The interest rates on these government bonds are shockingly high, and with the U.S. government’s $40 trillion debt, the annual interest payments alone exceed $1 trillion.It sounds like the U.S. stock market is about to crash in the coming months.
>>543270744>location: china>shit nobody cares aboutkek at goyim cattle
>>543270744when do you sell your stockslop and buy bonds? 10%?
>>543270954I've always wondered why the first person to join a thread is always the first to write, >“I don't care!”It sounds like you care a lot,you just don't want to say it outright.
>>543270954It's kind of a big deal
>>543270744Ok Pajeet
Daily reminder that if you see a Chinese flag on pol that person is almost definitely some type of glownigger.
>>543271125>>543270744Nothingburger actually, they sold off many treasuries all week due to the S&P report>S&P Global’s preliminary September survey showed activity across manufacturing and services expanding at the fastest pace in more than five years. Its composite index rose to 58.4 from 56.0 in August. The manufacturing index jumped to 57.0 from 53.9, well above expectations of 53.6, while the services index reached 58.7. New orders and hiring strengthened. S&P Global said the September readings were consistent with annualized growth of around five percent for the month and four percent for the third quarter. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for the quarter stood at 5.1 percent before today’s report.>"US business continues to boom, with output growing at the fastest rate for over five years in September,” S&P Global economists Chris Williamson said.
>>543270744The stock market is at ATH. America is winning. You lost, tranny
If a bond market man existed, I'd hope that he'd terrify and drive away the fiscal dominance man, the qualitative easing man (not quantitative), the yield curve control man, the ZIRP man and the inflate the debt away man. And I'd hope that the bond market man would high yields and that he would get them everywhere on earth.
>>543271569demand high yields*
keep President Turd for another 2 years and those bonds will not even cash in
>>543271426That's not real GDP, that's inflation. 100% of GDP growth since 2020 has literally just been inflation
>>543271426It gets better too, the fed surveys are surging>Factory activity in the central U.S. accelerated sharply in September, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City survey released Thursday. It was the latest in a series of reports pointing to an economy gathering momentum heading into the fourth quarter.Meanwhile my country is going down the tubes but if you're an Amerishart it's booming on real shit like mfg not jewish tricks
>>543271124They are retards.Their country is collapsing.Their women are prostituted by israelis.Their real estate is taken over by Blackrock.They haven't built a single piece of infrastructure in decades.Their children can barely read.Their best wager to remain the global hegemon is war and data centers.They are finished. They have nothing to them. When you see an american, you see someone without hope.We need China to create a 4chan of its own, so we can browse it.
Plan?Trusted.
>>543270744Is this bad news just for America, or for the rest of the world as well?
>>543271426>"US business continues to boom, with output growing at the fastest rate for over five years in September,”What I mean is, if he considers rising oil prices to be part of the “boom,” then the U.S. economy is indeed on the rise.It’s just that I don’t think this does the U.S. economy or ordinary people’s lives any good.
>>543271692>We need China to create a 4chan of its own, so we can browse it.We have our own Reddit,it's called Baidu Tieba.Some of the boards are full of the funniest idiots.https://tieba.baidu.com/f?dyTabStr=MTIsMCwzLDEsMiwxMyw3LDYsNSw5&fr=ala0&kw=%25C8%25F5%25D6%25C7&tpl=5
>>543271735The entire world is struggling with the same financial reality (except China, because chinese treasuries are gaining a lot of traction thanks to the demise of the West), but America is special due to the volume of debt they need to regularly roll over (that is 40+ trillion dollars that they need to refinance). And the fact America does not do fiscal policy anymore, they just expand the debt ceiling.The global struggle is simple:>during 2020 and 2021, a lot of 5 year debt was issued due to the mass histeria of the world thanks to a minor flu that barely killed anyone (Covid-19, you might remember). All of this debt is reaching maturity all at the same time, and debt auctions have been disastrous>Japan is selling a lot of long-term american debt to re-buy its own currency, which americans destroyed by picking up zero interest loans in Japan and investing it all in data centers (Japan-US carry trade)>due to inflation in America and the low interest rates of 2020-2021, plus a paradigm shift, pension funds are now 14% of the 30-50 years US debt (they used to be 70%). Americans now want to retire with 401k(s), which mostly buy stocks through their ETFs (like the S&P500)>the USA, once again, has 40 trillion dollars in debt, and every single year is a struggle to find enough leverage to refinance the debtA lot of debt is reaching maturity all at the same time all over the world. But America is especially vulnerable due to the fiscal fragility of it.
>>543270744Beseent failed trump and Elon
where does all this money go that they pay in interest to? decepticons? is there a gigantic hole they're literally just throwing money into?
>>543270744nothing stops this train, nothing
>>543271735It’s pretty bad news for the whole world. Think of the US Treasury as a global benchmark for borrowing. Most global finance is carried out using the USD and the US Treasury’s borrow rate usually the ‘floor’ of sorts. Any company or country looking to sell bonds will have a hard time doing so cheaper than the US because the US is still generally considered to be a ‘safe’ investment.
>>543272292>where does all this money go that they pay in interest to? decepticons?I’ve heard that most of the interest goes back to U.S. banks, which continue to use that money to make loans, allowing businesses to secure even more bank loans.As a result, there is now an increasing amount of maturing debt, and the U.S. government has no choice but to issue short-term debt to repay long-term debt.No one is willing to buy long-term bonds now because everyone believes the U.S. government won’t be able to pay them back, and issuing more short-term debt means the U.S. government has to pay even higher interest rates.It’s like constantly applying for new credit cards to pay off the interest on old ones.Until you can’t borrow any more money, and then you go bankrupt.Smart people will amass as much wealth as possible before that happens, and then run away.
>>543272292Foreign central banks, private banks, sometimes retail. It seems like money is being thrown into a black hole because they pay this debt by immediately buying it back. That means, loans are not getting paid, you are just refinancing the loan with higher interest. So all the money that actually leaks out of the deal is the interest. It used to be that people bought 30/50 years treasury for pensions, so the company would invest a hundred thousand dollars in these treasuries, which pay monthly coupons. These monthly coupons would go to the retired.The problem is that americans now opt for 401k(s), and there are 14 trillion dollars in the hand of these programs. Instead of buying treasuries, 401k(s) prefer to buy stocks and indexes (which are mostly tech stock from Amazon, Google, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, the magnifecent seven).
