>Blaise Pascal is accosted by a mugger who has forgotten their weapon. However, the mugger proposes a deal: the philosopher gives them his wallet, and in exchange the mugger will return twice the amount of money tomorrow. Pascal declines, pointing out that it is unlikely the deal will be honoured. The mugger then continues naming higher rewards, pointing out that even if it is just one chance in 1000 that they will be honourable, it would make sense for Pascal to make a deal for a 2000 times return. Pascal responds that the probability of that high return is even lower than one in 1000. The mugger argues back that for any low but strictly greater than 0 probability of being able to pay back a large amount of money (or pure utility) there exists a finite amount that makes it rational to take the bet.What's the deal with Pascal's Mugging? I don't see how this argument works. Every time the mugger escalates the promised reward, surely the improbability of his keeping the promise escalates at least to the same degree. That would make Pascal reject the offer. The mugger can only escalate the promise to compensate for the unlikelihood of his previous offer, not his current one. I don't see how this process can ever approach a "good enough" offer.
Bump.
>>16797336>You pick box at random. You put your hand in and take a ball from that box at random. >You pick a gold ball at random. You put your hand in the box and take that ball from the box at random.This rewrite doesn't describe anything different.
>>16797138There is a finite possibilityHowever money is the root of all evil andis pointless and a waste of time.Time is better accosted somewhere else.In seed growth. The garden and in your ways.
The expected return is negative in all cases. However, unlike normal gambling the odds are so poor because the thief will never pay and has no incentive to do so. Gambling houses have incentives to pay to promote return customers for a larger total return. Slot machines give small "wins" to promote further gambling in the irrational hope of a larger improbable reward.The thief will never pay out. Pascal is better off keeping his wallet and purchasing a firearm kill the mugger.
>>16797138"Mugged by God: A Non-Gambler's View of Probability" by Blaise "Blaze 'Em" Pascal.Anyone use this as their undergrad Stats text?
>>16797345>t.
>>16797355Oh I get it now. The difference is that you're an Indian who doesn't know how English works.
>>16797138>I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today>I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a 2 hamburgers today>I will gladly pay you Tuesday for 2^x hamburgers todayWhat sort of retarded shit is this? And it even has a wikipedia page lmao https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_muggingWhoever came up with this ate too much lead paint as a kid and anyone teaching this should be catapulted into the sea.
>>16797138>The mugger argues back that for any low but strictly greater than 0 probability of being able to pay back a large amount of money (or pure utility) there exists a finite amount that makes it rational to take the bet.This is the catch. If it was greater than 0, sure.But in this scenario it started at 0, and went into negative inuring a prejudice. The probability scaled, but it scaled with a negative factor.
>>16797370>>16797371It's like no one gets the joke. Wtf is wrong with you people?!? It's an exact rephrasing of the original to show that the existence of god is as likely as an honest thief. That's it.
>>16797397>It's like no one gets the joke. Wtf is wrong with you people?!? It's an exact rephrasing of the original to show that the existence of god is as likely as an honest thief. That's it.
>>16797397What's the wallet you're giving up in the original?
>>16797413Life of sin, moron. Read a fucking book already. Everyone knows this.
>>16797413I don't have a wallet but that's not the point. Dumb Christians demand that I give up my gay porn folder for the sake of some promised afterlife in heaven. This doesn't even make sense. They don't have gay sex in so-called "heaven" so what should I care about it?
>>16797415Do you know how money works, you fucking idiot?>>16797416What does that have to do with the fact that Pascal's wager doesn't involve staking any money?
>>16797413>wait, that big tent revival preacher just wanted my money?!?Kek. He did put on a good show though, didn't he?
>>16797420Wow. You really are this stupid.Seriously, Woz and Musk will Double Your Bitcoin!
>>16797423>Wow. You really are this stupid.>Seriously, Woz and Musk will Double Your Bitcoin!Yes, if you don't notice that there's no wallet in PW, you're really that stupid.
>>16797420>oh, gay sex for money, like i do to make rent>thanks for putting it in terms i can understand
>>16797421Point out where the original says anything about giving your money to a circus barker.
>>16797430>money = ghey sex, i like>wallet = ghey sex, i like>analogy = idk, i do not get
Why does this board hate being /pol/ite so much? Everyone is so rude and mean and vile and cruel and awful to each other. Some /pol/ite behavior goes a long way, FREN.
>>16797431I don't get the point. You like gay sex? So?
>>16797434Why? That has nothing to do with anything anyone on this thread is even talking about.No one owes you any money, faggot. Get lost.
>>16797423He's stupid just like those filthy redneck Christians telling you to give up gooning to tranny porn in exchange for afterlife in heaven.
>>16797435? Like really ... ?
