1/3

>>515242565
I hate this one because I know the answer but it always FEELS wrong.

Yes
2/3rds btw didn’t read the problem and I also don’t vote cause I’m not a goyim

>>515242565
50%. It's either silver or it's gold.

>>515242565
It depends matter what the prerequisites for voting would or could be because like everything else in this world jews will just manipulate it to benefit themselves.

>>515243341
Oh forgot to mention it would only be better if it also filtered midwits. Midwits are actually worse than retarded people cause they don’t know better they don’t even think so you can’t blame them for being duped like cattle.
But the world would be 100x worse if midwit opinions mattered. Only high wit opinions matter. Midwits are barely human.

>>515243499
doesn't*

>>515242565
1PBTID SLIDE THREAD DO NOT REPLY

>>515243445
...
If you took out a gold ball, you know that the box full of silver is not an option. So that leaves only 2 boxes; there are 2 gold balls left and 1 silver ball. That's a 1 out of 3 chance.

I refuse to believe anyone can get this wrong.

>>515243710
the image EXPLICITLY says
>What is the probability that the next ball you take FROM THE SAME BOX
you stupid fucking illiterate monkey

>>515243017
Yeah, it feels strange until one considers that the moment you have the first gold ball you just still have the possibility of having both the box with a silver ball before youand the probability rises due to having eliminated the prior possibility of having ever had the box with two silver
that's why it has to ve viewed like it is as 2/3
we simply eliminated a scenario the moment we saw the first gold
that's how i cope it to myself

>>515243710
It's a faggy problem that hinges on linguistic ambiguity.

Its also a midwit trap for people just smart enough to do conditional probability but just stupid enough to not read carefully.

>>515243940
Its not asking waht the probability of drawing gold twice in a row is.

Its asking the probability of drawing gold AGAIN after drawing it once. The 2S box doesnt exist in this phrasing.

>>515242565
50%
You already picked one gold.
Either it's box 1 or box two.
Now you have two boxes. Remember you already took out a gold ball.
So Box 1 has 1 gold ball left inside.
Box dos has 1 silver ball inside.
That's one half chance.

50%

Anyone who didn't arrive to the answer of 50% within 10 seconds needs to leave this board NOW.

>>515244853
nah. If you're holding a gold ball, you're twice as likely to have picked from the box with 2 gold balls.

Another way to visualize it is to strip away the boxes, and just have a selection of 6 balls.
1 of the golds is paired with a silver. 2 of the golds are paired with another gold. Therefore if you pick at random there is a 2/3 chance you will pick a gold paired with another gold.

Another way to think about it.
One box has 1000 gold balls. The box next to it has 1 gold ball and 999 silver balls.
You just picked a gold ball. Chances are your hand is in the first box, right?

>>515244853
>>515244936
You drew a gold.
For the sake of explanation, let's say there's GG box and GS box. GG box contains Gold 1 (G1) and Gold 2 (G2). GS contains G3 and S1.
There are three scenarios which could have occurred - you could have pulled G1, you could have pulled G2, or you could have pulled G3.
If you pulled G1, the second pull would be G2.
If you pulled G2, the second pull would be G1.
If you pulled G3, the second pull would be S1.
That's two scenarios where you could have pulled gold on your second pull, one where you could pull silver.
The answer is 1/3rd.

>>515243017
It's a wording issue that psychologically "tricks you" (even though the wording IS correct). Try mentally inserting "given that" where appropriate

>>515245361
The question sounds like it's asking AFTER you already picked a golden. Meaning AFTER you eliminated the third box.
So your new scenario is you have two probable boxes, not three.

>>515243940
You don't "know" which box you took it from and for the purposes of the question the "sample space" can be considered as the two "allowed" boxes "together"

>>515242565
>I put my hand into the third box containing 2 silver balls...
>and pull out a gold ball
What are the odds the next ball is also gold?
100%
Because to perform this feat I must be King Midas.

>>515246090
Right, but your initial pick could have been *either* gold ball from the box with two.
The explanation I gave ignores the existence of the SS box entirely.
You could have picked G1, leaving G2. (GG Box)
You could have picked G2, leaving G1. (GG Box)
Or you could have picked G3, leaving S1. (GS Box)
It's called Bertrand's Box Paradox.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

>>515243710
>there are 2 gold balls left and 1 silver ball. That's a 1 out of 3 chance.
No, you fucking retard. It matters how many boxes there are, not how many balls. You know you didn't take it from the box with two silver balls, which means you either had the box with two gold balls or the one with each. It's literally 50/50.

>>515246090
Yes you have the two boxes (because you "must" pick one GOLD, the SS box is eliminated from consideration)
Leaving you with the sample space of GGGS
Remove 1 gold (presumably without replacement) (this is a given)
Sample space is GGS
1 out of the 3 balls you can pick is SILVER

Go and actually try the "experiment" 10 times if you're confused. The wording IS correct but does psychologically lead you to perhaps read a completely different scenario.

>>515246464
GIVEN that you've pulled a gold ball, the SS box is basically "discarded"

>>515246899
GGGS
Remove 1 gold you're left with GS.
That's my confusion. why is it GGS?

>>515242565
>pull gold ball first draw
>that means there are 3 possible balls left (1 silver, 2 gold)
>1/3 chance next is silver due to 3 balls being available

>>515246692
The question isn't asking what the probability is at the beginning of the experiment, it's asking you what it is AFTER you already picked out a ball. It's either box 1 or box 2, making the odds 50/50 at THAT POINT IN THE EXPERIMENT

>>515246899
>Sample space is GGS
>1 out of the 3 balls you can pick is SILVER
This is true, but half the remaining boxes contain a silver ball. Given that I've picked a box at random, not a collection of balls, it is 50/50.

>>515246899
No, you're picking from the SAME BOX that you pulled the gold ball from.

