Strategically speaking, how does Iran with no navy/airframes beat this? Why is it working so well, and why couldn’t we have done something like this in the Carter era?
>>65080538ching chong chang
>>65080538>Why is it working so wellBecause the US top brass are implementing the age old strategy called "making this shit up as we go".>why couldn’t we have done something like this in the Carter era?Because the US had just gotten out of a very unpopular war in Vietnam, and the public was incredibly war fatigued (very similar to now.)
As much as I'd love to see Iran and the US work together to block the strait, the US blockade is much further out. This is a problem.
>>65080538> Why is it working so wellHow does it achieve what war aims?How does it impact all of our other diplomatic and economic goals?>why couldn’t we have done something like this in the Carter era?Because our leaders felt that the impact on our other diplomatic and economic goals and activities wasn’t worth the effect it would have had on our enemies.
>>65080561Well markets are back up. So it either fake and gay or it working.
>>65080538>hy couldn’t we have done something like this in the Carter era?Because the relatively new petro dollar was held hostage by the Middle East as we slowly phased down our gas production from the 50s, which lead to full dependency on the Arab states. These Arab states were more angry and unified at the time due to their losses on the Six Day War. As a result the US blockading the strait would have been unfeasible AND the Soviet Navy (still mostly functional) would have been called in to help open the lanes potentially leading to a stand up conflict. In the modern age we have removed our oil dependency off of the ME (this happened in the early 00s before you were probably alive) and there is no naval force of comparable abilities to remove us from the blockade.
>>65080555FAKE NEWS. REPORTED.
>>65080538>howIt can't. Period. >why so effective Because the US has completely separated itself from ME oil, and is a net exporter of oil, and people buy oil in USD. If anything higher oil prices is a net benefit to the US, as it hurts Europe, Asia, and the Chinese far more.
>>65080538would've been much easier under carterthe navy was gigantic back then
>>65080606Why didn’t carter do it though?
>>65080614Theres a good reason why he's one of the shittiest presidents in the last 50ish years.
>>65080605>>how>If anything higher oil prices is a net benefit to the US, as it hurts Europe, AsiaThey'll go back to Russian oil. BTW Russians now want Yuan instead of Roubles for their oil so the Chinese directly benefit from the situation. >and the Chinese far moreChina can always buy oil from Russia, as a matter of fact China buys oil from Venezuela and Iran to distance itself from Russia.
>>65080561>How does it achieve what war aims? Well, Iran wants to control the strait. Now it can't. It is basically a cockblock on Iran's one and only leverage in all this.
>>65080620>buy from Russia >looks at their refineries and oil pipelinesHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
>>65080614war was le bad at the time
>>65080555>>65080538Where the coal toll and troll toll?
>>65080619>Gives away the Panama Canal for no reason at allImagine doing this
>>65080538What about the troll toll?
>>65080632They have many refineries in the middle of Siberia.
>>65080574>we slowly phased down our gas production from the 50s, which lead to full dependency on the Arab states.The US just ran out of gas. New technology enabled fracking but even here all fields except the Permian are either stagnant or declining so the Iran war had to happen now before the shale oil starts declining.
>>65080538They don't. Iran's gamble was that they could convince the U.S. to stop the war by hurting other countries and choking the global supply of oil.This has backfired pretty spectacularly. All of its Gulf neighbors hate Iran now, Trump could care less about what other countries think, and the U.S. is making a killing by gobbling up marketshare from ME exporters.
>>65080634>>65080644>>65080538If you could please consult the charts:
>>65080657The US will be fine for at least a century and a half on US oil alone, and now with oil from the south it should be fine. we'll be in the nuclear age before we're out of oil
>>65080574>>65080657We're now importing oil from Canada AND Venezuela. We effectively just became the biggest oil distributor in the world.There's a better move I've heard Trump did recently and that was to elevate the Philippines to a close ally status (something along the lines of partner). The reason for this is specifically the Strait of Mallacha. That strait is an extremely active shipping lane for Chinese bound oil (from Iran).Essentially, Trump has blockaded Chinese oil from Iran in two locations. President Trump is visiting Beijing next month. This means he's going to be walking into the meeting with the ability to shut down all of China's major transportation capabilities. He's got them by the balls, and that's going to make negotiating very easy.Go ahead, look it up.
>>65080708>we>biggest global distributorIt's always hilarious watching clownshows talk shit about commodities markets when they have absolutely no fucking idea how they work.
>>65080565the AI casino responding positively isnt really much of a good sign for the war. Covid broke any rationality the stock market had left. It is completely divorced from most everyday realities.
>>65080538Tell me why a joint US/Iranian toll wouldn't work as a solution? Both parties are incentivized to keep the straight open, the US gets to moniter shipping traffic and has an excuse to maintain military presence there, Iran gets money to rebuild their totally not nuke devslopment facilities, and China has to pay the US for every barrel of oil it buys.
>>65080723>the market doesn't mean anything because I've decided it's not real
>>65080708>Strait of """Mallacha""">The PhillippinesThe Strait of Mallaca is between Malaysia and Indonesia you turbo retard
>>65080538>>65080546Ask not for Hu the bell tolls; it tolls for Li.
>>65080691>no lol tollFake news
>>65080894>mestyped once latter>autistist setthes
>>65080657Technically speaking we actually froze the tapping of our reserves and THEN new tech made it feasible to unlock more of our stores at a cheaper rate. We had plenty of sources, but the Saudis had the best wells and so did the Iranians for the cheapest cost. Additionally when we moved to the petrodollar we had to deprecate huge swaths of sectors to make it work (world reserve currencies do not play nice with production economies, it makes your tender too costly to export goods)
>>65080708Literally everyone has known that the US is working to isolate Chinese and enemy oil. VZ was a major operation for it, but it's also a major economic setup for the USA as we built the refineries for their crude and now can use them again. Additionally if you have been following the news, the crude from VZ is essentially for industrial production/infrastructure and the Chinese needed it more than any other type
>>65080565Allbirds, the sneaker company, just 6Xed by announcing they were abandoning shoes to pivot to providing AI infrastructure. The NASDAQ going up is not proof that things are good.
>>65080937https://endtropy.substack.com/p/trumps-enormous-c-length-win-overForgot the source. Article came out months ago, but the important thing to note is that for the Chinese any type of oil restrictions will have big impact on them. Even with their consumer market running off of coal plants (Australian coal at that) for daily vehicle needs all of their heavy shipping will be impacted and their infra projects will be slowed as they run out of the various crude that drives their production economy. What makes this even more interesting is that post COVID Chinas production economy has been struggling as various countries tamper down their consumer markets and thus imports. The Chinese much like the USA are linked to the US consumer economy to help keep their various orders going. This is also why they artificially deflate their currency (Yuan), by deflating the currency outsiders (importers) are incentivized to purchase Chinese as their outside dollar goes farther into the local Chinese economy. This in turn gives them the ability to produce such huge scale numbers. They are attempting to replace it with internal purchasing power, but now with post COVID making so many money making projects go negative theyve had to sharply slash funds and push for manufacturing contractions (which hurt even more in this setup). By attacking their heavy diesel source you slash directly at the Chinese consumer as the external cost of goods raise enough to make them uncompetitive. Which means the Chinese have to further devalue their currency, which given the budget contractions has led to massive economic failure. This is why their largest real estate company failed a year or two ago and has been quietly covered up. The US has long controlled oil supplies via soft measures, our current setup is much more akin to the colonial/imperial era as we use it to effectively ice out the other competing empire
>>65080898>believes this70IQ brownoid spotted.
