regardless of how many other components are available. The Tomahawk, at 34 days to depletion (assuming high-ops tempo consumption), appears more comfortable until the replenishment timeline is considered: at 85 units per year, replacing an operation expenditure of 375 missiles in 96 hours takes 53 months to regenerate. The Williams International F107 turbofan engine, sole-source for Tomahawk, JASSM, JASSM-ER, and LRASM, is the production bottleneck that no amount of funding can immediately widen.honestly i guess a better question would be "how long exactly until the US and Israel start running low enough on interceptors to the point where the US, Iran and Israel's important civilian/military infrastructure and equipment starts snowballing in terms of losses due to lack of munitions?"
>>65017093Remember when Iran fired off 400 missiles at once, producing videos that made brown people cheer only for later BDA to prove they hit fuck'all of value and did little damage ?Yeah, the internet remembers motherfuckers
Could have gotten drone interceptors from Ukraine, but...>The US is opposed to Ukraine supplying its weapons to the Persian Gulf states, says a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security.>"They want to obtain these technologies from Ukraine and then export them themselves," Rakhmanin said.
>>65017105calm down, there are plenty of other shitflinging threads
>>65017093>How long exactly until.... run low on interceptorsNever. Or two weeks, if you believe the seething thirdies, but they do forget that America literally and unironically has infinite money and a guided missile for every brownoid on the planet and the next six generations of their children.
>>65017093Hitting Israel doesn't really matter in the big picture, hitting oil infrastructure and keeping the strait closed is how Iran bleeds the world for letting Israel and America act like this.
>>65017093Already is happening, why do you think there are these "we report our attacks in 2 weeks as a gesture of good will!". Didn't you learn anything from the shitshow that happened since 2022?
>>65017093it is knownhttps://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/over-11000-munitions-16-days-iran-war-command-reload-governs-endurance
>>65017406>russi.orgit's funny cause I remember in the opening days of the russian ukraine war everyone was saying the exact same thing about russia
>>65017108Sounds like the US doesn't have the cards, lol
>>65017471>The retard got ass blasted from Zelensky's trip to the Middle East (and it seems like a successful trip). So much so that he publicly humiliated Prince Mohammed bin Salman, with whom the President of Ukraine had a meeting.>"He (Prince Mohammed bin Salman) didn't think he was coming to kiss my ass. He thought he was going to be another American president who's a loser... but now he has to treat me well, he better be polite to me - he has to do it," - Trump.>He said this at the US-Saudi investment forum, where he tried to attract Saudis to invest in the US!>And then he even admitted that he likes spending time with losers because it makes him feel better. "I hate people who have achieved great success and make me listen to stories about their achievements. I like people who like to hear about my successes," says a patient of the white nuthouse.
>>65017469It's just a basic trend, extrapolated from published data. Of course it'S not accurate.They even list the source, so if you really wanted to you could go look it up yourself
>>65017102Well it matters more on the Navy side since they can't be reloaded at sea and we haven't seen tactical genius hegseth send and SAGs to the Lincoln group to start shuttling out the DDGs who need to rearm. At some point that will make the entire CSG have to temporarily come off the line, and since generally only one ship at a time can rearm at the magazine will make the process take way longer than necessary.
>>65017406>The US is running out of air defense interceptors, therefore we won't have the ability to fight a war against a country with no credible air defensesWhy do thirdies push this retarded line of reasoning so hard? No matter how many munitions we expend in this war, we will never have fewer interceptors than Iran, Russia, and China combined, because theirs don't work.
>>65017469>>65017483ukraine running low on interceptors was true. we have pentagon leaks that prove that.
>>65017108Luckily GCC leaders seem to be forming their own contracts for ukie interceptor drones.I wonder if Qatar will cough up those retired Mirage 2000's or if it's just going to be a bunch of "defense cooperation" deals.
>>65017108Jesus Christ, it's like Trump wants to lose
>>65017510Everything's a zero sum game to him. Ukraine providing the service directly doesn't give US anything tangible in his mind, they have to get something out of it.
>>65017497See, this is where the whole 'running low' thing is important. noone will ever truly 'run out' as long as the production lines are running in the rest of the world.UNless you only have one factory making the interceptors, but nobody would be dumb enough to do that, now would they?
>>65017093You let them launch, track them back, intercept incoming, and then take out the launchers. Its more a question of coordination capabilities.
