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Previous: >>517804267

Day 1,317 – Daily assessment: https://understandingwar.org/analysis/russia-ukraine/#research

â–¶Latest
>U.S. to Provide Ukraine With Intelligence for Missile Strikes Deep Inside Russia
>Yaroslavl refinery on fire
>Russia is now forced to import petroleum due to Uki bombings
>Trump calls Russia a paper tiger
>Trump has approved long-range strikes into russian territory using american weapons.
>Hungarian drones violated Ukrainian airspace - Zelenskyy said. "Preliminary, they could have been conducting reconnaissance of industrial potential in Ukrainian border areas."
>Afipsky refinery droned again.
>1x Su-34 shot down, 2x An-26 cargo planes droned. Ziggers roping.
>Russia forecasts reduction of natural gas export in 2025 by over 10%
>Budget deficit of Russia for 2025 will increase by another 1.94 trillion rubles. And amount to 5.74 trillion, or 2.6% of GDP.
>The number of available vacancies for people with disabilities in Russia has risen by 300 000 in 2025
>Trump called Russia a “paper tiger” with a collapsing economy and allowed the military victory of Ukraine
>Trump: NATO countries should shoot down russian planes if they enter their airspace
>Trump: I think Orbán will stop buying russian oil if I speak to him. I will speak to him.
>Trump: Everyone thought russia would win that war in three days. It was supposed to be a quick little skirmish. It did not turn out that way. It is making russia look bad

â–¶Telegram
https://rentry.org/telosint2023
https://t.me/ukr_pics

â–¶Intel
https://t.me/DeepStateEN
https://odin.tradoc.army.mil/WEG (equipment explorer)
https://ukr.warspotting.net (visually confirmed losses)

â–¶Maps
https://deepstatemap.live/en
https://liveuamap.com/en

â–¶DISPOSABLE SOLDIER (diary of a RU mobik)
TOUR 1: files.catbox.moe/34fuhc.txt
TOUR 2: files.catbox.moe/uj2wut.txt
TOUR 3: files.catbox.moe/hmyd98.txt
TOUR 4: files.catbox.moe/cdenxe.txt
>>
TZD
>>
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the extermination of every rusnigg and every shill is a moral imperative
>>
>>517824569
this video looks like a fever dream, imagine being russian and thinking this is a good idea
>>
will the war end in 2026? yes or no, because ziggers seem to be getting destroyed harder than before
>>
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Who must go ?
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TZD.
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>>517824691
ceasefire in 2026 yes, russian economy can't keep up. Peace treaty is unlikely, though.
>>
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>>517824691
No. TZD with no refund.
>>
>>517824773
would ukraine be willing to give russia their currently occupied land in exchange for security guarantees from nato? because we saw how their last security """guarantee""" deal went (rip) (lol)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum
>>
>>517824949
zelensky said they're willing to freeze the current frontline but they wouldn't recognize those territories as russian. that's the best rusniggs will get and putin still want more. As far as security guarantees goes, a fully armed ukraine is its best security guarantee.
>>
>>517825062
zelensky would have to be a retard to fall for the fake security guarantees twice
fool me twice shame on me
>>
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>>517825062
There are no security guarantees at all lol. West cannot protect anyone nowadays. Before you start seething and screeching remember Budapest memorandum.
>>
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>pee pee poo poo
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>>517825194
that's why they are arming themselves to the teeth. Still doesn't hurt to get a guarantee in the meantime.
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Killing russians non-stop is the best security guarantees.
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>>517824655
What?! Don't take my lolcows away! Beige and faggotxio have comedic value. We already lost so many... redrocketz, loltroonliet, mel gibson cholo, ALL CAPS HOMO
Pour a little piss on the curb for my vatnik retards
>>
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heh
>>
so.. despite all the shills denying that total refinery death didn't matter, now it matters?
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khazakstan bans oil exports to puccia
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>>517825316
this
also best security guarantee for the future is total russia fragmentation.
make russia small again, problem solved
>>
>>517825360
absolutely based
>>
Russians, do you really want to come die in the fields of western Europe? Think a bit longer and harder about this, because you are not very good at understanding your own weakness. You are a paper bear that I could pee a hole in if I wanted. Your infrastructure is poor, your economy crumbling, Assuredly, your planes will get shot down and your men obliterated in a hell of bullets, shrapnel and fire. You are too conceited for God to spare you a second glance - of course He will support the christendom of old! You wallow in spite and self inflicted decrepitude, for which we raise our eyebrows a little, but no more. Who cares for those that destroy themselves? The only thing about it that intimidates is its stupidity. Still I implore you against my better knowledge to face the reality of this universe: only you can help yourself and not with destruction, but with building. Choose wisely, come and be destroyed or live in peace with your own shortcomings and blessings. So much like the devil you are now. Return to the true path or perish.
>>
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>>517825062
Putin wants full political control of Ukraine, to install a russian puppet in Kyiv and vassalize it like Belarus, he doesn't give a fuck about Pokrovsk or any other small shithole town in Donbas. So agreeing to a ceasefire and freezing the frontline would be admitting failure. And yes, russians are slave nation so they would not care either way but on international stage everyone would understand this war was a failure and nobody would treat russia seriously anymore. Especially if Ukraine would be allowed to join EU and NATO. Putin might still not have much of a choice though but I will be surprised if he agrees to any of this unless shit really hits the fan in russian economy.
>>
>>
>>517825360
Quite based. Though there is going to be absurd amount of smuggling
>>
>Peskov announced that on October 2 (today), Putin will address the participants of the plenary session of the 22nd Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club.