>>65080917>Burger is bad at geography and attempts to lecture othersfatigue
>>65080954But anon it's because of Israel don't you know, the US dosen't do anything but for Israel ;)
>>65080946...why is a shoe company making AI?Do the shoes come with AI in them?That has to be some sort of top signal
>>65080954It's also worth noting that swapping from a producer economy is typically very painful and the US managed it via the petrodollar to help shift our manufacturing to cheaper locations. For the Chinese it's not clear what path they would take as Commies very much prefer production economies (physical goods are Commies love language when referring to the productivity of the workers). It's hard to imagine that any such economic shift will occur under Chinese leadership, if their hope is that their large consumer market will fuel spending then they also have to undo years of Communist policy to further push consumption economies (after all producers can only make so many goods before the market demand craters). This is why the Chinese have been keeping so quiet the last few years. They are currently reforming their military arms, their economic plans, and energy needs as they deal with a US super power that is playing more aggressively than it has in the last 50 years None of this means Trump is a good leader, I consider him to be a useful muppet the more serious policy goal folks have been vaguely pointing in directions. We do know for example that Rubio is specifically targeting Cuba as his regime change target
>Iran closes Hormuz>US goes to war to open Hormuz (for israel)>Ceasefire is signed>Iran opens Hormuz>Ceasefire is broken in 30 minutes>US closes Hormuz>Within hours Trump posts on Truth social that Hormuz is open againSomeone explain the putinianesque 5d chess game to a white, Mediterranean Euro (with tanned arms up to the elbows) male with exclusively and only white schuko plugs in his house
>>65080971>the US wants to get regime change so they can call it a day>each time someone gets put in charge, Israel bombs them and their extended familyThe cardboard for more ayatollah must be running low at this point
>>65080538Working well?US blocks ships that pay the Iranian toll, Iran blocks all ships that don't. So the strait is closed simple as.Everyone pays more for oil, US allies in the gulf lose hundreds of billions monthly and the whole world gets higher inflation. While this whole war is just an embarrassment for the US and another proof that the Israeli influence in the US needs to be uprooted, if the US wanted to strangulate Iran economically they should go for a much more heavy handed approach. all energy plants and oil facilities as well as other key infrastructure and all major factories and anything that can generate money. No power no oil no money and than just hope at some point social collapse causes them the implode politically or negotiate on US terms.But Muslims are a resilient bunch and Trump has a much lower pain tolerance to the stock market going down than Iran has to its own people suffering. So the current situation does little to change the negative status quo that the US and Israeli got everyone into.
>>65080977no one knows what the fuck is happeninganyone that pretends to know is lying
>>65080987The regime is still intact and lobbing missiles/drones. This operation was obviously meant to be a few days.
>>65080977Iran was playing fuck fuck games about uranium enrichment and found out. Decapitation strikes were too succesful and now Iran's govt is a bunch of mid level warlords playing game of thrones. Their one card of any worth was closing the strait and preying on insurance company hesitancy to hurt global oil pricing. Trump has managed to piss of Europe by daring to make them do something. They didn't want to get involved in America's world policing because they still don't think WW3 is happening already and are hoping things will remain relativley cozy while they pay Ukranians to mulch Russians in the perpetual slav blending machine.l that's been erected in the zone. One faction decides to break with the absent cardboard Ayatollah and enter into talks with America. Vance was sent and predictably talks went south as Iran still thinks soneone is coming to their aid after the global south puffed them up as the strongman of the week. The ceasefire failed for whatever reason and now America is blockading the blockade and choking the life out of iran until it submits. The world is having a melt because the game they refuse to take part in isn't benefiting them.
>>65081004Holy cope textwall. The strait was open before the war. Now we are launching a war to reopen the strait that was open before we launched the war kek.
- 2 F-15 (claimed friendly fire, Patriot SAM)- 1 F-15 (Kuwaiti F-18?)- 1 KC-135 (claimed shot down by Iraqi militias)- 1 KC-135 (damaged, claimed mid-air collision)- ~20-30 Hermes-900 (claimed by Iran)- ~10 Heron, up to Heron-TP (claimed by Iran)- ~5 Hermes-450 ( Shot down by Hezbollah)- ~24-30 MQ-9 Reaper (Shot-down & hit on ground)- 1 KC-135 (heavily damaged on the ground)- 3 KC-135 (damaged on the ground)- 1 F-35 (heavily damaged/crash-landed)- 1 F/A-18E (light damage by SAM)- 1 KC-135 (destroyed on the ground)- 1 KC-46 (claimed destroyed on the ground)- 2-3 KC-135 (claimed damaged on the ground)- 1 E-3 AWACS (destroyed on the ground)- 1 E-3 AWACS (claimed damaged on the ground)- 1 EC-130H (claimed destroyed on the ground)- 1 EC-130H (claimed heavily damaged on the ground)- 1 UH-60 Blackhawk (hit by Iraqi FPV drone)- 1 F-15E (shot down)- 1 A-10 (shot down over Strait of Hormuz)- 1 A-10 (damaged & crashed, northern P. Gulf)- 1 HH-60 (hit and crash-landed in Iraq)- 1 HH-60 (hit by small arms, damaged)- 2 CH-47 (destroyed on the ground)- 1 CH-53 ? (destroyed on the ground, type unclear)- 2 HC-130 (hit/destroyed on the ground by U.S.)- 4 MH-6 (destroyed on the ground by U.S.)- 1 MQ-4C (lost, most likely shot down over P. Gulf
>>65081014Woah, you can't say that online. Report to your nearest Amazon Prime Re-education Center immediately
>>65080977>Iran didn't lose the Hormuz, according to Iran.>US didn't go to war to open the Hormuz, it was a known side effect of any war.>The ceasefire wasn't broken.>The US didn't close the Hormuz, ships are passing through it freely.I'm not sure where you're getting your information from but its veracity is all over the place.
>>65081018>1 F-15 (Kuwaiti F-18?)Does it still count as an A2A kill if it's friendly fire?
>>65080977>Iran closes Hormuz>US goes to war to open Hormuz (for Israel)do you retards actually believe this shit?
