5° AT Trip, Am I Cooked?I'm gonna be going on a 2 night, 20-mile trip on the AT this coming Friday. It looks like it'll be a lot colder than I was anticipating. Could you give me your opinion on whether or not my gear will keep me warm enough? Am I cooked?WEATHER: Friday - 22° Hi, 8°Lo, Clear, 16mph windSaturday - 14°Hi, 5°Lo, Clear, 8mph windSunday - 14° Hi, 9° Lo, Clear, 3mph windSLEEP/CLOTHING:\-Trilaminate military-style bivy sack\-10° (extreme limit) down sleeping bag\-Sleeping bag liner (maybe extra 5-10°)\-Z-Lite Sol sleeping pad, \~2.2 R-value & Therm-a-rest Trail Scout, \~3.1 R-value\-Merino wool base layer, 200g/M2\-Knitted Merino wool sweater\-DuraCanvas Outback Pants\-Sweatpants\-3 pairs of wool socks (hiking), 1 pair, oversized wool sleep socks\-Down vest\-Bates Intermediate Cold Weather Boots\-Rain Jacket\-Wool mitten liners & Bundeswehr Extreme Cold Weather Mittens\-Wool cap & balaclava\-Sunglasses (maybe)\-Crampons (likely gonna be icy from previous snowstorms)FOOD/WATER:\-5L Dry bag\-Knorr Pasta/Rice sides\-Hot choccy\-Oatmeal\-8oz block of cheese\-M&M/Nut trail mix\-Chicken pouches\-2 protein shakes\-2 Uncrustables\-Peanut Butter pouches \-Granola Bars\-Sawyer Squeeze (close to body to prevent frost damage)\-32oz Nalgene bottle (2)\-MSR pocketrocket, 8oz fuel can, windscreen\-Kidney-shaped mess kit, titanium spork, titanium cup\-8oz flask full of Southern Comfort 100 proofMISC:\-60L REI pack\-Suunto compass\-NatGeo trail map\-Power bank\-Sit pad\-Headlamp\-Leki Trekking Poles\-OnX Backcountry with an offline map\- Rain Fly, 9' x 11', diamond-shaped
>>2858092If you aren't confident in your gear or your survival skills then you cancel the trip.You aren't bringing shelter and you aren't bringing enough food to keep yourself active, and sleeping bag companies always overestimate their capabilities by 10-20 degrees f.If you improvise a shelter every night, have a steady fire, and hunt or increase supply stock to offset all the extra activity and cold calorie loss, you probably won't make your destination on time due to needing to stop early to scavenge for shelter and fuel.
You need a good tent to protect yourself from the cold and wind. You can sleep in a bivy but you do not have room to eat, change clothes, sort gear in a bivy.
OP gonna die.
That's hot tent territory. I think you should change your plans.
>>2858092-15c is cold enough that equipment failure or simple errors can kill you. If you had cold camp experience, it would still be something to be cautious about. The AT is not a good place to find out that you were not actually prepared for cold camping, because evacuating yourself will be a chore, one you may physically be unable to do without risk of death or severe thermal injury, if you soak a boot, for instance.I would advise bailing.