"Without exaggeration, this speech is eagerly awaited around the world," Peskov said.
>>
>Another very interesting post by Z-Blogger "INSIDER-T." I should point out that he has informants in the Kremlin's decision-making circles, so in my opinion, his information is credible: "There is a real panic among the elites, comparable to those turbulent days of February 2022,
>when no one truly understood what was happening and where it would all lead.

Interlocutors in the Kremlin and the government are terrified by the upcoming mobilization – they clearly see that it will only bring chaos and intensify the recession.
>Society is already at its wit's end: fear, distrust of the authorities, and internal contradictions are growing, and the cost of military successes in Donbas is disproportionate to the losses.
>The fear of war with NATO, which until recently seemed like an abstract scenario, has now transformed into a real and acute threat. The decisions of Western leaders, the deliveries of the latest weapons to the Ukrainian army,
>and the active buildup of military presence in Eastern European countries are transforming the situation into a direct threat of full-scale conflict. Many in ruling circles fear that the local confrontation in the east of the country will escalate into a global war in which no one can stand aside.
>In this atmosphere, there is a growing misunderstanding as to why the Kremlin rejected Donald Trump's lucrative offers, which promised guaranteed control along the front lines and rejected NATO enlargement. Instead of pragmatic agreements,
>>
>>517825573
he has no choice, russia can't sustain their war no matter how much they bluff. That's why they've been poking at nato, putin needs his excuse to freeze the current gain under the pretense of being forced to play defensive against "the combined west". He need plausible deniability for having achieved zero of his objectives.
>>
>>517825748
>they chose a complicated and costly path of a slow offensive, which is literally keeping the country on the brink of exhaustion. This choice is causing deep concern and skepticism even among those close to the top, who see the price of this course as too high.
>Now, behind the scenes, the talk is not only about how to save face before the outside world, but also how to maintain control of the country. Growing discontent is already trying to erupt, and the authorities are desperately trying to suppress any signs of a crisis that threatens to destabilize.
>Because every mistake costs too much, the elites are busy finding new ways to maintain power and minimize the damage."
>>
>>517825573
>if he agrees to any of this
Russian agreement will not be necessary
>>
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>cofi status?
>>
>Sky News analyst Michael Clarke says Ukraine may still launch a surprise before winter, possibly a major strike on Crimea. Recent hits on air defense sites could pave the way for an air or amphibious assault — even the Kerch Bridge is not off the table.
>>
>>517825689
Bets up, I put a fiver on Putin blaming europe three times, bringing up nooks twice, and denying that Ukraine is a real country at least once.
>>
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>>517825833
there's no way that is possible, right? i know russia hasnt performed well but that seems farfetched
>>
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While you're here gloating about the alleged fuel crisis, Russia is retracting its good will: the ukrainian electric grid just became a legitimate target for Russia. I wholeheartedly recommend every ukrainian flag poster buy a warm coat A.S.A.P.
>>
>>517825937
>sky news analyst
>sky news
>analyst
that's all you need to know
>>
>>517825322
>Don't take my lolcows away!
no need to despair they'll become chinese shill in the near future
>>
>>517825833
>amphibious assault
This seems extremely unlikely. At most, cross border raids seem possible.
>>
>>517826003
for real you will 100% see them show up for china vs taiwman: ukraine redux
>>
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>>517825938
Such a pity that ukrainians can't and won't hit main 700 kV transformers.
>>
>>517825788
yeah could be, we'll see, question is whether Putin is actually aware of the reality or is he living in a bubble surrounded by yes-men sycophants, if he thinks he can still win then this war will drag on

