https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge0grppe3poThroughout US President Donald Trump's second term in office, traders have been betting millions of dollars just before he makes major announcements.The BBC has examined trade volume data on several financial markets and matched them to some of the president's most significant market-moving statements.It found a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public.Some analysts say it bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, whereby bets are made by people based on information that is not available to the general public.Others say the picture is more complicated and that some traders have become more adept at anticipating the president's interventions.
9 March 2026: 'The war is very complete, pretty much'Some of the biggest movements have been in oil trades on the futures market.Nine days into the US-Israel war with Iran, Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the conflict was "very complete, pretty much".A bar chart and a line chart titled "Oil trading volumes spike shortly before CBS interview sends price tumbling”, showing trading volumes, and the price per barrel, for Brent crude oil futures on the evening of Monday 9 March 2026. The bar chart of trading volumes shows Brent futures contracts were trading at a volume of 884, at 18:00 GMT (each contract represents 1,000 barrels of oil). That spiked to 4,141 at 18:28, fell again, and then rose sharply again shortly after 19:16, when an interview on CBS was made public, in which Trump indicated the Iran war could be near an end. The line chart of prices shows Brent futures were trading at a little under $100 a barrel at 18:00, but then dropped sharply after Trump’s interview was made public, hitting $85 by 19:39, before recovering slightly to $90 by 20:00.The first time the public would have known about the interview was at 15:16 Eastern Time (19:16 GMT) when the reporter posted about it on X.Oil traders reacted to this news that the conflict could end much sooner than expected by selling oil, with the price plunging by around 25%.However, market data shows a huge surge of bets were placed on the price of oil falling at 18:29 GMT - a full 47 minutes before the reporter's post.The traders who placed those bets will have made millions of dollars from the movement in oil prices.
23 March 2026: 'Complete and total resolution to hostilities'On 23 March, just two days after threatening to "obliterate" Iran's power plants, Trump posted on Truth Social that Washington had held "VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS" with Tehran over a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities.It was a major surprise to diplomatic observers and to traders.Immediately, stocks rose and the US benchmark price of oil - which had been climbing - fell sharply.As the BBC reported at the time, 14 minutes before the president's post there were an unusually high number of bets on the US oil price.The same pattern was seen in traders buying contracts for Brent crude, the other major oil benchmark.The trades appeared "abnormal, for sure," one oil analyst told the BBC at the time.
9 April 2025: 'Liberation Day' pauseAway from the war in the Middle East, there are other examples of trading activity that have raised eyebrows.On 2 April last year, Trump announced what he called Liberation Day - a sweeping set of tariffs on goods from practically every country in the world.Stock markets around the globe plunged.But a week later when Trump announced a 90-day "pause" on the levies for all countries, except China, stock markets soared.The benchmark S&P 500 index jumped by 9.5% - one of its largest single-day gains since the Second World War.Again, a pattern of unusual trading preceded these events with an unusually high number of bets ahead of the announcement on one fund that tracks the S&P 500.The number of contracts traded jumped to over 10,000 per minute just after 18:00 BST. Earlier in the day the number had been in the hundreds.Some traders bet over $2m on the stock market increasing that day, even though it had gone through seven days in a row of losses. The huge surge could have generated them a profit of almost $20m.Later that week, several senior Democrats in the US Senate wrote to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) urging the financial regulator to investigate whether the president's announcements "enriched administration insiders and friends at the expense of the American public".When asked by the BBC whether it had looked into these allegations, a spokesman for the SEC declined to comment.The White House, meanwhile, did not respond to a BBC request for comment on any of the unusual trading activities analysed in this report.
3 Jan 2026: Maduro seized· Dec 2025: Burdensome-Mix account created· 2 Jan 2026: Account puts $32,000 on Maduro being ousted· 3 Jan 2026: Maduro is seized and Burdensome-Mix wins $436,000The recent growth of online predictions markets has also drawn scrutiny from observers.Blockchain-powered platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi offer users the chance to speculate on anything from the weather to baseball to US foreign policy.President Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr, is an investor in Polymarket and sits on its advisory board. He also acts as a strategic advisor to Kalshi and has been contacted by the BBC for comment.In December 2025, one user created an account on Polymarket called Burdensome-Mix. On 30 December, it placed its first bet on Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro being out of office by the end of January 2026.Between 30 December and 2 January Burdensome-Mix placed a total of $32,500 on the position.When Maduro was seized by US special forces and ousted the following day, Burdensome-Mix won $436,000.Shortly afterwards, the account changed its username and has not placed any bets since.