>>543272292Starts with J. Rhymes with ‘pew’.
>>543270744>U.S. stock market is about to crash in the coming monthsI have the most stable equity investment portfolio imaginable so I'm not concerned. It's $0. Hedge funds can't claim the same.
>>543270744>Two more weeks!I'm tired just do it already.
>>5432710037.5%That's the point at which even people holding real estate sell because the ideal return for commercial is 7.5% once bonds go over that every single long term investor starts buying them.
>>543272641>401kThe Great Depression 2.0 will make your retirement savings vanish overnight.Every smart person should withdraw all the money from their retirement accounts right now—even if it means taking a loss.Because once the Great Depression begins, you’ll be left with nothing.Why?A large number of private equity and venture capital firms are using funds from ordinary Americans’ retirement accounts to speculate in the stock market.Once the stock market starts to crash, it will be ordinary people who end up bearing all the losses.
>>543270744>bond yields spiking higher>'sounds like stocks are going to crash'checked, OP doesn't know or comprehend what the fuck he's even posting aboutNeither does a single 4chan user, ever in 20 years about global macroeconomics or finance.
>>543270744bussint got GAPED
>>543272964the stock market is held up by "hyperscalers" who are entirely reliant on borrowing trillions of dollars, the higher borrowing costs go the deeper they go into the red and the harder the stock market will fall with them
>>543272817literally no one can profit off stocks anymore except the corporate banks that literally print money. look at the 6 month plateau, absolutely unprecedented. and real estate has been unprofitable for years
>>543270744Treasurybros... Are we raped?
>>543273156yeah and look how that's goingThe first domino is crashing down, Oracle can't build their data center and their bonds are flushing. This is going to keep happening. It seems to be on purpose. How hard is it to add a billion or two to the bond sale to fund building a power plant for the facility?>>543272964retard
>>543272292Boomer pensions.Boomers enjoyed many government handouts but paid little taxes.The money they didn't pay in taxes they instead lend to the government which younger generations have to pay back to them plus interest.This is how younger generations get screwed over double while boomers live the easy life.
>>543272817Historically yes, but I’m not sure if that will continue to be the case. This is not the early 2000’s anymore. As we now approach 7.5% again (and beyond) we are doing it now with considerable more debt than we had back then. 7.5% interest on our future $50T in debt is $3.75T yearly just to service our debt payments, not actually paying any of it down. That’s 67% of the yearly revenue of the government leaving little left for all the other things the federal government pays for. I know this is sensationalist and gets thrown around a lot but once the US surpasses 7.5% bond rates I think the USD will firmly be in death spiral territory (if not already in one). Personally I would hold onto the real estate instead of trading it for USD.
>>543273465>The first domino is crashing down“高志凯,” an economist in China, predicts that the U.S. stock market will crash on July 1, 2027.By that time, the Federal Reserve may have raised interest rates three times.AI companies will no longer be able to borrow money, leaving a stock market crash as their only option.【高志凯:我有把握在今后十个月左右,美国人工智能发展泡沫会破灭,触发世界范围内的金融危机,没有一个国家会幸免】 https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV11AYJ6mEk4/?share_source=copy_web&vd_source=4b9826c5c92a10ac0fdaabaebf927151
>>543272964Every investment (even your credit card) compete with treasuries for money. And treasuries are a bottomless well of money because there are, I'll never tire of explaining this, 43 TRILLION DOLLARS in US debt. What the ABSOLUTE FUCK were you thinking. It was 8 trillion dollars not long ago.Any increase in the interest paid by the government inevitably leads to an increase in interest paid by mortgages, private titles (very used to finance the AI expansion), and debt altogether.You compete with government for money. That is the bottomline. And the US government is an apex predator of money.If money becomes too expensive in the USA, AI developers will begin to struggle because AI just this year demanded 1 trillion dollars in capital. Due to the shortage of money that began this month, per example, Oracle already cancelled some big projects, including the New Mexico super data center, alleging 'force majeure' (events out of its control forced them to cancel). Cancelling a data center also means that all the RAM and GPUs, labour, land, and infrastructure that were already allocated to it are now unsold. It becomes a problem for everybody. Frankly, anon, americans don't really understand how economy works because they used to be insulated from it due to the exorbitant privilege.>>543272833This has happened before, back in the 1970s. The entire market because strangely optimistic in some paper (currently, it is indexes), then half the money in the economy moves to it. Then these papers collapse, dragging the economy to a depression. Currently, it is ETFs. The entire gist of them is that ETFs succesfully convinced all americans that they are failure proof.The only way to knockdown the ETFs is if the AI sector (half the S&P500) goes underwater, which it perfectly can, if it fails to payback's circular financing scheme (they call it buyer's credit, we know it is just a financial market crime) and short circuits.
>>543273465>2 pbtid(You) are the fucking brainlet:>'real estate has been unprofitable for years'fucking kek, global real estate vastly exceeds returns in all stock markets that's why all of the biggest HNW entities shovel everything into it as a Real Economy asset (that also produces the greatest Financialized benefits). Everyone on the internet is a fucking midwit spewing a fountain of garbage.(You) especially have zero concept of what is occurring rn. Collapse of the global debt market is imminent, the greatest implosion in the five thousand year history of homo sapiens civilizations all of them combined.Dumb fuck.
