The superyacht Bayesian was swallowed by a freak storm off the coast of Sicily. It sank to the bottom of the sea. Or... did it?
You are a freelance political writer scraping by in the digital trenches. You survive on crypto bounties, tip jars, and reader donations. It’s barely enough to keep the heating on in your cramped, one-room Chicago apartment. You thought your biggest problem was making next month's rent.You were wrong.It started with an email. A reader, captivated by your deep-dive article on "Remote Viewing and Geopolitical Forecasting," wanted to meet in person. He promised a "lucrative opportunity." Desperation makes you say yes to a lot of things. Now, he’s sitting on your faded sofa, sipping coffee from a chipped mug as if it were fine china.He introduced himself simply as "Mr. Souvarine." He’s tall, with sharp, aristocratic features that look carved from marble. He’s dressed in a bespoke suit, a Rolex Datejust catching the dim light of your single overhead bulb, and a pair of limited-edition Greggyrocks. He radiates an aura of absolute, unshakeable authority."I want to investigate the Bayesian incident," Mr. Souvarine says, his voice smooth and measured. "Are you familiar with the case?""Can't say that I am," you reply."The Bayesian was Dr. Mike Lynch’s pride and joy. He was a brilliant, eccentric man... and an acquaintance of mine. The circumstances of its sinking defy conventional explanation in multiple aspects. I have the capital, and I require a mind to lead the inquiry.""I can look into it," you say."It is not so simple. Dr. Lynch was a man of absolute science. Before I entrust you with my funds, I must verify your intellect. Specifically, your grasp of advanced mathematics. If we are to unravel this mystery, such skills will be your only weapon."He slides a sealed, wax-stamped envelope across your cheap coffee table. "Solve the puzzle inside," he commands, his eyes locking onto yours. "And explain your reasoning. Show me you are the one for the job."
>Mr. Souvarine has presented you with a test. Read the contents of the envelope, solve the mathematical riddle, and write out your step-by-step deductive process to prove your worth.
>>6436406First of all, I want to start that this with clarifying that setting this as a challenge with a particular answer is an extremely stupid idea if we are to look at it from purely mathematical standpoint.Basicaly, what he ask is to recover function f from two variables such that f(4;5)=29.f(3;6)=27f(7;2)=23. But obviously, there is infinitely many of them. Hell, there is infinitely many two-variavles polynomials f that satisfy the condition. I will explain.Funnily enough, not polynomial of degree 1 since system of equations>4a+5b+c=29>3a+6b+c =27>7a+2b+c = 23 actually has no such a;b;c (matrix determinant is 0)but it`s obvious to everyone with basic linear algebra knowledge that system>16a +20b+25c+4d+5e+f=29>9a+18b+36c+3d+6e+f=27>49a+14b+4c+7d+2e+f =23has infinitely many solutions. As such, there is even infinitely many second-degree polynomials f. So, it is not in fact math problem but some dumb logical puzzle and I would treat is as such. 29-4*5 = 27-3*6=23-7*2=9.The answer is 14, since 14-5*1=9.
This is too brilliant for the dumb-dumbs of /qst/. You should have rephrased it then posted it to /sci/.
>>6436461Collaboration is encouraged. You may review the other anon's response, refine the reasoning, or study the problem again.
>>6436468I agree. You guys are way too smart for qst. you should leave and never come back, yes
>>6436406I-is it 11? Multiply the numbers then add the sum of the numbers too?
>>6436455It is a dumb logic puzzle not a math problem.But the answer is 11. It's not that complicated. It's just the multiplication solution plus the solution from if the equation is addition instead.
>>6436567 #And furthermore, if this is a logic puzzle, it would *still* have at least two viable answers - 14, in the case of the function being (A*B)+9, or 11 in the case of it being (A*B)+A+B, because in all the known cases, the variables add up to 9.One could actually close this inconsistency by replacing the 5 in the unknown case with an 8. Then there would only be one (clear) answer; 17. The number pairs all sharing the property of adding up to 9 then serves as a fun little hint towards the relationship between what their products should be versus what the actual output is.… If the point was to get me to analyze the puzzle itself, my conclusion is either that the one who designed this test is *incompetent,* which I doubt given the context, or this flaw in the puzzle was left in intentionally to test my ability to find flaws within the very premise of a problem. Flaws and unknowns such as *why* you believe “advanced mathematics” - which at this point I take to be code for “solving bullshit puzzles” - is such a critical skill for solving a cold case about a boat. I take it this has to do with Dr. Souvarine’s “eccentricities?”
