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depends, are they allowed unrestricted Temu import?
If yes, easily

>>65146423
What's the point? J20 can't even fly steady when not piloted by female pilot(shorter and lighter than men). And it's not a carrier board jet. Also F22 is not in USN. The the fuck is your point srsly?

>>65146409
It depends on what they do and what our response is. If you asked me 10 years ago if Iran would last 2 months against a US attack and we would have no plan against them cutting the strait I would have said hell no, but here we are.

At this point I don't think Hegseth could competently invade Mexico. A Nation that famously has no air force, no armored force, barely has a navy and is on our border.

>>65146495
>Iran is winning because they can drone random civilian ships
Genuinely, how do you remember to breathe being this stupid?

>>65146495
Listen man, WW2 has been a national myth for plenty of countries but the reality is the conditions for such a feat are long gone, current generations don't listen to radio to hear what the president has to say, in fact nowadays the president is a buffon shitposting at social media like 14 years old redditor on crack, FDR could perfectly explain to the masses why christian values demanded US wage war against Nazi Germany and the masses actually believed he has a point to justify sacrifices and hardships, nowadays Trump blasphemes against Jesus online, I don't even want to start with his personal life but I think you get the idea, it's over, no country in the world qould be capable to pull what we did in the 20th century, there isn't anything left for this global civilization but a long decline.

>>65146495
10 years ago people were predicting Iran would be able to sink US carriers in a situation like this.... they've massively underperformed

>>65146495
I remember nothing about hypersanics speedboats sinking the entire USN Fleet

>>65146506
>Iran is winning
I didn't even have to say it, you already think that

>>65146528
>>65146529
>herp derp

you're not addressing the points.

>>65146409
>I hate the US so much I'm going to ally with terrorists
Look I know Trump is fucking terrible, but this is just retarded, France.

>>65146533
What point? It isn't 1970 anymore. The U.S. is the number one oil and gas producer. And Trump's little funny in Venezuela plus the blockade of Iran has given the U.S. control over the world's most valuable commodity. Gas prices are high, they aren't crippling the U.S. economy. Stock market is up, jobs are okay, and natural gas is at multi-year lows.

There never would have been a better time for kinetic action against Iran.

>>65146533
the point is that your nigger ass assertion that this is somehow going worse for the US than you thought is only proof that you haven't been paying attention most likely because you were in your mommies womb 10 years ago

>>65146546
>The U.S. is the number one oil and gas producer.
No dipshit, it's a world traded commodity and an inelastic one at that, who controls it doesn't actually matter when gas is $400 a barrel because the demand for it will tend to not fluctuate unless everything is going to shit. US produces oil? Well whoopty fucking do, tell the oil companies to not trade it globally and that might matter half a fuck to US consumers, as it stands those companies will still trade it at market value because why the hell wouldn't they? Barring a law that keeps US oil in US markets exclusively we, as regular schmucks, will not see a single benefit from that save for the fact that our whole economy will not crash and burn into complete oblivion but that's of little consolation when people start paying $10 for a jar of mayo.

>>65146519
Uh Americans didn't give a fuck about WW2 until Pearl harbor, alot of the country supported Germany up until that point.

>>65146575
>is somehow going worse for the US than you thought
It is going much worse than we thought.

>Who could have possibly foreseen that the strait would be closed?

>>65146578
>$10 for a jar of *store brand* mayo

>>65146578
Oil is nowhere near $400 a barrel. It's not even remotely close to that. How can we have an adult discussion when you can't even get simple facts right?

>>65146590
It's hyperbole, pretend it reads "really really high". Damn autists man.

>>65146596
Okay, but you're making it sound catastrophically high. The price of oil today is about what it averaged during Obama's first term before the U.S. tracking revolution.

The U.S. in particular isn't reliant on the Strait, which gives America more flexibility to deal with Iran.

>>65146603
>The price of oil today is about what it averaged during Obama's first term
CAP, holy fucking CAP anon. Goddamn bot bullshit.

I'm in Alabama and paying 4.50/gal. I have literally never paid anywhere close to that before.

>The U.S. in particular isn't reliant on the Strait
You missed the point. The fact we don't rely on the strait does not mean this will not affect our economy or oil prices. Oil is a globally traded commodity. The price our companies sell at will still be the market price which is determined by the supply around the world. In other words this will keep getting worse the longer that strait is closed. It could get so bad that people will not be able to afford to go to work outside of cities with public transportation.