>>515247151
I know exactly what the question is.
I am literally talking about after the gold ball is picked.
The odds of picking a silver ball after picking a gold ball is 1/3.
Read what I wrote carefully, or, better yet, read the wiki that explains it if you think I'm just some random idiot:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

File: 1757176757987768.png (239 KB, 613x670)

239 KB PNG

>>515245187
You missed the trick part of the question. The box you chose is already decided. If you grab a ball from the box and its gold, there's a 2/3rds chance you grabbed the box with 2 golds. However this isn't the question. The question is you already have a box, by the condition of grabbing the gold ball, it must either be the 2 gold or the 1 gold 1 silver box. The 2/3rds probability means nothing at this point. All that matters now is it's one box or the other. Therefore it's 50%

This question is just the same bullshit as the monty hall problem
You have a 50-50 chance of having either the 2gold or 1each box.
You have a total item probability of 1/3
You have a perceptual probability of 2/3
It's a bullshit question with multiple correct answers depending on how the asker thinks about it
Stop trying to be right, you're all being played

>>515247343
It's not a trick question.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox

>>515247244
But you effectively aren't picking the ball, you're picking a box. At this point you know you have taken a gold ball so it isn't the SS box. It is either the GS or the GG box. That's all you can actually infer.

>>515242565
I choose to switch boxes because staying with the box I picked means I'm more likely to pull out a goat. You won't trick me this time jew.

>>515243710
you are picking the 2nd ball out of the same box as per the question.

1/2 is the only correct answer because drawing the first gold ball eliminates the 2x silver from the equation.

you have a 50% chance of having chosen the 2x gold vs the 1g 1s box, and the question is asking you the probability for the 2nd ball from the same box you have already chosen the gold ball from, not to pick a 2nd ball from either box.

>>515247454
No, you're effectively picking a ball.
If you got the box with the two gold balls, you could have picked gold ball 1 or gold ball 2. That's two possibilities of what you've done.
It's counterintuitive. That's why it's called a veridical paradox.

>>515247388
>It's not a trick question!
>I just want you to evaluate the system odds when I asked after a singular condition!
Equivalent:
>How many gold balls are there?
>Wrong. There are 6 balls.

>>515242565
Only people that work should be allowed to vote. It would be simple and easy to require a W-2 or 1099-NEC when showing up to the polling location.

>>515247669
I mean, you can play all sorts of rhetorical games but the mathematical explanation is right there at the link.

>>515245361
its vert telling.. this question is basically a turing test for midwits that think they are smarter then they are and wont listen when corrected.

The completely miss that one box has been eliminated because they cannot process logic properly

>>515247796
>rhetorical
If you don't want to understand why clarity is fundamental in mathematics, let alone statistical analysis, then please fuck off. The internet does not deserve your wisdom.

>>515247879
>one box has been eliminated
Two boxes have been eliminated. You are not being presented with a choice.

This is a clever way bait for the confidently incorrect. All but the retarded cpuld solve it if their ego didn't depend on being right within the first five seconds of using half their brain.

But alas, monkey brain is too strong. The answer is 2/3rds of course.

>>515247879
>its vert telling.. this question is basically a turing test for midwits that think they are smarter then they are and wont listen when corrected.
Indeed it is.
The third box is entirely irrelevant to the solution, however.
>>515247897
That's a very butthurt way to admit you're wrong. I accept your concession anyway.

>>515247244
It isn't you do not understand probabilistics.
>>515247151
Is right. At this point it is 50/50.
1/3 chance is when you take all moves into account.

It is simple - you have 1/3 chance to get a box with gold+silver ball from the beginning.

But if you already have a ball, you eliminate one box and are left with only two boxes. So from this point on you have 1/2 chance of having a box with both balls before you.

Both probabilities are correct. Because it is still just probability but calculated at other point in time. Something morons posting this "paradox" do not understand.

I.e: you play blackjack and count cards. How probable it is that you will get 21 in first deal. And how probable it is after most deck is played. It changes with the flow of the game and which cards were played. The same shit with poker. And proffessional card players know this. And it is not any paradox. It is how probability works.

>>515247601
Lmao

>>515247994
You don't know if the GG or GS box has been eliminated.
That's the mistake you're making.
You could have picked G1, leaving G2.
You could have picked G2, leaving G1.
Or you could have picked G3, leaving S1.
That's three possibilities. You don't know because you don't know what box you have, leaving you of a 1/3rd chance of pulling S1.

obviously 1/2

>>515248087
My explanation comes straight from famed mathematician Joseph Bertrand, who discovered the paradox.
Glad to see you understand it better than he did.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox

No. Because if you're smart enough to understand the politics of the day, you're smart enough to bend and manipulate the common people into voting for your own best interests.

The only sensible government is self-governance. Unfortunately, in order for this to work it requires much human suffering and death. Because modern humans are not naturally capable of living in balance with their environment.

>>515242565
1/2 chance that you took a ball from the left box, that has another gold ball. 1/2 chance that you took a ball from the middle box, that has a silver ball. 0 chance you took a ball from the right box.

>>515247668
no that's irrelevant to the math behind it.

Its proven QED that you have already chosen either the 2G box or the 1G1S by virtue of having produced a gold ball as stated in the question.

Choosing a 2nd ball, from the *same* box as per the actual question has only two possibilities, a 2nd gold ball, or a silver ball.

Thats it, 50%
the paradox mumbo jumbo is bad math to cover bad math and bad reading comprehension.

>>515242565
It's 50/50, isn't it?
>get a gold ball
>impossible for it to be the silver/silver box
>which means you either have the gold/gold or gold/silver box
>50/50

>>515247113
You have that gold ball in your hand remember
So think of the rest of the balls really as one big box (it doesn't really "matter" which box you picked)
So there's only 3 balls you could pick next (admittedly the question doesn't say "without replacement")
Remember one gold ball is gone
So there's only 2 gold balls and 1 silver
Now just think, what if I asked you "I have 3 balls in a box, 2 gold and one silver - what's the odds I (randomly)pick a silver ball"
It's 1/3 right

>>515247668
The question is not asking you whether you're going to pick out gold ball 1 or gold ball 2 from the first box, all gold balls are the same.

Elections would be better if the weight of our votes was based on our income tax contributions.

