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Well i've been saying for months now we were approaching a funding cliff if the UK couldn't sign the DIP. Originally I said it would be March/April, but the April 1st/2nd bridge contract kicked that particular issue out until June 30th. Which is the new deadline date.

FT finally published a fairly critical piece on the current status of the program.

https://www.ft.com/content/8766b40b-7692-4173-8754-fec49180efdc
>>
Since it's paywalled, here is the text:

Britain’s stealth fighter project faces a 10-week deadline to secure new government funds or risk its teams being disbanded, one of the defence groups involved has warned.
More than 4,000 staff in the UK — across BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Leonardo UK and other companies — are already working on the project, as well as on a demonstrator aircraft designed to test a range of technologies for the broader Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), according to industry executives.
The supersonic demonstrator jet, a UK-only initiative, will be the country’s first since the one built for the Eurofighter Typhoon almost 40 years ago.
A stopgap funding deal for the projects, agreed in March, is set to expire at the end of June.
“If there is no contract, if there’s no money flowing, then as industries we have no choice but to contain our cost and redeploy these people,” said Herman Claesen, managing director for future combat air systems at BAE.
Claesen said the risks were “clearly understood by all parties involved”, adding that “we will never want it to come to that point”.
GCAP is an international programme led by the UK, Italy and Japan. The UK test aircraft — due to be ready to fly by the end of 2027 — is seen as critical to the programme’s goal of having an advanced fighter jet in service by 2035.
The UK last month agreed a deal to allow work on GCAP and the demonstrator to continue past a year-end March deadline. The deal followed concern at delays from international partners, in particular from Japan.
The funding enabled the three countries to sign the first international contract with Edgewing, the industrial consortium consisting of BAE, Leonardo and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries-backed Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement.

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>>65111148
The contract had originally been expected by the end of last year but was delayed amid wrangling between the Ministry of Defence and the Treasury over funding for the government’s Defence Investment Plan, its 10-year military strategy.


The money, however, only runs to the end of June as the UK continues to finalise the plan.
At BAE alone, between 1,800 and 2,000 people are engaged on the two projects. Claesen stressed that despite the funding concerns in the UK, at no point has work ever stopped.
“It’s not been easy, it’s not been straightforward. We’ve had to make it work. If you talk to engineers in Edgewing or BAE or Leonardo...they would say they hadn’t noticed,” said Claesen. Relations with Japan in the programme, he added, were “still excellent”.
“If one partner is wobbling a bit, or not making the immediate commitment itself, of course you can ask questions and that’s what they’re doing. But they want the commitment to happen,” he said, adding that the UK government was “trying to provide the assurances”.
Simon Barnes, group managing director of the air sector at BAE, said the company had “absolute confidence in everything continuing as planned...we’ve got to focus on the timing element now”.
Rolls-Royce and Leonardo UK did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
There is no precise figure for the final cost of GCAP but the MoD said in 2023 the bill to the UK could come to £12bn over a decade.
The ministry pointed to the opening of the GCAP headquarters in Reading and its first international contract as evidence of progress.
It said GCAP “sits at the core of the UK Future Combat Air System” and is “strategically vital to UK military capability, strengthening international relationships, our Nato commitments and sustaining our world-class defence industrial base”.

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>UK, Italy & Japan joint project
>UK insists on building the test plane themselves alone
>End up slipping it all up because they’re too broke to do it alone which is why they partnered up with Italy and Japan to begin with
????
>>
>>65111212
Even worse, their test plane is ACTUALLY the tempest test plane, the only real thing it's testing for GCAP is the general airframe shape, the new intake/inlet design, and maybe some computer stuff.

Most of the sensor testing is happening on Excalibur, and Japan recently started running their own C-2 testbed for sensors/computers.

But yeah, the 2027 demonstrator is even still using EJ200 engines, the GCAP engines wont be flying until the 2029/30 flying prototype, that's exepected to be built in Nagoya.
>>
It should be pretty easy for the brits to fund this after their elections, right? Or is there no way for them to pull it out of their big omnibus defense spending bill?
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>>65111236
If they were going to do that, they should've done it ~6 months ago when Japan/Italy expected it.

