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https://www.newsweek.com/texas-republicans-now-at-risk-of-losing-seats-in-midterms-not-gaining-them-11085694

Texas Republicans could now lose seats in the November 2026 midterms, not gain them.

Because of a ruling on redistricting in the state, the party is unlikely to pick up new seats from redrawn electoral maps.

Meanwhile, according to unrelated analysis by political scientist Larry Sabato, the party may find it more difficult to keep hold of two seats it won in the November 2024 election as they are shifting toward the Democratic Party.

Newsweek reached out to the Texas Republican Party to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.

Why It Matters

There has been a national redistricting fight in which Republicans and Democrats alike have attempted to draw new state maps to impact the results of future votes.

Redistricting could have a major impact on upcoming elections, including the November 2026 midterms, which will affect the balance of power in Congress and, in turn, Trump's ability to carry out his agenda. Republicans have a narrow majority of 219 to 214 in the House of Representatives, so if they lose a handful of seats it could have a huge impact on the last two years of Trump's term.

On Tuesday, federal judges ruled that Texas cannot use a new Republican-drawn congressional map, ruling that there was "substantial evidence" showing "that Texas racially gerrymandered." The map was expected to deliver five additional seats to the GOP.
>>
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has said he will file an appeal with the Supreme Court and ask for a stay of the order.

Speaking to Newsweek, Mark Shanahan who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K. said while the Texas GOP had hit a roadblock with their redistricting efforts, "there is every chance the Supreme Court with its conservative supermajority will overturn the lower court's decision."

Meanwhile, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a forecaster that tracks elections across the country, shifted two of Texas' congressional races away from Republicans on Wednesday. Those seats are the 15th District held by Republican Monica De La Cruz, which was changed from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, and the 34th District, a seat held by Democrat Vicente Gonzalez, which shifted from Leans Republican to Toss-Up.

However, The Cook Political Report, another forecaster, suggests TX-15 is Likely Republican and TX-34 is Lean Republican.

Shanahan said: "In terms of the South Texas districts now no longer seen as safe Republican holds, these were traditionally Democrat seats, but voted Republican in 2024, largely because Trump picked up a stronger share of the Hispanic vote. At the moment the president is unpopular due to his relative lack of economic success and the taint of Epstein. Meanwhile the clamp down on immigration by his Border Force has unsurprisingly drawn particular ire in the Hispanic community.

If Republican candidates are to hold those seats and suburban Districts around Texas's Democratic city strongholds, they may have to break ranks with the president and his acolyte, Governor Greg Abbott and campaign far more intensely on local issues, especially affordability."
What People Are Saying

Paxton said in a statement about Texas's redistricting: "I will be appealing this decision to the Supreme Court of the United States, and I fully expect the Court to uphold Texas’s sovereign right to engage in partisan redistricting."
>>
>>1459277
Paxton is running for US Senate so he's virtue signalling as hard as he can to the MAGA base, which is still the majority of Texas voters.
>>
>>1459277
Ruling will get overturned on appeal. The dissent is absolutely savage.
>>
>>1459284
The dissent blames George Soros lmao.
>>
>>1459284
>The dissent is absolutely savage
>>1458377
>>1458883
>the midterms
As Reagan said, 'You ain't seen noithing yet'
>>
>>1459284
Yeah this entire situation is nuts.
>https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.txwd.1150387/gov.uscourts.txwd.1150387.1439.0.pdf
>Regardless of one’s political slant, it’s obvious what Texas is trying to do
in 2025. The Republicans’ national margin in the House of Representatives is so slim that squeezing out a majority might even depend, day-to-day, on whether some seats are vacant because of deaths or resignations.
>In 2021, the Texas Legislature, with both houses controlled by Republicans, devised a strategy of creating safe seats for both Republicans and Democrats, but with a decided majority of the state’s delegation still Republican. Whether (as a matter of political clout) that was the wisest strategy is disputed and indeed was fulsomely debated in 2021.
>In mid-2025, the strategy changed: The new plan was to make more seats winnable for Republicans by moving some Democrats incumbents from their districts and rendering other districts unwinnable by Democrats. That sacrificed the wider margins in some of the old districts. The tradeoff is obvious.
>There is some speculation that this new strategy will backfire on Republicans in 2026 because, if they do poorly in the mid-terms, the new Republican seats created in 2025 will be a Pyrrhic victory, because they will lose elections in the closer districts. That is purely a matter of political strategy that federal judges have no business touching.
>The challenge faced by these plaintiffs and Judge Brown is to explain how it could be that the Republicans would sacrifice their stated goal of political gain for racial considerations. It makes no sense to advance the notion that the Republican Legislature would draw districts for the purpose of disadvantaging racial and ethnic minorities if, by doing so, they lessen the number of new Republican seats they might gain.
>>
>>1459294
2/2
>The plaintiffs’ theory is both perverse and bizarre. They actually contend that if the Republicans are sincere about gaining more seats, they could have drawn not five, but six, seven, or eight additional seats and that the reason they did not is that the real reason is racial animus. The absurdity of that notion speaks for itself. Yet it’s all that the plaintiffs and Judge Brown have to offer to defeat the State’s claim that the 2025 lines were drawn for the sake of politics and not race.
>That’s the central dispute in this case. But “[t]he most obvious reason for mid-cycle redistricting, of course, is partisan gain.”
>I dissent.
>>
Last page, all the way at the bottom:
>Darkness descends on the Rule of Law. A bumpy night, indeed
>So SIGNED this 19th day of November 2025
>>
>>1459294
>>1459295
>>1459296
Why is he talking like a fucking DND Dungeon Master?
>>
>midterms
Republicans will end up in a political dungeon
And their masters will be Democrats Neutering a Dictator
>>
>>1459295
>>1459294
So the Republican judge who supports the Republican racial gerrymander to steal the 2026 midterm's entire argument comes down to.
>This racial gerrymandering is okay because Republicans could have been even more blatant with what they're doing.
>>
Y'all realize SCOTUS is gonna kick this shit down for being too close to an election for courts to get involved, right? They've done it before. And they can just draw a new illegal map in 2 years after this one gets them through this election, rinse, repeat.

As it turns out gerrymandering more often was the one weird trick to get around federal laws against racial gerrymandering.
>>
>>1459305
Speak of the Devil, aka the Republican Supreme Court.
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5618319-supreme-court-texas-map-ruling/



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