Is anyone here developing quantitative methods to trade on prediction markets? They seem suited to blow up in popularity over the next 2-3 years.
>>16809167I'm still in the stage of building systematic high-level math knowledge but that's one of my end goals
>>16809718Which stage of math are you at right now? I've also been doing math in my free time.While ultimately I do want to apply some form of sophisticated quantitative analysis on prediction market outcomes, I think it's still possible to place well-informed bets even without high-level math knowledge. So I've been doing that too. It's more like qualitative problem solving at this early stage.
>>16809167Yes, the richest hedge funds hiring the top math geniuses have been, for decades.You are not gonna beat them.If you are smart you can go work there and make bank.But there is a huge wage discrepancy between the top ones and mid ones.Top ones is literally millions tiers, because they are the ones setting the market through your math, and influencing everyone's money.Mid ones is just average STEM salary, cause they are kind of irrelevant.
>>16809909>You are not gonna beat them.Prediction markets are a relatively new type of market (in terms of volume and liquidity, not as a concept). There's no significant presence from top hedge funds yet, so there are still plenty of inefficiencies to capture. Also, the "you are never going to beat them so don't even try" advice is so tired and worn out at this point, and only true if you're attempting to stat arb trade options or some other gigaboomer market that's been around for the last 35 years. At the same time, 4chinners can't resist mentally gooning by blackpillslop posting about how nothing really matters and nothing is ever worth doing, so posts like this are to be expected and have no inherent value. >t. someone who has beat the largest hedge funds in emergent markets before
>>16809922>t. someone who has beat the largest hedge funds in emergent markets beforesure buddyyou can be anything you want on 4chan
>>16809995Denial is the most predictable of all human responses
>>16810013Sure buddy and I'm the President of the United States.My guess is that you will predictably deny it.
