Things I've learned over the past two days:>USAF is for the most part able to fly anywhere over Iran, even with slow vulnerable bulky aircraft>Iranian air defenses are almost non-existent, relying mostly on short-range weapons against aircraft that happen to pass by>IRGC ground organization is beyond terrible (US successfully extracted two downed pilots)>Russia/China have not supplied any MANPADS, drones or ATGM's whatsoever (worst ally award)>Iranian ground forces and militia are poorly equipped (again showcasing the lack of supplies from Russia etc.)>Israel's operation against Hezbollah is going poorly>Hezbollah is well-equipped due to Russian Kornet ATGM's and drones originally given to Assad finding their way into Hezbollah hands>Israeli interceptor stockpiles have been severely diminished, requiring selective targeting>Gulf country air defense missile stockpiles are fully depleted>Iranian missile bases are still operating and launching missiles daily despite massive bombardments>US offensive missile stockpiles have been severely depleted (particularly JASSM's), down to ~20% as per Bloomberg and NYTI think Trump (Reps) are on track to suffer a historic defeat at the polls, the war is extremely unpopular and expensive at a time when most people are struggling financially. The 1.5 trillion budget thing just by itself is enough to bring about a landslide at the polls. The only way Iran survives this is if they can hold out until the midterms.
didn't read, today or tomorrow mutt soldiers already dead
>>532424755iraq was also unpopular and bush won a second term, if trump achieves regime change in iran, reps will win the midterms ez
>>532424755this is a good analysisthe minor damage at american bases throughout the region is sensational, but is superficial. reminds me of the rockets palestinians fired for decades. didn't stop them from getting annihilated
>>532424755I just hope the midterms are fucked up for trump and the dems obstruct his every bullshit move for the next 2 yeara
>>532424755Iran doesn't need to survive; it's a huge country with a population of nearly 100 million... ISRAEL AND ALL THESE ARAB TRAITOR-EMIRS, who sold out for dollars long ago, NEED TO SURVIVE... QATAR, THE UAE, SAUDI ARABIA...will soon cease to exist as countries...The new power – IRAN, A RESTORED IRAQ, YEMEN...these are the ones who will govern the future of the region.Türkiye will be able to join the common pie only if it stops TAKING AN "ACTIVE PASSIVE" POSITION and finally CHOOSE AN ALLY...forever.
>>532424923>if trump achieves regime change in iranretard
>>532424755>>USAF is for the most part able to fly anywhere over Iran, even with slow vulnerable bulky aircraft>>Iranian air defenses are almost non-existent, relying mostly on short-range weapons against aircraft that happen to pass byno. what the last two days show you is that second month into this war americans have failed to achieve air superiority against a country with no functional air force. usaf stockpile of standoff precision weapons is running out, forcing them to take reckless operations deep within enemy airspace to drop jdam bombs. which in turn allows iranians to conduct ambushes and take out multiple american aircraft in a day. this is not a sustainable situation for usaf, and can get only worse for them over time.>>IRGC ground organization is beyond terrible (US successfully extracted two downed pilots)the effort to capture downed pilots was conducted by local basij, not by irgc. >>Russia/China have not supplied any MANPADS, drones or ATGM's whatsoever (worst ally award)hezbollah has fiber optic drones now, and is using them to great effect. if russia didn't give it to them then i reckon they provided to them by the allah. surely he can give some to iran, too.
>anywhere over IranIt was in Khuzestan (check it out), just across the border with Iraq, and they lost several aircraft doing this.
>>532424755>Iranian air defenses are almost non-existentAlready in your second point you are wrong because of the aircraft casualties.Post discarded, start again.
>>532432000IRL you simply can’t supress ALL air defenses. It’s just physically impossible. Modern AD is usually very mobile and quick to redeploy, often using LPI radars and passive sensors even. It’s what happened to Russians in Ukraine. They fired huge amount of SEAD missiles at the start with very limited results. They tried to fly low then, and Ukrainians shot them down using stuff like Strela-10. In the end they were forced back, and now almost exclusively rely on stand-off weapons. Problem for USA is their PGM stock is dwindling very fast.
Ukraine War demonstrated the folly of chasing silver bullets. What actually matters is sustainability, simplicity of use, communications, adequate surveillance, and NUMBERS. Better is the enemy of good enough. What’s ironic is that Soviet military establishment anticipated this by 80’s and developed theories to cope but much of it wasn’t implemented as the country itself was collapsing.
>i am forgotten