>>65081018
>>65081040I want to kill whoever made this slide
>>65081018Meanwhile…It crazy thirdies are so focus on the dollar value and not the loss of life.
>>65081014the war was never about the strait, it was about buttfucking Iran and in the process bending China over. China can literally do nothing while America absolutely gapes China's allies
>>65081064in the process bending the entire global economy, including the US domestic economy, overfix'd
>>65081060>muh kay deeseppo spotted lmao
>>65080914
>>65081039No, see, he said it was for Israel, so now you have to support [brown and/or communist country] or you're a Jew.
>>65081064But /pol/ tells me China doing nothing and winning is the optimal strategy?!?!
>>65080977Your sequencing of events is totally wrong
>>65080988you can tell someone is a /pol/tard when they focus on muh economy but don't make a peep about how China is absolutely buttfucked by June if something (Iran) doesn't give
>>65081004>Iran was playing fuck fuck games about uranium enrichment and found out.Nigger what. Not even going into the nuclear deal that Trump backed out on during his first term, the US already took care of the "nuclear question" after the airstrikes back in the summer of 2025. If you think this was started because of "muh nukes" then that means the 2025 strikes did fuckall or you're getting smoke blown up your ass. Either way there is no way the Trump admin doesn't come out of this war looking dumb and retarded.
>>65081067>if oil prices ever increase then the war is pointless and America losesnot how super powers work but erm ok
>>65081087they sure do look dumb and retarded when you don't know what is going on. Do you realize how a naval blockade of Iran is going to rape China? Do you think Russian oil is going to save China?
>>65080561>How does it achieve what war aims?>the theoryIran runs out of cash and their military and second more fanatical military give up or get overthrown.>the realityWe don't fucking know.Baring an actual revolution, China can prop up the current regime indefinetly.>diplomaticIt's a social experiment to see how fast you can alienate all your allies.That said, the international gameplan is probably waiting it out and hoping Trump doesn'T survive the midterms.
>>65081097he believes lavrov who states russia can replace iran as china's supplier, and conveniently ignores that it's physically impossible.
>>65081060>get in a war with thridies>expect them to value life20 fucking years occupying sandnigger countries and apparently we haven't learned a fucking thing.Thanks Obama.
>>65080620>Russia, the country fighting an actual forever war, being China's main source of oil
>>65081097So now it's about China and not nukes? Because I was responding to the anon talking about Iranian nukes. Strange how you ignored that and just pivoted straight to China. I don't think the Trump admin was doing all this as 4d chess maneuver to fuck China. It's just a good collateral excuse now. Why even bother easing sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil and putting a 60-day paused on the Jones Act if squeezing China was the end goal this whole time? That makes no fucking sense.
>>65080946>Company that was always a scam pivots to the new popular scamAllbirds says nothing about the market at all.
>>65081120>eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities AND their provisions to Chinale problem?
>>65080538>Strategically speaking, how does Iran with no navy/airframes beat this?Keep the strait blocked, blow up saudi pipelines that go to the Red Sea, then enjoy Scott Bessent screeching when the oil-dollar cycle stops. Irans strategic weapon is the achilles heel of the american economic system which uses debt as money. Very few people understand what this means. In practice, without the oil dollar cycle active, America will have to chose between paying higher interest rates on its debt when it is issued and reissued (debt rollover), or finance its debt rollover by having the federal reserve print money and hand it to the "pirates of the caribbean", hedge funds owned by you know who who will use the money to buy american bonds at low rates. The former choice means America will have to dedicate the bulk of its tax income to service bond interest and bond repayments, the latter choice means annual real world inflation that will impoverish 95% of americans leading to domestic unrest, to say it mildly. Sun Tzu would say that America is in death ground, where the only choice is to fight. So this is why this war is not over. Any temporary pause in operations against Iran will be used to shift men and materiel to the combat zone. And domestically the american MIC will have to be placed under government control becasue this is not a leisure war like Korea or Vietnam or Iraq or Afghanistan where a loss has no real consequences, lose this and America will become Brazil del Norte.
>>65081060Thirdie lives are less valuable than equipment and they know it.
>>65081135Even in the US Army the assessed dollar value of an infantryman is roughly 1/10th that of his equipment.
>>65080894Singapore would like a word in that.
>>65080614>History's Greatest MonsterWhy did he give away the Panama Canal?Why did he kowtow to the USSR?Why did he give the "Malaise" speech rather than doing something about it?Why did he create the Department of Education?
Uhhh how is the US allowed to straight up commit piracy and no one doing shit?
>>65080691where boy's hole?
>>65080657The Marcellus gas trend in the northeast has an estimated 214 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. At the current rate of production that’s another 150 years worth of natural gas. And the only reason it’s not more is because the democrats in Nee York have banned fracking.
>>65081173Epstein Island
>>65081172Issue letters of marque already you fat orange cunt! Just fucking do it! FUCK!
>>65080691>No coal toll6/10 apply yourself
>>65080620There aren't enough pipelines from the western oil fields to China. The oil fields in the east which are connected to China don't produce enough. This means that most of the oil has to go from the Baltic and Black Sea ports all the way around Asia. Oh, and Ukraine keeps blowing up key refinery equipment.
>>65081172shooting at ships at random is pirate behavior. The US seizing Iranian ships is fair game
>>65081189Are you blind Anon? It's right there on the northern Omani coast
>>65081172Seizing enemy flagged ships (as well as neutrally flagged ships that you have probable cause to believe are destined for an enemy port) is permitted under the laws and usages of war.
>>65081186
>>65081189ayo dis nigga can't read
>>65080977>>US goes to war to open Hormuz (for israel)Fucking retard
>>65081060>700 mossad agents arrestedWhat
>>65081186Only Congress can issue letters of Marque and reprisal
We've had a first toll, what about second toll?How many tolls must an Ayatollah pass through to be flesh and not cardboard? Will the ancient war between tariff lovers and toll enjoyers ever end?
>>65081223Find out this One Weird Trick to stop your opposition!
>>65081069Get the fuck out of Australia chinkmutt.
>>65080954Interesting read, but I really wish people like this would just present their information instead of using AI to turn it into a longform essay. I'm not even an AI-hater, I just don't see the point. I guess he feels like this format gives more credibility than a xwitter post, and it probably would except that he clearly didn't put more effort into it than a xwitter post.
>>65081172Just wait until you find out what privateering is
>>65080960Diversity is our strength.>>65081151I bet they would.
>>65080894You know why Japan attacked Pearl Harbor and invaded the Philippines, right?
>>65081199>Leafs cannot into privateering, the song
>>65080555Art of the deal.
>>65080937>>65080954>>65080969Lol, uou browns are funny.
>>65081245What about the AyaTollbooth?
>>65081102>Trump doesn’t survive the midterms.The maximalist projections for Democrats gains leave them with 58 senators next January. Removing Trump requires 67 votes in the senate. His government survives the midterms unless Republicans cross the aisle to remove him.