>>515247236
You don't know what box you originally picked from, so functionally the "two boxes" are one big box

>>515248343
Or... now try this for size... you're not actually as smart as you think you are and dismissing it as mumbo jumbo is just your midwit way of coping with that fact.
There are three possibilities after the first gold ball is picked. Not two. That's what you are missing.
You either picked G1, G2, or G3. The remaining ball can either be G1, G2, or S1. That's three possibilities, not two, making 1/2 an impossibility.

>>515248432
what the fuck are you talking about thats not what the image says

>>515248367
It's 5050, but they want to gaslight you into believing that the incidental odds are the same as system odds.

>>515242565
Only if there is one for paying taxes

>>515248493
They are, but, as I explained, you either picked G1, G2, or G3. The remaining ball can either be G1, G2, or S1. That's three possibilities, not two, making 1/2 an impossibility.

>>515247343
how can get the first part right and fuck it up so badly?

>>515242565
Is it wrong to see it as you having the gold ball in your hand.
Then rethink your chances, with that in mind?

>>515247994
the question states you pulled a gold ball, this eliminates precisely ONE box, the 2S box.

You now calculate the odds based on the remaining 1s1g and 2g boxes being left, with both boxes condition being at -1g ball, leaving only two possibilities 1g or 1s, being equal.

50% and you can fight me in the parking lot later if you dont agree

Its 50%. You couldnt have taken the ball out of the box with 2 silver balls.

>>515244936
good suggestion, anybody with an iq over 90 should leave this board immediately

>>515247217
That's only one possible "branch" of the probability space
Try a simple practical "experiment" with the same conditions and you'll understand it
Or try, by hand, writing out all the possible "steps" and possibilities

>>515247244
>>515247388
>he thinks he's smart because he read a Wikipedia page.
>>515246849
To put it in different words:
At the moment you drew the gold ball, there was a 2/3 chance that you drew it from box one, vice 1/3 chance that you drew the ball from box two. Thats why the answer is 2/3.
The answer to the question is including the fact that you reached in and drew the gold ball, which I think is stupid.
It changes depending on the wording of the prompt.

>>515248226
And there is explanation that you cannot understand:
>Bertrand's purpose for constructing this example was to show that merely counting cases is not always proper. Instead, one should sum the probabilities that the cases would produce the observed result.

His paradox is only true when you count the full probability from the beginning and not divide it into parts.
Which is still only a probability. And if you know basics of it it really is 2/3 but only if you count the whole process.
If you start from "you already took the ball" you only have 1/2 chance. Which is the same chance as 2/3 when counting the full range of this ball lottery.

The whole paradox is actually more semantics than mathematics.
The real question should be "what is probability of taking the silver ball first and then having second silver ball in the same box"
Instead of "You already took silver ball, what is the probability of having another one in the same box" - which changes the starting point of the probability calculation.
But it all is semantics. The overall probability of the problem stays the same.

>>515242565
The dangerous voters aren't the people who would think it was 1/2 when trying to solve this. The dangerous voters are the ones like the people in this thread who refuse to accept that the answer is 1/3 after it's been thoroughly explained to them.

>>515243940
>all the stupid illiterate monkies in this thread
ATSIMITT
T
S
M
I
T
T
Did the illustration placement confuse these people? Did a simple paragraph break make them beliefe the problem set-up ended with elimination of two silver balls in an ocean of balls?
It hurts my brain to try to fathom what all you mongoloids are thinking.

ok retards think about it this way. what is the probability that you picked a gold ball out of the third box? obviously it's 0 because it has no gold balls in it. this means that the number of gold balls in each box affects the chance of pulling a gold ball from it on your first try. since the first box has more gold balls in it than the second box that means that you have a higher chance of having picked your gold ball from the first box.

>its 1/3 evendoe you either get the gold ball or the silver ball

>>515248647
Again, there is no choice. You are holding a ball. There is one box in front of you.

>>515248913
Excuse me
*silver, not gold. Not 2/3.

>>515247343
I get what you're saying, but the fact you pulled a gold ball first means you're more likely to have the two gold ball box.

>>515248913
I don't claim to be smart at all (and the fact that I'm posting here in the first place proves I'm fucking not), I just understand this particular problem.
The chances of drawing the silver ball is 1/3rd and anyone who doesn't get it at this point is more retarded than even I am, which is fucking sad.

File: Monty_open_door_chances.svg.png (6 KB, 197x214)

6 KB PNG

Reminds me of the 3 door question.
>chose door 1
>door 3 is opened showing the goat, and the guy asks you if you want to change doors
>changing to door 2 apparently doubles your odds

>>515248788
You got one gold.
what's left behind? Either a box with 1 gold, or one with one silver.
why does it matter that there are 3 gold balls at the beginning, when you know that you already took out 1 gold ball from the box?
GG
GS
Took one gold out. Left with
G
S
why would, by the above step, matter that you started with 3 gold balls?

>>515248973
You actually completely twisted what that quote was saying.
The point is that 1/2 seems like the obvious answer, but it's not. 1/2 is the result you'd derive if you simply counted cases.
Breaking down the problem gives 2/3rds chance for gold, 1/3rd chance for silver because there are three situations which could have occurred when you drew the gold ball in the first place.

>>515248587
And that's why it feels so weird. One box was eliminated, so there are three remaining balls in the system, two of which are gold, so 2/3
HOWEVER, in front of me there is a single box containing a single other ball, and it can either be the box with the silver remaining, or the box with the gold remaining, so saying it's not 50:50 feels wrong when I only have two boxes to consider.

>>515242565
50%
Anyone arguing for anything else is retarded nigger.

>>515249143
>3 doors
>33% chance you picked the right one
>one door is eliminated
>choosing one of the remaining is a 50/50 chance to be correct
Odds are higher you were wrong on your first choice, but with more data you stand in a better position by switch

File: 1753983024583161.jpg (234 KB, 1024x1008)

234 KB JPG

You took out a gold ball from one of the two boxes that had a gold ball in it, which one of those two boxes was it?

>>515248568
>Byelo
>White
I can only assume the naming of your country was some sort of international joke
Try reading, nigger

>>515249249
you are illiterate. Even your wiki page tells you where the 1/2 and 2/3 probability comes from. It literally comes from looking at probability at different time.
And looking at your answers you never did any probability classes apparently and never calculated any probability of consecutive actions.
If you did you would easily understand that at point in time you have 1/2 chances but with first probability of 1/3 you end up having 2/3 overall probability. But only if the first 1/3 probability ends up in success.

