>be Western economy, 1990s>end of history, baby>we figured it out - just offshore all the dirty stuff to China>keep the brainpower, the IP, the finance>Ricardo said this makes sense, Friedman proved it, Washington Consensus blessed it>Just-in-Time supply chains, no inventory, maximum efficiency>pure financial optimization, bro>strip out all redundancy, trust the market, trust globalization>30 years of this working pretty well desu>assume infinite materiality - any resource we need, just buy it, no problem>outsource mining, smelting, refining to the lowest bidder>we're the thinkers, they're the doers>this is peak rationalism, peak efficiency>the geography of power? doesn't matter>supply shocks? doesn't matter>enemies? lmao nobody enemies anymore>it's just trade and capital flows now>fast forward to late 2025>suddenly realize: that era is completely over>matter is no longer abundant>the dirty work we shipped away? turns out it was actually *important*>our domestic industrial base is completely hollowed out>we got so good at being smart we forgot how to actually *make* anything>turns out you can't fight a war, or survive a crisis, on financial engineering and IP rights alone>the real bottleneck isn't credit anymore>it's physical: copper, lithium, rare earths, semiconductors>and we can't actually process any of it ourselves>we gutted our midstream capacity three decades ago>remember that thing called sovereignty? probably should've kept that>instead we optimized for quarterly earnings and shareholder value>now we're realizing that was maybe not the move>the West controls the upstream geology - we own the mines>China controls the midstream - they do all the smelting, refining, processing>China has the manufacturing>China has the skilled labor>China has the institutional knowledge of how to actually *run* these operations>China has the supply chains>we have... contracts? and hope?>mfw I realize we're just a quarry for Beijing
>>525772849>the richest deposits in the world mean nothing if you can't turn rock into metal>that's not even new, btw>1914: Britain owns the world's best zinc mines in Australia>but the actual smelting capacity? German cartel controls it>suddenly it's WWI and Britain is in a panic>they have ore but no way to turn it into the brass for ammunition>had to frantically build smelters in the middle of a total war>cost them time, cost them lives, cost them efficiency>medieval England: same thing but wool>we make the best wool in the world>but we ship it all to Flanders and Italy to be woven>the foreign powers are capturing all the value-added>the Crown finally wakes up>starts forcing reshoring of processing capacity>passes laws, bans exports of raw wool>suddenly English textiles become a thing>that becomes the foundation for the Industrial Revolution itself>the lesson: processing, not mining, is where the actual wealth and power lives>and we forgot this lesson>we thought we were being clever by outsourcing>turns out we were just disarming ourselves>the Washington Consensus was a slow-motion strategic surrender disguised as rational policy>and we're only now noticing the knife is in our back>mfw a think tank essay explains why my country's industrial capacity is mid-2000s Iraq tier>no cap this is actually a pretty important realization>we need to rebuild the midstream>we need domestic processing capacity for the stuff we mine>we need to own the actual transformation of matter into useful forms>but yeah, good luck with that>30 years of efficient outsourcing, meet 30 years of frantic rebuilding>turns out economics is not just spreadsheets and comparative advantage>turns out geography, power, and physical security still matter>who knew>probably historians, strategists, and people who actually studied the past>but they were boring so we ignored them>now we're the ones who are gonna have a bad time
>>525772865>the feedstock paradox: you don't actually own resources just because you have the mine>sounds simple but the West completely missed this>having a lithium deposit in Australia doesn't mean you *own* the lithium>it means you own the right to dig up rock>the actual ownership game includes:>>who has the offtake contracts>>who owns the company that runs the mine>>where the processing happens>>who controls the refining>lose any one of those links and you're just a quarry>the asymmetry is brutal:>we control maybe 60-70% of the world's raw ore deposits>China controls maybe 70-80% of the midstream processing capacity>and we can't do anything with our ore without going through China>they can do way less without our ore but have multiple sources>we have Arizona, Chile, Australia>they have Africa, Southeast Asia, and internal reserves>but the actual conversion happens in Ningxia, Ganzhou, Panzhihua>it's like being the world's best chef but someone else owns