Mr. Souvarine listens in silence as you finish your explanation. Then, he smiles."Linear algebra," he says. "And polynomial interpolation. I must admit, when I read your articles on remote viewing, I expected a mystic. Not a mathematician."He leans back. "You are correct. The puzzle was intentionally flawed. It was a sieve. Most people would blindly search for a superficial pattern and guess a number. You questioned the very premise of the test. You proved you are open-minded enough to see when a problem is fundamentally broken. You passed."He pauses. "Though, I confess, I was secretly hoping you would utilize the Remote Viewing skills you wrote about. I wanted to see if you could simply close your eyes and *see* the mind of the person who designed the test, pulling the intended answer directly from their memory. Between 11 and 14, both are logically valid. But your analytical deconstruction... it exceeds my expectations."Mr. Souvarine reaches into the inner pocket of his tailored suit. He pulls out a heavy black box and sets it on the table. Opening it, he reveals a deck of Tarot cards. They are exquisite. The cardstock is thick and luxurious, the edges lined with shimmering silver foil that catches the dim light of your apartment."Tell me," he says. "Are you knowledgeable about the Tarot?""No.""Perfect."He shuffles the deck with quick, practiced motions. He spreads the cards face-down across the table and picks one at random. Then he slides it across the table toward you.>The Three of Cups. Upright."Tarot cards can be pulled upright or reversed," Souvarine explains. "The orientation fundamentally alters their meaning. This card, drawn upright, represents the case you are about to investigate: the Bayesian."He taps a finger against the silver-foil edge of the card."Please, examine the elements of the card carefully. Tell me... how do they make you feel?"
>Mr. Souvarine has presented you with a second test. This is an exercise in intuition and perception.Rules for your response:1. DO NOT search the internet for Tarot interpretations. If you look up the "Three of Cups" online, you will fail the test. Rely only on your own mind.2. Before writing your post, take one minute in real life to clear your mind. Take deep breaths in, and deep breaths out. (This will help you tap into your actual intuition for the exercise). 3. Look at the image of the Tarot card (The Three of Cups). Focus your attention on one specific element of the image.4. Describe exactly how you feel looking at that specific element. Write down those raw, unfiltered feelings.5. (Optional): Afterward, you may provide an analysis of the symbolism of any or all the elements you see, but it must be based strictly on your personal knowledge and intuition.Tarot Card pulled from https://www.dailytarotdraw.com/single-card-tarot-reading
>>6436432>>6436432>>6436432This quest has officially been approved by Sloucho. As a published author and widely considered the best QM on this board, his blessing is the highest honor a quest can receive.
>>6437272The raised cups made me think of concluding a pact, of creating a bond.
>>6437272The way the three arms cross over each other indicates, to me, the feeling of multiple parties acting on behalf of one another chaotically, but to a united purpose, as indicated by how the different grips resolve into the cups themselves being in near-perfect parallel - in other words, a conspiracy comprised of at least three primary actors, working separately towards the same goal in a way that makes determining who did what individually difficult but simpler when taken together as a group.That the cups are raised high above, while a harvest bounty lays almost discarded around their feet… the goal of the conspiracy behind the Bayesian pertains to a purpose considered higher than any earthly reward.But enough about *my* opinion…>View remotely; Mr. Souvarine was confident enough in this being the correct card that there’s no way he didn’t force it. What does *he* think of the upright 3 of Cups in relation to this case?
>>6437356Remote Viewing: You can't currently view inside Mr. Souvarine's mind. The RV techniques you practice, derived from the Monroe Institute, aren't the instant, movie-style powers where you just look through a window into someone's head. It's a time-consuming activity that requires examining a lot of different elements one by one.