>>515249483
youre only allowed to take the ball from the same box so its either a gold ball or a silver ball

>>515243710
>If you took out a gold ball, you know that the box full of silver is not an option. So that leaves only 2 boxes; there are 2 gold balls left and 1 silver ball. That's a 1 out of 3 chance.
>I refuse to believe anyone can get this wrong.
This is the Jewish math used to deny insurance claims. Once you've grabbed a ball you're locked into that box. The other ball is either silver or gold. There's a bus with 2 gold but it's a moot point. If you reached into the split box the one other ball is silver, if you reached into the gold box the other singular ball is gold. If you put the ball back then sure, it'd be 1 in 3 , but you're not replacing it as evidenced by the phrase "next ball." If you were able to change boxes, sure but you can't because then you're adding the double silver back into the mix.

>>515248538

There are only two balls in each box anon,
You are told you picked one gold ball, out of one box. This proves you have a gold ball already in hand eliminating one box. You pick a 2nd ball from the same box, and the ONLY out comes from that second choice are silver or gold, thats it. You adding a phantom 3rd ball to add into it to make the math wrong is still wrong.

If this is G1,G2, or G3/S1 is irrelevant to the math.
You picked G(unknown) and despite you not knowing which one of the three it is, this does not alter the future chance of drawing another gold ball because it does not matter which gold ball is pulled.

All the chance is depending on is if the next ball is G/S, it does not care which gold ball it is, just that its A gold ball.

Two of the gold balls has a gold pair. Only one gold ball has a silver pair.

>>515243710
The easiest way to teach them is to have them label each of the gold balls with a letter: A, B, or C. Then the answer becomes obvious.

>>515249321
Except you're clearly wrong. Think about it moar.
>You have picked up 1 of 3 gold balls....

>>515249191
You're misreading it, go back and look at the picture again
You have two boxes [GG] [GS]
You've just pulled one gold ball from one of the boxes
---THIS is where the "scenario" "begins"----
So what's left ?

>>515249037
yes anon, you picked out of one box, and must pick again from the same box. as I have stated, you seem to be missing that.

>>515249678
imagine the second box has 1 million silver balls and one gold ball. your first ball is gold. what is the chance that it was from the second box?

>>515248649
>You couldn't have taken the silver ball from the middle box either

>>515242565
Since this thread is filled with retards who cannot fundamentally understand logic, I’ll ask a question equivalent to OP’s. If you cannot see how this is the same question then you would fail the election IQ test
>There are two boxes in front of you. One has a gold ball and the other has a silver ball. You choose a box at random. What is the probability that the box contains a gold ball?

>>515242565
Miga retard trying to get people to fondle his balls.

>>515249984
>you seem to be missing
There is one box.

>>515249618
I have one big box [GGGS]
I just pulled a gold ball out and it's in my hand
How many balls are left in the box ? (and how many of each colour ?)
Ok, now I'm going to pull another ball out
What's the odds I pull out a silver ball ?

>>515242565
50%

>>515243710
You already drew one ball, the possibility is either one more gold ball or one more silver ball and nothing else.
Congrats, you are fucking retarded. And the worst type of retard, an arrogantly wrong retard at that.

>>515249563
You misunderstand. Here's a example that makes it clear.

Let's say you have 2 boxes. One is filled with 1,000,000 gold balls, the other is filled with 1 gold ball and 999,999 sliver balls. You pick a box and ball at random and it's gold. What is the chance the rest of the balls in that box are gold?

If your answer is 50%, you are too low IQ to ever understand probability.

If you can't figure out 1/2 you shouldn't get to vote
and i have to question if you're white

>>515249091
It's good you admit you are retarded. Please don't reproduce.

>>515249904
>What is the probability that the NEXT ball you take from the SAME box will be silver?
Learn to read, Paki.
By picking up the golden ball the S2 box is eliminated.
You have picked up a G1 from either S1G1 or G2.
By doing that it's the same as picking the golden one from both boxes at the same time.
The ball left in the box you took the G1 from either contains a G1 or a S1, because you pulled out a G1.
The probability of either ball is 50%.

Learn English and math, retard.

>>515250116
Math vs logic?

>>515242565
I think picrel is not suitable as a test
It's not a test of intelligence but instead a test of whether you know how to be careful around probability questions and have seen this type of question before (e.g. like a riddle)
It would filter out too many people.
As for the idea in general, you would need an enormous number of checks and balances to avoid it being misused by a naughty government. A government could make the test hard and leak the answers to party members and voters. I can see a goverment expanding the test into whether someone is mentally sound or has 'done something for society'.

>>515250141
fondle?
No. I want you to lick and suck.

It's 50%, and another characteristic of intelligence is not wasting your time on dumb shit that makes no difference. Therefore, I will not be arguing with you over how you're wrong, because its not worth my time and it wont change the reality that the answer is still 50%.

Understand it or dont, not my fucking problem. I'm going to go take a nap.

>>515250339
You don’t understand the question. You’ve already picked a gold ball. The probability of that happening is irrelevant since it already did happen before the question is being asked

>>515250498
>It would filter out too many people
Yeah, the retards.
It's perfect.

>>515250498
"Can you get tricked by certain phrasing?" sort of test

>>515250498
It's actually a test of whether you can spot the retarded examiner.

>>515249933
[GG] [GS]
Take out one G
GG becomes G
GS becomes S

File: There is no other option (...).png (138 KB, 1434x917)

138 KB PNG

>>515242565
The definitive answer. 50/50.

It might be the picture that is confusing people. Because it may trick people into thinking there is some type of ordering, that you are always picking a ball in the first "slot," in this case if the order was maintained, the answer would be 50%. But the order is not. So you can imagine its like 6 possibilities, 2 double gold, gold+silver, silver+gold, 2 double silver, if you pick the first you're options left are 2 double gold, 1 gold + silver. 1/3. Or thing of pairs like >>515249686

>>515242565
The fact that you've drawn gold eliminates the box with two silvers. Then you're left with two boxes. Either you've drawn gold from the double gold box and have a 0% probability of drawing silver, or youve drawn gold from the gold and silver box and then you have a 100% probability of drawing silver. So the answer is 50%

>>515249998
imagine the boxes only have one ball each, either gold or silver. your first ball is gold. what is the probability that you chose a gold ball?

