The explanation is simple, said Tamas Varga, analyst at the London-based oil broker PVM. Tankers are under attack in the Persian Gulf, the critical Strait of Hormuz remains basically closed, and Iran’s new supreme leader has vowed to keep the trade chokepoint shut.

“Until transit is reactivated, those kinds of policy announcements are going to have limited impact,” said Tom Liles, senior vice president of upstream research at consulting firm Rystad Energy.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates exported around 14 million barrels per day (bpd) before the war, Liles said. Around 5 million bpd to 6 million bpd can be exported through Saudi and UAE pipelines that terminate at the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman, he said.

This leaves around 9 million bpd, or about 10% of global supply, that can only pass through the Strait and will remain bottlenecked in the region until transit resumes, Liles said. At first glance, the 400 million emergency barrels would cover about 40 days of that lost supply, the analyst said.

But the reality is a lot more complicated, Liles said. “There’s only a limited amount of volume that can be released over a given period. It’s not as if 400 million barrels just appear immediately on the market,” he said.
Stockpiles not enough

The oil supply disrupted by the war is far larger than the stockpiles the IEA can release daily. As a consequence, the action will have limited impact on the trajectory of oil prices, analysts at Bernstein told clients in a Thursday note.

The U.S. will release 172 million barrels over a 120-day period. This implies 1.4 million barrels per day, which is just 15% of the supply lost due to the Hormuz closure. It takes 13 days for the barrels to hit the market from President Donald Trump’s authorization.

The IEA did not detail when the other members would start releasing barrels or in what quantities. It said each of its 32 member countries will decide based on circumstances appropriate to them.

The IEA last released emergency stockpiles in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Its members managed to reach a combined high of 1.3 million bpd in September 2022, according to consulting firm Rapidan Energy. The IEA could perhaps boost the release rate closer to 2 million bpd, according to Rapidan.

“It buys time, but it does not solve the crisis,” the Bernstein analysts said.

It is possible that oil prices could rise to levels that start lowering demand before the stockpile release even fully kicks in, Liles said. Rystad forecasts that a two-month war will push Brent oil prices to $110 per barrel by April. A four-month war could spike Brent to $135 per barrel by June.
Depletion risk

The IEA members also risk depleting their stockpiles. The 400 million barrels slated for release represents 33% of the 1.2 billion barrels in member-state stockpiles. The 172 million barrels the U.S. plans to release represents 41% of the 415 million currently held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday that the White House plans to more than replace the oil that it is releasing with 200 million barrels within the next year at no cost to the taxpayer.

The IEA action also does nothing to address the 20% of liquefied natural gas exports that are unable to reach the global market due to the Strait’s closure. LNG is a form of natural gas that is chilled into a liquid and loaded onto tankers for export. Natural gas is used for electricity production and heating.

The stockpiles will partially alleviate the oil shock from the war, said Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy and politics at Wolfe Research.

“But it does not by any means obviate the need to reopen the Strait, and we don’t think much more help is coming after this,”

>>1497084
And this kids is why we never went to outright war with Iran before, because every other admin knew this shit would happen and everyone would be worse off. Trump probably also had at least a few competent people left who tried to warn him, but he wouldn't fucking listen, so here we are.

>>1497091
>Trump probably also had at least a few competent people left who tried to warn him
Those people were all fired by DOGE. The current Energy Secretary Chris Wright was an oil executive who bought his position by donating $250K to Trump's campaign.

>>1497093
I would think that Little Rubio knew that it was a dumb idea, he either did speak up or wasn't very convincing.

>>1497093
Joe Biden emptied the strategic petroleum reserve so gas prices wouldn't be high during the midterms

>>1497112
>Joe Biden emptied the strategic petroleum reserve so gas prices wouldn't be high during the midterms
So Trump is only folloeing Biden's example here. I thought he was supposed to be way smarter and better than Biden?

>>1497112
Did Biden attack Iran? No? Then shut the fuck up.

>>1497119
Joe Biden is responsible for the Ukraine war
Joe Biden is responsible for the Palestine war.

>>1497120
Weird headcanon but I'll indulge you for a moment. How did he supposedly do that?