>>65146603
>which gives America more flexibility to deal with Iran
**Relative to countries that didn't cause this and have nothing to do with this and were never trying to deal wit Iran at all.

Big flex anon.

>>65146583
>It is going much worse than we thought.
this is my point stupid fuck, for 20 years the expert consensus has been that if the US tried something like this iran would be able to sink at least 2 carriers in the opening salvo, has it been worse than that prediction? gosh talking to brown people is pointless

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>>65146608
Holy shit, dumbass. You must be twelve. The U.S. goes through a mideast oil chimpout every decade.

Only this time we make more than the lot combined.

>>65146614
I wasn't trying to flex, it's just a comment on strategy. If you don't want a nuclear Iran, and their recent conduct has reinforced that desire, now was the time to strike.

>>65146583
>Who could have possibly foreseen that the strait would be closed?
Everybody did. The majority consensus was actually that iran's navy would be able to maintain a direct blockade, rather than just a threat based blockade for at least 6 months. Their navy didn't last a week.

>>65146596
Well I think it's worth stopping the IRGC because they killed a hundred trillion of their own people during the protests and if you take issue with that figure you're an autist

>>65146616
The Israeli djinn are protecting the carriers with their dark magic, but after the ayatollah returns with Allah the Great Satan will finally be destroyed.

>>65146608
>I'm in Alabama and paying 4.50/gal
If this is true you're getting ripped off because the average price in alabama is 4.08 of course in reality you don't live in alabama, or america at all.

>>65146409
"In coordination with Iran" basically means "Giving each other enough information that you don't shoot each other by accident".

>>65146608
Nigger I live in Shelby County and I can look out my window right now and see 3.79, shut your lying paki mouth.

>>65146657
3.95 here in Louisiana. Feels bad man. I don’t oppose what’s happening in Iran, but our current leadership isn’t being particularly clever about doing it.
Ostensibly we’re not hitting Iran hard enough considering their ceasefire violations.

>>65146669
Splattering their entire leadership day 1 was pretty good.

I also think the uno-reverse blockade is sneaky genius.

>>65146681
I’ll agree with the leadership being splatter, but the blockade was something that should have happened sooner as to never give Iran the option of charging for passage. Now that’s the goal of the war: to prevent them from being able to do that.
Frankly this should have also been done when the people were rebelling at-large. There was too much waiting there.

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>>65146697
>>65146669
>>65146608

>>65146722
Two of those are me. I’m the Louisiananon talking to the Alabama guy.
Do you… really not understand the notion of a conversation?

>>65146736
Whoops. Make that the Shelby guy I was talking to. Got him and Alabamanon mixed up.

>>65146616
>for 20 years the expert consensus has been that if the US tried something like this iran would be able to sink at least 2 carriers in the opening salvo
What experts were those? IRCG leaders? Ayatollahs?

>>65146409
> Will a Iran-France combined fleet be a competent
No. Next question.

>>65146839
The US military thought that we have a harder time, did drills and tests and were able to sink some of are ships I don't know what the rest of the world though because I don't care about them.

>>65146409
Why would France fight alongside Iran? Why would France fight the US?
Are you retarded?
The answer to the last question is yes, btw.

>>65146409
>Iran-France combined fleet
So just the french fleet? What the fuck?

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>>65146997
France is a islamic country.
Frenchmen and Iranians are brothers and they will unite to defeat the Great Devil.

>>65146409
What Iran fleet?

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>>65147313
Apparently this is all you need

>>65147338
If your naval ambitions are on par with Somali pirates. Otherwise they're hellfire bait.

>>65147396
The funny thing is, Iran has not, as far as I’m aware, even tried to seize ships by boat. All they’ve succeeded in doing in damaging a couple ships by flinging drones at them.

The Iranian navy is even worse than Somali pirates.

>>65147409
The last time Iran tried was during the Reagan era and it went about as well as you'd think

>>65146839
Pretty much everybody including the pentagon (and we're talking actual analysis, not the fake simulations they make that are intentionally unwinnable for the US) came to the conclusion that within at least 1 supercarrier would be sunk if not 2.

>>65147551
You can produce a source for this, right? Because this sounds insane given how well protected every single US carrier is, and how primitive Iran's missile stockpiles are known to be which really matters when it comes to hitting moving targets like ships. Losing 1-2 carriers is something you would expect from a US-China war over Taiwan, not against fucking Iran.

