It seems that Iran and the USA are both open to re-initiating hostilities if this ceasefire/negotiations fall through, but how does that work for the USA at all? In 2 weeks>Russia will still be making a fuckton of money off unsanctioned oil>Iran will be making a fuckton of money off unsanctioned Iranian oil>Iran will be making a fuckton of money off tolling the Strait>Iran is still building missiles>Iran is still building drones>China and Russia will have 2 weeks to provide more military intelligence to Iran>China and Russia will have 2 weeks to provide Iran munitions and other equipment>China is providing Iran with anti-air equipment>Iran will further mine the Strait>Iran will further position their underwater drone systems>Their leadership will all be in hidingSo in two weeks, Iran digs in and resupplies. Let’s look at the US side>Interceptor missiles supply running down>Can’t really make any more>Tomahawk supply near halved>Can’t really make any more>No element of surprise anymore>Strategic oil reserves dwindling>Economy already freefalling>Public support for the war in the shitter>All but banned from European airspace>Jet fuel shortage>Midterms approaching>Can’t really stock up on munitions or dig-in in any meaningful wayIt feels like this interim period is just shaping up to be like the start of the war, except with Iran in a much more fortified and favorable position. It doesn’t really seem clear how the US can utilize this “dead-time” to their advantage.
It's funny how thread #19043529 about Iran vs Israel geopolitics will be greeted with indifference or mild enthusiasm but if you post a thread asking a gun question /k/ malds itself into bitter girl tears because someone wanted to talk about guns
>>>/pol/
>>65069305They’re waiting to see who ends up in leadership so they know who to kill when it restarts. If you just keeping throwing money into the government gacha eventually you pull the one you want, or Iran becomes Syria. They’re fine with either.
>>65069319>Post thread about Ukraine War and the jannies say everything is fine>But post a thread about Iran War and jannies lose their mindsSociety.
>>65069343I've already been banned 3 or 4 times now for saying America is a zigger nation.
>>65069343It was the exact same way when Ukraine started, not that I agree that we shouldn’t discuss war here in either case.
>>65069343Jannies are fags and will arbitrarily enforce the rules. Call someone a nigger or a faggot, and nothing happens. Call someone a jeet or a kike? Hope you enjoy your 3day. I even got a 3day for saying that Blumpf was going to end all lethal aid to Ukraine. Jannies are just over paid reddit mods with even less karma and tendies.Sad!
>>65069305Going as Trump planned.>make russia great againMRGA movement hidden under MAGA. Oh that snake in the grass!
>>65069343>>65069533One started before the sharty, the other started well after a ton of the staff got replaced after the hack. Because who the fuck would want to come back and do it for free after a bunch of wojack-posting dysgenics got your email address? Where the hell do you think our current jannies are from?
>>65069305>brown delusion thread
>>65069378>gay sex analogyMethinks your accusations are mere projection.
>>65069549Would said place be south of China, east of Bangladesh, and west of P*kistan?
>>65069565>There is no gay sex in the US or Russia>Implying Slick Willy didn't head from a repressed fag from New York Tale as old as time
>>65069571I've only ever seen Russians be this obsessed with gay sex acts.
>>65069572Prison culture is a hell of a thing
>>65069572America loves gay chicken, russians want dick in the ass
Why wouldn't this work? Just one American nuke dropping in the empty Iranian desert during the middle of negotiations. Imagine Vance standing right there in front of the Iranian delegation when someone runs up to tell them the sudden news. How would they react?
>>65069742This would only serve to reaffirm their belief that having a nuclear deterrent is the only way to protect their sovereignty.
>>65069378American here. I talked a lot of shit about Russia, and plenty about Slow Joe. I would like to say US hardware and operational leadership proved itself superior again this war, but unfortunately all this shows is that no amount of technical and tactical acumen makes up for strategic retardation of the highest order. In retrospect, I am willing to admit I may have voted for the candidate with worse dementia, dangerous high energy dementia.It is certainly no advantage that Iran managed to get rid of their octogenarian leader and we are stuck with ours.
>>65069742>Shmuley BoteachWho the fuck names their kid Shmuley.What the fuck is that, man?