>>65080966>Do the shoes come with AI in them?They’re no longer going to be making shoes.
>>65080538Iran can push the funny button and begin invading US Gulf allies who can't effectively defend themselves. Just capture and pillage them city by city, Sherman-style.
>>65081478more like art of the STEAL
>>65081173ITS BOY'S SOUL
>>65081223Did you forget that they almost had a full blown civil war on their hands over a month before the bombing started?
>>65081223Everyone in Iran is a mossad agent. I wouldn't be surprised if their supreme leader was on the take.
>>65081504I’m so sick of impeachment bait. It is such a disgusting theatre to satisfy boomers and retards
>>65081518How much copium do I have to consume to be on this level of delusion?
>>65081058>>65081040i hope its a troll image because its so fucking funny. its just too perfect to be realthough i do believe the type of person to post this would also be the one to make a horrific one-pass AI image like this
>>65081134>Iran could have always destroyed the US's economy at any time with nothing anyone could do to stop or mitigate it>they just didn't, for reasons>>65081550Russia might have denied us Dollar Store D-Day, but but Iran might come clutch.
>>65081223>you own a phone shop in a nice neighborhood>the local basij commander covets it>you get arrested for being a mossad agent>he confiscates all your property
>>65080946Allbirds is a scam company though
>>65081504Impeachment is low IQ bait. If the Reps lose Congress, Oversight Committees are going for the Cabinet and they will not survivePOTUS is a lame duck, only 38 bills passed last year when averages before ran into the hundreds, everything else has been by EO
>>65081574>he actually was a mossad agent>one of the phones explodes in your hand
>>65081518>>65081571God please let them try this it'd be so fucking funnyI demand my Lucky Luke Dalton Brothers DDay invasion
>>65080538>Iran cripples the world economy by sinking any ship that tries to pass through the strait>The US sets up a blockade of its own>???>Give China more incentive to ship missiles over to IranGreat plan.
>>65080538They don't. Iran is going all-in on hoping they can survive until election season comes up. America is going all-in that Iran won't last that long and concede some deals.
>>65081060>we destroyed their launcher over and over thats why missiless keep raining down on telavivthis seem crazy until you realize jewish ammunition are so shite hezbolah as been shooting rockets out of the same truck that got bombed 4 times.Maybe next time dont have jacob sell the explosive filler for more shekels
>>65081102china can't prop up an ash tray
>>65081674With the power of powdered tiger penis and virgin piss eggs the ayatollah will return from the dead
>>65081674>Be China>Do nothing>US removes the bulk of its interceptors out of east Asia and redeploys them to the middle eastIt's that easy
>>65081690>do nothing while a couple launchers near the north korean border are missingimplessive
>>65080555you need to pay this guy's toll if you want to get that boy's soul
>>65080565the markets are up we won goys
>>65081004>le playing games and le finding out!
>>65081039>>65081073We all heard what Rubio said
>>65081628Obviously China can't ship missiles to Iran because of the blockade.
>>65081635>ate so many crayons that everything got muddled up
>>65081825>>>65081628 #>Obviously China can't ship missiles to Iran because of the blockade>>65081825
>>65080555NOT SO FAST
>>65081847China can afford to ship missiles the extremely long way around while also dealing with fuel shortages and economic pangs from the strait closureRussia can, but China really chant
>>65081817I mean I did kek
>people think there is a plan and the US people aren't just at the whims of a guy who changes his mind every few hoursThis has made all analysis of world events related to America completely pointless.
>>65081862I dunno seems like the whole gameplan is turning into one dangerous game of chicken to see which side can outlast the other. That being said, the longer this drags on for the worse it gets for everyone involved because neither side truly wins out of this. Either Iran devolves into a failed state, leading to the deaths of millions and having an even WORSE government form from it or the rest of the world experiences interruptions to the point it leads to a crisis and America suffers a reputational blow that it'll never recover from.
>>65081859https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BiodieselGermany war effort was entirely proped up by this.
>>65081576Then that makes it even more obvious that the market response doesn't mean shit, aside from that some investors think they can make money off of a situation. But I'm curious, how was a shoe company a scam? Were they just making shitty shoes?
>>65081873Trump, and US military officials came out and said that they didn't think Iran would blockade the strait. All bets are off after that. Trump is a mouth breathing retard. Iran will probably turn into a failed state, but not because of some grand plan by the US and Israel. There is no point trying to think of longterm or even short term strategy with Trump in power.
>>65080708Average IQ and geographical knowledge of a Trump cultist everyone.
>>65080917Yeah, that's the problem, not that it's 1,500km away...
>>65081920Iran must be punished because you cannot tax a natural body of water. If malaysia did the same thing to the streight of malacca it would get punished too.They thought they got a gotcha but they didn’t and the mines are going to be cleaned up too:
>>65081881Yeah achmed I'm sure the chinese will be pivoting to a war economy any day now for the sake of iran's chimpout
>>65081571>>Iran could have always destroyed the US's economy at any time with nothing anyone could do to stop or mitigate it>>they just didn't, for reasonsIt takes some time to force a bond market collapse. People including fund managers still think this will be over in a couple of weeks. Once its obvious that it wont, thats when the unraveling starts. F.ex right now millions of clueless euros are planning their summer vacations on the assumption that there will be enough jet fuel available, which it wont. The real shitfest starts this autumn.
>>65081969>iran's chimpout
>>65080565Oil futures are at $100 while an actual, physical barrel of oil currently sells for around $150, something in the market is terribly wrong
>>65080648Only a matter of time before those come into range too
>>65080691woah
>>65081973Holy fuck, a twitter nobody!
>>65081973Rich starry already turned back retard. You can pass the hormuz. You aren’t getting passed the gulf of oman/indian ocean. That where the blockade is in open water and no one coming to save Iran.
>>65081145The value of a human life cannot be measured with dollars
>>65082005>Trump successfully further limited the world oil supplyImplessive,With this most recent achievement, fate has in a single stroke, marked the decline of Iran and spelled a new era of wondrous prosperity and peaceful global dominance for the American burger, which promises to firmly stand in sharp contrast to the historically bloody ascent of Iranian powers and the cruel subjugation it brought to the humbler nations of the world. With the blessings of American quantum direct-current electricity, quantum aircraft carriers and quantum enhanced railguns will be the instruments with which America affirms its noble stewardship of 21st century world politics and offers the western world a different option; an humanist alternative to the depredations of Iranian leadership and the opportunity for a more equitable and dignified multilateralism.
>>65081847Nice shipping route retard
>>65081953They weren't until the anericans attacked themNone of these problems would exist if trump had just not started the war in the first place
>>65082018>Americans dont know what a railway is
>>65082024A train is not a ship retard
>>65080620>China buys oil from Venezuela and Iran"used to buy", anon. Past tense.
>>65080614Because Carter was a treasonous little shit.