>>1497123
Just ask yourself who was president when both those wars started.
If Donald Trump is responsible when Israel goes to war with Iran, Joe Biden is responsible when a second country goes to war with a third country

>>1497129
Ok but you do have to understand the US was literally doing joint operations with Israel to declare war on Iran. They both declared war at the same time.

>>1497147
Russians are giving Iranians targeting data
Americans are giving Ukranians targeting data
I think we call this a "proxy war", one that started on February 24, 2022.

>>1497120
Dems started the Iraq War. Dems started the Afganistan shitshow. It's always dems who start this shit and then a real man republican has to fix it.

>>1497165
>dems tipped over my trash last night

tRumpflation
tRumpcession
tRumppression
It's difficult to bankrupt the richest country in the world, this guy managed to do it along with Republican consent

>>1497120
>>1497165
Sounds about right from the 'Ukraine started the war' crowd.

>>1497168
BIDON'S ECONOMY

>>1497170
It was actually Hunter Biden who caused all of this.

>>1497150
Are you suggesting that Trump went to war against Iran because Russia invaded Ukraine?

>>1497174
No I am suggesting that the United States and Russia are using proxies to kill each other.

>>1497116
>Joe Biden emptied the strategic petroleum reserve so gas prices wouldn't be high during the midterms
Wrong
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/16/biden-oil-reserve-fuels-00121298
>Biden tapped the SPR last year when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent oil prices soaring. Now Republicans blame him for putting the nation’s energy security at risk.
oh the irony

>>1497175
Yeah that’s not news and that’s been going on since Korea

Reminder that the topic of this thread is the release of emergency oil supplies see >>1497084

>>1497084
No shit. People seem to forget just how much oil we use per DAY. We don't even have a week of oil in storage, yet somehow a windmill that produces 8 MW every day the wind blows for 25 years straight is a gamble and a risk?

>>1497179
For example Australia
>Australia currently holds 36 days' worth of petrol supply, 29 days' worth of jet fuel and 32 days' worth of diesel, according to the latest data.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-13/petrol-diesel-released-emergency-stockpile-iran/106450556

>>1497084
>The United States of America has beaten and completely decimated Iran, both Militarily, Economically, and in every other way, but the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait must take care of that passage, and we will help — A LOT! The U.S. will also coordinate with those Countries so that everything goes quickly, smoothly, and well. This should have always been a team effort, and now it will be — It will bring the World together toward Harmony, Security, and Everlasting Peace! President DONALD J. TRUMP

This was all a nothingburger like Covid.

>>1497120
>Joe Biden is responsible for the Palestine war
what kind of retarded subhuman goycattle do you have to be to believe this?

>>1497178
Biden would have released more

Gas is $6 a gallon

>Leftists actually think Biden would do a better job leading a war against Iran
The price of oil under Biden would be up to $500. Trump has been doing a great job keeping it to $100 given the situation.

>>1497248
We wouldn't be in a war with Iran if Biden was president.

>>1497248
i hope all shills get what they deserve some day

>>1497249
True considering that Iran is a Russian ally and Biden asked Putin to attack Ukraine to destroy evidence of his corruption.
>>1497253
You know, he's probably right. Fact is there's a very clear reason for the price increase. Whereas when oil hit $120 a barrel, nothing was even going on, everyone was just imagining econmic distress.
So, yeah, fuck you.

>>1497257
Where do you people get this shit from?
(as if it isn't RT and Tass)

>>1497259
RT, the Russian news outlet would report on their buddy, Biden, giving the go ahead to attack Ukraine?
Porbably not.

>>1497257
"he" is you, and you are really bad at being a shill. comically so

>>1497084
So trump is going to use up all of America's weapons, empty all the reserves.
While still wrecking the economy with his trickle down economics.

>>1497272
you're projecting, esl shill

>>1497313
you left out destroying international goodwill and trade relationships

>cuts back drastically on non-oil based energy sources
>doesn't build fill back up oil reserves
>starts war with Iran without military ramp up
>first target of war is an elementary school

Such great planning. And on the last point, I know a lot of people love the idea of children getting gunned down or blown up (probably normalized by this point with all the school shootings) because being the edgy badguy makes them feel based and powerful, but it's terrible optics that doesn't really achieve all that much. It emboldens the enemy and makes allies less willing to support you. While the US probably doesn't need allies, it certainly makes logistics a lot easier and saves American lives if you have others greasing the wheels. If you really want to high score the civilian death game, you try to do it as collateral, or after you occupy the country, and you don't brag about it just to retract those statements later on.

