(1/4)~~Facts~~-The US bombed multiple areas of Iran, including mostly civilian infrastructure and societal structures such as hospitals, schools, power plants with the goal of inflicting unbearable costs upon the civilian population.(I will come back to this later).-This constitutes a violation of international law and UN Charter Article 2.4. -A school was hit, killing at least 100 schoolgirls, constituting a war crime prosecutable in international courts.-Iran retaliated against American military bases in the Gulf and power plants/reservoirs in Gulf States. -The Gulf states act as US proxies.~~Analysis~~The Iranian nuclear question: Iran a rational actor. Using the rational actor model, Iran should pursue nuclear weapons because it is the ultimate deterrent. The US doesn't like it and feels less secure, as does every other state, but it shouldn't see it as provocation. The way to undermine the Iranian nuclear program is by fostering friendly relations. If Iran feels more secure, it will feel less need to acquire the nuclear weapon.Reasons:-Since the end of WW2, the international system has been a unipolar one with the US at the top. The victors of the war decided on an order and set of rules that place the US first. However, since the 2010s, with the rise of China and the stay of Russia, the world has become a multipolar one. This war and the recent tariffs, leaving international institutions etc are an attempt to resist the multipolarization of the world. In essence, keeping American power.
(2/4)-From the Israeli perspective, it is about the regional dominance of Israel and the creation of Greater Israel. Iran is the last bastion of resistance against Israel and its colonial plans in the middle east, and Israel sees it as an existential threat(because remember their goal is to annex half the middle east). Historically, there had been 3 major powers in the middle east: the Ottomans, the Arabs, and the Persians. They balanced each other and the middle east was a peaceful region. The introduction of Israel shattered the balance of power.-Domestically in the US, the political system and the media is controlled by the Israel Lobby and the CIA/Mossad.Why does this threaten international peace?The US attack accelerated the Iranian nuclear program. First, the US killed one of the foremost anti-nuclear voices in Iran in Ali Khamenei. Second, the US attack further convinces Iran that it needs the nuclear weapon for its survival. Friendly US-Iran relations might convince Iran otherwise.The attack comes at a time when Iran and the US were at the negotiation table, a strong pattern with US attacks on other states. This undermines trust in the US. Other states will be doubtful to negotiate with the US. The blatant violation of international law and customs and disregard for international institutions degrades decades of advancement in international rule-setting and communication. The US vassal states(Canada, UK, EU, Australia) still trust the US, perhaps hoping to gain some crumbs out of the war, like Denmark. However, they will soon regret it when it is their turn, like Denmark when Greenland is annexed in a couple of months.Who wins the war?Long story short, the US cannot win the war without using nuclear weapons.
Currently, a war of attrition is waged with both sides attempting to bomb each other into submission. However, Iran is better equipped economically, psychologically, and geographically to sustain such a war. The US method is unsustainable economically: Iran uses cheap armaments while the US defends using expensive weapons. Psychologically, Iran is a deeply religious country having had its religious leader martyred. They are fighting for their survival. They will be able to bear most cost and prolong the war. It is way more likely the populations of the US and the Gulf states will be fed up before Iran. Iran has many proxies including the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas that can wage guerilla warfare and resist in the Gulf states. Meanwhile, the US proxies are merchants concerned with money, and having huge foreign populations present. If an economic crisis develops(it will), it is likely those states capitulate.With the US seemingly losing the current stage of the war, the logical next step would be to send troops on the ground for an invasion. Iran is a mountainous country, so a ground invasion will result in great human cost for both sides. Assuming an invasion is successful, what happens next? Is the US hoping to use a puppet government in Iran? Iran is a country of 100M+ people. This will never work unless they use severe repression and go back to a police state like it was under the Shah. However, the US has neither the military capabilities nor the economic resources for a long term occupation of Iran. The best case scenario(unlikely) for the US would be Iraq, which experienced a breakdown of society after the US invasion and resulted in numerous loose groups vying for power. A more likely result would be Vietnam, where the US was never able to fully invade, with resistance coming at the guerilla level.The logical next step, then, would be to use nuclear weapons. I think there is a decent chance this happens, due to multiple reasons, mostly domestic politics.