the kitchen and all the cooking equipment>and they're starting to raise the rent>historical parallels are actually kind of darkly funny>1914, Britain, World War I>they're fighting the Central Powers>they *nominally* control the world's richest zinc deposits>Broken Hill, Australia - best zinc ore on earth>problem: the smelting? German cartel owns it>Metallgesellschaft and friends control the actual production>Britain has ore but literally cannot turn it into ammunition>they can't make brass, can't make munitions, stuck>it's the middle of total war and they're frantically trying to build smelters>improvising, failing, losing time, losing lives>all because they thought owning the ore was enough>medieval England had the same problem but with wool>English wool was the best quality in the world, no contest>literally the foundation of wealth>but the English crown was shipping almost all of it raw to Flanders and Italy
>>525773061>getting paid for raw material prices>meanwhile Flemish and Italian cloth merchants were making the actual profit>the English were the hinterland, the resource colony, for other powers>the crown eventually realized this was completely backwards>passed laws, banned raw wool exports, forced domestic processing>suddenly the English became weavers too>that reshoring of textile processing? that becomes the foundation for the entire Industrial Revolution>that's how you get from medieval agrarian kingdom to industrial superpower>the lesson that took 900 years to learn: *processing is the seat of power, not mining*>yet we somehow un-learned it in 30 years>turns out David Ricardo's comparative advantage theory is great if you're at peace>turns out it's completely catastrophic if you're in competition with a power that doesn't believe in the same game>Ricardo assumes:>>free trade never stops>>supply chains never break>>there are no enemies>>capital flows smoothly everywhere>>resources are abundant>all of those assumptions are false>at least one of them is false *today*, in January 2026>probably all of them are false by January 2027>so we optimized our entire economy for a world that doesn't exist>and the world we're actually in is the one we should have been preparing for>the return of matter>the return of geography>the return of power politics>the return of the idea that you can have enemies>and enemies don't sell you things>or sell you things at prices you can afford>or sell you things at all>we've spent 30 years assuming infinite materiality>turns out materiality is finite>turns out it's actually kind of scarce>turns out the countries with the smelters win>and we have the mines>and the enemies have the smelters>mfw this was all preventable with basic history knowledge>mfw the Washington Consensus looked at the Wool Sack Blueprint and the Zinc Trap>and decided: no, we're special, we're smarter than that
>>525773189>we'll just offshore everything and keep the thinking>the thinking will be enough>spoiler: the thinking wasn't enough>you need the smelters too>you need the forges>you need the people who know how to run them>you need the supply chains>you need the redundancy>you need the resilience>turns out just-in-time is terrible when the supply breaks>turns out efficiency is not the same as security>turns out 30 years is a long time to gut an industrial base>and 30 years is not nearly enough time to build it back>especially when nobody's been training people how to do this work>especially when all the old metallurgists are retired or dead>especially when nobody told the young people to become smelter operators>instead we told them to become coders and finance bros>now we have a LOT of coders and finance bros>and very few people who know how to smelt copper>or separate rare earths>or run a titanium sponge plant>or operate a uranium enrichment facility>we have spreadsheets>we have PowerPoints>we have quarterly earnings reports>what we don't have is the ability to turn rock into metal at scale>that's a problem when you need to turn rock into metal>and you need to do it, like, yesterday
>>525772849I ain't reading all thatI'm happy for you thoOr sorry that happened
>>525772849Land of CEOs are sending their best. Cheap golems are what we got
Very insightful post, but literally no one on nu/pol/ is smart enough to read and appreciate your content.nu/pol/ is sadly full of islam and islamic terror apologists.
Finally a high iq thread.Arigato Japanon
wow it's both a chatgpjeet and vpnjeet thread at the same time
>>525772849We need to start making ritual sacrifices of poor people and immigrants to appease the GDP gods
>>525774994Except the content is actually worthwhile reading for. But can your nigger tier attention span keep going on reading that?
>>525772849>>525772865>>525773061>>525773189>>525773240TLDR: Greed overrides rationale. Tale old as time.