Or back in February when Starmer visited Japan.

It really looks like the Treasury isn't budging, and the MoD isn't cutting anything big enough to cover the gap, and both sides are now playing chicken with GCAP as the inflection point.
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>>65111242
So what are MoD's priorities that they're putting ahead of GCAP? I could understand if seeing how little they could actually contribute to Ukraine convinced them that their money needs to be spent on basics instead of pretending to be America-lite, but I also feel like that's a concern that should have been addressed years ago.
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>>65111280
Dreadnought and SSN-AUKUS top the list

Ukraine support and rebuilding munitions stockpiles is next.

Then they have a massive problem with military housing they're trying to fix too that's costing almost 10 billion pounds.


So yeah, GCAP is left by the wayside. Along with other programs (Type-83 being a big one for the navy).
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>>65111145
>UK will be kicked out
>Germany will join Italy and Japan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dv13gl0a-FA&pp=ygUHZGVqYSB2dQ%3D%3D
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>>65111354
> If I make up arguments you've never made then I can win this time!

Lmao

if you actually bothered reading any of my posts on the topic you know i've never ACTUALLY said the UK would get kicked out, what I've been saying for months is they'll end up being internally demoted, even if on paper they get to sit at the big boys table with Italy/Japan.

On paper they'll always be a tier 1 co-founder/co-developer, in practice they'll likely end up a tier 2 parts supplier at best.


You can argue my timeline was off, but only because Japan/Italy decided to offer the UK a 3 months bridge contract.

The end result is the same, the UK doesn't have the money to pay for the retooling of warton and the rest of the Capex required for Phase 2 of GCAP, and they'll have to renegotiate the workshare with Italy/Japan, the exact mechanism for this shift is still to be determined, but it's almost assuredly going to happen at this point. Already you can see UK media outlets subtly shifting the talking points away from a sovereign UK jet and talking about leading the software and AI side of the program, it's the exact PR shift you'd expect before the UK pivots away from building GCAP into becoming a software/integration/design partner.
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>>65111375
Dude, it was a joke. chill out.
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>>65111380
I mean, the's the same dismissive bullshit that always gets posted when this topic is discussed, it's a braindead retarded take that ignores the nuance of the debate.

If you just want to derail the thread, then great. You're doing the lords work.
>>
>>65111383
Jesus Chirst, what's wrong? Did you have a bad day? You're taking this waaaay too seriously when you don't even have a single chicken in the game.
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>>65111389
I'm just tired of retards dismissing this as "normal" uk budget bullshit.

Or ignoring the momentum of GCAP outside of the UK.

Especially faggots who pretend GCAP has to stop all work without the UK being a part of it because clearly the UK is the one leading GCAP.

I just want people to put in a minimum amount of effort to learn about the topic before commenting about it. Especially if they're going to start the thread by strawmanning my argument in an identical way to how it gets strawmanned in every post about GCAP on this board.
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>>65111354
>Germany engineering autismo
>Italian aesthetics designers
>Japanese Nintendo & Sony electronics, audio & monitors
Holy kino
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>>65111465
Interestingly enough most of Italy's work so far is related to sensors """ISANKE"""" which I don't know what is, and other techy stuff like having an augmented reality cockpit.
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>>65111498
Italy is also working on the gearbox and some other specialized parts for the engines.

And they also are working on greater weapons integration prep work and upgrading the physical factory required to assemble the airframe and final planes.
>>
>>65111498
>shitalian tech
Yeah the project is dead on release
>>
>>65111304
Burning all that money on Ajax didn't exactly help either.
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>>65111719
Nah, Ajax has barely cost anything lately.

Ajax cost ~£3 billion between 2010 and 2020. But the Treasury has only paid another ~£480 million since 2023.

The Capex required for GCAP would probably be ~5-10x that.

And since Ajax was mostly paid for in pre-covid budgets, the money is already gone and wouldn't have gone to GCAP anyway since it didn't start until 2022/23.