>>543273722it'll get inflated away anyways though so the boomers are getting fucked too, no escape for the goyim
>>543273405>Treasurybros... Are we raped?The funny thing is, Besent once said, “I am the house now”—he decides the direction of the entire U.S. Treasury market.Plus, he’s gay, so being raped is actually a reward.https://x.com/clashreport/status/2098393798715822204/video/1
It is fine to believe anything you want about the US economy, but I would be very careful if you are banking on the 'business is booming' rhetoric. We KNOW all bond rates are now above 5% and that will hammer the economy. Car loans, credit cards, loans, business lines of credit, etc are all more expensive. Either you are getting hit directly with these costs or they are being passed to you from retailers who are being hit. This will reduce discretionary spending and businesses will fail. Add the cost of gas and diesel and you are putting a noose around many citizen's necks. Americans are in election time and US Markets are always pumped as a talking point for the incumbent party to crow about.The whole world that is smarter than us is starting to realize that the US can never pay the National Debt off and starting this year, things are going to go upsidedown. The last 5yr bond auction was very poor. The US is expecting to still sell a lot of debt this year and instead, every one of the top 5 bond holders is selling. Norway's Sovereign Wealth fund who has $200B in US debt is going to exit as fast as they can. All these things are going to shoot the yield higher as people run for the exits - 6-7%. Already the US pays $900B in interest only. Peter Shiff is claiming that will be $2T next year (rough $40T @ 5%). That interest amount combined with the fact that you can't get any more credit from the world means forced austerity immediately. The US pulls in $5T from taxes and needs $7T to cover all their bills. If $2T in interest comes out of the $5T, they can't exist on $3T - defense is $900B, social security/medicare/medicaid are $3T. Something has to give.Prepare if you can
>>543273909>don't really understand how economy worksNobody on this board does.the post-1970s *global economy* (the whole world not just 'muh america') is Financialized.All wealth today is sourced, generated from—no, not 'labor', 'capital' or 'work'—*speculative debt instruments*.It is a global system founded and functioning on a debt-based economic model, ever-expanding forever debt (until the currency that is backed by nothing at all finally disappears)Here is the thread yesterday:https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/543224350>>543224350
>>543273925try actually selling real estate>wow look I have real estate worth 2 million dollars! (according to me)>can you find a buyer who will pay 2 million?> ...KEK
>>543270744I'm not rich by any means but I liquidated 98% of what I owned and went all in on t-bills and I'm waiting for the crash to scoop things up at the bottom. Fingers crossed this will be my retiring move. I don't even need to hit the exact bottom of the falling knife but when equities crash I'll be there to buy the bottom. All I need is a 10x and any passive income dividend ETF will be more than enough to retire me.
>>543273850One of our major economist (Fernando Ulrich) predict a crash by December, when the Fed raises interest rates for the third time. Then it'll be completely hopeless, and the 1 trillion invested in data centers this year goes underwater. This week's Oracle debacle proves they can bleed.The USA is doomed either way. The passive investment bubble will crash soon.
>>543274095>Prepare if you canIf you have a lot of cash, you can actually wait for the stock market to crash.That way, you can buy a lot of real estate at low prices.Of course, if you don’t want to take that gamble, you can choose to buy gold and stockpile food instead. They’ll help you get through the toughest five years.
>>543274211>regex, the language of the dark wizards
>>543271481That's actually very fucking bad top kek. Equities keep going up despite the fact that there is an oil supply shock and a rate hike. They are just pumping more and more air into the AI bubble. Buffet has been on T bills since 2019 for a reason. If you must still be in the market then go for absolute essentials and boring stocks like water, food, sewage, energy distribution.. stay the fuck away from anything tech related.
>>543271735For the global equity market as a whole. Unironically the only stock market that might go up is the Russian one because it already crashed when they got sanctioned and the only way for them is up.
>>543274095>Canada flagZero comparison exists between this U.S. election cycle Nov '26 along with concomitant global economic (READ: debt market) conditions, this is totally unprecedented in human history.Stop fucking talking-head'ing this shit in these threads as though there's some 'comparison' to what came before, there isn't any. Nobody has ever seen what's happening now not any human in the five millenia of civilization.Never before have all the 160 nations of the world been dependent upon a single global default reserve transaction unit denomination. Shut the flying fuck up about 'muh america', muh Rome and comparisons to "muh other past empires".Nothing like this scenario ever existed prior not even close.I predicted we would not make it to the November 2024 (four) election and can't believe the lights are still on almost 2 yrs later.Look up these terms in archive.4plebs:>central bank>97% owned>financialization>global debt market>interest payments on debt
>>543274348A man of culture I see
>>543274211>>543274260There will be a global food crisis next year, and food prices will skyrocket.As a major food-producing country, the Brazilian government has an opportunity to make a profit.However, soaring prices will make life very difficult for ordinary people.Hey, Brazilian bro, buy some gold, and get a gun and a bulletproof vest, too.It’s very likely that the streets of Brazil will be swarming with thieves and robbers next year.
>>543274211I'm in a similar position, but I'm not touching ETFs. ETFs are the problem. This is not a data center crisis approaching, it is passive-investment. This entire paradigm that ETFs will grow forever andd you can just park money on it like it is treasuries is the problem, in my humble opinion. AI, electric cars, all of it was at the service of the religion of the S&P500.
>>543274201Residential home sales are in the gutter because of interest rates, people trying to sell are in 'golden handcuffs' (because they bought at a time when rates weren't rising)And also, because realtors / the realty industry + mortgage brokers + national banks + have been dragging their feet for 3 years to cut prices in key markets
I'm all for the US stock market to crash and burn and hedgies getting caught in judgement day .. buut I've hyped it for myself so many times and been burnt each and every single time that at this point I'll believe it when I see it with the mindset of>Nothing ever happens
>>543274526I own a gun and I lived in a gated community with 6m walls with concertina wire. It's basically needed for any peace in Huezil. As for the food shortage I don't see it going well for us. The entire country is in shambles, agribusiness is facing major financial strife here bc our nominal interest rate is in the mid low 20s and they need the money for the next harvest.To add insult to injury we don't produce fertilizer or diesel in enough quantities, we used to buy those from Russia and Belarus and the nigger tier war in Ukraine fucked that up and whatever we buy will come at a massive premium and even larger cost because of shipping costs.Regardless, if Lula is declared winner again I'm leaving Brazil.>>543274582Indeed, ETFs are a major problem today and competely unsustainable. That much nobody can argue.
>>543274671>>543274492>>543274181this is a botthe government runs these bots to control the narratives here
>>543274671yeah, which is to say that if you own real estate that you can't sell for a profit then your real estate isn't profitable>buy a house for 1 million>try to flip it for 2 million>market says they'll pay 800k>say no because then you lose money>wait 5 years>market says they'll pay 600k>GOLDEN HANDS I'M NOT IN THE MINUS IF I DON'T SELLkek and that's how you have houses that are "worth" millions but nobody buys them, if people aren't buying then it isn't worth millions
>>543274825It's a mathematical fact that it will crash it's just impossible to predict when. I also got hyped up many times but yeah I had to come to terms with the fact that if I was able to predict it I would be a billionaire so all I can do is prepare and wait.