>>65147779
I doubt he can. War games would certainly expect the USN to take losses, but losing two super carriers is straight up retard brain. The USN super carriers are not going to park in the Gulf

>>65146423
Implessive!

>>65147892
I seem to recall wargames 20 years ago, where they assumed an Iranian strike on CVs in the Gulf.
Maybe that is the scenario he was referring to?

>>65146596
Hyperbole is what retards and women use in a discussion. Should I assume you believe Iran "controls the strait" without being able to ship anything through the strait themselves?

>>65146616
>for 20 years the expert consensus
The "expert consensus" regarding probable future military campaigns are always an assessment of possible realistic military capabilities. And theoretically Iran was 100% capable of sinking 2 USN carriers depending on what we did and what they did. Hell, theoretically if we were retards they still could.

Predicting the course and casualties of future wars, is by its very nature, nonsense. Regardless of how many "experts" you line up. But not having a plan for a very obvious very nearby very strategic choke point? Claiming that it was completely, quote, 'unforeseeable' that they might block it off? That's not predicting courses of a war and casualties you'll take, that's just incompetence.

>>65146625
>Well I think it's worth stopping the IRGC because they killed


No you don't, if you did there's far more worthy regimes that need to be toppled and we're allied to one of them. The only reason we have any beef with Iran is because they ousted our puppet and Israel is our ally.

>>65146637

I got gas last week but right now the mapco down the street is at $4.05, you can google this shit you lying crap basket.

>>65147934
>ur a tarded femanon because i want to take things literal and nitpick

The point was that when gas gets expensive it doesn't matter where its produced. The producer is not going to see a price that is not reflective of the increased market value of the product unless the producer nation has legislation specifically addressing how the market impacts domestic prices. If this triggered you consider being less of a snowflake.

>>65147920
Probably, but like all predictions it's pretty much complete supposition and scenario spamming. What a commander will do, who he communicates with, what systems they have operational, even how the humidity affects someone, some day, somewhere, can all play a factor and completely eliminate 1000 scenarios that would have seen 3 or 4 carriers down at the bottom of the gulf. We never have any idea what's going to happen in war and I thank god our military is as professional and capable as it is. That does not however mean that because we didn't lose ships that what is currently playing out is just fine. The fact that worse things did not happen does not make the bad thing happening suddenly ok because some guys 20 years ago thought of this way worse thing.

That any of this needs explaining is kind of really dumbfounding and stinks of russia-tier cope.

>>65146409
Iran has nothing left to contribute and France's equipment is all a generation behind the US while being as badly maintained as the USS Lincoln.

>>65148053
>The point was that when gas gets expensive it doesn't matter where its produced.
Yes it does because if your country produces gas money flows into it rather than out. This fuels investment in more production which brings in more money. Increases to production also fuel side industries that help unrelated domestic industries grow. Are you retarded or just a nigger that doesn't know what an economy is?

>>65148079
>Yes it does because if your country produces gas money flows into it rather than out.


We're talking about gas prices my guy.

>>65148073
Iran still has (I hope to heavenly Christ) F-14's. Teh fact they're the TopGun plane instantly means they style on anything in the French Navy or Air Force. Hell they unironically make F-18's look like dogshit just by virtue of being Tomcats.

>>65148085
People with more money deal with increases to prices better than people without. So again it does matter where its produced.

>>65148094
...Do you think that because the oil company makes money regular working Americans do too?

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>>65147920
This one? It was pretty controversial iirc

>>65148100
Do oil companies need to hire more people to make more gas to meet global demand? Do those people spend money in the economy supporting other businesses? Do these other businesses also hire more people if they want to meet growing local demand? Are you the the most retarded gorilla nigger in the congo?
The answer to all these questions is yes.

>>65148064
I guess 20 years ago the Soviet-tier AShMs were a lot more dangerous, relatively speaking.
So yeah, just run enough wargames and eventually you will find a scenario where the USN loses carriers, and you learn how to avoid that scenario in the process.

>>65148112
That one is infamous of course, but I seem to recall it sometime post-Iraq invasion 2.0

>>65148115
I hope you're not stupid enough to believe that the Oil and Gas industry can be a realistic replacement for the rest of the economy especially considering the clients you seem to expect it to cater to will have less and less money as time goes on. That second part isn't even as important as that first part. Your post is dumb. The notion that we should not worry about gas prices rising because the oil companies will do well is just very stupid and completely disregads the hardships American families are facing and will face if the prices continue to increase. As I said in a previous post, the biggest contribution that producing oil has is ensuring that the economy does not completely collapse irrevocably. It will not spare average Americans from increased prices.