>inb4 just use nukes lol
Yeah, normalizing nukes would be such a great move for global stability and the safety of America.

>>1497344
Im happy to nuke Iran and let Russia nuke Ukraine and China nuke Taiwan. Let's solve all the problems at once. Let's teach anyone who wants to fuck with the global order that they will face hellfire

>>1497348
>Let's teach anyone who wants to fuck with the global order that they will face hellfire
Your the ones fucking with the global order, so sure, let’s do that.

>>1497348
People call me a psycopath and say I just want mass death, and I to them yes. They are responsible for this. They made me this way. The age of leftism is over. Love and empathy are just fake words used by leftist to march us to our deaths. We are the true face of humanity that the weak reject. We have nukes, we should use them. Let our enemies quake in terror and scream in anguish as mushroom clouds sprout across their major population centers.

>>1497355
Alright go to bed you have to wake up for sunday service tomorrow.

>>1497359
esl shill is projecting again

>>1497355
Ow, the edge.

>>1497355
I really do love Jokerpilled /pol/ monologues.

>>1497084
>Climate Crisis hero raises gas praises to discourage car owners world wide to drive
thank you Donald

>>1497444
duck? which donald are you talking about shill

>>1497091
>>1497093
I haven't read it from a reliable source yet, so it's just rumors and hearsay, but allegedly they thought Iran wouldn't close the strait, because it would hurt them more than the rest of the world.

>>1497476
>I havent read
i believe you, esl shill. you failing to read changes nothing about reality

>>1497478
are you underage or something.
Also that's ETL to you, smartass

>>1497476
>but allegedly they thought Iran wouldn't close the strait, because it would hurt them more than the rest of the world.
Which is retarded because both the US and Israel is pretty openly showing they want to annihilate the whole regime, if not the region as a whole. This shit is part of why No Quarter is both a war crime and not a good strategy; if you give someone nothing to lose they burn everything you wanted to take from them just to catch you in the flames.

>>1497502
>both the US and Israel
You know, for Israel I can at least sea what their goals are: make sure Iran can't be a threat to them anytime soon and I don't think it matters to them if this happens through a friendly regime, the collapse of the state or a Syria style forever civil war for the next decade.
However for the US I don't even know what the plan is. There's a whole lot of confused messaging at the cynic in me wants to say that Donny just wants to play some more war, because he enjoys the theatrics of it and now he's bitten off a bit more than he can chew. China must be so delighted right now.

>>1497533
NTA but are you a zoomer? Honest question.
America has been actively destroying/toppling regimes in the middle east at the advice of Bibi for the last 25 years (not exaggerating). The meme that Iraq, Afghanistan etc has nuclear weapons has been used for that same time period to justify bombing the shit out of each country.
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aqcsMQdbdk
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gH1V25Aaw98
It's literal paranoid psycho "we need to kill them first before they kill us!" logic, but instead of Israel doing it, they're leveraging the US to do it on their behalf.
None of this this benefits the US. I grew up through the Afghanistan and Iraq wars. It blew out the national debt by seven trillion dollars and made it impossible for the average American to own a home via inflation.
Israel's goal, ultimately, is to conquer the region and become a superpower. They have infiltrated our government, blackmailed people (Epstein) and killed US citizens to make sure that happens. They don't give a fuck if the US burns to the ground because their support for the US is contingent on how much the US can help Israel.

>>1497533
>There's a whole lot of confused messaging at the cynic in me wants to say that Donny just wants to play some more war, because he enjoys the theatrics of it and now he's bitten off a bit more than he can chew.
Bibi gave him a golden pager. That's like being a slave and your master gives you a diamond-encrusted collar.

>>1497533
>Sea
esl shill opinion discarded

>>1497534
Nah, I'm fully aware. But with wars like Iraq or Afghanistan it felt like they at least had a plan. Even if it was misguided or built on false assumption.
This just looks like a bunch of ad-libed bullshit. As if they decided to just bomb the country, see what happens next and take it from there
>>1497536
That's still ETL to you, buddy. Sorry if absent minded misspelling of homophones hits a nerve.