>>543270744Trump could have simply reduced the deficit from 2017-2019 but didn't.
>>543275006> TrumpIf by now you haven't realized that the president hold no real power I don't know what to say anon.
>>543272817At least the ones that think the inflation is sort-of under control would. The rest would not.In most places they can adjust rents in under 10 years after all if inflation gets worse.
>>543275140> inflation under controlAre there people who still parrot this point of view?
>>543270744>shockingly highthey're at historical averages, maybe even a bit below still
>>543275336glownigger cope special?
>>543275219what view? this is investor behavior basically every damn time.
>>543275006>>543275042Growing the deficit is a bipartisan policy. Trump wasn't forced to spend more money, he just didn't care. It was the same with Biden and Obama.Ever since 2009, the US government has become completely indifferent to financial deficit.Now you people are being tested. You turned an 8 trillion dollars of two centuries into a debt in 40+ trillion in less than 18 years.If you remove California, Texas and Florida, one might even suspect that the USA is the sick man of the Earth.
>>543270744NUMBER 11 CRASH AND BURNCHINKS ON SUICIDE WATCHhttp://www.google.com/search?q=china+collapse
>>543270744stop spamming this chink shit you slanty eyed gook faggot ass go kys kek
>>543274949Another anon just started a home price thread rn on /pol/ CatalogReal estate is by far the most overvalued and artificially bubbled asset across the west; realtors, the realty industry, mortgage brokers and bankers have been getting free money for almost three straight decades (that has allowed it to become the nexus between the Real Economy of goods-services-commodities as to commercial and residential real estate actual usage, and the speculative Financialized aspect of buying-selling-flipping property that has megaton-exploded since the 1990s):The Money Delugehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6m49vNjEGs
>>543272817Average return on a rental property here is 4.5% lmao, but new zealand isn't a real country
>>543270744Good. Accelerate.
>>543275379I said rates / bond prices not the debt dipshit niggerfaggot. I want them to go back to 1980's levels I'm sick of all the unearned wealth from ZIRP. I realize this may cost my job and take our cities back to 1980's levels of decay. Good.
>>543275002>mathematical factI think we all agree, the next question is what is next? It is often talked about, debasing your own currency to pay off debt with inflated dollars. Treasury basically increases circulation and monetizes their own debt. People realize and the USD$ starts to fall. You hyperinflate and pay your debt with funnymoney. This is messy and okay if you are Zimbabwe, but not the reserve currency for the world.So, I think Trump will tell everyone to fuck off and erase the debt. You get frozen out of all credit markets and you get all your foreign assets nationalized. But, you don't pay $2T in interest either. Return the armed forces home and dare anyone to come collect.That is crazy talk. Well, listen to what Trump has been saying recently. I want Greenland, I want Canada, I want Mexico, I took Venezuela, I want the Panama canal back, Cuba will be ours by the fall. It looks like he is making a stronghold USA, with 2 of the largest oil reserves in the world. Greenland and Panama canal control access. He has talked about exiting NATO and removing all troops from Europe. My money is on default. US can self sustain themselves with food and oil.
>>543270744NOTHING>EVER HAPPENS
>>543275582Remember this was caused by the OPEC embargo, which was caused by Israel.
>>543275002True, I'm not passively waiting but I'm also not too excited for graphs anymore.I've seen it double before dropping down just as much in a day so whatever happens, happens.
>>543270744It's good - ZIRP has been a disaster, a Jewish playground of eceonomic nonsense.Interest rates should be at 12%.
>>543275540well yeah, which is to say that real estate hasn't been profitable for years>>543275582nobody cares about your glownigger copes eglin faggot, people here understand that 5% interest on 40 trillion is a much bigger number than 7% interest on 4 trillion, this retarded jewish obfuscation will only work on retarded boomers at a miga rally
>>543275582So instead there is unearned wealth from holding these bonds the interest of which taxpayers pay.
>>543275441 <--Brazil flag 7 pbtid>the deficitU.S. Congress holds the purse strings on fedgov spending. Not the presidentCongress is a corporate globalist zionist owned Uniparty, that increases spending in a one-way rachet.Zero discussion or forum exists (as it did in the mid-1990s and prior to that) in D.C. swamp or the Capitol to reduce federal government spending or work on balancing budgets. They simply don't even address it (let alone care) anymore because the functioning of *fiscal* policy—Congress' spending—is entirely based on and presumes, flows from what *monetary*—Treasury + the central bank—policy provides to them 'free' by "printing" it on a computer screen.Accountability does not exist in the D.C. swamp , U.S. Congress any more. (Though the pepsi vs. coke kayfabe kabuki "n-no u" divide-&-conquer slapfighting still does, natch) They serve only the central banks.
>>543275649>Remember this was caused by the OPEC embargo, which was caused by Israel.yup, and now they've caused another fuel shock and we're hiking into it because rates have entered a secular bull market and the Fed follows the market not the other way despite what idiots think.>>543275707>people here understand that 5% interest on 40 trillion is a much bigger number than 7% interest on 4 trilliondo you think I don't understand that? what do you think will actually force our ZoG to stop borrowing to handout money to their politically connected pals?>>543275727>So instead there is unearned wealth from holding these bonds the interest of which taxpayers pay.at least that is honest instead of paying in inflation from rate suppression. Maybe that will wake some people up, but probably not because most americans are fat golems which is why I want them to suffer
>>543275825><--Brazil flag 7 pbtidIt is called having a conversation. I am discussing things with other anons. People used to do this on /pol/. This is an 90 replies and counting thread.
>>543275420The view that inflation is under control.>>543275612> what is nextIMO a complete reshuffle of power relations. Russia will control Europe, China will control Asia and the US will control the americas. Each to strong to have any real challengers but too weak to become hegemon.
>>543275707>Hungary flag 7 pbtidPerhaps in Hungary it 'isn't profitable', in the United States realtors are rolling in dough and continue to no matter the slowdowns in activity. Home prices will be forced to decline here even in the markets where realtors/mortgage brokers have been die-hards about discounts. That's supply and demand
>>543275923kek you triggered the bot.