>>65146495
Dude what? Everyone thought Iran would be a much harder nut to crack. They were reduced to lobbing shitty drones at unescorted tankers and online shitposting in a month.

>>65148137
>Everyone
see:
>>65148064
>>65148041
Especially the part where some guys 20 years ago thinking of a way worse thing not at all having any impact on how bad the bad thing currently happening is.

>That any of this needs explaining is kind of really dumbfounding and stinks of russia-tier cope.

>>65148141
The whole Iranian strategy was to put up a stiff initial defense and then switch to an insurgency when they inevitably lost. Iran getting completely clobbered, so badly that A-10s were getting used and reapers were deleting everyone who was outside at night in Tehran, by a smaller force than was used in 2003 was a surprise to everyone.

>>65148132
None of what you said disproves my previous points. It's just an emotional appeal with nothing to back it up.

>>65148132
You can worry about rising gas prices while also recognizing the economy can cope. Further, if we're looking at the continuum of countries and their ability to weather a prolonged closure of Hormuz. The U.S. is at or near the top, alongside Canada and (unfortunately) Russia. All of this is relevant to the strategy of ending the war on favorable terms.

Moreover, in some ways this war encapsulates the entire Trump doctrine. It's a pretty potent signal that the U.S. won't spend its times protecting waterways that everyone else is reliant upon. It's also a good signal to business that long-term you want to invest in markets like America that have abundant natural resources and safe trade routes.

So in sum, an extended closure of the strait is worth it to defang the mullahs and shift the global economic center of gravity towards the U.S.

>>65148148
nice dubs, still the Iranians lost so had that Trump can't open up the straight and has to go ask the chinks if they'll pretty please tell them to cut it out
bombing won't do what bombing can't do, that should have been the lesson to learn form the GWOT. but here we are again

>>65148148
I really don't understand what your point is (and I know you think that's a win it's not because of this next part) but wtf does any of that have to do with what I posted?

What do you actually have a problem with?

Is it the implication that war has no guaranteed outcome?

The part where I know how advanced and OP the military is and was 10 years ago?

Where I imply we should have a plan for the strait being closed

Like, which part exactly? Which one of these sounds just incredibly unreasonable to you?

>>65148153
You didn't prove anything, you supposed an outcome that I called unreasonable and stupid because you're creating a scenario in which the entire US economy is replaced by oil production.

>>65148162
They were expected to put up a fight at least on par with 1991 Iraq. They couldn't even manage that against a much smaller force. This was a surprise. Thus, Iran underperformed expectations.

>>65148161
The Strait is largely a distraction for America. The Iranians are doing it because it's literally their only card to play, and it inflicts vastly more pain on themselves and the rest of the world than it does America.

U.S. gas prices are half if what they are in Europe and Asia is actually running out of fuel. Even better, U.S. natural gas prices are at multi-year lows because its a byproduct of fracking and the infrastructure to export it out of the U.S. isn't there yet. So there's a flood of cheap energy in America right now.

>>65148174
Iran isn't the leader of several alliance structures nor does it's ruling regime care all that much about such silly things as popularity
but the US and it's leadership does
losing it's allies or losing the midterms to the point Trump becomes a lame duck isn't a good outcome for the US or Trump
>but US gas
how would you feel if you didn't have breakfast this morning?

>>65146423
>nose wobble during a roll
never buy fly-by-wire off wish.com

>>65148185
Iran cares so little about popularity they killed 30k of their own citizens over it.

>>65148185
>losing it's allies
Like the ones Iran attacked and continues to threaten? Or how about the one who went to the UN and said that an Iranian seizure of the strait cannot be tolerated?

>>65148159
The post you're quoting, directly states that the US economy can, as you put it, "cope". But you immediately imply that it doesn't in fact say that in you first sentence. And then expect me to keep reading. The fact the US economy can survive this, does not at all justify why in the hell it ever should. It doesn't explain why we're "defanging" the mullahs, why we're threatening to destabilize the entire region, or why we're making American families pay ever increasing costs on everything. It doesn't explain why we didn't lead with a plan to immediately reopen the strait. Or why the hell we are even giving half a shit about Iran at all. You don't care about these effects because you think some grandiose plan or outcome justifies it intrinsically and then further presuppose that outcome baselessly. When your entire MAGA talking point of not being reliant on the strait completely ignores what I have posted repeatedly (and none of you have actually contested), that a global commodity does not only affect those reliant on one part of it but everyone that trades in it.