>>6437272I see 3 women holding up cups. They appear to be dancing together in a circle. Around them there are various autumn fruits and vegetables. It seems to be a harvest celebration.The element that I will focus on the red robed woman. Her clothes are out of place with the simple attire the other two are wearing. Perhaps she's a noble celebrating with her peasants. I can't see her face and overall I feel a degree of malice from her, but the woman on the right looks right at her and she doesn't look worried, so I think my feelings are misplaced. It's upright, so it has to be positive, right? So I say the red robed woman is a good master who is celebrating a harvest festival with her peasants. Good in the meaning she has put in effort in to letting this harvest happen.3 women might refer to the maiden-mother-crone trinity. One on the left has flowers in her hair, meaning spring, maiden. One on the right has leaves, summer, mother. Middle one has nothing, autumn, crone. This could mean they are witches or pagans performing a ritual or giving thanks to whatever powers they serve for the harvest they granted.
I'm leaving the submissions open because it's an important turn and we need to gather as much data as possible.
>>6437272The red one is kinda pushing white out of frame but leaving the brown despite shoving her glass right in her face. Kind of jerk move, probably deserves the twisted ankle... ...but then again, I wouldn't want to wish that on anyone, even an blowhard attention whore, so maybe not.
>>6437272I desided to focus on the harvest itself. There is actually not a lot of it. I see grapes. pumpkin and maybe tomato? (I do not know when exactly standart tarot deck images were first created and is image here even standart, so I do not see any particular problem with that). However, there is not a lot of it in the picture. Surely not enough to warrant celebration. This and diference in plants tell me, that they are celebrating not near the harvest but at some designated palce for such celebrations. Yet they still brought some fruits of labor there just to flaunt them. Honestly, there is nothing objectively wrong with it, in fact it seems rather traditional. Yet it somehow fills me personally with some unease. Was harvest really that good or are they going above and beyond to pretend it was? Honestly, this is probably just my paranoia speaking.
I'm analyzing the data. Update in 12 hours.
RV SUMMARY>CupsThe raised cups make me think of concluding a pact, of creating a bond. >ArmsThe way the three arms cross over each other indicates the feeling of multiple parties acting on behalf of one another chaotically, but to a united purpose, as indicated by how the different grips resolve into the cups themselves being in near-perfect parallel.>Red-robed woman- Her clothes are out of place with the simple attire the other two are wearing. Perhaps she's a noble celebrating with her peasants. I can't see her face and overall I feel a degree of malice from her.- The red one is kinda pushing white out of frame but leaving the brown despite shoving her glass right in her face. Kind of jerk move, probably deserves the twisted ankle...>HarvestThere is actually not a lot of it. I see grapes. pumpkin and maybe tomato? However, there is not a lot of it in the picture. Surely not enough to warrant celebration. This and diference in plants tell me, that they are celebrating not near the harvest but at some designated palce for such celebrations. Yet they still brought some fruits of labor there just to flaunt them. It somehow fills me personally with some unease. Was harvest really that good or are they going above and beyond to pretend it was? >Analysis-Three arms crossed: A conspiracy comprised of at least three primary actors, working separately towards the same goal in a way that makes determining who did what individually difficult but simpler when taken together as a group. That the cups are raised high above, while a harvest bounty lays almost discarded around their feet… the goal of the conspiracy behind the Bayesian pertains to a purpose considered higher than any earthly reward.-Red-Robed woman: The woman on the right looks right at her and she doesn't look worried, so I think my feelings [that she's malicious] are misplaced. [The card]'s upright, so it has to be positive, right? So I say the red robed woman is a good master who is celebrating a harvest festival with her peasants. Good in the meaning she has put in effort in to letting this harvest happen.-Symbolism: Three women might refer to the maiden-mother-crone trinity. One on the left has flowers in her hair, meaning spring, maiden. One on the right has leaves, summer, mother. Middle one has nothing, autumn, crone. This could mean they are witches or pagans performing a ritual or giving thanks to whatever powers they serve for the harvest they granted.