>>65080657>The US just ran out of gasHahaha. Oh wait you were serious. Let me laugh even harder. Hahahahahahahahaha.
>>65080538The strait isn't only used by Iran, this fucks the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman & Iran.It's not normal to fuck over half a dozen allies directly while buring down the global economy.
>>65080708>We're now importing oil from Canada AND Venezuela.>nowWe've been importing oil from Canada and Venezuela for decades. The amount of Venezuelan oil we're importing now is a miniscule compared to prior years.
>>65082034The go to other straits and other transit locations, while Iran can't get out. Sorry to tell you but the only players fucked over are Iran, China, India, and Europeans (who now have to pay triple). US has millions in reserves, and by vassalizing Venezuela has access to billions if it was that serious of an emergency
>>65082039Anon open a mapand tell me which ports the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq should use.Funnily enough the 2 countries that could build new ports to aoid the current blockade location and Oman & Iran.
>>65082039Sounds like Europe and china should dump the 2 trillion and 600 billion dollars they have over the us treasury and finaly kill the petrodollar.And Japan too since taco has been attacking them too 1.2 trillions btw.
>>65081172Just wait until you find out what piracy actually is.
>>65082052>dood Europe and China should kill themselevs to own da Americans!They have litterally zero ability to do that because there is not a currency avaliable that can actually do what the US dollar can. If anything you will see Europeans squabble amongst each other and China do absolutly nothing to protect their "allies"
>>65082052>end the petrodollarThis is the strangest turd talking point, there's more than one reason why US debt is so desirable to purchase
>>65082070It isn't about the US selling debt it's about the tirllions of USD outside the US used for trade that return to the US when it stops being used for trade.Think all the money printing of the GFC and Covid happening all at once instead of being spread out over years.
>>65081953Thank you for bringing this matter to my attention!
>>65081690Unless they're going to do something in SEA in the meantime, they aren't really gaining anything.
>>65082039Behold: /k/’s most intelligent strategist
>>65082052>kill the petrodollarguess you didn't get the memo that treasury has been pursuing a soft dollar policy in accordance with trump's economic goals
>>65082034Someone clear this up for me because I haven't been able to figure it out.Is CENTCOM blockading ALL shipping going through Hormuz, or only ships that dock at Iranian ports?
>>65082177read centcom's actual words on twitter
>>65081707You understand the US has already blown through half a decade worth of missile interceptors in this war right? You don't just manufacture these in a few weeks.
>>65082358>You understand the US has already blown through half a decade worth of missile interceptors in this war right?YUGE if true. Source?
>>65082361Is /k/ genuinely this retarded and psyop'd? You can look up the missile procurement by year and the expenditure of missiles during this war. Even US generals have expressed concern over dwindling missile interceptors. We're straight up gonna run out completely for the region by late April to early May depending on missile type.
>>65082368>We're straight up gonna run out completely for the region by late April to early May depending on missile type.lol
>>65082039>Go to other straitsBrother, open up google maps.>only players fucked over are Iran, China, India, and EuropeansYou left out Russia which just made a deal with the Europeans which is going to make them a shit ton of money. Iran has been letting Chinese bound ships through the strait. India will now lean more closer strategically to China due to the US being retarded and unreliable and the Europeans are immensely fucked along with Australia who are already resorting to Covid style rationing. >US has millions in reservesThe whole reason why oil per barrel hasn't skyrocketed to $150+ is because we've already been dumping the already drained reserves into the market that will run out soon. >vassalizing VenezuelaThe Maduro regime is still in power and we have yet to get a single drop of oil from them.It blows my mind how fucking stupid some of you anons are. Debating a tranny advocating for sex reassignment surgery on 10 year olds makes better points than some of you. Goddamn man.
>>65082380https://missilestrikes.com/burnrate>inb4 sourceThey pull directly from CSIS and others.
So the ships are that are taking part in trump's blockade look to be running out of food, which is kinda baffling given America's logistics have always been top tier.However my question is, I can make out carrots, some sort of ground beef. But what the hell is the grayish brown slab?
>>65082039>The go to other straits and other transit locations, while Iran can't get outAmericas gulf allies need to import food via the strait, its not just for exports. You know that their lands are barren deserts where nothing grows? Once they start to hunger being allied to America doesnt look that hot any more. What is the american strategy to handle this? Oh! It doesnt exist.
>>65082077>it's not about debt>just increase the money supplyanon, why do you think governments are perfectly happy keeping a reserve supply of US dollars?
>>65081975Im mostly entertained by people thinking things will just drop and normalize overnight when a peace deal is eventually done
>>65081018He doesn’t care about the people?
>>65081172Who could do anything about it?
>>65082393Christ that looks like a worn out shoe insole
>>65082465When Iran is principally responsible for the strait being closed, offering to help the US hang every Ayatollah is far more appealing than kowtowing to the people threatening your food supplies and launching missiles into your country. Also, we can move more than enough food through a mix of land and air channels to keep people fed. You're making one of the dumber arguments on this front, where the actual biggest threat to food production is a lack of fertilizer in the spring rather than regional allies getting enough food imports.
>>65082393Cursed giant slice of döner kebab?
>>65080565The market always goes up because the money has nowhere else to go. When everything is a bubble, nothing is a bubble.
>>65082630That just comes back to the problem that nobody wants to even attempt the nightmare of invading and occupying Iran, and basically nothing short of that is going to solve the strait issue long term without Iran's consent. Unless the Gulf states want to commit to a 20+ year occupation of Iran, and then somehow find a competent military to do the job for them (because most gulf militaries are clown shows), their only way of improving the likelyhood of getting the Strait opened is by pressuring the US, since Iran can't really be put under significantly more pressure than it already is without putting boots on the ground.That said, I'm not actually convinced that the Gulf states are in too bad of a shape, even if we assume that the US basically doesn't help them at all. At the end of the day, they *are* very rich, and that wealth can be leveraged to paper over short term issues with things like food security. It might not be fun, but I'm skeptical that they can't find a solution if they are willing to pay a premium.
>>65082393>cut carrots>a whole hamburger patty>a slice of mystery meatprotip: if it wouldn't last a whole month in the fridge then it's not the last of the rations. they aren't even on macaroni and rice tier yet
>>65081102>China can prop up the current regime indefinetly.surely China will save you any day now
>>65081134>the oil-dollar cycle stops. Irans strategic weapon is the achilles heel of the american economic system which uses debt as money. Very few people understand what this meansThe petrodollar is to thirdies what being a sovereign citizen is to Karens
>>65082687>nightmareIran has been crushed into the dirt, any one of its neighbors could walk in and rape them
>>65081972It takes some time to force a bond market collapse.No. You are just a fucking cretin. The US economy is nowhere near collapse. dumb ass.
