Been thinking about a historical parallel.In the 1930s the U.S. started squeezing Japan economically. Trade restrictions, scrap metal bans, then the big one: the oil embargo in 1941. Japan imported most of its oil from the U.S., so when that got cut off it basically put their entire military and industry on a timer.Japan’s leadership concluded they either accept strategic decline or seize resources elsewhere. That’s what pushed them toward expansion into Southeast Asia and eventually the Pacific war.Fast forward to today and you can see a somewhat similar pressure dynamic forming around China. China imports a huge amount of its energy, especially oil from places like Iran and Venezuela. Both of those countries have been under heavy U.S. sanctions for years.At the same time the U.S. is building security alliances in the Indo-Pacific, increasing naval presence, and backing Taiwan militarily.If you look at it structurally:>major power dependent on imported energy> economic pressure on its suppliers>military encirclement perception> rising flashpoint over TaiwanHistorically when states feel strategically cornered, they sometimes take bigger risks rather than accept decline.Not saying history will repeat exactly, but the 1930s Japan situation shows how economic containment can escalate into military confrontation if leadership believes time is running out.
china gets out of this world quantities of oil and gas by land from Russia so no strangulation is possible. It has also a rail link to iran and China imports oil through that.
>>530117308China gets resources from Australia. If America bannned Australia from selling to China we'd probably cave but it would create a hell of a lot of friction.
>>530117475copehttps://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2025/09/russia-china-gas-deals?lang=en
>>530117308>Muttniggerstan is isolating the island nation China>reality detached Amerimutt ChatGPT bot thread #2384723
>>530117308The Iranians have a rail link to China already, it has been working for years and does carry oil and petrochemicals, they want to improve it though. The chokepoint is for Chinese goods exiting China under US sanction in the future, I'm not sure how well that would go for the Yanks in reality.
>>530117308You're 100% rightHowever China has Russia and Central Asia right behind it who can supply them. They will have to defend their supply lines from attacks from the air, space, long range missiles and special forces.
>>530119073Americans have already been targeting all of this railIt isn't being reported by legacy media at all
>>530119073country roooad, take me hooome
>>530117308Its more like spanish war.
>>530117308The difference there is that China can actually rekt US forces all across SEA pretty easily.Furthermore: the US will suffer more from a trade embargo from China than vice versa, especially since their blockade will fail within weeks (due to ships on the bottom of the sea).Then they can decide between having the fuck nuked out of them or getting on their knees.Did I mention US becoming isolated from Taiwan chip production?
>>530117308yes its similar but usa also now has a debt crisis and is the biggest oil producer so they benefit inmensly by controlling world supply to all countries for economic benefit more than geopolitical rivalry. china also is heavily invested in reneuables and is trying realyl hard to limit oil dependancy
>>530117806Retard China gets half their oil and gas from Russia, siberia 2 is planned for the 2030's
>>530118153>memeflagOP is a bong flag
Imagine thinking China is the 1930s Japan in this scenario.Japan is the one getting fleeced for $550B by Trump while China blacklists their tech firms and cuts off their dual-use supply chains. Hormuz is closed, 90% of their oil is cut off, and suddenly you don't hear a peep about "Taiwan contingencies" anymore.The irony is delicious. Japan is the one actually being choked out, and we all know what they do when they get desperate.
>>530117308Huge difference between the US refusing to sell oil to Japan and the US interdicting oil shipments to China. The latter is a widely recognized act of war.
>>530117308>the U.S. started squeezing Japan economicallyBecause Japan was acting like a retard.
So Japan is England and China is Germany?
>>530117308>piss off the Japanese into attacking you>piss off 1.5 billion Chinese who produce 80% of all industry in earth and have nukes into attacking youThose are not the same thingAmerica is FA and is gonna FO
>>530119073I don't think you retards understand just how much oil a tanker carries.The most common type of tanker carries around 2 million barrels of oil, and it takes a tanker about 20 days to deliver that oil.A single rail carriage can hold about 700 barrels of oil. It would take 2857 of them to carry as much as one container ship. A single train can carrfy about as much as 50,000 barrels of oil. It takes the train 14 days to make this journey from Iran to China.Are you seeing the difference now?A single tanker can supply China with about 100,000 barrels of oil a day.A train can supply it with 3571 barrels a day.
>>530117308They'll just get more from Central Asia and Russia but you're correct that the US is trying to limit their sea imports. Pipelines may be vulnerable to missile strikes, I don't know how easily they can be defended or how quickly they can be repaired?
>>530123134>A trainWhat about a pipeline?