>>1497559
Israel's goal is to destabilize these regimes so that they are easier to conquer later. Killing someone like the Ayatollah creates a power vacuum and factionalization within Iran.
American zionists go along with this shit because they think Israel is going to be bombed, destroying the Al-Aqsa Mosqueon the Temple Mount. Once that happens they will rebuild the Temple for a third time and supposedly bring about the endtimes. It literally says in the bible that these people are the synagogue of satan, but zionists don't actually read the bible.

>>1497533
>China must be so delighted right now.
If they wanted to kill all Taiwanese as revenge for the Kuomintang Civil War, now would be the time. We've moved assets out of the Pacific to shore up the Mideast. Extra benefit is that it would cause a massive global depression.

>>1497582
I was thinking the same thing, but I think they might not yet been ready. I've heard analysts floating the year 2027 as a suggestion for when they might be.
But either way, every US munition wasted on this war is one less that will be able to be used against China

>>1497600
Munitions were more a deterrent. If Trump fucks up the Iran War and shows the US military as being an inept paper tiger, China might go for the genocide and resettle Taiwan plan. Still, I think a new paradigm is developing in war, where thanks to cheap drones, warfare favors the defenders even more heavily and WWI style grinding, brutal, attrition based battles are back in vogue. So China would not have an easy time of it and fuck themselves hard like Russia in Ukraine, especially with how much it would piss off every other developed country on Earth.

>>1497612
china will never hurt taiwan they are brothers. taiwain is just the confederacy fled to cuba. it will come back to the fold soon and no one can stop this

>>1497612
I'd be cautious to over-learn the lessons from Ukraine. I've heard some Ukraine veterans who went to Taiwan to train some of their guys talk about how the conditions there are totally different. For instance it's a mountainous jungle not bare, flat fields as far as the eye can see.
I agree that warfare has changed forever with the advent of drones, but I'd be cautious to assume that the dominant role drones have at the moment will persist. Sword vs shield and all that.
But same deal as with Russia starting any more shit in Europe: To me it's secondary if they would be able to pull it off or not, I'd prefer if they don't try in the first place.

>>1497645
Mountainous terrain would favor the defenders even more heavily. It's why prior admins hadn't dealt with Iran before. The terrain would make any war in Iran an absolute slog, even with all the US's high-tech gadgetry, not to mention how they held the Strait of Hormuz hostage.

>>1497653
GO IRAN.
GO RUSSIA!!!
DEATH TO AMERICA!!!

The Iranians are already allowing ships to cross the strait so long as they have asked permission and aren’t assisting the US with any military operations. Indian ships with gas have passed, Turkey have ships ready to go across (12 or 14), Chinese oil tankers have crossed, and just today the Italians pulled their military from a base in Iraq and are negotiating with the Iranians.
This release of stockpiled oil will only be relevant to the US and Israel and whoever else is stupid enough to join the war effort, everyone else will be perfectly fine getting ships through without any Iranian interference therefore they will not have to worry about releasing emergency supplies

>>1497091
>and everyone would be worse off.
But G*d's chosen people, ordained by Yahweh himself, are doing better than they ever have. Isn't that why we are on this planet? Compared to that, what else matters?

>>1497112
>MUH BIDEN
Now Trump isnt' going to have jack shit and will make Biden's $4/gallon look like child's play by November.

I'm going to start selling "I DID THAT" with Trump pointing stickers on etsy.

>>1497216
Biden wouldn't let Israel carpet bomb schools and hospitals like Trump does so he's the bad guy.

>>1497687
>This release of stockpiled oil will only be relevant to the US and Israel and whoever else is stupid enough to join the war effort, everyone else will be perfectly fine getting ships through without any Iranian interference therefore they will not have to worry about releasing emergency supplies
It's genius on their part, they're clearly working with the Chinese to use EW to jam transponder codes and mask the true number of vessels going through the strait. So that way China and Russia can sit back and relax while America and Israel sweat like pigs. Fearing mines that may not even exist and having to listen to Trump demand that they brave the strait while he's busy trying to flatten every school in the region.