>>65082706Lol
So, how many troops are on site now? And I mean real soldiers, those that will have their boots on the ground, not the logistics guys. I feel we'll see a round 2. Iran has no reason to start anything, it's currently in a comfy seat as the timebomb is ticking for western economies, Asian being first. And I sure didn't forget about those generals being fired. They were fired for a reason.
>>65082706If that was the case, the Houthis would be extinct. You seriously underestimate just how fucking useless the gulf states are at matters of war.
>>65080538>our allies aren't doing enough to open the strait for us>we didn't need the strait anyway>the strait is open, ships just aren't going through it>OPEN THE STRAIT YA CRAZY BASTARDS>we are closing the strait
Oil is not an infinite resource.
>>65080635The lease was up, dipshit. Britain "gave away" Taiwan for the same reason ffs.
>>65080902Lol.
>>65082810>Britain "gave away" Taiwan>Taiwan
>>65081074Classic.
>>65081172>commit piracy and no one doing shit?>I've been a bad, bad girl>I've been careless with a delicate man>And it's a sad, sad world>When a girl will break a boy just because she can>Fiona AppleBecause we can.
>>65082012True statement. But we still have pennies.
>>65082024Your mom is a railway. She does trains.
>>65082809Didn't you hear? Bussy found a way to print oil
>>65082809>Oil is not an infinite resourceNo, it's an unending finite resource. We will find oil on Mars.
Why would they need to? A blockade hurts Trump more as prices and inflation rise going into the midterms.
>>65082831We've already found literal oceans of hydrocarbons on Titan.
>>65081953I like how the official retard narrative is that we are at war with Iran to open up the strait(which we now have double closed lmao) when the strait wouldn't be closed at all had we not attacked them to begin with. It only became closed AFTER our attacks. I suppose shills aren't paid to be rational though
>>65082847>w-we didn't need those ports anyway!>surely Trump will just give up and leave, total iranian victory is soon!!!pathetic
>>65082910What the fuck are you even saying retard-kun? Do you even know at this point?
>>65081853Prepare you're angus!
>>65081172Why didnt Iran put Denuvo on their ships?
>>65082849You could, if you wanted, 'mine' hydrocarbons from planets like Jupiter. Ethane, acetylene, and diacetylene come from methane there. It's the same shit as gold being rare on Earth, where it is pretty plentiful in space. So if we were ever in a real bind, we could try and mine asteroids.
>>65081186>>65081237They did for Venezuelan ships.>>65081195>under the laws and usages of war.But this is a Special Combat Operation. Congress hasn't declared war since WW2.
>>65080538>Strategically speaking, how does Iran with no navy/airframes beat this? Well, it requires a very advanced and hard to pull off move: Doing nothing.
>>65080727Can the market magically conjure crude from the ether? No? Well that it can't really help with the supply shock.
>>65083011They just opened the straight retard, blockade work.
>>65082912>Incomprehensible screeching
>>65083160Lets cross our fingers and pray that unlike last time this one lasts longer than 24 hours before falling apart.
>>65083202Oil just crashed 10%.
>>65081195But it's not a war, anon. If it was, Congress would have voted on it.
>>65082687>invading and occupying IranDoesn't need to happen
>>65081972This post did not age well kek
>>65082038We hadn't imported oil from VZ for 20 years my man
>>65082017>Cope goes back and forth between everyone suffering or China winningLol everyone's buying US oil except for you.
>>65083160Incorrect, the "Strait of Iran" will be open only for the duration of the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire.And given you know who's track record is almost as bad as the Russians when it comes to honoring cease fires.
>>65083211I unironically totally agree, it's not war until congress agrees it's war. I have to assume it was much the same for Roman senetors, right before The Fall.
>>65083340Nope, more interested in thier coke. I feel we will become more interested in the hidden value of importing Miss Teen Venezuela contestants, when that secret gets out.
>>65080538Because Iran Said fuck you mudda
>>65083472>shills are back to screaming it's the fall of rome again
>>65082017Pick a lane chinkshill
>>65083638it's the mighty power of being unemployed
>>65082908I like how you started out with a blatant lie and went south from there. When you do obvious propaganda, you don't faff around with half measures.
>>65083340>2020 was 20 years agoGoddamn but you're fucking retarded.
>>65082956>>65083211Precedents have established that announcing a "Special Combat Operation" or similar is equivalent to a declaration of war, in terms of international law. The difference only exists within US internal law, which is not relevant here.
>>65083789The 1s and 0s are not pleased with me it seems
Aaaaannnnddd trump already tacoed out
>>65083831>Iran saysRAISE THE FLAG OF KEKOLDRY
>>65083831>iran summits to opening the strait>as the US blockaded is still in effect>this is trump chickening outwhat
>>65082944N-nani!
>>65083462Can't wait for a mossad higher up plant in the IRGC to do the funny and fire missiles at some Gulf state. Hey, it even allows to reset/bypass the 60 days congress thingy.
>>65081898>But I'm curious, how was a shoe company a scam? Were they just making shitty shoes?I don’t agree with people that think they were a scam, but I know why. Allbirds made cheapish ($75-$200) fashion shoes differentiated by their natural and or recycled materials and fun colors. So they aren’t high performance athletic shoes or shit kicking work boots, they’re just stylish and comfortable, and probably not particularly long lasting if you treat them like a set of Thoroughgoods or Nee Balances. I have a set of canvas slip ons from them that I use as boat shoes. They’ll probably last me a couple more seasons, and they aren’t any worse made or more expensive than the Huk branded slip on boat shoes I had before I bought the Allbirds, but they look way nicer, so I’m a bit sad to see them go, desu. They’ve got a site wide 30% off clearance rn and I picked up a wool upper house shoe and another set of the slip ons for when my current set dies.
BRICS Bros, our response?
>>65081898Their shoes were a fad briefly then once the fad started dying they held an IPO then took the money and ran, the company collapsed almost immediately afterwards because without fad appeal nobody wants shoes that fall apart on you. Also it came out afterwards that they had marketed heavily on green buzzwords that weren't actually implemented and scammed the California government out of tax credits.
>>65083872That's what's probably going to happen since trump just publicly ordered netanyahu to cease all hostilities with Lebanon during their negotiations.On top of the fact trump is still maintaining his blockade so the strait, so it's still closed, due to AIDs.>>65083907>Disguise your transport as a cruise liner and you'll be immune to attacks.The Lusitania is crying tears of blood.
>>65083907>Enforce an economic blockade with fake mine releases, to save on limited stocks of actual mines.They lifted a Thrawn tactic. I'm impressed.
>>65083907Trump just said that they are working on removing the mines, so i dunno
>>65083958Trump’s a retard. Go off the physical evidence instead. Somehow he’s managing to claim to be losing despite trying to talk up his achievements.Again: he’s a retard.
>>65084010>Physical evidenceOil prices are cooling, tankers are moving.