>>530123278There is no such pipeline from Iran to China.
This is the view most analysts seem to hold. The only thing holding China back is that they can't wage war against the US without oil, they can't defend their shipping, they can't beat the US navy in open water. But that's not such an insurmountable obstacle from China. China needs only lame the US navy, almost certainly with h416 and tactical nukes, for the "midway" of ww3 to be a draw. China's absolute priority is defending their east coast, and the Chinese would gladly lose their own navy in the process.And while China can't defend their shipping, Chinese shipping is everyone's shipping, if the US navy couldn't sail in force through SEA, middle powers may well defend Chinese shipping from acts of piracy and sabotage.And while the Chinese can't win a war without oil, they don't need to "win", they'd take a draw any day of the week and cement their control over Asia, evicting US forces. So Iran is obviously an attack on Chinese oil, but perhaps less obviously, it's an attack by the US on middle powers, many of whom are American allies, which might not accept Americans agenda, their right to shut down global oil. America is really waiting to see how many of their allies will still support them in an unprovoked attack on global oil
stop saying The US, there is no USA, they are officially dead, killed by a parasitic infection gutted from the inside out over the past century RIP colonel cheeseburger
>>530117806>copethe only one coping here is you tard
>>530123134Might want to check those numbersModern oil trains carry 100k barrelsBig Tankers carry millions of barrels
>>530119474>Americans have already been targeting all of this rail>It isn't being reported by legacy media at allGot a source for this?
>>530123692No, those numbers are accurate. Most trains can only carry around 50,000 barrels of oil. Some can carry more, but as a result they also move slower.You can get 50,000 barrels in 14 days, or you can get 80,000 in 21 days.Also the largest tankers can carry around 3 million barrels of oil, but the most common type carry about 2 million.
>>530123464Again, you keep repeating this moronic take without recognizing the glaring fact:>China directly borders RussiaRussia produces 11 million barrels of oil a day. Iran only 4.5 million. China itself produces 4 million.This idea of yours that China's situation is in any way similar to Japan's in WW2 is fucking laughable. You're a dumbass playing armchair general.
>>530123335You lack imagination. I bet the Chinese could lay 100km of pipeline a day.
>>530117475They can just have a bunch of ukies sabotage Russian oil exports, like they've been doing to some extent.
>>530117308China has mass produced an energy infrastructure greater than our own in the past decade. I don't think this tactic will work in the same way. They wouldn't have to choose between military and industry.
>>530124066Problem is, between Iran and China it's all fucking mountains. Gonna take years and years to get any sort of pipeline built.
>>530124214>Gonna take years and yearsThis aint California, bucko.
>>530124285It it would only take China a month to build this mythical pipeline, then why haven't they already done it?
>>530124214>>530123837And Tel Aviv will be reduced to rubble by the time you manage to clip off that extra 20% of oil China gets from Iran, IF you even manage that, moron.You fucked up.
>>530124066Sure, but only if they start treating their workforce like the USSR treated its gulag prisoners.
>>530123134Yeah but it's something, and for Iran it's more important what's coming from China, medicine electronics machinery and parts.
>>530124214Does Russia not exist?
>>530124214Pipelines can and do cross mountains. The problem is it's AfghanistanThis is why CIA has been agitating Uyghurs
Is it really that hard to just run China’s industrial and trade data through an AI? If you don’t trust Chinese sources, fine—use Western ones and cross-check across multiple models. As entities driven strictly by data, almost every AI is going to side with China’s reality. In fact, if you find an AI that’s still trying to downplay Chinese industrial capacity at a data level, you might as well stop using it. It’s clearly broken or ideologically lobotomized
>>530117308China is outbuilding USA in the seas by a factor of 100, US bases won't actually restrict Chinese trade unless they are shooting at their ships (which they are not) and if they don't start shooting in the next couple of years Chinese navy will outnumber the americans by so much that you will be posting about Chinese containing the americans instead.
>>530125483That's why America will attack before they lose the advantageAnd remember that the US also has the Japanese, Korean, Australian and Taiwanese navies on their side. Maybe India too.
>>530125749so once japan, korea, taiwan regain sovereignty and return back to asia, asia will have like 1000000x shipping capacity versus america
>>530117308I was thinking along similar lines. China is being backed into a corner
>>530117308Iran and Venezuela have been less than 15% of China's oil supply.The reason China has been buying oil from Iran and Venezuela is not because China must buy oil from these countries, but because China is the only country willing to buy oil from these countries, and thus China gets a discount for doing so.The US could institute a blockade of China tomorrow, using submarines. Nothing had changed or is changing in that regard.