The idea that Ajax is somehow stealing GCAPs money is just not grounded in reality.
>>
>>65111465
>>65111498
>augmented reality cockpit
>designed by shitalians
I'd rather trust Chinese drones over this
>>
>>65111727
Imagine if they had just picked up the Booker contract instead of wasting billions designing bullshit that somehow doesn't work despite being 80% the same.
>>
>>65111769
To be fair to the MoD, i'm pretty sure it's a fixed price contract, so it's actually costing GDLS money to fix it, but the delay is fucking rediculous.

All of that being said, I personally don't think the UK needs hundreds of armored scout vehicles or a heavy armored brigade, and should instead be pouring money into mobile anti-ship/air missiles and radars. Especially longer range ones that can cover the GIUK gap to help cover for the lack of a surface fleet, along with GCAP can provide the bulk of the UK's defense needs.

NATO/EU don't need british tanks and scout vehicles when there is no way to deploy them in europe without commandeering a civillian transport fleet or piecemeal shipping in vehicles with C-17s.
>>
>>65111577
>>65111741
Still better than anything your irrelevant country makes.
>>
>>65111853
It's also just dumb cause Italy has done pretty good work on the Typhoon program and they've also had success in naval EW/Radar and other similar shit that shows clear modern capability in related fields.
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>>65111145
>GCAP faces funding cliff

I have written several posts in previous threads explaining why Bongladesh is in a state of technical but not formal bankruptcy (yet). I am hardly surprised. The carriers are going to go next. These people are total frauds. And no, I dont care if you have a loicense for that.

t. Sweden
>>
>>65111853
>>65111884
It's just the usual thirdies seething. Do not feed them.
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>>65111888
>sweden
more like the resident gook
>>
>>65111888
Putin's lies
>>
>>65111888
Svenska enlighten me on the bongland bankruptcy
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>>65111888
To be fair, you're probably the gookshill retard, your posts are just like his.

And you also grossly exaggerate the issues with the UK and start devolving into jerking off some doomerism bullshit that would never happen.
>>
>>65111304
Their navy is also a huge drain too
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>>65112332
Yeah but they can at least defend most of the navy.

The carriers are fucking retarded, but the rest of it makes sense.


Japan also has a decent sized (expensive) navy. They are even also going to operate F-35Bs.
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>>65111242
I still don't get what your whining about though, either they fund it when the elections are over and people go back to not giving a shit, or they don't and whatever flavour of tard this schizo shill is cosplaying (>>65111888) spends a few weeks being particularly insufferable.

My take is that it's still probably going to be fine and they'll change the payment datyes/delivery timelines for other shit to make it all align, but feel free to think what you want.
>>
>>65112390
Delaying a ship or a tank doesn't save money; it increases the cost due to inflation, contract penalties, and keeping 40-year-old legacy gear running.

So tell me, what exactly are they going to push? Dreadnought? No, the nuclear deterrent drops. Type 26? No, the steel is already cut and pausing the shipyards costs more than building. Challenger 3? The Army throws a hissy fit anytime someone even suggests getting rid of tanks. The only thing big enough to raid to find £12B for GCAP is the F-35 budget, which means leaving the two £3.5 billion carriers sailing half-empty for the next two decades. Which the MoD/Navy would never allow since it would be a national/public embarrassment.
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>>65112349
>Yeah but they can at least defend most of the navy
Most of their navy is stuck in drydock though. Plus I think the average age of their ships is 30+ years
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>>65112432
Yes, but that's because they've wasted money on carriers, carrier air wing, and an armoured brigade they can't use
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>>65112424
>Challenger 3? The Army throws a hissy fit anytime someone even suggests getting rid of tanks

Fuck the army, Bong should always Navymax
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>>65112462
I agree, but the army still pretends NATO needs them for a land war in europe despite the fact poland and germany have that job covered.

And despite the fact the UK has no sovereign ability to deploy their tank brigade to europe even if they wanted to.

And the ultimate irony, if there ever WAS a major land war in europe, you can almost guarantee the politicians would refuse to ever deploy the challenger 3's to europe and would instead keep the vast majority in the UK for home defense.

So yeah, even the reasoning behind why the UK has tanks (to fight a land war in europe) is just pure fantasy bullshit.