>>65083907AIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEEEE
>>65083160They just temporarily opened* the strait because they got a ceasefire under the exact conditions they've been demanding for the last several weeks.*That is to say, they opened a channel on the iranian side of the strait that ships can pass through after getting inspected.>>65083208The stock markets stopped resembling reality since the COVID. Take a look at the actual prices people pay right now instead of futures trading.>>65083872Bold of you to assume Bibi won't just bomb more shit in Lebanon while openly ignoring the ceasefire.
>>65083907>@SchizointelUsername checks out?
>>65080708That the same Philippines that are staring down the barrel of actual no-shit famines if Hormuz isn't fully opened for another couple weeks because their fishing industry literally doesn't get enough fuel to keep operating the boats without that oil? Which are also nowhere near the Straits of Mallaca?
>>65084065>thirdie-kun has somehow convinced himself that iran has the ability to cause global famineIt'd be cute, if you weren't constantly slopping up our board with this shit
>Commander of Basiji still vacant>Commander of IRGC Navy still vacant>Deputy Commander of IRGC still vacant>Chief of General Staff of Iranian Armed Forces still vacant>Pool's been closed to Iran>Supreme Leader of Iran is hiding in his cuckbunker>throw in pic related for extra keksIt's quite literally a daily humiliation ritual for Iran lol!
>>65084132you just wait...
>>65084139>Ukrainian flag faggot cheering for the eneny of Ukraine's sole benefactorWhat in the fuck is this?
>Trump is now considering just giving Iran money for the uranium
>>65084168>Trump is consideringI've heard this one before.
>>65084159I guess your leader can only be pro-Russia so many times before they get the memo.
>>65084175see >>65084132
>>65084159>Ukraine's sole benefactor
>>65084132they only need a bomb strapped to a lawnmower engine to close the strait.they can lose infinity ayatollahs and the strait remains closed none the less if they say so.
>>65084159More like shilling for one Russia's biggest allies
Did Iran open the strait to make Trump look like a (bigger) cunt? Now shipping still isn't flowing through, which is what Iran wants, but it's the mutts putting in the effort and taking the blame.
>>65084292No, you're just retarded. Shipping is currently, and has been for awhile, been going through. The blockade is strictly for any ship attempting to enter or leave Iran.
>>65084298Then why aren't all the ships simply moving through, retard?
I thought Trump said Iran was allowing shipping? He wasn't just manipulating the markets before close? Noooo, couldn't be.
>>65082052They like the US being in debt, they won't devalue their own debt retard, they'll just slowly divest as bonds mature/expire and wait for American investors to pick up the expensive debt at high interest rates.
>>65082052>finaly kill the petrodollar.You realize that's what Trump wants right? He's deliberately trying to devalue the US dollar since a strong dollar makes US manufacturing uncompetitive
>>65084432The strong dollar doesn't make manufacturing uncompetitive retard, the problem is far more to do with resources mostly coming from China.
>>65082070>>65084432Which talking point, MIGA shills?
>>65082810Hong kong you ding dong
>>65084078you sound like a kvetching jew with no rebuttal whatsoever. yeah, people who are denied ressources they need will starve. too retarded to understand that?
>>65080614because only jews care about the middle east
>>65080680>This has backfired pretty spectacularly.what happened to all the us army bases in the middle east? oh yeah, they got bombed to hell kek 20 years of war in the ME evaporated in 2 weeks. fucking delusional retard.
>>65084432>Muh manufacturingShits dead, and it's West-wide problem. You'd be better of creating a new economic system, instead of going full hail mary.
>>65080725why would iran approve any of that when they can just bomb anything that comes close? are you stupid?
>>650844326D genius plan wins again!!!!
>>65080648Nigger they deleted a fucking strategic bomber wing OR TWO on Russia's far border.TELL ME HOW MANY REFINERIES ARE NOT ON FIRE.
>>65084447It literally does, a stronger dollar means you have to pay workers more in terms of global wealth for less product.
>>65080963yeah guys, the AI said jews are totally our ally and china is the real big bad
>>65084510Any global system where the US relies entirely on foreigners for manufacturing would just result in the US ending up a puppet state.
>>65080648put a map of russia in paint and draw the line that represents the limit of ukrainian drone range.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_SpiderwebBecause right there is all the siberian refineries.
>>65083922>trump just publicly ordered netanyahusince when does the servant give orders to the master?
>>65084548Its funny that in the US people think that Israel controls everything and in Israel people think that the US controls them.
>>65084554>Jews to the East>'Muricans to the West>Who is between them, controlling both?>Fucking Albion
>>65084535trve
>>65080937why dont they just mine for diesel
>>65084613Ah yes the diesel mines
>>65084559Jews to the left of meYankees to the right, here I amStuck in the middle with Cardboardatollah
>pool still closed
>>65084304Because SOME of the ships are going to, coming from or make port out of Iran you gorilla nigger
>>65084488>Taiwan, Hong Kong = bfdsamething.
>>65084634US has "closed" the pool mainly by closing Iran's pool, and Iran is just claiming that the pool itself is closed and open. Really I think it's going to be if the US can hold the blockade long enough for people to find out Iran can't do anything to stop them.
>Iran has caused global problems by closing the strait>Have no fear, the US will solve this by closing the strait even more
>War starts>Immediate /k/ tranny seething about Van Rippen'>Immediate /k/ tranny coping about everything>Over a month later>Gas still up 1.40 (at least)>The Strait is open (closed)>Total chaos everywhere elseAPOLOGIZE!
>there is a secret(even amongst rabbis) council of rebbes which decides the main talking points of the judaics which pass around the order via their networking(see protocols of the learned of zion), and the big talking jews like netanayahu, soros and rothschild are just the front face for their choices, the rebbes deal mainly in blood ritualism and other esoteric shit, then the rest of jews gets the plan done with their various other castes but they still hate each other and will try to outjew each other still Even guys like lenin answered to the council despite being atheistic judaics
>Iran unable to get their ports open>shills have to resort to elders of zion spamAt least use current and real kike conspiracies instead of the fake European one
>there is a jew at every single moment patrolling the boardhows the weather in telaviv?
>>65082024post a legible image at leastdo you guys have data caps or something over there?for fucks sake
>>65084696Sanctioned tankers passed the sea of Oman despite the blockade. https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/2045101626155831676
>>65085068>only one tanker passed the centcom blockade line in his own video>centcom reserves the right to enforce the blockade in any international waters, not just at the blockade line, meaning that tanker can be stopped or seized anywhere after passing the blockade line. this is what happened with the venezuelan blockade>that guy sounds like a scammy indian
>>65085090>reserves the rightThere is no "right"
>>65085209take it up with centcom
>>65084498>ressources Mad algerian subhuman typed this post. We will kill you all.
>>65080538The US economy is far more badly injured by an oil supply shock than Iran, which has been sanctioned as harshly as North Korea, is by the US blockading imports. Stopping Iranian oil exports only makes the supply shock worse since less oil is entering the global market.They've got Trump in a state of 4-D zugzwang.