>>65148172

you're not answering the question

>>65148205
>Like the ones Iran attacked and continues to threaten?


Yes, the ones that keep the US dollar relevant by making it the world reserve currency through its association with petroleum. Those allies exactly, yes.

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>>65148205
yes, those like Saudi Arabia who've revoked the US the right to use it's airspace or the UAE who've openly stated they are considering kicking out the US presence
are by any chance Israeli? it's just that this "muh UN" is typical cope of theirs
and it would explain why you don't care about the rest of the world, as long as Iran burns a bit more

>>65148185
Those are all fair points, but don't they militate in favor of kicking the shit out of Iran? I mean it's obviously been building these capabilities for years with the goal of being able to collapse world energy markets. Isn't it better to deal with it now then have Iran decide to close the Strait while America is distracted elsewhere?

And for all the issues, the admin has played a relatively good defense. Prior to the war kicking off people assumed a closure of the Strait would lead oil to spike to $200 plus and gas to hit $10. The fact its not even half that, it isn't even at the highest price since covid, is fairly remarkable.

>>65148093
I'll believe they still have Tomcats in the skies when I see them. F-4s have already shown they can give the naval aviation a run for their money in spite of having no updates since the 80s.

>>65148219
>I'll believe they still have Tomcats in the skies when I see them.

If They don't I'm sending the Navy a very rude letter. They could have cratered the runway, no sense in blowing up Maverick's plane. T_T


Despicable

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>>65148224
It's so goddamn beautiful

>>65148207
Oil is a commodity, but it does physically have to be moved out of the ground. And while it is fungible, there's a a major difference between a country that produces enough of the stuff and being a country that doesn't especially if you buy oil that has to sail through the Strait.

If your entire fixation is just on gas prices, then fine this war is a disaster. However if you must think maybe it's a bad idea for Iran to have a nuclear weapon which they would happily use, then the case can be made that a temporary increase in gas prices might be worth it.

>>65148170
I proved it matters where gas is made if prices increase. You didn't even try to disprove me, instead you kept pivoting to different taking points.

>>65146579
A lot supported germany throughout the war, and thought the only ones the U.S. (we) should be fighting were the japanese.

>>65148218
>militate in favor of kicking the shit out of Iran
the US has already tried that and it has arguably placed it in a worse position than before it tried
I'm sure that if the US wants to fully commit to it they can
but that means further emptying the stockpiles of critical munitions it would need for a fight with China, getting stuck in GWTWO: mountains and shit boogalo, further pissing off the rest of the world and taking some very big political gambles on the home front
>have Iran decide to close the Strait while America is distracted elsewhere
you can't prevent Iran form doing that short of occupying the bit of Iran next to the straights due to how imbalanced the requirements for attacking and defending are
they have had that ability all that time and didn't use it. but now that they have and arguably it's working for them. they will be more likely to do it in the future now that the taboo's already been broken.

>>65148216
The UAE has emerged as having the most hawkish stance towards Iran in the Gulf. Saudi Arabia has fought a decade long proxy war with Iran. Neither is going to abandon the US over this. If anything, they've been pushed towards the US, particularly the UAE.

>>65148234
>GWTWO: mountains and shit boogalo
There's that tired old line again.

>>65148236
but still the Saudis closed their airspace and the UAE has officials posting on social media that it's time for the US to go
I agree that they both do not like Iran one bit
but the US/Israel kicked this war off without warning them, they didn't manage to keep them form being hit and now they are okay as their one main source of income is blocked off.
a defense guarantee that doesn't keep you safe isn't worth much.
they are stuck living next to Iran so they'll have to deal with them in the long run so learning to get along and just agreeing to disagree is looking a lot more attractive by the day

>>65148231
> there's a a major difference between a country that produces enough of the stuff and being a country that doesn't
As I stated numerous times, yes a country that produces oil would keep its economy from collapsing irrevocably. That does not at all make it an economic island that is not impacted by the international markets or put it in a position where it will in fact do well relative to where it would be if the crisis was not happening at all.

