Fresh off of the $30 million market that decided that the US really did have operations in Mexico fighting cartels, a new fraud has just hit.This time, it’s been decided that US officials have met with Iranian officials, in person, for political discussion.Here are the rules for that market:>This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.>Official diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy on behalf of their government. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.>The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, meetings through a third-party relaying messages (not including translators), or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present and interacting with each other will not count.>The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This shit is going to be shut down one day, and it should be.
Additional Context added to the review:>A consensus of credible reporting indicates that government representatives of the United States and Iran held a direct, in-person diplomatic meeting in Oman on February 6, 2026. (See: https://www.axios.com/2026/02/06/iran-us-nuclear-talks-oman & https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/nuclear-talks-said-to-include-in-person-meeting-between-trumps-aides-and-iran-fm/)So there are two (2) sources that are cited as “a consensus.” The Axios article cites Barak Ravid as its source. The Time of Israel cites a report from Channel 12 (also Israeli). The Channel 12 origin is from… Barak Ravid. So a single persons opinion, echoed over a total of two (2) platforms, is considered a consensus. It’s all incredibly Jewish.
>>528011287It was shut down in the US four years ago. They want to come back, but they don’t want to be regulated. Kalshi doesn’t have any of these issues. Presumably, Polymarket knows about these obvious fraud cases and is either benefitting from them or simply doesn’t care. I’d guess it’s the former, because the US is a huge market.
>website has repeatedly scammed gamblers, is designed to favor the House, everyone knows this>retards keep getting scammed anyway
>>528011607What “house?” What do you even mean?
>>5280116071pbtidThere is no “house.” Polymarket (or any other prediction market) isn’t taking betts, setting odds, or assigning handicaps. They make money from transactions, not because one side lost. The fraud is perpetuated by users, not Polymarket.
>>528012386Stupid fucking goy
Everyomne invested in these positions haven't they lost a fortune on bitcoin's decline?
>>528012577What do you mean? Am I wrong somehow? >>528012780What do shitcoins have to do with prediction markets?
>>528013023Are you really so naive you think some pajeet coded site is beyond reproach and doesn't fudge their odds or skim some money off the pot? You really believe there isn't employees in one room checking the news for updates, then yelling to the guys in the other room to place bets before the odds swing?
>>528013490You don’t know how prediction markets work yet you have an opinion on them anyway, and that’s funny to me.
>>528011209prediction markets being legal is fucking crazy lol. "barron bet big on no" "k dad"
>>528011209If this is so easily spotted as a fraud, why not load up on the obvious safe bet? Easy money.
>>528011209>Brief greetingsThey did shake hands, so..
>>528013786Because you never know which markets will be defrauded. Look at last weeks fraud. Both government officially agreed that the U.S. wouldn’t conduct operations against the cartels within Mexico. That was the safe position. It was trending around 90% for days. No one could see this particular market being cheated by UMA whales. Large holders buy marginal amounts of long shot contracts and look for any kind of news story in their favor. They then use that news to push a dispute, and eventually a vote. The holders then vote in their favor. This system is unique to Polymarket. >>528013731Sure, but a lot of these markets are pretty small. Especially the ones that would be easily defrauded, like Trump mentioning Greenland at the State of the Union address.
>>528014411So… what? Use your words like an adult or don’t take part in the conversation.The rules solution state that brief creating do not count.
>>528014488So what about the multitude of people who voted no? They just get fucked? Why would anyone keep betting after having that happen to them. I'd be livid.
>>528014610Yeah, that’s how prediction markets work. Bets are bought kind of like stocks. The prices are set based on how many positions are sold. If 90% of those buying in took Yes positions, the prices are set at $0.90 per contract. When the market is resolved, the winning contracts are worth $1.00, and the losing ones $0. And contracts can be sold before they resolve.
>>528014488Is it defrauding or actual long shots? How many of these long shots go unrealized? Is there extremely unusual volume on a few specific ones that switch at the very last moment? Because longshots occasionally being realized alone isn't sufficient evidence of fraud. However these indicators would still be there and would mean capitalizing on them would be extremely easy.
>>528015277But that doesn't answer my question. If it's so easy to rig then who would ever be stupid enough to play? They straight up lost money they should have won. Heads would be rolling if I dropped a substantial amount on it and something like that happened.
>>528013671peak retarded golem, never change gringoyim lmao
>>528013490You sound like a total midwit who's got no clue how a smart contract, let alone a prediction market works.
>>528011209whale bots are set up for every market. take crypto for example; bots are watching daily, 4hr, 1hr, 15min markets and drive price once way for each then in the last minute drive it the opposite way just enough to end up on other side even if by few dollars
>>528015388>Because longshots occasionally being realized alone isn't sufficient evidence of fraud.Correct, and that’s not the issue. $UMA whales voting in a new reality is the issue. It doesn’t happen often, but $30 million is news worthy.
>>528015526>gringoyim
>>528015611Another half wit who doesn't understand how a prediction market works. You all retards deserve to lose your money.
>>528011287>This shit is going to be shut down one day, and it should be.like the stock market?this last week had 20% swings down and up in 2 daysthe US is a god damn joke
>>528013671>You don’t know how prediction markets work yet you have an opinion on them anyway,A prediction is an opinion you dumb nigger.
>>528015843The same people betting on the stock market call gold and silver stackers crazy, too.
>>528015843The stockmarket is a giant scam too, yes. Been that way for a while. The whole thing ought to be knocked down but the rot has replaced the wood, there's no structure left.
>>528015843>>528016150They’re all gambling. The big difference is that prediction markets are easier for the wealthy to defraud, but are often more predictable in the absence of fraud.
>>528015842do explain it, kind sir
>>528016150>>528016286>>528016225>>528016286every time there's a selloff, the money printer saves it...the only question is what day... tmw? 2 days out? 4 days out? 2 weeks? and it pumps over night, so i usually miss it.... this faggot country is so god damned corrupt
>>528011209>Retard discovers gambling is fake, degenerate and gayWow anon I’m so proud of you.
>>528015477>If it's so easy to rig then who would ever be stupid enough to play?Those stupid enough