>>16797440>the mugger proposes a deal: the philosopher gives them his wallet, and in exchange the mugger will return
>>16797439>ghey sex for money>wager? mugging? i care not>ghey sex is just hotLet's talk about it another time.
>>16797445Now go read about Pascal's Wager.
>>16797446This is a /sci/ thread lol
I have made the decision to quit 4chan. But just for the next month I will come back once a day to post on one /sci/ thread. Just to offer any intelligent and educated anons this advice:Quit this place. Its toxic and a waste of your time.There are so few good faith discussions, its not worth the effort to find them.The vast majority of posts are made by idiots, samefags, and bots.This thread is an excellent example of how quickly a reasonable OP becomes hopelessly derailed by idiots.There is no Science to be learned or discussed here that is worth the effort of digging through dozens of troll bait threads and hundreds of derailment posts.You can find real science discussion and learning in far better places.Do not waste your time here like I did for over a year. Its addictive for some, it becomes a habit for others, like all social media its any easy trap to fall into.>I like rage baiting retards!That is easy enough, but you are wasting your time and energy instead of being productive for your own benefit.>But occasionally you can find some good ideas!You can find them elsewhere without shoveling a ton of shit out the way to uncover them>Sometimes I just try to explain things to people who are genuinely interested. Chances are they are more likely being deliberately retarded just to waste your time, and there are better places for genuine people to learn.Have you ever wondered why this board is so poorly moderated? Because it is not a science board. Its an idiot entertainment board. If you are happy with that then stay. But I am getting out, I hope you do too.
>>16797447Now point out where PW says anything about giving your money to a circus barker.
>>16797448No, it's a /pol/ thread meant to provide semantic distancing between "wager" and "mugging".Just like Kirk did with "race vs ancestry" and "sex vs gender".
>>16797451You didn't report back on your findings of PM vs PW yet.
>>16797450>I have made the decision to stop drinking>But just for the next month I will keep drinking a shot a day>I'm very smart and you should totally take my adviceLol.
>>16797456I did >>16797413
>>16797454Kirk literally had Spock on his ship and said nothing whatsoever about gender. Wtf kinda drugs are you on lol
>>16797138In this case, the probability is not calculable so it's a worthless conundrum
>>16797397I chose to debate the joke.What now?
>>16797461You failed.
>>16797450The majority of people using this site are depressed losers who seek attention, any attention. They come here to lash out and act smart because in real life they are either ignored or bullied.
>>16797509>You failedRetard.
>>16797520That's already your second post in a day.
>>16797526You are doing God's work Anon. Don't stop.>>16795590
>>16797138The mugger is apparently an intellectual, who is forced in a life of crime due to unfortunate circumstances.Therefore I give him the money in my wallet out of pity.
>>16797567>he thinks powers of 2 are intellectualYou wouldn't survive a day in any major european city lol
>>16797574Is this some sort of joke about Arabs being good at math, cause algebra or something?I don't get it.
>>16797616Arabs aren't any better at math than Ethiopians. Con artists are always better at math than the people they con.
>>16797138It's just a proof that rationalism is no excuse for retardation, and that pascals wager is fucking retarded
>>16798219>It's just a proof ...It's not a proof of anything because this argument doesn't work. I can see that it's trying to take a jab at Pascal's ideas, but it's failing. Given that the mugger will almost certainly never give you anything even if he promises a measly $20 tomorrow (which he could afford to do), why would the relative improbability change favorably wrt. accepting the offer when the mugger escalates to the point of promising impossible things?
>>16798273It doesn't, but behaving completely rationally as a guiding light would obligate you to accept an offer at some point, hence, using a single school of thought as an answer to everything is a bad ideaOr summarised in one of my favourite phrases: All ideologues are retards
>>16798362>t behaving completely rationally as a guiding light would obligate you to accept an offer at some pointWhy?
>>16797138This is amazingly stupid and has nothing to do with Pascal's wager, which is "S'il y a gain, tout est gagné ; s'il y a perte, vous n'avez rien perdu." In this retarded reddit story, you didn't lose "nothing," you lost your fucking wallet. Also, it's impossible to win "everything" because it's one mugger who by definition doesn't own everything.
>>16797450The majority of all questions are just filler baiting.Every site is becoming full of engagement bots, they are the NPCs of social media.
>>16798393https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradoxIdeologues are retards incapable of their own ideas or logic, so blindly following rationalism leads to retarded outcomes.Same goes for all religious type thought, you can do it with capitalism, communism, liberalism, conservatism, whatever, there's always a circumstance, a thought experiment, something that turns blind NPC behaviour into a trap, and this mugger shit is just the st petersburg paradox with the increments being set arbitrarily