>>543275540Demand destruction. Interest rates are 7.5%, houses are $250K in most of the country. Where I live, there seems to be a renaissance now because this area's an ugly shithole and people have no choice but to move here if they want a house.>>543274260According to Armstrong's Socrates, the crash will happen next year. But considering how the midterms are going to be a bloodbath, Trump is probably going to go scorched Earth and fuck everyone to the highest degree with wars and kikery
>>543275919>do you think I don't understand that?either that or you're deliberately lying about it with the usual migger copes>hurrr but rates were higher in pastwhen the debt was 10x smaller lmao>>543276064try selling them then lmao, when 80% of the houses aren't being sold then they aren't worth the money that the sellers are asking for, that's supply and demand
>>543275540>Real estate is by far the most overvalued and artificially bubbled asset across the west; realtors, the realty industry, mortgage brokers and bankers have been getting free money for almost three straight decadesyep, time to get a real job coin clippers
>>543274211So you are holding cash waiting to buy the biggest of dips? I am new to the stock market shenanigans.
>>543276226You aren't saying anything you stupid Hungarian faggot. Yes, higher borrowing costs means higher debt service because they never pay it off they just roll it. Do you have a fucking point beyond harping like al little bitch on that very obvious thing?
My friends getting paper-Jewed?Welcome!
>>543276367do you have a point beyond migger copes and glownigger damage control?
>>543275923Read what I wrote in the post and address that content (not backbiting about the post count)I don't *ever* comment about Brazil's economic conditions because I have zero concept or knowlege of what occurs there. Likewise, non-U.S. flags need to stfu about what their imaginary ideas are about how American economic conditions are progressing and U.S. influence in the global debt situation because the entire world all 160 nations depend on the UST denomination.Quit tying the denomination, to the country. ("oh noes muh jewsa is about to go down")USD is now a meaningless rudderless disembodiied unit. It has no bearing on America itself any more, the only thing that 'matters' is how much the rest of the world (and particularly HNW) have confidence in the U.S. treasury's and federal government's ability to remain solvent in the coming 18 months (or less if everything globally implodes). More volatility in the global bond markets seem certaint to comeThis was all posted all the stats facts and analyses on the thread yesterday ^^^^^that was linked upthread, not going to re-hash it all over again
>>543276033>materialization of orwellian geographyWhen i was a kid, orwell sounded like some sort of paranoid doomer. I could never imagine i would see the day when reality would just be straight up worse in all aspects.
>>543276408>glownigger glownigger glowniggerdo I sound like I'm toting the gov line you stupid ESOL piece of shit?
>>543276467yep
>>543276033>other Brazil flag 10 pbtid fistbumping Brainlet shillbots "muh putler muh chinarino muh geopolitricks"Neither of (You) have a fucking clue what is occurring rn or what you're posting about. Not a tiny shred
>>543276295Pretty much. T bills are a very short time bond it's as safe as possible and highly liquid. Once the market crashes I can scoop a bag up at the bottom mainly things that people need for day to day like water, power, sewage, food... things that are needed for society while placing 10% in growing stocks that are more speculative in nature.
>>543276530shutup faggot I've been trading longer than you've been alive
>>543276467Just ignore the two brainlet Brazil flags and the Hungarian.
>>543276587hell yeah stack paper
>>543276587>tradingNot for much longer.I'm three times (You)r age fwiw
>>543276587Any advice on how to start?
>>543276464top kek it's just the natural state of things. The pendulum of globalization swung back.>>543276530My dad works at nintendo and he teaches me how to invest.
>>543276033It does seem like Russia, China and the USA have divided up the world. The USA has abandoned Ukraine and Taiwan and openly spoke about pulling out of NATO. Last week Taiwan tried to normalize relations with China as they realize the US won't support them. Last month he said Europe was dead and wouldn't last until 2030. Russia seems to have abandoned Cuba - US blockade is starving them out with rolling blackouts. Trump has talked about taking Cuba a few times recently, even at the UN speech yesterday. China has hundreds of billions of dollars of loans to Venezuela in exchange for oil, but let Trump walk away with it without a peep.Pretty humorous that in 1984 Orwell talked about Oceania, Eurasia and East Asia.
>>543276655sure you are. what is your grand point oh wise one? that global debt markets are intertwined and not just the US is going down? no fucking shti
>>543276672
>>543271735Mostly only for countries that fully rely in USA so Japan, Israel, China, South Korea and Saudus
>>543276672> tradingDon't. Unless you join a quant firm don't fucking trade just focus on making more money and investing every month around 25% of your salary to dollar cost average. The risk is just not worth it for 99.99% of the people even if you manage to be a profitable trader. It's only reasonable to do it if you trade on OPM.
>>543276702Just shut the fuck up dumb fuck and keep trading.Shut the fuck up. Stupid fuck tard. Trade harderDo a flip.
>>543276672honestly I wouldn't at this point, the days of the home trader making easy money are decades past at this point. But if you really want to, start by actually understanding how a dual auction works, what the purpose of the market (in theory) actually is - price discovery and facilitating trade. For more on this look at the bookmap software, no it alone won't make you successful but look at the ideas behind the way it displays data. I think they have some videos out too, them or one of the similar charting platforms does. It's the hardest "easy money" you'll ever make
>>543276681>comprehending the global debt market is about trading and investing
>>543276934>price discoveryNo longer exists in global capital markets
>>543276788>no actual responsefucking thread full of blowhard idiots as usual, place is dead. KYS
>>543276688Orwell just placed on paper the ideas that McKinder and many others wrote about. Geography defines geopolitics. Tell me, what is more logical? To use Suez or link up China with Europe via rail through Russia?This is why the atlantic powers of the west has always done it's damnest to balkanize Russia or put it at odds with central europe.
>>543276983Depends on the time scale, but yeah that's why I put in theory
>>543276999checked you first brainlet(And won't be long either)
>>543276672>Be rich nepobabyIf you weren't that, it's pointless.
>>543277075Entire post-1990s (after Glass-Steagall repeal that officially made the global investment banks into casinos) economy is theoretical, and speculative.