>>515250589
inb4 next year round they test for something taught mostly by private schools (i dunno latin or logical fallacies)

>>515250498
It's extremely simple. Calling it a riddle is stretch.
The fact that so many anons in this very thread are struggling with it is alarming.

>>515250562
My question is formed the exact same way as the OP question. If you think the answer is 50%, you are simply retarded.

>>515250265
But you have two boxes, not one big box.

Thanks for making this thread OP.
It reminded me that most of /pol/ are filled with retarded shitskins.
(you) will not be joining the ethnostate.

>>515250265
in this situation its 1/3
but in the image you pull out a gold ball, so the box with only silver balls is out of the equation
the only boxes left have either all gold balls or one gold ball one silver ball

>>515242565
Internal monologue requirement.
If you don't have that you are a litteral sheep.

>>515250732
it says "the next ball you take from the same box"

>>515250856
>Next year the test will be in latin or logical fallacies
good.
Retards should not have a right to say anything.

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>>515250901
Anon, I have bad news for you....

>>515242565
For other anons to become smarter:

>There are a total of three gold balls.
>A gold ball has a 66% chance of being in a box with another gold ball.
>Having picked up a gold ball, there's a higher chance that the other ball is also gold.

>>515251036
>logical fallacies
Oh boy, I can't wait to hear about the thing currently happening that totally can't happen because it is illogical.

>>515250806
>your chance of winning the lottery is 50/50 you either win or you don't

You're taking the ball out from the same box. Not a different box, the same box.
Since you've already drawn a ball out from this box and it was gold, it's like the double silver box doesn't exist anymore. Leaving only 2 options.
The double silver is a distraction, because you're drawing from the SAME box. I think that's whats getting most of you, you seem to be thinking the next ball you remove is coming from a different box. Since you've already pulled one gold ball out, it wasn't possible that you drew a ball from the double silver, so it's removed. It doesn't exist.

retards
I sentence you to watching the entire series of Glee as punishment, you stupid faggots.

>>515250901
Once again, actually read the question. It is not asking about probabilities relating to picking a box and grabbing a gold ball. That happened. It’s absolutely certain. What you are being asked to figure out is taking that as a given, what is the chance that the other ball you grab from the SAME box is also gold? Put another way: >>515250116. Congratulations on failing the IQ test btw

>>515251167
in order to receive the lottery winnings you have to first eat this plate of gold balls

>>515250732
>2 double gold
Why?
You have two boxes. You either picked from 2 gold or gold+silver. The quantity of balls is irrelevant.

>>515249034
Ok, I admit you got me, you were le trelling me xd

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>>515242565
you can have high IQ and be pedophile like kikes

>>515242565
>silver first, silver second
>silver first, gold second
Those are Discarded.
>gold first, silver second
>gold first, gols second
You draw gold first, leaving either silver second and gold second as your options. 50/50.

>>515249686
I get that. But the question is saying you already have 1 gold ball out of the box.
The ball you took out, either is paired with a gold ball or with a silver ball.

>>515250723
Sorry anon you have to also account for the information that you DIDN'T pick up a silver ball. This indicates you likely picked up a ball from the first box with two gold balls, since 2/3rds of the gold balls are in one box.

>>515250939
It's not asking what are the odds you pick a certain box

>>515250723
if you understand that having no gold balls lowers your chance of pulling a gold ball from a box by the exact same logic having more gold balls increases it.

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>>515250339
Since you are forced to draw from the same box you drew your initial ball, wouldn't the question just be: you have two boxes, one with silver, one with gold, which one you get it if you picked one?

>first we assign the event of me guessing as variable "x"
>we then set x = correct
>therefore the probability of me being correct is true%

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>>515250712

>>515243445
correct

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>>515251597

we are all forgetting that the silver box still exists and counts, therefore the TRUE answer would be 2/6
>s1s2
>s2s1
>g1g2
>g2g1
>s1g1
>g1s1
>but you cant count the silver ones because you picked a gold one first
is what a mentally retarded person may say 5/6th of the time

>>515250919
Which box did you pick from ?

>>515251597
you dont know from which box u took the gold ball so the next one from the same box is either a GOLD or SILVER ball

>>515251749
This. All boxes are separate and you're forced to pick from the same box twice.

>>515251199
Yes, that's exactly how my question works too. >>515250339 If you think it's 50%, you are retarded.

>>515251795
One of the two boxes. And I'll pick the next ball from the very same box.

>>515251807
Ah, but you forget! The golden balls are linked by luck magics!

>>515251863
Ok and which one was that ?
So there are two scenarios to consider

>>515242565
Yes. We'd have literal fascism if we set it to 120+.

>>515251749
>>515251829

The separation of containers is irrelevant UNTIL you must consider your odds, because it's not as if you can see in the box anyways.

>I picked up a gold ball.
What does this mean?
>Gold balls only exist in two containers.
>In one container, it's 100% chance of picking up a gold ball.

Once you realize 2/3 gold balls are in one container, you understand that you very likely picked a ball from that container. Therefore, the other ball is also more likely to be gold.

>>515251036
but i don't know latin ;-;
>>515250498
Other, non-intellectual criteria could be whether you are employed, have children or have started/run a business, done community work

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>>515251853
>yes I see this setup that a 4 year old could tell you has a 50% chance and is logically equivalent to the OP
>let me point to this OTHER setup which is also logically equivalent to OP that also has a 50% chance
>you’re retarded if you think it’s 50%

>>515242565
path 1/2: you tooketh the ball from bin 1
now the bins look like this:
G_____GS_____SS
the probability that the second ball you taketh from the bin 1 is silber is thus 0% because there are no other ballsies than golden (one single golden piece) in that bin

path 2: you tooketh the ball from bin 2
now the bins look like this:
GG_____S_____SS
the probability that the second ball you taketh from the bin 2 is silber is thus 100% because there are no other ballsies in that bin (there is only a single silver ballsy left in that bin)

Now the probability for path 1 is 50% and path 2 is 50%, because you know you have chosen a golden ball so there is zero possibility that you are "dipping" your hand in box 3. And since the probability the asker is asking is not "the overall probability" meaning you have to factor in the probabilities in reaching the first golden ball but just the probability AFTER that choice and probability has already occurred, it's easy consequence. 50% times 100% + 50% times 100% giveth us 50% as the final answer.