>>65084548You are now realizing that Netanyahu is the servant because Trump doesn't care how many senators the kikes have bribed, he must be in charge, and it is setting a dangerous precedent for the jews.
>>65084010How does a retard keep dogwalking you all then?
>>65084053>under the exact conditions they've been demanding for the last several weeks.I remember vividly you third world retards saying the same last time and then having fits when it turned out to be wrong.
>>65080708The TDS on this site from all the shilling is too strong to ever admit this reality. There are people who still think Xi is a competent politician when his only two plays are "impotent sword rattling" and "doing nothing."
>>65084053>opened* the straitFor the first time in my life, I'm genuinely glad to not be the President of the United States, because Iran playing>The Strait is open! Terms and conditions are exactly as they were when it was closed!would have me bombing them again by now.
>>65084395He typically starts tweeting about two days before the advisors can strap him into a chair for a situation briefing and explain that Russia/Iran/whoever-the-fuck-is-next is full of shit (as usual) and making disingenuous public statements (again).
>>65085321The straight is fucking open now.
>>65085346Not for Iranian-bound ships though.
>>65085346Sorta. There's a lot to unpack with the Strait that media hysterics and brown people don't want to wrap their hands around. Right now, everyone's jockeying to control the freeze: if no deal is reached, but also nobody starts shooting, where do things end up. Iran wants to normalize shifting the regular shipping lane (especially the outbound route) into their territorial waters so that they can tax it and use the money for absolutely nothing weapons-related I'm sure. That's what the counter-blockade is about, the US saying "even if you pay the toll, you're just wasting money because we're going to politely but firmly ask you to go back around. Just use the normal fucking route, we have ships tap-dancing in their supposed minefield and they're not going to shoot you because they know damned well what's going to happen".
>>65084395What Iranian navy? Clearly ships are going through unless they're going to Iranian ports, in which case the US says no
>>65084459The one that reflects reality and not TDS
>>65085358So essentially Iran's bluff is being called. Why the fuck did people whine and say Hegseth and Trump couldn't do the job and that Chicom Milley would have done it better, then? This all went great, apparently. >but the jews got bombedNot my problem, I'm American>but the goatfuckers are sadGood.
>>65085375>So essentially Iran's bluff is being calledBy the Navy. But the Navy isn't the final arbiter in this case; the shipping companies are. From what I'm seeing on traffic tracking, the actual traffic is flowing through the Iranian route, because they've suspended the toll for now and "Iran will be that fucking stupid" is still the higher-risk proposition. So for as good as having shit moving again is in the short term, the pressure is on the US to make the next shake-up, and my addled middle of the night analysis isn't coming up with options besides>expand the blockade from "tax control" to "route control", with all the shit-flinging that's going to come from "DRUMPF RUIN OIL TRADE HE BAD">go live>fold and start offering sanctions relief or something in return for Iran giving up on leveraging the straight (DEFINITELY won't go wrong, and God have mercy on the catalog)None of that is to doom and gloom about it. It is a rough situation and deserves to be acknowledged as such. My money remains on things going live again once the ceasefires start expiring.
>>65085403So the strait is open to through traffic, the US blockade is still in effect, and Iran has bent the knee on charging tolls?
>>65085411I don't like the routing, and I don't trust the tolls to stay away. I think that's still letting them have too much leverage. But if you're feeling more optimistic about it, then good for you.
>>65085414We're seeing ships go straight through minefields and the blockade working, it's hard not to be optimistic. If Iran doesn't do anything stupid, Iran continues to be ground down. If Iran does something stupid, Iran gets crushed. The weight of US power on Iran is simply denying the mullahs a win condition, like how a fat man can beat you just by falling on you and crushing you.
>>65085418Perhaps you're right, maybe the routing will return to normal of its own accord as the situation cools. If so, then that'll be my last hangup resolved. A limited victory, but a limited war. Hopefully we've slammed them around enough that we don't have to do round 2 when they all come tumbling down in a few years.
>>65085428>limited This war made fools of everyone who doubted Big Heg.
>>65085411No, we're back to it being blocked again, apparantly
>>65085411the straight is closed and at least some iranian tankers were going through the blockade regardless, GG.
>>65085446>>65085510Looks open to me, with ships passing through the supposedly mined area.
>>65085411At this rate of winning, you guys will be right back at the status quo from before the war in no time!
>>65086344>right back at the status quo from before the war in no time!And Iran will not.
>>65086369Well isn't that a great comfort
>>65086489Yeah, that's kinda the point of a short, sharp war. Get it over with and get back to life as usual. What are you even malding about?
>>65086369No, their position will have improved considerably
>>65086512Please spell that out for me like I am a retarded child, because maybe you have a point in there that isn't just complete bullshit.
>>65086531The Iranians now know they control the situation via the strait and there's not much anybody can do about it. They also know government has lasting power. The system hasn't collapsed and the Iranian population hasn't risen up. America and Israel have diminished their ability to threaten Tehran, allowing them to act more confidently going forward.tl;dr They're going to be a bigger problem now because you can't stop them
>>65084547>>650845311. smuggling a bunch of fpv drones deep into russia is much harder than sending long-range strike drones, and the fpv drones have much smaller warheads too2. unlike a bomber, a refinery is a massive complex with lots of redudnancy. drone striking a refinery doesn't destroy it. but rather slightly disrupts operations for a few days.
>>65086552>The Iranians now know they control the situation via the strait and there's not much anybody can do about it.
>>65086552>The system hasn't collapsedI want to put a "yet" on that, but that comes with a lot of tonal baggage. A large part of why negotiations and the Strait are such a shitshow right now is that the civil government and the IRGC are telling completely different stories, which is also where a lot of the headline insanity originates from. There's a very deep fault line in their structure right now, exacerbated by the Cardboard Ayatollah's absence, and that's got a lot of potential to turn into an internal crisis.>the Iranian population hasn't risen upFair, but also calling for public uprisings in Iran is nearly par for the course. I'm not particularly surprised that they dropped it after the Day 1 announcement. What hasn't changed is Iran's record of neglect for the domestic situation, and with damned near their entire MIC to rebuild, it's likely to get worse, especially if they aren't able to normalize the toll and even moreso if the blockade on their exports holds. Iran has been on a crash course for years now, and even if the timeline hasn't gone up to "right fucking now", it's certainly been shifted to the left.>The Iranians now know they control the situation via the strait>They're going to be a bigger problem now because you can't stop themI suspect that you overestimate their eagerness to get bombed again, but you are correct in that the right retards can be emboldened by damned near anything. If they push that far, though, they have a lot less slack before everything breaks down than the US, GSS or Europe.
>>65086552being reduced to a terrorist organization is not exactly a good outcome for anyone
>>65082024they have the biggest freight rail network in the world
>>65087141But they started as a terrorist org
>>65084159Where is the cheering?
