The question of whether the U.S. economy is heading toward recession is a polarizing one.The labor market has essentially stagnated with very few jobs being added on a monthly basis. Job openings have dropped to the lowest level since the post-pandemic period. Government and consumer debt levels are continuing to climb and affordability has been a hot topic for years.One signal, however, indicates a recession might be closer than we realize.The shape of the Treasury yield curve often provides clues as to which way the economy might be heading. The long end of the curve is more influenced by what's going on in the economy. At a high level, rates tend to rise when the economy is in good shape and fall when conditions look questionable. The short end of the curve is highly influenced by the current Fed Funds rate.History shows that when the difference between the 10-year yield and the 3-month yield turns negative, it triggers a recession watch. In other words, short-term rates are probably set too high for conditions and that could lead to an economic slowdown or even a full-blown recession.When that spread turns positive again, the recession clock starts. At this point, the Fed has probably started lowering rates, but not quickly enough to avoid a downturn.It turns out that the pattern of this Treasury yield turning negative and then positive has been a reliable recession predictor.For the past four recessions, the 10-year/3-month yield spread turned positive just before a recession officially started.That spread just recently flipped from negative to positive again.Does that mean a recession is imminent right now? Not necessarily, but it's not a good sign either. Sometimes, a recession can happen immediately, as it did during the tech bubble. Back in 1991, however, it took more than a year before a recession began.https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/02/14/signal-triggered-before-last-4-recessions-again/
According to the Trump regime, population is decreasing from all these criminals being deported, and white people not reproducing as much, and so 50K New jobs a month is the new 150K new jobs a month. And those 50K jobs are in this new fangled high-tech AI.
No bullshit blog posts allowed on /news/ everyone should report this thread Real media only
>>1489507And they 131,000 they reported in January of 2026 is probably a bullshit inflated number:https://fortune.com/2026/02/12/stocks-wall-street-us-jobs-number-fed-rate-cuts/No one is believing their lies anymore
>>1489533>A couple of analysts are worried that the latest number might be wrongOut of the tens of thousands of analysts why should anyone care about these two?
>>1489534They'll be revised down to 20,000 or so. No one of the ground believes the January numbers
>>1489534>>Out of the tens of thousands of analysts why should anyone care about these two?Out of tens of thousands of election officials, you seem to only pay attention to the two that pretend voter fraud is a thingWhy is it good in that situation but bad in this one?
>>1489550They're saying what everyone else already knows, the economy is in the shitter. Jobs have been flat since April 2025.
>>fool.comNot a news site. This site sells financial advice. Reported
The recession is coming, candy hearts started to print tips for saving money instead of cute lovey sayings
>>1489630Yup that shits grim. Like beyond clown-world grim. They might as well just start making cyanide laced candy and just end the illusion.
>>1489590>Quick bury the lede beneath a bunch of other posts.Boy, this yield curve inversion REALLY frightens you guys. It must be the thing that proves were heading for a recession
>the migger snowflake shill >>1489514 is a SJW for its orange godReality doesn't give a fuck for your feelings, MAGAts.The Trumptard-triggering threads will continue until opinions improve.
>>1489658>>1489665Traitors celebrating America's tribulations We will rebound stronger than ever and trump can't keep us downTraitors get the rope!
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>>1489493Which signal?