>>65069305>can’t make anymore.lol, lmao even. If you think Iran after being bombed to shit has a greater missile production capacity than an untouched u.s you’re just fucking coping. Hard. Jones act already put on pause. So your fuel shortage dream is just a dream. The weak stomachs of the pussified u.s are why it’s a heckin warcrimerino to defeat the enemy. Bomb the power plants. And agricultural centers. Trump is a senile old man with just as much gusto as the dead faggot and his disfigured dead mother,father,wife having faggot currently serving as leader. Holy fuck we need to nuke them. One would bring them to their knees.
>>65069784>Just take the gloves off and fight for real this time.>Also we are winning and have won.>But the gloves are coming off!>NOOKS! Holy shit, we were the real vatniks all along...
>weI am demoralized.
>>65069774I just voted for him because I thought he'd be funny at least. That lasted about half a year. Honestly more than anything I miss 2016-2019 Trump where he still had to actually try, unlike now when the people who hate him have terminal TDS and that his cultist base will do whatever the fuck he says.
>>65069305>russia and china can indefinitely produce more weapons to funnel into theatre while the US, who outspends both of them annually in defense, cannot do the samePosting in a brown clown thread.
>>65069305Who posts this garbage?
>>65069305>Can’t really make any more>Can’t really make any moreThe US makes more missiles per year than all of BRICS combined, btw.
Two USN Destroyers passed through the strait. Three more warships will pass tommorow
>>65069305You left out the part where Iran's power, water, and cash situations aren't getting any better. Iran's President, the highest-ranking non-IRGC survivor, was warning a couple of weeks ago that if they didn't get a treaty within three weeks, there was a very real risk of national collapse.What happens when the IRGC can't find enough money to keep its own regime enforcers and pet terrorists (many of whom are now being used against Iranian civilians) paid? What happens when there's not enough food, fuel, or maybe even water to go around in Tehran? There are a lot of questions that we don't know the answers to--and indeed, DC and Tehran may or may not know some of those answers.
>>65069793Basically. You can see the same rhetoric if you go back to the Iraq War, especially after Bremmer fucked up the occupation.>Heh, now we'll nuke the sand niggers and erase our problems. I'm a badass crusader.And of course, a lot of the same people who were saying this kind of genocidal rhetoric denied they did for about a 20 years, and are saying the same things again now. It's just reflective of the character of a large subset of the American people.
>>65069305How come this rule>>64246310>All discussion of politics and current events goes on /pol/. >>>/pol/is applied arbitrarily in this board?
>>65069971Because the mods and jannies here are unironic pigger shills. In all seriousness, 4chan as a whole has been fucked for a very long time.
Israeli tardwrangling or even just acts of aggression feels like a strong contender for undermining the peace as well. I can't see them liking Iran getting a whole new revenue stream if that clause is kept.
Apparently negotiations fell through, but with mine clearing vessels already in the strait will Iran be able to close it again? If US warships are able to enter the strait wouldn’t that mean that it’s largely safe for shipping?
>>65070007It was never the mines keeping the strait closed.
>>65070007>Apparently negotiations fell through, but with mine clearing vessels already in the strait will Iran be able to close it again?Yes, it is trivially easy to lay mines again.>If US warships are able to enter the strait wouldn’t that mean that it’s largely safe for shipping?No, the fact that a floating fortress can make it through the Strait does not make it safe for shipping.A VLCC tanker is just a big bucket of highly-flammable petroleum products. All it takes is a single mine or drone, and, boom, literally a billion dollars sinks to the bottom of the ocean. If the Strait were 99% safe, that would be too risky. If 1 in 100 VLCC tankers were blown up passing through the Strait, it would fuck the economy over the table.Iran can still piss out underwater drones from the mountains. Absolutely nobody is taking that risk with a VLCC even if they’re escorted by a Trump-Class Battleship.
>>65070087>A VLCC tanker is just a big bucket of highly-flammable petroleum products. All it takes is a single mine or drone, and, boom, literally a billion dollars sinks to the bottom of the oceanMeanwhile in relaity>61 percent of the ships attacked during the Tanker War were oil tankers. In total, only 55 of the 239 petroleum tankers (23 percent) were completely sunk or declared CTL, compared to 39 percent of bulk carriers and 34 percent of freighters
>>65070087I want to know where these claims about underwater drones are coming from, I haven't seen any evidence that either Iran or Russia has access to anything like that
>>65069305I assume the Americans will start systematically bombing everything with an IRGC logo painted on it again and Iran will once more prove completely incapable of stopping themwhat this means for Iran in the long term is anyones guess
This thread was moved to >>>/pol/533006098