>>543277147Mostly this. You have to have money to burn, or put another way money you can afford to lose, to 'make a living' (daily) as a day-trader small fish on the different market circuits. Because most of who you're going to be up against not only have far bigger checkbooks than yours but are also privy to all kinds of proprietary institutional and inside information that you'll never access or be able to react fast enough to keep ahead of.
>>543270744I voted for this.
remember in 2022 when inflation really started ripping, everyone freaked out about the "bond market" and said "get out of us stocks NOW". well, i did NOT get out of US stocks. I actually bought way more. Turns out that was a good decision. But yeah, totally keeping shorting America, it's TOTALLY based and red pilled!
>>543277483Stocks were definitely the place to be.The bond market is more about reality. Bonds are what companies, utilities, states, funds, countries buy to have a small return on a guaranteed investment. The stock market is one step from a full out casino. It will keep going up providing we can put a $200B datacenter in every city in the USA and AI never actually has to make money and prove returns. We need that to keep expanding and never stop. If the expansion ever stops, the hype runs out and reality strikes. Right now the Magnificent 7 stocks are 34% of the SP500.
>>543275612>My money is on default. US can self sustain themselves with food and oil.I don't disagree with anything you said, but the US are special since they don't believe in god or country but in finance and free market, so what does that part of the country stand in all that? What does wall street think of this plan?
>>543274825
>>543277836From an asset markets analysis perspective this anon gets it
>>543278250It's happening
>>543278623
>>543270744morons posting this every single day.why should i care?zoom out, retards.
>>543270744No Dumbass. People are dropping dollars and interest income from the bonds will flood the market and drive up the US Stock market, Bitcoin and gold as people want US dollars. US Stocks will see a massive Bull Run but that's a increase in real value but just flight to safety and inflation.
>>543276934Ty
>>543270954>>543271199>immediate memeflaggot defense forceI'm nooooooooticing
>>543270744Fuckin sucks dude I was THIS close to being a millionaire I got huge amounts of MSTR calls and then Mortgages did 7.5% and all bonds are going to unreal heights and now people are getting scared off of risk.
>>543278794Well, you should care because the entire global system depends on debt, everything you do and breathe and eat does.Confidence in the debt market is what keeps (You) alive, day in and day out.Interest Payments are real, even if you think debt is fake
>>543276765>an anonymous brazilian flag gives financial advice on a autistic anime board typical /pol/>>543276999what did you expect, retard?did you forget where you were?
>>543278869Sorry, I meant people don't want to hold dollars as seen by the rising long term rates.
>>543278997Brazilians are very serious about not working for their money. You should take our advice, we are a country run by NEETs and criminals.
>>543278967shitty political framing. most people buy bonds directly or indirectly via their 401k plan. the right hand left hand shit never gets old. also this is just the cost side not the asset and return side.
>>543277933All financial plans are usually based on expansion; new markets, new customers, new products, new mergers, etc. The financial guys can make money in tear downs like bankruptcy restructuring, but expansion is really what they want. Starting before the end of this year, there is going to be a contraction. The US credit card is max'd and the 'bank' is not giving the US anymore money. There is just no way to pay the boomers that are expecting the social security they paid into. They are also expecting Medicare and Medicaid. You are talking about $3.5T for those three items. As is common on /pol/ ... fuck boomers. Yes, but can you imagine the businesses and jobs that rely on this $3.5T? It isn't about just removing the obligation to pay and medicate boomers, it is a giant part of the economy.If Default is Trumps secret plan then it makes sense when he talks about bringing back manufacturing to the US. Everything will have to be homegrown and nothing global.
>>543278794I hear ya. Two more weeks. But, this really is different. For the longest time it was always, "you shouldn't go into more debt". Rates were very low, interest was low. Remember all of the 'raise the debt ceiling' and 'shut down government' talk in Congress? They were arguing over whether it was a good idea or bad idea. We are at the stage where it isn't, "we shouldn't raise more debt" but at the stage of "we can't raise more debt". First you would have to find the buyers and the biggest guys are selling. Next you have to cover the interest on those treasury sales. >Sellers of US debt>Japan — −$108.6B>China — −$61.9B>South Korea — −$6.6B>Hong Kong — −$4.1B>Buyers were UK, Canada, Belgium, Luxembourg, France, IrelandI really think Its Happening ... ron.jpg
>>543270744Jfc you people are idiots. If bonds aren't due now the rate is not relevant. Nothing will happen.
>>543275825>Dot-com surplus Where's the ai surplus?
>>543280681>>Buyers were UKkek
>>543279782>political framingThat's what everyone else in these thread except for me is doing (I'm trying get people out of their politics-ideological dumbing down blinders)(You) arrived here on /pol/ Politics and Current Events said 'why should i care' and I gave hime a frame of reference that an NPC could graspHere is yesterday's threadhttps://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/543224350>>543224350Look up these terms in archive.4plebs:>central bank>97% owned>financialization>global debt market>interest payments on debt
>>543278997Only possible on 4chan>>543279287Hilariously accurate.Rentismo uber alles
>>543280681Wait until the GCC sovereign funds start dumping bc they are short on cash now that the oil stopped flowing with Iran and the Houthis.
>>543281355>GCC sovereign funds... and Norway's wealth fund which has $200B of US Debt on the books. I think they are most scared of Japan and actively intervening in their market. Japan is trying to keep their currency afloat and sell US Debt to raise cash to buy the YEN. $108B net sellers of debt, which just keeps the yield rising.
>>543280726Yeah thankfully it’s only the 30 year bonds going to the moon.. retard.
>>543281561Yup. Japan is the canary in the coal mine IMO. I just don't know how things will look once the japanese carry trade move is gone. Perhaps China will step in who the fuck knows.
is this a good time to buy mining stonks?
>>543271124They care but are too stupid to form an opinion. The need to read the thread so it makes up their mind for them.
> interest rates through the roof> prices around me have come down like 5% at mostDoes anybody truly understand how they have rigged the housing market? I know Black rock etc. but they don’t own every house in every market. How have they been able to rig the entire national market at the same time?
>>543281857I’d wager that some other country that is in shit shape like how japan was im the 80’s when their carry trade began will become the new cheap money for arbitrage. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was turkey.