The answer is thus 50%

(or 0.5 if you don't like the percentage representation, the conversion is elementary though, one hundred (100) percent is the same as 1 so you can "swap" between probs and pers-probs by the the equations: probs = pers-probs/100, pers-probs = 100*probs)

>>515251807
Go and actually physically do it, if you're still having brain problems
I know you're doing a very good impression of a midwit, but I'm playing along for the sake of argument.

>>515252009
Exactly. It's either one scenario or the other.

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>>515243445
I'm thinking of buying a lottery ticket today. You made me realize something: my odds of winning the lottery are 50/50. I either win or I don't.

By the way, anyone who still doesn't get the explanation for why it's 1/3 even after having it explained to them multiple times is a straight up retard and should probably kill themselves.

>>515252178
True, the odds of anything happening is 50:50, it either happens or not

>>515251597
It's two separate boxes.
You took one gold out, from whichever box you picked.
You strike out one gold ball from EACH box.
I'll search on youtube later for an explanation.

>>515251772
>we are all forgetting that the silver box still exists and counts
no because it says you're drawing from the same box
and there are only 2 possible boxes you can draw from if your first ball you drew was gold
so that eliminates the double silver box

>>515252313
Only if there are two possibilities.

With every reply we draw closer to the one math major retard posting who wrote a program that is just the coin flip paradox and doesn't understand that simulated outcome is not probability.

Your initial odds of picking the gold ball in the box with the silver ball was 1/6.
Your odds of picking one of the gold balls in the box with two gold balls was 1/3.
People who are saying "1/2" are ignoring this essential fact.
Given that the odds were greater that you picked the box with two gold balls, and given that you don't know which box you have, the odds of pulling the silver ball are lower. It is more likely that you have the other box.
1/3.
Anyone who does not grasp this is an absolute midwit.

>>515245361
>>515245187
That is literally irrelevant. The question deliberately states that you have picked one ball and that was golden. The probability of that picking is thus discarded, it doesn't matter anymore, probability of that event has "collapsed" (if you know even the basics of quantum mechanics to understand the "analogy"), it has happened.

This should be the new puzzle required to post.

>>515251468
well, you pick a box (not ball) at random (3rd is excluded since as it's told, a gold ball will always be first)
if it's 1 you have 0% of it being silver, while in the second 100%. so 1 in 2 which is 50%

>>515252411
"Programmers." Never again.

>>515252333
1. human error, it will be accounted for during the write-up
2. only alchemists should be allowed to vote. by simply transmuting the silver into gold, the probability is much more fluid

>>515242565
>box picked at random
1/3 odds
>odds of the box you have having a second gold ball
1/2 odds
Literal niggerfaggots like OP always use this as gotcha for giving either answer.
It is a literacy check.

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I don't give a fuck, it's 1/2 no matter what any of you retards try to come up with
>get a gold ball
>only two boxes left
>box 1: gold ball
>box 2: silver ball
50/50

>>515251597
Please don't reproduce.

>>515252461
It's only irrelevant because you insist on being a midwit and wrong.
If you pick a gold ball, odds are greater that you got the box with two gold balls than having the one with a gold and a silver.
Look at it this way. Let's presume you have a box with 10,000 silver balls, a box with 9,999 silver balls and one gold, and a box with 10,000 gold balls. Which is more likely - that you grabbed the one gold ball from the second box or that you, in fact, have the third.

>>515252544
>you pick a box (not ball) at random
>>515242565
>You put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random.

>>515251795
You don't know, but you know that you have to pick from the same box.

>>515252544
Imagine the same problem, but replace
>it's a gold ball
with
>you repeat this from the beginning until the ball you pull out is gold
Does your answer change?

>>515248087
literally this, the event of picking the first ball has happened and the asker specifically goes to great lengths to say that this event does not matter, we are interested only in the probs of the next ballsy-drawing

it doesn't matter a single shit if the original probability to arrive at the box containing a golden ball you are now holding in your handies was 1/3253 or 1/2 or 1/3, it HAS HAPPENED, the probability function for that even has COLLAPSED, it is to be IGNORED because it DOESN'T MATTER ANYMORE

the correct answer is 50%

>>515252275
what's scary isn't just that you're dumb but that you're so confident in being wrong

>>515252461
Look. It's really not that hard to understand. You can even test it out by running this experiment for yourself.

Since some people seem to be incredibly retarded and can't grasp how probability works, maybe it'd be easier if you scaled up the problem:

>Box A has 6 gorillion gold balls
>Box B has 1 gold ball and 5,999,999 silver balls
>Box C has 6 gorillion silver balls

If you pick a ball out of a box, and it's gold, what are the odds that the next ball taken from the same box will be gold?

It's a near certainty. You almost certainly picked box A.

If you still fail to understand why the probability isn't 50/50 after being exposed to this example, then you are hopeless and suck balls at math.

>>515252757
>imagine it's the same problem, but different

>>515252773
You assume you have the same odds of having either box.
You absolutely don't.
It is twice as likely you have the box with two gold balls than the one with only one. 2 out of 6 vs 1 out of 6.
That makes it less likely the other ball is silver because it's not so likely you have that box in the first place.

>>515252776
Sir, the 1/3 posters are fine. It's the 2/3 posters you have to worry about.
You aren't a 2/3 poster, are you?

>>515252544
I understand what you are trying to say but it ignores the fact that if you pick up any gold ball there's a higher chance it's in a box with another gold ball.

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I know it's a meme thread, but I'm bored. The key is looking at the odds of picking each yellow ball, which is equal odds or 1/3.
It's easy to see that you're twice as likely to pick the box with the two yellow balls.
So, 1:3 chance to pick the box with the silver ball.