>>1497694
It also lets the Chinese fix oil prices. How much is oil worth today? However much China got in behind-the-scenes tankers.

>>1497695
Interesting that the Saudis are selling to China in yuan now

>>1497084
And the prices will continue to skyrocket. The US and allied states are gambling that they can finish this war before reserves start running out, because if they don't then the follow-on effects of high oil prices will make everything expensive. The worse the price situation gets, the more domestic pressure the US will face from its people and corporations, forcing a retreat for political reasons.
Unfortunately though, the political situation has also changed in the middle east. Previously the deal was that the middle east nations could invest in the US in return for military protection. The Iran conflict has exposed this promise to be a lie. If the US is forced to pull out for political reasons, then its foothold in the region will be set back decades, if not permanently.
This is the calculus of this war. If the US can achieve Iranian regime change or state collapse before a political retreat is necessary, then they win in a way that might maintain their previous positioning in the region. If not, it is a loss that will leave the US in a worse position than it was in previously.
And the whole regime change thing isn't looking too hot right now.

>>1497696
source?

>news keeps hyping up affordability
>now nothing on affordability
It's so clear. Trump was right that affordability was always a democrat hoaxe.

>>1497093
lol at thinking doge wasn’t just getting rid of DEI shit

>>1497740
Lol at not knowing doge fired tons of essential personal that had to be rapidly hired back.

Double lol that someone as retarded as you is probably a DEI hire.

>>1497738
what the fuck are you talking about? Every fucking major news site literally has an oil price tracker right now. It was the one thing Trump did right and of course he fucked it up beyond belief.

>>1497743
tbh I voted for ice raids, camps, and "mass deportation," and to go after the DEI and kill the fed bereaucracy. Trump can do anything and he would be alright because he has been delivering there. Sure...we also got the Canada and Greenland bullshit, and now Iran and the oil shortage and prices going up amongst other egotistical bullshit, but it was worth it for me and most other who vote for him.

>>1497746
>Guys every aspect of my actual life and finances got fucked but hey he hurt the people I don't like so it's basically worth it
Absolutely pathetic.

>>1497804
>Don't like Democrats
Too bad bitch trump killed the Republicans chances get ready we are going to impeach trump and release all the Epstein files and gerrymander everything so much that you'll never win again

Wait did Biden get re-elected? You do realize that Democrat were MASSIVELY rejected in 2024, right?
You do realize it was even worse then, don't you? If not, then fuck you.
I don't care about your dead gay foot soldiers fighting to keep illegals for congressional seats.
I don't care about the war driving up prices of gas because there's a reason for the pice increase. Unlike when it happened under Biden.
NO ONE wants Democrats in power again.
Because at the end of the day if Trump is terrible. If Trump is destroying everyhting. If Trump is an idiot and he's better than you what does that say to you?

Now, get a fucking platform and run, but I will never vote Democrat again ever.

>>1497806
you're going to be so mad in november I love that for you

>>1497808
I'm still mad from 2022, asshole.

>>1497806
>You do realize that Democrat were MASSIVELY rejected in 2024,
>48% vs 49%
If the 2024 election was held today Trump and Repubs would lose by a landslide.

>>1497809
hahah i love that even more stay mad it will kill you younger. you probably didn't invest in oil before this obvious war either did you. its free money

>>1497813
No but I shorted my Twitter stock.
Anyaway, owning all Americans isn't good policy.
You should rethink whatever your platform is.
And we'll find out in the midterms if we're fucked over by Democrats again.

>>1497812
Nah we won't accept a female leader

>>1497816
True. Imagine electing Hillary and Bill's been gaping her ass (obvious due to several incontience issues) and she's screaming, "Choke me harder!" and that's our president.
It's not going to happen. That's also why Pete Bootyjug has no chance.

>>1497817
republicans sure are weird look at this guy imagining old woman and gays getting gaped this isnt a political party it's 3 bigots in a trenchcoat

>>1497820
dis nigga be votin for DAP'd0crats

>>1497820
I litteraly blew severaly loads to 90s Hilldawg.
Still never gonna vote Bitch or Brat.

>>1497740
It was also getting rid of non cult members

>>1497830
you are so esl it hurts