28 Feb 2026: Strikes on Iran· Feb 2026: Six accounts created on Polymarket· 28 Feb: Accounts win $1.2m between themAccording to the blockchain analysis website Bubblemaps, six accounts were created on Polymarket in February.All placed wagers on a US strike on Iran happening by 28 February. When the attacks were confirmed by President Trump in the early hours of that day, the accounts earned $1.2m between them.Five of those six users have placed no more bets since, but one of the account's recent activity shows it has subsequently made $163,000 by correctly betting on a US-Iran ceasefire by 7 April, which was announced by Washington and Tehran on that day.Polymarket told the BBC it "sets, maintains, and enforces the highest standards of market integrity", adding that it "proactively" works with regulators and law enforcement to do so.In March this year, both Polymarket and Kalshi outlined new rules to crack down on insider trading.Predictions markets come under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).The CFTC did not respond to a BBC request for comment, but its chair recently told a Congressional committee that his organisation had "zero tolerance" for fraud and insider trading.It has also surfaced that the White House sent an internal email to staff last month, warning them not to use insider information to place bets on predictions markets.Spokesman Davis Ingle told the BBC at the time that "any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting".
Insider trading has been illegal for most Americans since the Securities Act was passed in 1933.It was extended to cover US government officials in 2012, although to date no-one has been prosecuted under the law.Paul Oudin, a professor who specialises in financial regulation law at the ESSEC Business School, says the rules are difficult to enforce."The financial authorities will not carry out a prosecution if they can't figure out who the source of information is," says Oudin.None of the US financial authorities contacted by the BBC acknowledged any of the allegations of insider trading."You can have massive trades on a financial instrument that clearly show that someone was privy to what Donald Trump was about to declare," says Oudin."Yet there is a strong chance that no-one will be prosecuted," he adds.
Interesting how none of you cared about Hunter and Bribens blatant corruption and stealing of money in Ukraine hmmmm burisma holdings anyone?
>>1507503How are you still trying to peddle that conspiracy theory years after it was discredited?
yeah, they'll be testifying in front of Congress about this. Two more weeks.
>>1507503I did but now I don’t. thank your fat pedogolem president.
>>1507511>DiscreditedFake news. Go ahead. Let's see your evidence, I'll wait.
>>1507476Everyone does it, that's the best/worst part. Trump is using the fact that a few Democrats (Who were indicted for it btw) did it in like 2015-2018 to basically forge the largest most obvious insider trading scheme imaginable.It would cost NOTHING to just space these trades over the length of several days before the interview. Just buy 100 shares every hour of every day, nobody would notice. Instead, Trump is aware nobody is going to press him on it ever, so he buys it all at once. Worse: Miggers will STILL tell us that it's his right to insider trade because idk someone traded 10% of this singular trade over 10 years ago.>>1507503WHOOP DERE IT ISWHOOP DERE IT ISWHOOP DERE IT IShttps://www.rawstory.com/raw-investigates/congress-stock-trading-ban/>This is Manning’s second known STOCK Act violation. Sludge reported in February 2022 that Manning and her husband failed to properly report 51 trades totaling between $275,000 and $1.25 million.https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacheverson/2025/12/24/congress-million-dollar-stock-trades-2025/>Members of Congress, their spouses and dependents executed 13,300 trades totaling $635.6 million this year according to a report by the watchdog Common Cause, published in December.>Miggershitters will now shit up the thread with their niggardly belief that $1 million (indicted) insider trade is worth the $635 million done last year alone that has had zero investigations done with mostly republican congressmen.WHOOP DERE IT IS >>1507536WHOOP DERE IT IS WHO LET THE MIGGERS OUTIS- IS- ISRA-EL
>>1507536>>1507503glug glug but her emails sorry but his laptop Hey btw what about those Epstein Files? Why are most of them still not released from the period of 1998-2001?