My super extensive research (ChatGPT) tells me that I should be buying bonds (gilts here) over continuing to buy stocks once they reach 7% YTM, as a guaranteed 7% is better than a "maybe" 8-10% in stocks.
>>543271003Never because the US government can never give its creditors real returns.
>>543270954>memeflag>first post>1pbtid>bond yield one of the most important stats in the economyGetting real sick of your shit, shlomo
>>543271236>Daily reminder that if you see a Chinese flag on pol that person is almost definitely some type of glownigger.So?Chinese glowniggers are both more likeable and intelligent than the typical mutt poster.
>>543271124it's a shill tactic trying to destroy the chans.
>>543282236Why Turkey of all places? They don't have the political nor the legal framework for that to happen. Japan worked bc they have rule of law, are industrialized and had a population that for cultural reasons saved a lot.
>>543282341>a guaranteed 7% is better than a "maybe" 8-10% in stocks.until inflation spikes to 15% and you wish you'd bought gold instead.
>>543274348>>543274211>>543274516it matches email addresses
>>543281662Bills + notes is over half the debt btw.
>>543282341did they mention that they were purposefully omitting the impact of inflation and that time horizon was an important determinant, or did ChatGPT just sneak that past you without even bringing it up?
>>543280726these are the types of people calling anons retards in threads about finance.
>>543281079>yesterday you do it every dayanother shit thread, shit arguments>OMG rising yield means people are refusing to buyit just means that buyers are repricing their expectations>what is bid to cover ratio, hovering well over 2>what is debt to GDPnobody is losing trust, they are just expecting higher returns >NOOO long term trust collapsedterrified investors are literally lining up in droves to buy these exact bonds because that means a 5.20% guaranteed return from the biggest printing press on earth>OMG japan and china are dumping 70% of the us debt is owned by US corporations and private investorswhy are poltards so obsessed with treating the US economy as some sort of a corporation on the verge of bankruptcy or their own personal debts? >can't afford to pay it down>market stops lending >dramatic default>the FED files chapter 11>HAPPENINGeven if there is a real looming catastrophe, this is the wrong one. but /pol/ has always been obsessing with the end of the world, no less.
>>543283976>nobody is losing trust, they are just expecting higher returnsYou sound like a used car salesman, anon.
>>543271003>buying long term bonds of the Jewish States of America when paying down the debt with one of these is Zion Don's plan
>>543270744>22-year highheh... why...I rember 22 yrs ago and...uh things were the same...crazy...i know
>>543284428We were only 7 trillion in debt. Now we're 40 trillion.
>>543273850>“高志凯,” an economist in China, predicts that the U.S. stock market will crash on July 1, 2027.Its going to crash this winter from the massive consumption crunch caused by spiking food and energy prices. I cant say when but I can say that it will. The bond market will go with it.
>>543284957It wasn't a big deal back in the day. But the entire world went full retard because of a flu in the 2020, and now we are all going to die.There were specialists back in the day calling the modern situation of complete fiscal chaos an 'impossible nightmare scenario' back in 2008.
>>543270744OH NO I GET MORE MONEY BACK ON MY TREASURIES TRADING STRATEGY WHAT A TRAGEDY!
>>543283784The breakdown of who is owed is interesting. I figured it was mostly countries.Countries are $9.25TFederal Reserve is $4.5TUS Mutual funds $4.2TAmericans and retail investors $7TSocial Security trust $3TIt makes a default less likely I think. Throwing off the $9.25T foreign debt would save something, but not worth it to be frozen out of debt markets. This is going to get sticky.
>>543283976the global debt is too hard gh to be repaid but that just means they'll pull a new bretton woods and all the insiders will be fine while everyone else takes a haircut. world will keep turning
>>543270744can u guys sell treasuries at a faster rate pls
>>543273909>what were you thinkingJew warsJew pandemics
>>543275689>Interest rates should be at 12%.40%
AI gonna pay for us all to be NEETs.All Hail AI. Thou shalt take infinite loans to make robots and AI.
>>543285681Honestly, the US could keep kicking the can along if it had cheap energy. Since the war has fucked that, things are going to get bad. I already know LIHEAP (program for poorfags to get heat) and everything is going to be overwhelmed.Nothing gets better. Even if we don't collapse, we get poorer and poorer by the day.
>>543282177They didn't right anything. It started with Clinton repealing glass steagall then became immeasurably worse because Trump made housing demand parabolic by massively lowering interest rates. He did this right during covid too so fucking retards could by us housing. It was a feast for sharks, mostly boomers, who now corner the rental housing market everywhere in the US
>>543290803Clinton didn't craft the repeal, all it's sponsors were GOP Congressmen. The banks lobbied the shit out of it, and sold Clinton (and everyone else) that provisions were holding US banks back from competing internationally.Slick Willy DID put his name on it, but as with all corporate deregulation, it's parents were all Republican.
>>543290803Bullshit. Rates were low back in the financial crisis and for many years after and we didn’t see the same coordinated rise all at once like in 2021. What they have done is part of the 2030 owning nothing plan and I want to know how exactly they did it. I’m pretty sure redfin and zillow are involved somehow bc those are the primary outlets for goyim to see the (((market prices)))
>>543290097>AI is the new trickle-down economics.Lol, good luck waiting on that one.Americans will see 4 figure checks from Donald before billionaires part with their hot AI trillions for the sake of the little guy.
how does this affect the average wagecuck
You're misunderstanding.Those that hold their property outright are fucked, yes.Those still with mortgages offload all the risk to the bank.>low interest rate locked in>arb mortgage-government spreads, because locked-in mortgages are lower than treasuries>government is literally paying for your housing with their rates>debt is an inflation hedge>can't get a new mortgage and move because the new rate is obscenely high>not enough capital to buy outright>other boomers refuse to take a haircut on where you'd want to move
>>543291949meant for >>543274949
Are you faggots ready for Black Monday? The happening do be happening.
The ai bubble is going to make the dot com crash AND 2008 look like a joke.