>>517825800
imho thats how West should approach this, send western troops to be stationed in Ukraine, even a token force, and formally invite Ukraine to EU and NATO, without ever asking Moscow. Just do it and force Kremlin to accept the reality. Sure, they can try to attack western troops, if they want WW3, but russians know very well they would lose such confrontation.
>>
>>517825833
Ukrainians going into Crimea that way would look something like the Odessa landings we were denied of.
>>
>>517826057
right wingers supporting russia because they're overdosed on demoralization. unless they're already fuck all i think they still "sane" enough to not support an actual commie country
>>
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>>517825938
>it's Total Hohol Decarbonization season
What a magical time of the year comrades, I'm looking forward to lots of GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOD MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOORNINGs the ukraine!, and your crocodile tears of course lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
>>
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>>517825938
>the ukrainian electric grid just became a legitimate target for Russia.
lmao what a nigger you are - not like they've been hitting that since mid 2022?
lmaaaaaaaaooooooooo
>>
>>517824773
A few drones here and there and peace will magically become a reality.
>>
>>517825938
>legitimate target
So they have been hitting it illegimately last three years?
>>
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posting more vatnigger cope because it's honestly hilarious how retarded they are
>>
>>517826262
Gloves have finally come off.
>>
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>>517826057
>will
No need to wait comrade, I can confirm this to you right now (you WILL lose the taiwan war too btw).
>>
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>muh western freezeners
>>
>>517824773
>ceasefire
Not gonna happen. The moment you have one, frogs and bongs will be putting soldiers on the ground, and monke can't afford to have that. Also printing money and spending it on war is what currently keeps the economy afloat - the fall is gonna be spectacular, but as long as it's not happening today, everythign is fine.
>>
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>muh pokrovsk copefensive
>>
>>517824569
more complicated homosexual parade
>>
>>517825987
I think thats they retired British officer that often comments on the war, I think he's ok even if he's a bit too optimistic sometimes
>>
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>TOTAL FAILURE
>>
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>>517826057
And don't forget, the juiciest lolcows, like pic related, will do it for free!
>>517826148
I love it when they try to explain how handing our future to foreign autocrats is a sane solution.
>Trust me bro, Putin will surely curb migration to western Europe.
>>
can you guys use ur tomohawk to bomb lahtino agency?

like disrupt the propaganda shills online
>>
>>517826394
In soviet russia the enemy you attack gets stronger.
>>
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>>517826394
>Why the rush?
>We uh *checks wiki for a long war*
>Fought Sweden for 20 years once hundreds of years ago!
Slow and steady wins the race
>>
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>>517826580
You are literally orphaned in this godforsaken general without comrade yours truly, comrade. However I would like to point out that I DO NOT claim your paternity, you hear me? I like my offsprings to have a triple digit iq, sorry (lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!).
>>
>>517824569
TZD
>>
>>517825833
Amphibious assaults is hard af. No point of doing that while bridge is in tact and russians are still in kherson
>>
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>>517826693
>checks wiki

https://english.nv.ua/nation/putin-bodyguard-defector-karakulov-exclusive-interview-with-nv-russia-ukraine-news-50319060.html

>he don't
Internet is invention of western forces encircling mighty ruzzia
>>
TzD bomb muscovia laugh at tsyganxio mock zhills
>>
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Dead general lmaoooooooooooooooo!
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>>517824691
Hard to say. The moment war ends, that's the moment when monke will start flying. Thus he personally will try every single trick; sending thousands pidors to their deaths just for him to live one day more - that's very on brand for a coward like him. He might be couped, he might be forced to the table, he might die. It's hard to say if any of these can happen; top oligarchs earn from the war, pidors can endure a lot of humiliation and miserable conditions, perfect slaves. I suppose it will end with pidors starving, then making a revolution in a single day out of desperation. That's probably the weakest link here.
>>
>>517824691
I reckon zigans wont revolt until 3-4mil casualties
>>
>>517827471
Keep bumping it, comrade. You have only 1 job.
>>
>>517827617
He pay is a broom in his ass.
>>
>>517827602
Zegroes are to buckbroken to revolt, ever. Stalin murdeted 40mil of them and not a single peep came out.
>>
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>Secret negotiations between NATO countries have reached an agreement how to divide Kaliningrad.
The northern part will go to Lithuania, the southern half to Poland.
>Germany agrees that all claims to this territory are transferred to Poland as reparation for WW2.
>Poland agrees that by this, the reparation question is settled and no further demands will be made.
>Russian-speaking people will be treated as enemy combattants and put in prisoner camps keeping the standards of Geneva convention. They can be released to Russia, they can't go anywhere else.
>>
>>517828043
>implying anyone wants that shithole
just cleanse it with fire then let nature have it
>>
>>517828043
wtf what's the source of this? I mean it would be awesome if true
>>
>>517828043
too much aids
>>
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>>517828098
>>
>>517828043
ew, fuck no.
Poland can take all of it
>>
>>517828098
OSINTDefender on Twitter, its in the title.
Elon Musk himself once recommened that channel as a good source of information kek
>>
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If only you knew how brown things really are
>>
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>>517828043
Another wet dream of weak and spineless european sissy men.



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