Once we have control of the strait this is all over. Iran won’t have any cards left to play.
two more weeks
>>531436703Irans gulf coastline is something like 800 miles and their drone have something 1000 mile range so the US would have to occupy at least 800000 miles worth of territory to prevent attacks on tankers. They could also lay waste to all oil and gas infrastructure in the gulf if it looks like they are losing their ability to keep the strait closed making opening it a moot point.
>>531436703its true, whenever they negotiate with iran its in bad faith. i dont know why iran even engages
>>531436703>weYou won't do shit pussy
People should really familiarize themselves with the Gallipoli campaign in WW1. This isn't gonna go well.
>>531437466>People should familiarize themselves with the Shartfart offensive of 67 BC.>[reddit space]>*gulp* This isn’t going to go well…
>>531436703>everyone call it a war >still no war declared why
Pool's closed
>>531437225Iran doesn't negotiate in good faith either. When asked about then stopping the funding of their axis of resistance during the last talks, they said "that is not for discussion". They don't want peace, they want to own the world.
>>531436703>control over the straightthe area a missle or drone can be launched from to attack a slow moving oil transport in the straight is huge. Control of the straight means control of the Iranian landmass proper. Thats boots on the ground full invasion urban plus mountain warfare. They are a 90 million person country with a 2/3 of a million standing army fighting to the death for the civilization.What the fuck reinforcements do you think are going to help?
>>531436703I wonder for how much longer oil traders are going to allow themselves to be duped by this shit. The US navy refuses to go anywhere near the strait because of the danger, yet some people are pretending that the strait is going to be secured in two more weeks.
>>531436703>just buying time for reinforcementsI'm having 2022 flashbacks lmao
>>531437799Imagine having an entire country live rent-free in your head for almost 50 yearsYou lost, kike. Ukraine lost. Total Persian Victory
>>531437977Everyone Israel and America included uses terrorists and other small groups in the middle east as proxies. Stopping should not be up for discussion because even in the miracle situation where the US would stop, Israel would never.Thats not bad faith its honesty.
>>531437884what do you care? you need to know so you can write it down in your gay little notebook?
>>531437977Of course those are not up for discussion. Support for Hezbollah and Ansar Allah are key aspects of Iran's deterrence against the US and Israel. Iraqi militias are key to make sure Iraq doesn't become a launch pad for attacks on Iran.
>>531438130absolutely fucking retarded
>>531438361>waaaaah why don't you care about muh ukraine waaaaaahKill yourself kike
>>531438030Iran has started letting people through for a fee and if they are working with china instead of the US. Another month and all oil will be passing through with a fee attacked to each ship for the Iranians. Oil is going to flow but get sanctioned. The markets will jump at this. A relatively small predictable fee would be easily acceptable to them.Im going to figure out the average size and value of these shipments I bet the fee would be like 1-2%. Give me a sec.
>>531438175Iran is full of inbred shitty Muslims. The main reason they speak up and cause problems is because by nature, Muslims prefer living in the bombed-out ruins of their dusty hellholes.
>>531438702HereOil Tanker Transit Fee Scenario SheetInputs (Editable)Variable Value NotesOil Price ($/barrel) 104 Change this to simulate market conditionsTransit Fee ($) 2,000,000 فرضed safe passage feeVLCC Capacity (barrels) 2,000,000 Very Large Crude CarrierSuezmax Capacity (barrels) 1,000,000 Mid-size tankerAframax Capacity (barrels) 700,000 Smaller tankerWeighted Avg Capacity (barrels) 1,630,000 From earlier calculationBase Scenario (at $104/barrel)Ship Type Cargo (barrels) Cargo Value ($) Fee ($) Fee % of Cargo ValueVLCC 2,000,000 208,000,000 2,000,000 0.96%Suezmax 1,000,000 104,000,000 2,000,000 1.92%Aframax 700,000 72,800,000 2,000,000 2.75%Weighted Avg 1,630,000 169,520,000 2,000,000 1.18%Sensitivity Analysis (Oil Price Variation)Oil Price ($/bbl) Avg Cargo Value ($) Fee % (Avg Ship)90 146,700,000 1.36%100 163,000,000 1.23%104 169,520,000 1.18%110 179,300,000 1.12%120 195,600,000 1.02%Variance / Range (Based on Ship Size)Metric Barrels Value @ $104 Fee %Low (Aframax) 700,000 72,800,000 2.75%Mean 1,630,000 169,520,000 1.18%High (VLCC) 2,000,000 208,000,000 0.96%Std Dev (~0.53M bbl) 530,000 ~55,000,000 —Key Takeaways (Strategic Insight)The fee is economically trivial for VLCCs (<1%), meaning they will almost certainly pay it without hesitation.It becomes noticeable for mid-sized ships (~2%), but still viable.It is material for smaller ships (~2.5–3%), potentially affecting routing decisions or freight rates.The primary driver of variance is ship class, not randomness — tanker sizes are standardized.Oil price changes affect percentages, but not dramatically—the fee remains roughly 1–1.5% of cargo value in most realistic conditions.The fee is nothing to the oil producers and users. They would pay this in a second. The problem is that gives Iran a recognized leverage over the strait. The US might accept this in a vacuum. Yes it is something of a loss. cont.
>>531438625what the fuck are you even talking about nigger?
>>531438901The problem is the inbred shitty Israelis keep starting shit they cant finish on their own.
>>531439079You lost, faggot. Go cry like a bitch somewhere else.
>>531439129kek alright man keep on keeping on
>>531439058But it turns Iran into a partner who has a incentive to work together without violence keeping the strait open. In a vacuum this could work for the US who could let this happen and then turn Iran into a partner over the long term pulling them away from China. The problem is Israel who would have to accept another stable country in the middle east which they have not been able to currently. Israel has spent alot of good will and their reputation recently I am not sure they can back down.As for the smaller ships where the fee creeps up to 2% or higher. Iran can just set the fee to the size of the cargo giving the smaller ships a proportional break.
>>531436703Going to be funny when dozens of ships sink
>>531436703Yellow press already calling it a war. Yellow press already throwing out hypothetical scenarios. Yellow press already championing America "losing." Typical.
>>531437225Didn't Iran execute like 36,000 protesters? Talk about bad faith!
>>531436703Would take at absolute minimum 30k troops to hold just the Iran litoral which still doesn't eliminate the threat.