(4/4)Solutions to achieve a peaceful settlement:-The solutions can be internal or external, meaning they can come from inside the US or other states.-Internally, the US become a democracy and the American public must realize their leaders are warmongers. Regime change must happen, the CIA must be disbanded etc. The goal is to have a government that believes in dialogue and friendly relations through economic, political unity as basis for peace.-Externally, a coalition of states can cripple the US economically and put an end to US aggression. The strongest states outside of the US are China, Russia and India, and then the EU. It seems like the EU is doing the opposite, as they are considering entering the war. It seems like India is not concerned and China and Russia are the only ones that have realized humanity is at stake. Therefore, the effort must be led by China and Russia and India must join.-The perpetrators of these war crimes(including Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and Netanyahu) must be brought to justice to set a precedent, lest international custom is degraded.Terrorism:The attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure constitute state terrorism. The goal is to inflict unbearable costs upon the civilian population by starving people, turning off power, or just killing people. The hope is that the population rebels against the government and the US can install an alternative government. They have already offered Reza Pahlavi as an alternative, but it will never work because Pahlavi is hated in Iran.~~Conclusion~~The US should strive for friendly relations with all countries, if it wants to maintain international peace. Instead, it strives towards aggressive actions, violence, covert operations plunging us towards perpetual war and annihilation.tldr strong chance of becoming a world war, strong chance of turning nuclear and wiping off humanity
fuck the German authorities, the BND, CIA, the United States, and NATO
Iran forces gays to transition so war against them is BASEDgays should be allowed to be gay without having to take Alan Turing juice.
>>42892041why do you think they have such a backwards regime you retardthe US and the entire occidental world keep them that was so they stfu and give us cheap oil
>>42892052backwards? that's how women want it, they don't have to work or go to school they just stay at home and play with the kids while the men toil in the fields or go drill for oil
>>42892000>-A school was hit, killing at least 100 schoolgirlsAlthough an image taken directly afterwards shows a trail originating from the ground before doing a 180 in the air and falling back to the ground>~~Analysis~~Is completely flawed because it assumes that Iran wants peace with the West and hasn't spent the last 47 years literally chanting"Death to Israel, Death to America, Death to the UK">Iran retaliated against American military bases in the Gulf and power plants/reservoirs in Gulf States.And bombed civilian infrastructure intentionally, such as airports.>it is about the regional dominance of Israel and the creation of Greater Israel.Source?Where does it show, other than "feelings", that Israel has made ANY attempt to expand their borders?Remembering that Gaza was already Israeli territory to begin with because I know you will defer to that conflict.>the Ottomans, the Arabs, and the PersiansWhere is the balance? Where are the Persians?Oh. Subjugated by Islamic extremists. >Domestically in the US, the political system and the media is controlled by the Israel Lobby and the CIA/Mossad.Source: Feelings>Long story short, the US cannot win the war without using nuclear weapons.Sure thing buddy.Factually, though, all the US needs to do is remove the existing leadership structure.You are likely equating this to Iraq and Afghanistan, but the situations are COMPLETELY different.
>>42892000>chaser thoughtsDon't care.
>>42892052>>42892041In 1952, Iran elected Mohammad Mossadegh, a social democrat as president. Mossadegh introduced a series of reforms meant to liberalize the country, including nationalization of oil companies and increased taxes. However, he was not favorable to the west and American and British petroleum companies. The US and Britain staged a coup in 1953, and overthrew him, ruling through the Shah. They kept power through the secret police, which abducted and tortured dissidents. When the Shah fell ill, the people saw their opportunity and the Islamic Revolution happened in 1979. So the reason why Iran is an Islamic fundamentalist country today is the fault of the United States.t. chaser
>>42892083you are brainwashed by the western media. its ok though because I am confident in my predictions. the war will never end unless the us uses the nuclear weapon or admits defeat, which it wont, when your government promised you 2 weeks max for the war to end. we will see american troops on the ground very soon, even though your government promised you no troops on the ground. and its likely the nuclear weapon will be used
>>42892109No.The reason is, and they take full responsibility for it, and apologise to their kids and grandkids profusely, is the citizens who fell for the "Socialism good" trap
>>42892117That is a literal paid JIDF troll, kikes put them off leash whenever they start depraved baby killing bombing rituals in the region, since is Purim they want Iranian blood for their demon god YHWH
>>42892117What was your own experience growing up in Iran, and what religion do you follow/prefer?Just curious, because it seems completely at odds with the attitudes of 90% of Iranians and 100% of Secular Iranians.