>However if you must think maybe it's a bad idea for Iran to have a nuclear weapon


Here's two questions. Why would it be and for who?

And another, why would they want a nuclear weapon?

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>>65148249
>officials posting on social media

>>65148244
well you move in to secure the straights, that's nice open coastal plains right there
but then you start hitting the hills and mountains
you can't really occupy the lowland without controlling the high ground.
to keep the straight open would also mean a long term commitment and one that would require a lot of boots on the ground.
to big of a commitment to risk them just sitting there while Tehran still rules the rest of Iran, so now you are going to have to start going into all those mountains

>>65148234
I mean maybe. It doesn't seem obvious to me that the Iranian regime is long for this world, if Trump is willing to apply the pressure. Maybe he isn't, which would be a blunder. That being said, I think people tend to underestimate the precarious position the IRGC is in and overstate U.S. losses and economic exposure.

As for the stockpiles, they will never be enough. No great power war has ever been fought on stockpiles, it's all current production (deterrence on the other hand may be impacted by decreased stocks).

>>65148253
I'd tend to agree but sadly Trump's made it so you have to care
and ofc that doesn't open Saudi airspace
airspace that the US needs to restart to conflict with anything resembling the same intensity

>>65148263
Saudis opened their airspace a week ago.

>>65148232
>I proved it matters where gas is made if prices increase.


No you didn't, you minimized the effect of raising gas prices on the economy by saying the oil companies profits and supposed expansion would compensate for losses elsewhere. Where I clarified that while the economy of oil producers could survive it does not negate the impact global markets have on the price of the commodity.

>>65148264
>A week is 4 days

>>65148262
the IRGC is perfectly happy to keep shooting as many of it's own people as it need to stay in power
and it can get it's bullets and cash for the Caspian thanks to the russians and chinks
I'm also not saying that US economic losses would force it to stop. just that voters don't like the war, care about their buying power and that Trump and co care about how they vote
plus that if the US is willing to shove it's allies into a recession over what Israel wants without so much as a heads up than it's going to start losing allies.
not even over hurt feefees but because that means that US simply can't keep them safe.
just think of this as say S.Korea
the US failed to defend it's regional allies from getting hit, it's failed to enforce it's will and it didn't give two fucks about what it's regional allies wanted.
but their problem regime does have nukes and chemical weapons.
that's where talking to the north becomes a better long term plan than just hedging on the US

>>65148233
They were right, why should we send a bunch of American boys a thousands of miles away to do what Occidental boys should be doing for themselves?

>>65148277
Even if the war lasts until November, the midterms won't stop it.

>>65148266
You so haven't addressed any of my points and keep trying to dismiss them because you clearly can't. How very Hebrew of you.

>>65148283
Why would I address baseless suppositions and wishful thinking?

Ok fine:

>The US oil sector will grow though and be bigger than the economy is and replace everything we lose anon!!

Nuh-uh.

>>65148282
true it won't but as a lame duck and with a hostile congers elected at least in part on the effects it's having
the ability to keep it going will be curtailed and the Iranians and co will take advantage of that in the negotiations
>>65148264
the current status is murky with Saudi officials saying it is or isn't
but they did close their air space to the US in order to influence it's behavior towards talks and the US did respond the way they wanted
does that look like stalwart allies hell bend on burning down Iran to you?
it looks like me that they want a (lasting) peace so they can export oil again without interruptions for a very long time

>>65148277
Is that really a bad thing we dont have a bunch of hangers on using guarantees from Unlce Sam as a substitute for strategic thinking in their foreign policy?

It's not 1950 anymore. I appreciate the logic that a network of alliances is in theory good for the U.S. economy and safety, but over 75 years that system has been corrupted and now it feels a lot more like America is spread thin protecting allies who don't actually offer it much. Like does it actually make sense for the military to subsidize stability in the middle east and south east Asia that ultimately is used to outsource jobs from America?

This is getting off-topic but I've been thinking about this a lot lately. The U.S. rose to superpower status in a highly unstable world. In such a condition the U.S. had a major advantage because it was safe and stable. Globalization has been fighting back the tide trying to make places like Hormuz as safe for commerce as Houston. Maybe it's to America's benefit if people have to more accurately take into account the costs of instability when deciding whether to invest in America or abroad. At the very least foreign countries need to internalize more costs of defending themselves and their interests.

>>65148289
Because you want people to believe your arguments and take your side. Instead you are shitting and crying hoping people will take your side out of pity.