You take a deep breath, letting the raw impressions settle in your mind before speaking. "It feels like a pact," you say slowly. "A united purpose. Or perhaps... a conspiracy. The harvest in the background fills me with a deep, creeping unease. And the woman in the red robe... she doesn't feel like a celebrant. She feels malicious and manipulative.""Excellent," Mr. Souvarine answers. "In traditional Tarot, the Three of Cups represents reunion and celebration. Yet, your reading is entirely different. You see intricate, hidden stories woven into the ink... That must be your Remote Viewing power in action.""Those are just my feelings," you reply. "I don't know if they're correct yet."He takes a slow sip of his coffee. "Your feelings are... fascinating. I have attempted to read the Tarot on this case several times myself. But the cards have never spoken to me.""Can you tell me more about the case?" you ask."The Bayesian was owned by Dr. Mike Lynch, a British entrepreneur and billionaire. He was a man of absolute science, holding a Ph.D. in artificial neural networks. He was even knighted into the Order of the British Empire.""On August 19, 2024, the yacht sank off the coast of Sicily during a violent storm. There were 22 people on board. Only 15 survived."He slides a piece of paper across the table. It's a list.The Deceased:>Dr. Mike Lynch (owner)>Hannah Lynch (18-year-old daughter of Dr. Lynch)>Christopher J. Morvillo (Dr. Lynch's lawyer)>Neda Morvillo (wife of Christopher Morvillo)>Jonathan Bloomer (chairman of Morgan Stanley International)>Judy Bloomer (wife of Jonathan Bloomer)>Recaldo Thomas (the yacht's chef)The Survivors:>Captain James Cutfield (head of crew)>Eight other crew members>Angela Bacares Lynch (wife of Mike Lynch)>A one-year-old baby
"That's a complex case," you say. "Highly suspicious. And it involves a massive concentration of personal wealth and high finance.""Precisely," Souvarine answers. "And it was never investigated properly. On May 9, 2025, a salvage operation was launched to recover the wreck. But during the preparations..." He lets the silence hang. "...a Dutch diver died.""What?!" you blurt out. "This is unbelievable. Is the boat cursed?""I don't know," Souvarine says. "Murder or curse. That is what you are going to investigate."He reaches into his jacket and hands you a thick, sealed envelope. "I believe you are uniquely qualified for this task. Inside is the modest data I have collected. They are photocopies of British newspaper articles and preliminary reports. It should help you get started."He stands up, smoothing his suit jacket, and places a heavy, matte-black business card on the table. "If you have inquiries, you may contact me. However, I have a very demanding schedule, so I cannot guarantee I will answer. But if you discover anything new... I will pay you handsomely."You stand and shake his hand. "Goodbye, Mr. Souvarine. This case is deeply intriguing. I intend to solve it."With a final nod, he turns and walks out the door, leaving you alone in your apartment with a sunken yacht on your mind.The investigation begins. What is your first move?> Analyze how the tarot data relates to the case.> Search for data about Angela Bacares Lynch.> Search for data about Mike Lynch's personal enemies.> Search for data about Jonathan Bloomer's personal enemies.> View remotely; what does Mr. Souvarine think about the upright Three of Cups?> Other
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>>644017215 people are said to have survived, but there's only 11 in the list. And what's with the baby? Is there really nothing known about it except the age?Next, the whole crew except the chef survived, while almost every passenger died. This is a very weird outcome. I wonder about the circumstances of the sinking>>6440173>Look for info on the other 4 survivors
>>6440175Also, what's the date of the Telegraph article?
>>6440177Mr. Souvarine didn't include the publication date for the Telegraph article.
>>6440175The owner is British, but the yacht is under the Dutch flag. I don't know what advantages there are to registering a vessel in the Nederlands, but it's notable that the dead diver was also Dutch, despite the wreck occurring in the Mediterranian
Well, first move is to comb through mountain of data.>Search for data about Mike Lynch's enterprises and lawsuit.We heard "enterpreneur", but unlike Jonathan Bloomer we have no idea, what exactly it entails in this particular case.> Search for data about Mike Lynch's personal enemies.> Search for data about Jonathan Bloomer's personal enemies.Only them are high profile enough to warrant assasination with a lot of preparation and high victim count. If primary target was someone other then them, then there is probably not a lot of primary perpetrators and the crime might be personal. Then, > Search for data about Captain James Cutfield because if it was a conspirasy with that many crewman surviving it`s highly likely he either was on it or had a very timely suspicion. Also, +1 to >Look for info on the other 4 survivorsThey are probably not that important, but it`s better to tie up all loose ends.
