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/pol/ - Politically Incorrect


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A real case exists of one person present at both events: Arsen Ostrovsky, a survivor of the October 7 attacks (reportedly at or connected to the Nova festival site during the broader assault), who had recently moved to Australia and was injured in the 2025 Bondi Beach shooting.
Estimating the Mathematical Odds
To calculate the rough probability of any single person being present (as a victim, survivor, or attendee) at both events, we can model it simplistically under independence assumptions (though in reality, factors like Jewish community ties, relocation from Israel to Australia, and attendance at Jewish events introduce correlation, making overlaps less improbable than pure randomness suggests).
Probability of being at the October 7 Nova festival site during the attack:
Approximate attendees: ~4,000
World population: ~8 billion
P(Nova) ≈ 4,000 / 8,000,000,000 = 5 × 10-7 (or about 1 in 2 million)
Probability of being at the 2025 Bondi Beach Hanukkah event:
Attendees: ~1,000
P(Bondi) ≈ 1,000 / 8,000,000,000 = 1.25 × 10-7 (or about 1 in 8 million)
Combined probability for one random person (assuming independent events):
P(both) = P(Nova) × P(Bondi) ≈ (5 × 10-7) × (1.25 × 10-7) = 6.25 × 10-14
This is roughly 1 in 16 trillion.
>one in 16 trillion goyim
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>>524173694
>what are the odds
100% when you know in advance
>>
It's like that slope who was at both Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And he survived because they ran out of Zyklon B both times, or something.
>>
>>524173694
>What are the odds?
1 in 4. 50/50 he's at Nova. 50/50 he's at Bondi. You can either be at a place, or you can not be there.
>>
he likely knew it was going to happen and was given details on it all, so he could survive it. mossad used indians to attack iran (they were suicide missions too, so indians are fine with dying for israel).
>>
what was he doing at a rave on oct 7? raping kids
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>>524173957
probably checking foreskins
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>>524173694
How many holocaust survivors were present at both the Nova festival and the Bondi beach bash?
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>>524174438
according to grok
>Zero
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>>524173694
>P(A+B) = P(A) * P(B)
this relation only applies when the two probabilities are completely independent of each other. but, as you admitted in your post:
>though in reality, factors like Jewish community ties, relocation from Israel to Australia, and attendance at Jewish events introduce correlation, making overlaps less improbable than pure randomness suggests
this doesn't just make overlaps less improbable -- it totally invalidates the statistical method you're using, which fundamentally relies on statistical independence of the 2 events
you owned yourself
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>>524174688
its not my admission its grok which is itself a jew thing. im not any good with numbers
>checked btw
>>
>>524173694
Jews are very well known for having terrible luck though, what were the odds of six million being murdered in the holocaust you racist cunt?



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