>>65148282
also the rest of the world doesn't really care about US domestic affairs
they just want their oil and if they think that pressuring the US is the fastest way to get it they will
and while the US can deal with a lot of pressure it isn't immune because it still needs it's allies to keep the bigger problems like china contained

>>65148302
Cool story bro

>>65148303
Shouldn't these allies be pressuring the terrorist regime that's blowing up their ships?

>>65148307
I'll take that as a concession.

>>65148295
Iran's demands are totally unacceptable. American regional allies will pull it back in. Non regional allies will heavily pressure the US to prevent Iran from permanently seizing the Strait. This isn't going to change anything substantial beyond some partisan rhetoric in public.
>>65148303
Which is precisely why the war would continue regardless of the midterm results.

>>65148297
>we dont have a bunch of hangers on
>we
annon you are no more American than I am and I speak four languages
it's those hanger on that allow the US to project power globally
without the gulf states the US couldn't have attacked Iran in the first place, without the Europeans they couldn't have routed the logistics to do so. and good luck trying to keep the chinese contained without the japs, gooks or pinnoys
the US is present in those regions not because it cares about world peace and the end of human suffering.
if it did it would have bases all over Africa.
no they are there because it furthers US goals
it keeps those wealthy regions on their side, it allows them to extend their reach, it allows them to contain it's rivals and to do all of that on the (relative) cheap

>>65148311
i bet you would

>>65148323
It's what people typically do when the other side runs from a debate crying, yes.

>>65148327
>these things will happen!
>nah
>ur crying!!

Like I said, cool story bro.

>>65148335
You already conceded you don't need to do it again.

>>65148310
here's the thing, they can't place any more pressure on them than the US already is
so they can't
but they can put pressure on the US
it's also worth nothing that Iran wasn't attacking their ships until they where attacked
so you pressure the US to stop attacking them and you can resume the trade
but you can't pressure Iran to give in because if the US's pressure isn't doing the job, yours won't do it
>>65148314
>Non regional allies will heavily pressure the US to prevent Iran from permanently seizing the Strait
but that's literally what they did
the US was proposing operation something something sounds good on Truth to force the straight open (well ask commercial shipping to pretty please start up again)
and those regional allies responded with closing their airspace forcing the US to shut it down (oy vey)
that's those regional allies preferring Iran keeping control over the US escalating things again
keep in mind that the proposed Iranian toll amounts to a rounding error for them
>precisely why the war would continue
but annon the war's already over with the cease fire. why? because Trump won't face congress.
now imaging what happens when the dems control congress with a nice big fat blue margin they will force Trump to go and ask them for war powers and they will make him pay trough the nose for it.
that's what's going to change the negotiations, the cost of continuing will be higher for the US('s administration) than just giving in at least in part to Iran

>>65148339
I don't think you proved your point anon.

>>65148262
>No great power war has ever been fought on stockpiles, it's all current production
I agree, and the US doesn't produce nearly enough to force Iran to do what it wants
so how would it fare against china?
oh and china is still a critical link in the US's production and it's actively trying to fuck with the US's production

>>65148344
I did, you just don't like it and can't refute it so you refuse to engage with it.

>>65148349
Show us where you proved it anon.

>>65148354
Read my posts I laid it out so simple even a nigger could follow along.

>>65148360
I disagree and further call you a liar. Show your work fool

>>65148343
>but that's literally what they did
Correct! Singapore went and addressed the UN over it. Seizure of the strait is enormous, intolerable breach of modern international laws and norms. Iran will not get its way.
>Congress
If the US looks like it's getting cold feet, one of the Gulf States will invoke their treaty and force Congress's hand.

>>65148362
That's cause you're a stupid nigger. I would just be wasting my time if I tried to explain it more to you.

>>65148348
implessive!

>>65148369
Lol, look who's running. Run along now anon, don't explain anything.

>>65148381
I explained it and you didn't attempt to engage once already. Don't get mad at me because you blew your chance.

>>65148385
Engaged it with as much effort as you posted it. Explain your work or concede that you are in fact a big dumb dummy.

>>65148407
Why are you typing like a grade schooler? This is 4chan just use a slur faggot.

>>65148411
I accept your concession you big dumb dummy.

>>65148415
Now you're just repeating me are you actually 5?

>>65148420
>still conceding

Gosh anon, no need to insist. I humbly accept your concession that you are in fact a big dumb dummy.