>>515245361
Good clear and correct explanation. I'd augment it with the preliminary statement that the a-priori probability of picking any of the 3 gold balls is equal, which is true with a moment's reflection. Thus the conditional probabilities (after pulling a gold ball) of the three cases listed are equal, each being 1/3.

The other way would be to use Baye's theorem.

>>515252694
nope, you are the midwitting faggot here, you have taken just enough math classes in high-school to think you are smart (basic conditional probbing) but you lack the actual understanding of what is even asked or done here

Meanwhile I literally got masters degree in pure math.

>>515253086
Yeah, you're just trolling and doing a damn good job of it.
Kudos to you, fren. :)

>First reading
>"It's 50%"
>No, but you have to...
>"Ok, one third."
>but it SPECIFICALLY...
>"Fine. 50%. Your question is wrong."

>>515252863
But there aren't 6 gorillions.
There's only two, and you already took out one.

my fucking god I know some of the 1/2 posters most be trolls but there are to many and putting too much effort to all be trolls, how fucking low is the avrg IQ of this board, why do I even come here?half of you are literal retards

>>515253086
Retard, you're in here talking about quantum mechanics in a discussion about probability. You're a fucking dullard. Shut up.

>>515242565
60%

>>515252116
If they picked a silver ball first it would still be the same. The overall probability is bound in the 3 boxes of 6 balls that equal out as 50% each. 100%G. 50%GS 100%S. Perfectly balanced.

>>515252702
since it said it's a gold ball always first, it can't be random, and after that you can either get a silver one if it's the second box or another gold one in the first
>>515252757
even though it's impossible in real life, the first ball will always be gold

>>515253179
>retarded brownoid is incapable of abstract thinking
MANY such cases.

>>515246849
But given that you got a gold ball, you more likely got it from the box with 2 gold balls than the one with one of each.

>>515253179
You missed the point.
It boils down to which box is it more probable that you have - the one that had two gold balls or the one with only one.
You are twice as likely to have the box with two. And, given that, it is twice as likely that the other ball will be gold.

>>515252319
I underestimated you because of your flag, I assumed you were just a genuine 90 IQ Mexican but now I see you've cleverly le trolled me

>>515252683
Retard

>>515246692
It’s only a paradox for retards.

>>515253086
>masters degree in pure math.
That only happens if you can't pass the doctoral qualifying exam.

>>515252926
You literally still don't even understand what is being asked here. Hint: the question is not "what is the total probability of getting silvery ballsy on your second draw when getting goldy ballsy on your first draw"

the probability for the first selection has collapsed, it is 1 now, the choice has been made (and the choice may not have been fair in the first place, just imagine if some trickster is just tricking you changing bins and shit and you always end up in GS bin, because that "choice" HAS BEEN MADE FOR YOU, you can't presume that choice was fair in the first place (you literally show all the midwittery thinking patterns in your futile attempts to explain your faggotry)

nope.
>>515243552
>>515244069
(you)
the midwit take is actually 2/3. the low iq and high iq take is most likely the same answer, which will not be explained to you in this comment. if you know you know. your replies will be ignored.

>>515253046
nope, that's just wrong and assumes the question is about the total probability (hint: the asker was very clear that he isn't interested in the total probability)

>>515253517
Kek, I understand it just fine.
I also understand you are le epic troll.
I bow to your prowess. *bow*

>>515252668

you have true 50/50 to pull gold or silver on the first ball only.

G G | G S | S S

once you pick a gold or silver ball, you have an immediate 2/3 chance to pull the same ball out because one of the boxes has been eliminated from contributing to the ODDs.

i.e,
[ X G ] [ G S ] or [ G X ] [ G S ] or [ G G ] [ X S ]

>>515253238
>since it said it's a gold ball always first, it can't be random
No, it says you pick a ball at random and it's gold.

>>515253607
If you were high IQ you would have no problem explaining your wrong answer. If you're low IQ you have no idea, which fits the observed data.

>>515251235
But if you pulled a gold you'd have been twice as likely to do so from the double gold box.

>>515253749
In front of you is one box.
You are holding a gold ball.

>>515252863
In that case the probability is maybe 1/273,000 mostly from Typhus

>>515253517
But it's more likely that your gold ball came from the 2-gold box. You were equally likely to pick any of the 3 boxes, and since you got a gold one, that increases the probability that you picked the 2-gold box.

So receiving the gold ball did more than eliminate the 2-silver. It also shifted the odds between the remaining two.

>>515253837
OK how much is my gold ball worth? I'll weigh it and have it assayed. Other than that, what does your comment have to do with the problem?

>>515253902
THERE IS ONE BOX.

The question focuses on balls not boxes. You eliminated the silver silver box. Of the two boxes left there's a 50/50 chance you're in the mixed box or the pure gold. There could be infinite gold in the gold box, it's a moot point. You either picked the mixed one or you didn't.

>>515253837
>>515253902
What happened before is not relevant.
You have a golden ball. You have a box. Inside of this box there is either a golden ball or a silver ball.

>>515253749
It’s been explained to you multiple times in this very thread but you don’t like that so you pretended like it didn’t happen
>>515253778
Just to gauge your reading abilities, tell me the answer to this question
>There are 3 boxes. Each box contains 2 balls. One box contains 2 gold balls, another box contains 2 silver balls, and the final box contains one gold ball and one silver ball.
>You pick box at random. You put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random. It's a gold ball. What is the probability that the ball you’re holding is gold?

>>515252863
this is not how probability works

your mortal sin here is to assume that you actually got to chose your bin, but the question is very clear on that: you didn't get to choose, you just have a golden ballsy now in your handies and no way to know if that was a fair choice or not

just try running your "simulation" starting from the fact that you have golden ballsy now in your handies: so you are either in bin 1 with remaining goldy or bin 2 with remaining silvery, and both boxes have 50% to be in at this point of time

you don't get to start your "simulation" from choosing the first box! that shit would violate the whole premise of getting told you've got one goldy!

