My wife is pregnant with our second child. Our first was a boy. She really wants a daughter, and is very nervous going into the anatomical ultrasound since the biological reality is that each child's sex is a coin flip. I, a mathematics genius, reassured her that luck is on her side. After all, our son was born on a tuesday.
>>16791025Kek
GIRL.
Listen, it's a either a frickin 51.85% chance or a heckin 66.67% chance depending on how you read your sentences okay? I already made a spreadsheet AND asked Grok! STOP MOCKING SCIENCE
>>16791045OP says he already has 1 boy. The probability of 2 coin flips being heads is 0.50 × 0.5 = 0.25There's a 75% probability of the baby being a girl, obviously.
>>16791049Are you dumb?There's only two possibilities here: either its a girl or it isnt. 50/50
>>16791055The likelihood of getting 2 boys is thw same as getting 2 coin flips landing the same in a row. It's 25%, thus the likelihood of a girl is 75%Since OP's son was born on a tuesday it actually becomes 51.85% because of conditional probability though
>>16791049>>16791065I know you're trolling, but llm worshipping bayesian reasoners actually believe this. Please don't bait out another one of these threads
I just asked gpt5 and it said it's 13/27
nice sophon thread
>>16791080Um actually I asked Claude and it said the probability was 6/7
>>16791233Prove it
>>16791025If you have a girl this time, can she swap being the older sibling with your son? The answer clearly hinges on this information>inb4 source
>>16791080>>16791233Llama 4 said it's 2/3
>>16791524>>16791543>mfw 67
>>16791025you should really watch how you form your sentences from now on, because that alters your chances of getting a girl
>>16791065>Since OP's son was born on a tuesday it actually becomes 51.85% because of conditional probability thoughHow does that make any sense whatsoever?
>>16791862Something about how if OP has another son born on another Tuesday, he will retroactively become an identical twin with his older brother and remove one of the male options from a permutation table. Idk I'm not a retarded virgin so I don't follow the logic
>>16791863>>16791025>be me>be mom>really hate my first son>trying another one as replacement> feels like I am about to get birth or something> ITS A monday> pray to my husband that he needs to beat the shit out of me until I miscarage die or give birth> I can't get an identical copy of my second shithead> births just sly of tuesday> a little retarded because of the beatings , just like mama :)> to think he would have been a totally different person if he was born just a few hours earlier.
>>16792053Looks like /sci/ has finally embraced the Dao of shitposting, almost thought it simply could not happen
>>16792069na , I am a filthy turist that only checks here occasionally , sorry anon.
>>16792070Irrelevant. You grasped the problem and implications more thoroughly than anyone else. Me, I just skimmed. Already understood the reasoning and would not take to any discussion, could not write an implicative refutation of the same quality.
>>16791862Look it up on Wikipedia.
>>16791862it's like the Monty Hall problemthe facts never changed but you gained more informationthe difference is Monty hall is clear, and with a clear set of rulesfor this to work in this case you need to ask the questions in a very specific way, and then it's still debatablebasically it devolves into a linguistics problem
>>16791025Imagine getting filtered by conditional probability. Now imagine being this mad about it.
>>16791862>How does that make any sense whatsoever?It doesn't. OP is a retard.>>16792288>>16792310These posters are also retarded and I suspect 95% of the posters ITT don't understand why OP's attempt to parody the picrel problem is flawed.
>>16792312What in earth are you talking about anon, I'm just excited for my daughter
>>16792310>implying you're allowed to switch genomes retroactively after birth like the host lets you switch doorssubhuman analogical intelligence detected
>>16792335>What in earth are you talking aboutYou getting filterer and being mad enough about ti start this thread.
>>16792339>I have 10 children 9 boys and 1 girls>What is the change a random child out of these is a boy?obviously it's not 50% you moron
>>16791049Wrong. That’s wrong.Only on a long term scale does that work, since the first kid is already resovled, it doesn’t change it from ~50/50. Only if you don’t know the first kid does the second kid have better odds.
>>16791025So studies show that when the mother is stressed during procreation/pregnancy it's more likely to result in male offspring, when the father is stressed it is likely to result in a daughter. If your wife wants a daughter you need to give her a comfy life and stress yourself out.
>>16792514>when the mother is stressed during procreation/pregnancy it's more likely to result in male offspring>when the father is stressed it is likely to result in a daughterso if you are a caring father, you're most likely to get a daughter? what a fucking curse lmao
>>16791025if you can figure out how to turn this into a monty hall problem you can juice your oddsmaybe try impregnating her with a 3rd before you know the gender of the 2nd, then observe your male firstborn, now youve got better odds your 3rd is female
>>16791025Superstitious midwit throwing chicken bones and dice. Seeing patterns in cloud formations. Temperature determines pregnancy: Pregnancies during summer, birth in winter, baby will be male.Pregnancies during winter, birth in summer, baby will be female.
There is a 100% chance your child will be a boy. Since your first child was a boy, this one will be a boy as well. There is no prior distribution. nor posterior belief. Only raw data. conditional probability is a lie.
>35 replies>35 posters filtered30 of them aren't even trolling.
>>16792520Well, think about it, if the mother is stressed then it means that the tribe needs more males to improve conditions. When conditions are good and mothers aren't stressed, then the tribe can afford to have more women to grow their population. Same reason why male births in a country will increase during warshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Returning_soldier_effect
>>16791049based gamblers fallacy believer
A group of two male frogs are twice as likely to croak as a group of one male frog and one female frog.Ask a random parent of two kids if they have a daughter, if they say yes then it's a 2/3 probability the other kid is a boy. More mixed groups than pure girl groups. See a random girl with one sibling and ask her what gender her other sibling is. 1/2 probability it's a boy. Two girls means it's more likely for you to bump into one of them to ask in the first place.This has nothing to do with the Monty Hall problem. They are structurally different problems. Anyone suggesting so is an imbecile.Math is about logic. Mathematical conclusions that defy logic should be investigated and explained. Not hammed up in a bizarre attempt punk people's clear intuition about the world.
>>16792053Post tiddies mommy