>>65148423
>still repeating me
Did my posts upset you that much?

>>65148426
>continues to concede

Anon, that's enough. I see you are in fact the dumbest of the dummies.

>>65148428
Three and a half hours to get a grown man posting like a 5 year old not bad, but I can do better. Gotta get my post count down too, no one wants to read through a dozen "no u" responses even if they are quick and easy.

>>65148432
>nothing but concessions

Man anon, so much big dumb dummying from you.

>>65148435
Yep I concede champ good job you won.

>>65148439
I know anon

>>65146608
Now adjust for inflation (ie look at the data in real terms).

File: buzz.png (2.01 MB, 1024x1024)

2.01 MB PNG

>>65146578
> Barring a law that keeps US oil in US markets exclusively
Anon, the US Congress passed exactly such a law under the Obama admin. It gives the president broad authority to unilaterally ban the export of oil/gas/derived products.

>>65148367
>Singapore went and addressed the UN over it
has that done anything, at all to change Iran's position?
Iran is still doing it an Singapore hasn't deployed any coercive measures that we can observe.
so it's fair to assume it hasn't and it thus proves my point.
unless third parties are ready to put their own navies in harms way to force the straight open all their bitching to Iran won't do anything. with the exception of Irans partners so China and Russia, but they both seem to be supporting Iran.
>one of the Gulf States will invoke their treaty
annon, the gulf state trough their actions such as closing their airspace to the US when it is planning to restart hostilities is making very, very clear that they want this war over with.
every day that the straight is closed is them losing billions in oil revenue. the tax that Iran wants to impose and split with Oman isn't even a rounding error on the value of the cargo being carried.
every week it stays closed is what that tax would cost them in several years.
and it wouldn't cost them but the buyers because they pay for shipping.

>>65148297
American rose to superpower status because every other major industrial power kicked the shit out of each other and then did it again in rapid succession during the first half of the 20th century, leaving America as the last one standing. America then developed this system of dollar trade and alliances the world over, offering security for American access to markets, that enabled it to become unfathomably powerful and essential to the globe.
The hideous greed of corporate America s what led to the outsourcing you speak of. Indonesians and Thais and Chinese or whatever didn't steal our jobs, we sat by and let GM and company happily sell them away.
Once under a stable government again it was inevitable that China was going to be a major world player, as they had been a regional player going back centuries. The Japanese themselves had elements within their government pre-war that said as much and advocated for good relations with China before their military went full retard. Pretending like China was always going to be a cheap global factory that we could either ignore or prevent from becoming consequential was delusional, but we certainly didn't have to give them as big a leg up as we did.

>>65146409
De Gaulle is okay, and the French are relatively proficient but De Gaulle can't come close to matching the sortie rate or air wing size and capability of a us CVN. US DDGs also have better sensors, better compartmentalization, much better combat system integration, and veteran crews who actually have been shot at before (practically every sailor in 5th fleet has a CAR at this point). So even in a 1v1 of CSGs the frogs will be relearning their swimming abilities

>>65149084
Shouldn’t you be in a droning video sucking off a Chechen, Dmitri?

>>65148115
>let's make our entire economy pivot around the oil sector
Jesus fucking christ, people are unironically advocating for giving America dutch disease.

>>65149062
The UAE has launched its own independent strikes on Iran. No one, absolutely no one wants Iran to permanently seize the strait it is a massive, unacceptable breach of international norms and law. The world isn't going to simply bend to Iran's will. It isn't even close to being strong enough for that.

>>65149150
That's why I'm totally confused by Bridget's hunsbando, what the fuck can French fleet do in the fucking strait with the fucking irgc (a designated terrorist organization).

>>65149658
I'm not so optimistic, you do know that fucking Egypt blocked Suez for over a freaking decade with no one dare to do shit about it, right?

>>65149693
Not a comparable scenario.

>>65149729
Please elaborate.

>>65146506
It sounds like it should be easy for the US to take care of then?

>>65149794
Already has been mostly. Iran has lost its ability to strike long range targets daily.

>>65149794
Maybe USA doesn't really care about the strait? Rumor has said that Miss PM of Japan just secured a big oil deal with US not long ago. And Aussie and kiwi are begging for Alaskan oil too.

>>65146534
They are not allying dumbo. Lmao.

>>65146603
>you're making it sound catastrophically high
He isn't saying it's that high either. Fucking hell.