The UK should focus on their navy (but not the carriers), and their airforce.

Instead they pour money into an army that is increasingly worthless for modern european defense needs.
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>>65112424
Delaying individual boats for Dreadnought/AUKUS, delaying individual boats for T26/31 or the FSRS missile deliveries or integration for eurofighter or F-35, they might cancel or push out the 12 F-35A's although the nuclear strategy the other day did mention them specifically.

Starmer was saying it was on his desk not too long ago so it's clear that it's been kicked right up to him for the difficult decision. He could pull from other areas of gov or just tell the treasury to suck it up and do it anyway. Hell, there was noise on the internet recently that looked a lot like prepping the groundwork for removing the pension triple lock citing defence needs.

You're right that it would cost more overall in any case, but that's never stopped the treasury before. But anyway, as I said, it's kind of pointless speculating as it's all in a state of comms blackout until after the elections and there's nothing anyone on here can do to change anything. They might already have squared the circle and be ready to go full on the second the election's done, or they might have only found enough money for another interim contract in the hopes that this Iran shit blows over before too long and gilts drop far enough that we can start financing shit again without worrying about a rout.
>>
Honestly, they should cancel dreadnought and sell one of their carriers to Brazil or some shit. They don't need strategic nuclear weapons, tactical nukes are good enough. Also they should cut their F-35 buy short and cancel GCAP and spend all of that money on making sure the shit the already have works.
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>>65112483
Do you honestly think Starmer is going to walk back a brand-new, highly publicized nuclear commitment to NATO and Washington just to find a fraction of the £12B needed for a Japanese joint venture?

The F-35As are under £2 billion

That still leaves ~£10B missing for GCAP even if you canceled all 12 of them.

Dreadnought delay is never happening, it along with SSN-AUKUS was rated higher than GCAP in strategic need.
>>
>>65111148
>The supersonic demonstrator jet, a UK-only initiative
Which means it's not really important if it fails.
This is the UKs tempest demonstrator that Japan/Italy were fine letting the UK work on as it was a domestic UK project, but now they can't even seemingly finish that with their own money.
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>>65112485
>tactical nukes are good enough
The UK doesn't have any tactical nuclear weapons, or a delivery platform with which to put them on.
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>>65112253
Not him but the UK is spending more on welfare and pensions now than it makes in income tax
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As an American there's nothing more entertaining on this board than FCAS and GCAP threads. Keep it up, it really validates the stuff my president says.
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>>65116533
Not really, even this GCAP problem isn't a major problem for the larger GCAP program.

It's mostly just a problem for the UK, if they can't pay for their part of the program, they're not going to be able to build the jet themselves.

This wont stop GCAP from being built, it'll just potentially slow things down and mean the UK has to buy their planes from Italy or Japan.
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>>65116580
It's more about the fact that so many problems are appearing at the very early stages of development. If there's are disagreements about design and troubles with budget now, just wait until the engineering problems start to emerge and the costs balloon. GCAP is def better than FCAS but the idea that you can produce something a generation more advanced than the f35 at a fraction of the cost is delusional. I look forward to reading these threads for the next 10-20 years
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>>65116671
What problems?

It's all funding, which is fixed the moment another country pays for it (japan).


You're moronic if you think there are some glaring deep issues with GCAP beyond the current funding delays.
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>>65116680
The main source of entertainment and problems was def FCAS but I really don't think GCAP has a great chance of succeeding. If Japan wasn't involved I would have no faith in it. At best it will be a slightly upspecced f35 with worse software, a gen 5.5 at best. None of the necessary r&d for next generation technology is taking place and clearly can't be afforded. The combined per unit cost will the up significantly higher than the f35 so what is the point, besides to treat your bruised egos?
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>>65116775
>None of the necessary r&d for next generation technology is taking place
Such as?

XF9-1 is being developed into XFP30

Japan already flew a stealth airframe (X-2 Shin Shin) and had 3D thrust vectoring on that airframe too.

Most of the R&D at this point is software, sensors, computers, cooling, electrical generation.


So if you think there are major technologies they're lacking and aren't currently developing, go ahead and name them.



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