>>1507503>B-b-but but butWhy are miggers always so pathetic
>>1507503Hell, they don't even care about Omar's blatant tax evasion. They only care when it's a Republican.
>>1507549stop talking to yourself esl shill
>>1507549It's your job to pretend to care about Democrat crimes, not ours.
>suspicionsThey do it out in the open. There is no question about it.
>>1507551>I don't care when a democrat does itYeah, I know.
>>1507554>I only pretend to clutch my pearls when a Democrat does itMy point exactly
>>1507476"Suspicion?" It's right fucking there in the open.
>>1507557>Hmmmm, well someone literally traded 50 million dollars in stocks mere minutes before Trump's announcement, a move that would be suicidally risky in any other circumstance and made maximum possible profit by doing so at that exact time>But I don't KNOW...
>>1507503Exactly because Hunter Biden something something Ukraine something something Trump should get a free pass to openly manipulate markets for the benefits of his friends and family. Democraps think they’re better than us so they aren’t allowed to do this. Actually it’s a good thing if Trump is corrupt
>>1507476Wow is anyone surprised after seeing his posts on truth social?
>>1507503>WhataboutInstantly response to a clear case of trump corruption with a false 'both sides' attempt. Reminder this is and still remains russia/republicans most used tactic for years to distract you from their criminal behavior.https://files.catbox.moe/1nmmn6.jpgIt's clear we need to find out how much trump and his regime made from insider trading and just seize the money to help fund programs trump gutted.
LMAO it's an open secret in every presidency. Nancy Pelosi is considered a god on wall street but she's just been insider trading during every democrat regime.
And I must add. Trump is probably the worst of all the presidents to insider trade because he is so unpredictable. All the other presidents had pretty rigid views and you knew they were going to start a long war and do some leftists shit. Trumps president is like watching WWE. Probably the riskiest president of all when trading the news. Some guy once said he based his campaign on Jessie Venturas mayoral campaign and all these years later, I think he may have been right lmao.
>>1507503Hunter Biden promising businessmen access to his dad for a massive payout and then failing to deliver is both objectively hilarious and legal.Rich assholes getting taken for a ride because they tried to make the world a shittier place is awesome. We need more of that and less ripping off children's cancer research charities.
>>1507589Ironically it makes his insider trades so fucking obvious you can't make any argument against them being insider trades. He has no schedule or tact; the only way someone makes massive trades right before he tweets is if they know what he's going to say.
>>1507607Lay off the smirnov, comrade, that talking point has been debunked for years
oh wow look at this >>1507537>>1507588>MUH PELOSIWHOOP DERE IT IS>>1507549>MUH OMARWHOOP DERE IT IS>>1507554>MUH DEMOCRATS (1% of total insider trading, indicted)WHOOP DERE IT IS>>1507607>MUH BIDENWHOOP DERE IT IS>anon I saw you pick up a quarter in public, that means I can come rob your house, right? i mean it's basically the same thing, you steal, i steal, sure i steal 500 times more but who cares haha you got a quarter!!!
>>1507633See>>1507586Anything to distract from trump's corruption.
>>1507635If you don't give a fuck about dems then why should I give a fuck about Trump?>b-but dems don't do it as much!!!How the fuck do you know? You never investigate them.
>>1507637If Republicans were serious they could've pressed charges. They don't, because they're full of shit. And you're literally not american
>>1507476>CBS drops a story >People start trading like crazy Yes, and?
>>1507637Why are you so desperate to distract from fact that this is extremely obvious corruption on the part of the trump regime? You should be demanding regulation be passed.
>>1507638>If Republicans were serious they could've pressed charges.But the whole point of the GOP victim cycle is that there's never any charges to press1. Feign outrage over a made up scandal2. Loudly screech that Democrats are monsters because they love scandal3. Loudly talk about investigating scandal4. Investigate scandal behind closed doors to make it look important5. Find nothing6. Memoryhole the investigation7. Start squawking about the same scandal a few months later because MAGA are low IQ moronsVoter Fraud, Hunter Biden, anything with Hillary, they've never found anything after multiple investigations
