Anonymous (ID: s5Wdal5s)
China's EUV is actually a Chin(...) 12/25/25(Thu)17:06:33 No.524342652

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China's EUV is actually a Chinese L Anonymous (ID: s5Wdal5s) 12/25/25(Thu)17:06:33 No.524342652

New Zeihan just dropped. Firstly, he says that Reuters article is straight up CCP propaganda, it's 100% fake, just another chinese psyop. 2ndly, even if it was true, it doesn't actually mean anything. It was directly reversed engineered and cobbled together via old ASML EUV parts, China didn't actually make anything themselves, they just glued a bunch of old ASML EUV parts together into a barely functional machine. They can't actually make any of the high tech parts themselves. They are still decades away from mass production of true EUV.

Let's look at the timeline here. As Zeihan states, it will be 2030 before they can produce a single chip from it. A super shitty chip with lots of defects and horrible yields as the EUV is a secondhand piece of shit, so it's not going to viable even for small scale production. It will take another decade after 2030 to improve the EUV machine until it has the performance of ASML's current EUV machines and and can actually fab 3nm nodes at a decent yield and performance.

And modern fabs needs like dozens of EUV machines per fabs for mass production, with hundreds of fabs needed to produce enough semiconductors for China's needs . Even with a truly viable EUV machine, China will need to build up the supply chain to mass produce the EUV to the tune of dozens a month to catch up to ASML and TSMC's output. Which will take another 15-20 years to build up the the immense domestic EUV supply chain within China.

So add everything together and we're looking at another 30-40 years before China can mass produce 3nm chips in bulk. And of course, in the 2050-2060s, ASML will be on next gen lithography beyond even high NA-EUV and TSMC/Intel/Samsung will be on picometer nodes. China will still be decades behind. In fact Zeihan says that 7nm will be the last major node that they will ever fab, after all as Zeihan also notes, don't forget that China is headed towards total economical and demographic collapse by 2030 anyway.