>>65017509>source: Telegram kys
>>65017093Just two more weeks habibi
>>65017093I think the US can make 15 interceptors per day
>>65017495Because turdies cannot reason beyond what they can interact with their five senses. Abstract thought and reasoning is simply beyond them. Therefore, if they see a lot of drone videos, drones become the only weapon that works. If they can’t see ships going through the strait, the strait’s closed. If they see the cardboard Ayatollah, then Iran’s leadership is intact. Once you understand that most of their behavior follows.
>>65017601cry is free
Doesn't matter. Imagine how much money is being made
>>65017495>>65017674How much are you guys getting paid? How long have you been here? Since Ukraine, I'm guessing. Why does Israel care about /k/? Why have you faggots ruined this board?
>>65017730I do it for free for the love of The Game, which you just lost. Get rekt loser.
>65017730>How much are you guys getting paid? How long have you been here? Since Ukraine, I'm guessing. Why does Israel care about /k/? Why have you faggots ruined this board?Intriguing multipolar cope.
>>65018032>intriguingBog standard /pol/cel posting desu, it's either jews or trannies living in their heads and once the voices get to loud for them to ignore its permanent. Family should have ol' yellered them years ago
>>65017105I mean, isn't that the point?Waste interceptors using trash salvos, then once supplies run low/out you use your damage dealers.Even if iran loses this war, the US and kikes will forever be humiliated.
>>65017093Unless you work for DIA you will never know and are just guessing for lolz.
If Iran is so based, why haven't they used WMD's on Israel?
>>65017105You gloat while demonstrating intellectual disability and thinking those people have it and not you that does not realize having it.Iran used older ballistic missiles first to conduct attrition of missile interceptors and later newer, if you were informed and not uninformed then you would have been aware of footage from Israel of single Iranian ballistic missile going through air defenses that launched dozen interceptors.
>>65018056>>65019879>those werent Irans REAL missiles>Just wait till the US and Israel run out of interceptorsHeh...what ever makes you sleep at night and forget you're permanently brain damaged and underdeveloped due to malnourishment I guess.
>>65017510He's held a vendetta against Ukraine for years. It's not even Putin's hand up his ass, he hates Zelensky personally for not backing him up on that Hunter Biden bullshit.
>>65019879>>65020378It looks like someone samefagging to act retarded for one side.
>>65020463>Zelensky will be cause of collapse of not one superpower but two
>>65020378Keep telling yourself while projecting own experience and misfortune you have.
>>65017093unlike in Ukraine, here the US and Israel currently possess dominance over the sky of Iran and are actively hunting down Iranian missile launchers.so no, they aren't running out of interceptors anytime soon. on the other hand, Iran seems to be getting short on launchers lately.
>>65020463this entire admin, with the exception of Marco Rubio, seems to hate Ukraine with passion for some retarded reasons
>>65022034Written like someone who has never eaten beef in his life
If Israel runs out and starts taking large casualties they WILL nuke Iran, because they consider non-jewish lives to be worth substantially less than jewish lives.
>>65022603>seems to hate Ukraine with passion for some retarded reasonThey dont hate Ukraine. They just arent interested in an idiotic Obama-era geopolitical policy. They resent Ukraine based primarily on how its leaders behave. No problem with the people or country itself.
>>65022656They want to make money with the gangsters who rule Russia. Ukraine refusing to lose makes that difficult unless they want to piss off everyone who doesn't like the idea of Russia invading its neighbors. They resent Ukraine for existing, the Obama era policy they use as an excuse is the natural consequence of the rest of the West not being able to tolerate the US ignoring their geopolitical concerns. And the US can't ignore those concerns because the US requires the rest of west to participate in our sanction regimes if those sanction regimes are to have teeth.
>>65017102What's going to happen is DIB middle rank guys will (have been) mailing ukrainian defense industry middle rank to get ideas and schematics, being americans they won't care really much what the top brass says to comply with boomer administrations who created this mess, instead they will network so the weakness is corrected.And them and the glowies who have swear to defend the hegemony no matter the cost are the actual real reason why Ukraine is still receiving US aid and will keep getting so despite Drumpff hating Zelya.They also enjoy seeing all these multipolars seethe, cope, dilate and get featured at goreleaf posts because yes, it's very funny.
>>65022644He probably has eaten dung though, you know, for karmic purposes or something.