>>42892109here's a very deep blackpill 4 u I read a lot of cultural history books in high school cuz I was bored and socially outcast - including some on drug policyi wish i remembered the name of this book or where it said it i know its like a semi famous drug topic guy but basically the gist is a lot of us morphine/codeine/heroin supply used to come from Iran and Afghanistan - both medically and otherwise and in the 1960s I wanna say, the government changed the import standards for poppies as part of the drug regulation and the later DEA kg-per-drug-allowed standards for controlled substances basically poppies from Iran/Afghanistan are high in codeine and morphine - which get you fucked up there are other types of poppies that don't express much codeine or morphine, and instead have another compound, thebaine, that, by itself, does not produce a high, but can be chemically transformed into other chemicals - most famously oxycodone (oxycontin), that get you very high with no risk of diversion of the poppies into clandestine heroin, but really the us government just wanted to fuck over afghanistan and iran because poppies were/are a top crop for the region and the US was ashamedly a big customer, this policy change led to tasmania producing huge electric fenced off fields of non psychoactive poppies, and of course the oxycontin epidemic and later fentanyl epidemic because our government refuses to allow wider distribution of pre-dosed morphine and codeine to treat painpuritans believe you should just suffer when in pain
so my point is, people blame the sackler family for causing the oxycontin epidemic, but really the government's failure to produce appropriately low dosed pain meds for everyday pain and then getting people hooked on these super-synthetic compounds at very high doses with no off-ramp and no provision for tolerance just to fuck over the iranian and afghanistani governments is what caused it, who in the us government MADE those policy decisions I cannot say, but it would be fascinating to find out
>>42892000>>42892006>>42892013>>42892029Surprisingly based and intelligent for a chaser ain't gonna lie >>42892083Please die soon, retarded goy pig
>ottomans and persians>peacefulHistorically illiterate award for you
>>42892170>Surprisingly based and intelligent for a chaser ain't gonna lieAn analysis based on thoughts and feelings is "intelligent and based"Haha.It really isn't.Everything mentioned is predicated on likely 1 or 2 news sources that OP consumes to confirm their biases, and not to analyse critically.The use of PESTLE doesn't go outside of what OP WANTS to put forward.>t. Somebody who worked in Intelligence Analysis
>>42892192Remember to die soon goy piggy
>>42892192It's based on empirical evidence and prediction models such as the rational actor model, game theory model, as well as theories supported by empirical evidence such as the balance of power theory, the liberal trade theory, the repeated game theory(part of game theory), and terrorism theory. I try to put aside my bias and emotions, and focus purely on the evidence and data. I don't care at all about Iran or the Us or Israel or who wins the war. i see every politician, every country as a rational actor playing its card in the game of international relations. I am amoral, in the sense that I don't care about good and evil because it is subjective and subject to perspective. Stuff such as crimes against humanity are necessary to preserve international law and peace, and part of learned behaviour for states on how to act. The breakdown of them would unearth progress in international cooperation. it has nothing to do with morality
>>42892083anon be like >source??? source?? source??? but proceeds to not leave any source about what he's saying on his own post>pic rel
>>42892229>I don't care at all about Iran or the Us or Israel or who wins the warYes you do.Anybody with half a brain cell can see that you are firmly in defence of the IRGC."This is why the IRGC needs nukes""Ignore the fact that I have completely disregarded the IRGC sourcing multiple terrorist regimes, killed thousands of their own citizens, cut of Internet access for anybody in the country that isn't IRGC or CNN"You couldn't be any further from neutral.Your "Empirical Evidence" is cherrypicked, and you claim your opinions as factual and honest.Tell me how you utilised the yardstick when you performed your analysis.
>>42892253I'm not the one proposing an "analysis" based off of feelings and marking it as fact based and unbiased
>>42892263what a lame and lazy excuse
>>42892268You are more than welcome to commission an analysis if you so wish.
>>42892277you're more than welcome to suck on nigger dick, although you probably already do that
One last thing I forgot to mention as a reason for the west's militarism is the Leviathan by Thomas Hobbes. This book heavily influences western political thought. In short, it's the belief that freedom and liberties and all the good things of life come from ruling over others, rule comes from strength, and security comes from power. Hobbes stated that life was "nasty, brutish, and short" and can only be solved by being strong. Therefore, to preserve western style of life, you must dominate everybody else.t. chaser
>>42892285>Feelings
I want to see zog lose