>>515250339
>Let's say you have 2 boxes. One is filled with 1,000,000 gold balls, the other is filled with 1 gold ball and 999,999 sliver balls. You pick a box and ball at random and it's gold. What is the chance the rest of the balls in that box are gold?
Let's say you completely change the parameters of the scenario. Quit with the Hebraic math, Shlomo. Pay the insurance claim.

>>515254068
It's boxes and balls. You're reaching into the same box as you pulled the first ball from and that matters.
If you pulled a gold, odds are twice as high that you have the box with two golds than a gold and a silver.
It's about the probability of having selected a particular box.

>>515254081
Right. And there's a 2/3 chance that the box before me started with 2 gold. 1/3 chance that it was gold-silver, and it was definitely not the 2 silver box.

>>515242565
This could be rephrased as "what are the odds that you randomly pick the second box out of the three?" So 1/3.

>>515254123
>you didn't get to choose, you just have a golden ballsy now in your handies and no way to know if that was a fair choice or not
It clearly says it's a random choice.

>>515254275
But that's not the question.

>>515254113
100%...

>>515254123
>your mortal sin here is to assume that you actually got to chose your bin
"You pick a box at random."

>>515253691
>[ X G ] [ G S ]
Shouldn't it be [ X G ] [ X S ] and so?

>>515251468
>Sorry anon you have to also account for the information that you DIDN'T pick up a silver ball
That's baked into the fact you picked up a gold ball you fucking Jew. Let's add that he DIDN'T pick up a lead ball and the Holocaust DIDN'T happen. Cool, nothing in the scenario changes.

>>515254354
The question is what is the other ball in the same box. But that follows from whether it was the 2 gold box (i.e. gold) or the gold-silver box (i.e. silver).

>>515243445
Winning the lottery is 50/50 you either win or you don't

>>515254361
Correct. Because it already happened. What is the situation with the boxes and balls at this point?

>>515254466
p = 1/3, but the Holocaust happened.

GODDAMMIT YOU ARE A BUNCH OF MIDWIT RETARDS
YES
YES, ELECTIONS WOULD BE BETTER IF AN IQ TEST WAS REQUIRED

>>515254532
Reasonable analogy, if he gets it.

>>515254534
What difference, at this point, does it make?

>>515243710
I love seeing people be wrong with absolute confidence.
You're a RETARD, lol.

>>515253502
we don't have "doctoral qualifying exam" here in Finland, you dumb mutt, you graduate with the title "doctor" when you pass a few basic courses and do enough research that ends in publications or one big publication called a monograph, but in math practically nobody does monograpsh anymore as their doctorate paper, the norm is that you publish like 3 papers, combine them, and it's automatic acceptance if they are of even some quality, no need to be some newborn Gauss, getting the masters is the hard part of university math, doctorate is more about being comfortable and wanting to deal with academia shit) but thank you for asking I'm currently indeed in doctoral program (FYI plenty of math majors stop at masters if they aren't interested in academia shenaniggers but go for finance faggotry and shit, for example,)

>>515242565
0%, with jews you can't win.

>>515254512
>But that follows from
But it doesn't. It doesn't "follow from" anything.
You have a box. You have a golden ball. In this box there is either a golden ball or a silver ball.

>>515254592
never mind election anyone who unironicaly thinks is 1/2 should be sterilized and forced into slave labour for the rest of his life

>>515254534
The box you are about to draw the second ball from is twice as likely to be the double gold...

Think if it like if 1 out of a million people are professional golfers. And then you take the winner of a world class golfing tournament. What is the chances they are a professional golf player? That they already won already happened, that doesn't mean it doesn't affect the odds.

double gold box is twice as likely to give gold balls when drawing the first ball. just like a professional golfer is more likely to win.

>>515254778
advise you not admit you got this wrong. Brush up if they're going to have you TA a probability class for the undergrads.

>>515254904
It does though.
What are the odds you have the box with one gold and one silver?
What are the odds that you have the box with two golds?

>>515254275
That is only assuming the first draw was fair and square in the first place, and of that we know NOTHING. That is the part you are getting wrong. If the question were about the complete path starting with one actual non-biased draw, THEN the answer would indeed be 1/3, but alas, it isn't the case. The first draw has been made and you know nothing about HOW it was actually made, all you know is that you are now in bin 1 with probability 0.5 or bin 2 with probability 0.5

>>515254778
Keep at it anon, you can become the next Jeffrey Epstein

>>515254904
I am old, but I don't have amnesia like that. What's your excuse?

You would make a terrible contract bridge player. You have to interpret all the clues you can find at the table to figure out what cards are in the hands of the other players that you don't see.

>>515254305
If you're talking about the odds AFTER removing the box with two silver balls: 2/3. The box with two gold balls has literally twice the amount of gold balls than the other one, so 2/3 v. 1/3.

>>515254585
Yes, and it was Dresden.

>>515255110
I accept your surrender. Of course the standard assumption is that "random" means flat probabilities, 1/3 for each box. But you know that.

lol

>>515254680
Because that’s the point at which the question in OP is actually asked. Getting it right is critical to getting the correct answer
>>515254974
At the point the question is being asked you are holding a gold ball and in front of you is a box that contains either another gold ball or a silver ball

>>515254081
Started with 3 boxes.
Two of the three boxes have golden ball/s.
Your first draw you get a gold.
There were 6 possible balls, 3 gold and 3 silver.
After your first draw, you eliminated the SS box.
Now there are 4 possible balls, 3 gold, 1 silver.
You took out 1 golden ball, but it's not one from each box. You took 1 out from your pool of GGGS.
I get it now, they put the first step of the silver ball, to confuse you into considering the next step is also an elimination (like with the SS box)

>>515255238
I've been to Dresden. The German Culture Museum was very interesting there, not sure it's been permitted to continue operating.

But anyway, that's what happens to war losers who followed the campaign of Goebbels. I wish they had stopped sooner. What happened to Germany was a tragedy, and it's never been the same since, and won't be in the future either because the brains have left.

>>515254394
It says "random" but you literally can't know, and that's where the crux of this problem lies. Are you midwit and naive enough to believe that the first ballsy taking was fair? if the answer is yes, you really shouldn't be voting. That's what I'm after here.