>>543294278>>543294464Do you think it will be worse than the Great Depression or just worse than 2008
>>543296160if ur white u'll b nwo genocidednons will be kangz
>>543296160There are backstops in place, they will just halt the market automatically if such an event takes place. In fact one did recently, COVID, where the stock market lost a third of its value overnight, then magically bounced back a month or so later. What that was, was the hidden hand, the plunge protection team which was the stuff of conspiracy theories until Trump repeatedly thanked them on TV.An AI crash will be like, 5% drop before 10am, and then a stop for the day, then the next day a 5% drop before 10am, then another stop, then on the third day the AI stocks will stabilize thanks to PPT and finally over the next year or two dwindle to nearly nothing giving even the most retarded fund manager time to gracefully pull out.
>>543270744Should be 10% minimum because hyperinflation is the only way out of our massive debt and the money supply will be 50x what it is now in 30 years. 5.5% bonds will be sold at massive discounts in a few years.
>>543272158Thanks leaf. Too many trannies here don't appreciate insightful posts and then wonder why this board is dying.
>>543270744dunno what you poorfags on about, you should have bought in 2021 and right now you'd be a billionarie
Two more weeks.
>>543278967nothing happened during last 40 trillion, what makes trannies like you freak out over few more trillions?
>>543276530Slurs are wasted on you. I just feel pity for your mental capacity. Your mouth is as big as your waistline and contribute nothing to discussions
>>543296846Long time I read about the PPT again. You know your stuff
>>543274526>the streets of Brazil will be swarming with thieves and robbers next yearslant-eye, have you been to Brazil? rekt videos are one part chink, one part indian, and one part brazil
>>543283976So I don't think it's doomsday but the highest rates in 20 years are something to take notice of. There's a few more critical thresholds to hit before we get doomsday.
>>543272817They won't be able to sell their real estate because the interest rate is too high though.......
>>543298468That anon thinks it is a matter of discussion the awful fiscal policy of his country.
>>543301257yes, because it is the basis of literally every other financial system in the developed world. rich people do not care about what resources a country has or controls because that isn't what pays them. what pays is all the stupid fucking acronyms that indicate the legitimacy of a business' books in the face of its leverage potential and how entrenched its market is in the relationship, which all goes back to where the credit is coming from which is where the money gets poofed into being which is decided by an "independent" (shadowy) "firm" (cabal) that has almost strictly been 100% jewish for as long as anyone remembers which is reflected in every other major central issuing authority around the world (they're all banking jews, even in china!)
>>543270744imagine locking your money for 30 years, yields should be like 15% there or even 30%
>>543291631all debts inside US become more expensive and government might start printing if nobody buys them, so inflation
>>543301551There's no lock-in mechanism, you can buy and sell 30y bonds like stocks, what you're looking at is the spread/yield of a highly liquid asset.
>>543272292>>543272602no they dont reinvest it.thats the skimthe interest payments go into the pockets of the privately held central banks owners pockets.they get paid via the taxes of all this and funnel it back through principalities and banking enclaves via numbered accounts until it finally reaches their own pockets.>So, the INTEREST, not created as the PRINCIPAL is created, is taxed directly and indirectly and makes its way through various trusts, holding companies and principalities. Many eyes watch this progression through the various steps until it ultimately makes its way into worthy hands!In 'Canada' the taxes collected by the maritime incorporated federal government of canada via the CRA get funneled eventually through I forgot off my mind but Nova Scotia, or Prince Edward Island and go back to the Inns of Court in the City of London. The Inner Temple holds the legal system franchise by license to steal from Canada and Great Britain. The Middle Temple that has legal license to steal from America. The Inns of Court manage the tax returns. The federal government in turn is granted credit via the central banks. even down to the local level now all the 'governments' turn in their tax dollars for loans via banks, get involved at the local level yourself and find out the creditor is the owner of everything. Read the People Vs Littlechild if your a canadian. this is the black magick scheme that keeps the controllers in power. they get you to use the DEBT and they skim off your blood sweat and tears and soul, and trade you DEBT issued out of nothing for your hard earned ASSETs while they sit around and do nothing but herd you like cattle to their own benefit. this isnt even scratching the surface of it all.
>>543287907>can u guys sell treasuries at a faster rate plsChina isn’t actually “selling off U.S. Treasuries”; we’re simply not renewing them when they mature.Long-term bonds are simply allowed to expire, and now the Chinese government only buys short-term bonds with maturities of two or three years.Because the interest rates are very high, it’s a surefire way to make a profit.No one is buying long-term bonds.
>>543275612that is the only solutiondeclare the debt odious and incurred under duress,which it is, grab your guns, and tell the bankers to come and fuckin get it.its the only way out.everyone knows it, but wont admit it or can'todious debt should be the household topic of the west, nobody knows what it means.
>>543275540>Real estate is by far the most overvalued and artificially bubbled asset across the westYou're absolutely retarded kek. Real Estate and land is one of the only real assets there are in existence.
Trump was going to rug pull the dollar from day one, the bond market is only now coming to grips with what that looks like. Elect a Peronist expect Argentine style economics.
>>543270744You are allowed to post with chineese IP adress only to shill with govetment supervision?
>>543270744good, bonds have been in the shitter
>>543271638Investing is how you beat inflation you moron
>>543271692>We need China to create a 4chan of its own, so we can browse it.It's called Tiktok, retard. Leave and go there
>>543301806entities that buy 30y treasuries are not interested in flipping them
so now that it's completely and utterly overnow what?
>>543282410This is the best advice on this board. Rates are going up because inflation is rising. You need to buy assets that will outperform inflation, not just keep up with it
I LITERALLY HAVE LIKE 500K IN STOCKS, WHAT SHOULD I DO BEFORE THE CRASH? STOCKS HAVE DONE GREAT THIS LAST WEEK
>>543270744Doesn't line go up usually mean good?
>>543303801>now what?Stockpile supplies and precious metals.This Great Depression will last at least 10 to 15 years.You’ll need to find a job that supports the basic functioning of society, such as agriculture, mining, oil, logging, or transportation.These are all absolutely essential, entry-level jobs,because without them, the country would collapse.Life will be hard, but at least you won’t starve to death on the streets.
>>543270744When the US falls, everyone falls with it. You don't remove the world police and the banking system underpinning the entire system without getting raped.That's why I hope it happens. I want every other country to suffer and implode. You faggots deserve it.
>>543304141buy trump coin obviously
