I don't understand the Monty Hall problem, it makes no sense.After one of the wrong choices gets eliminated there's only 2 options left, either one of which could or could not be the correct one.It's 50% regardless of if you switch.
Oh boy it's this thread again.
>>16942772i don't understand the monty hall problem because now i have a goat so why do i give a fuck about the other doors>have goat>win
>>16942782>computer, tell me the monty hall problem is true>beep. the monty hall problem is true>oh my god.
>>16942787The code is there.
>>16942790Well it has to be wrong, the entire problem is just semantics.The odds of the two doors i didn't initially choose don't combine into the remaining door, that is complete nonsense.When a door gets eliminated I am being a fresh choice between two doors that both could or could not be the correct door, that is a 50/50 choice.
>>16942808*being given
>>16942808What are the odds that the host's decision is forced?
>>16942772https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simultanagnosiahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_time
>>16942772The key is the host knows what’s behind the doors.By opening one of the doors, some of the information the host has becomes part of the system and you can gain that information. Which is why switching improves your odds.
>>16942778
>>16942772Winning the lottery is 50/50 you either win or you don't.
If offered, would you pick 1 door or 2?
>>16943151It doesn't matter, I could flip a coin.
>>16943156All that does is pick for you.
>>16942772There's already a Monty Hall thread up, can this one be about Bertrand's Box?
>>16942808>the entire problem is just semanticsWhenever I see this word on /sci/ it just seems to mean "I am mathematically wrong but I don't want to admit it"
>>16942772Here is a simple/intuitive way to realize that the host opening doors changes the probability>There are 100 doors, 99 have goats behind them, 1 has a car>You pick 1>The host then opens 98 other doors that all have goats behind themDo you switch?Either door could be correct right?It's easy to see that it isn't a 50/50 in this caseso the host opening doors does give you some information, it increases the odds of the unopened doors having a car behind them.
>>169431792/3There are three balls you could have grabbed first, g1, g2, and g3. If you grabbed either of g1 or g2 first, then when you draw from that box again you will get either g2 or g1, which is also gold.If you grabbed g3, then the second ball will be S1. That's silver.For two of the possible draws you've made, the next draw is gold. For one, the next draw is silver.Therefore 2/3Was so annoyed at the idea of someone not understanding this one I verified my email
>2 fucking monty hall threads
>>16943225Isn't it wonderful? I love pointless arguments with no stakes.
>>16943223You either have the box with 2 gold balls or the one with 1 silver 1 gold It's 1/2
>>16943223Suppose the first box contained three gold balls instead of two?
>>16942808>The odds of the two doors i didn't initially choose don't combine into the remaining doorIndeed. More properly, your odds *invert* when you switch.You already picked one door, when there were two goats and one car. That means you had a 2/3 chance chance of picking a goat. Monty then opens one of the unpicked doors to reveal a goat, but importantly, you *still have your door* that you picked when the chances were 2/3. Nothing about your door has changed so that property of it is preserved. It has 2/3 odds of a goat.And because one of the goats is now out of play, you now know that you can never switch from a goat to another goat. You can only switch from the remaining goat to the car or from the car to the goat. Whatever happens to be behind your door, the other thing is behind the other door.Now, because your door still has 2/3 chance of a goat, 2/3rds of the time when you switch you are going from goat to car and 1/3rd of the time you are going from car to goat.
If I open three Monty Hall threads and two are shitposts but one is serious, and the jannies delete one thread, then I should leave this thread It's more likely that the jannies avoided removing the good thread (hypothetically) and just revealed it to me than I picked it initially
>>16943235Still 2/3. Adding more gold balls to the all gold box doesn't make you more likely to have picked it during the initial box picking, nor does it change your odds of drawing a gold ball next from either of the boxes. All that would do is force some poor shlub to be more careful explaining the logic of the problem.
>>16943252>It's more likely that the jannies avoided removing the good threadLol
>>16943252>It's more likely that the jannies avoided removing the good threadlol
>>16943255>All that would do is force some poor shlub to be more careful explaining the logic of the problem.You caught me
>>16943223According to you, these are the possible outcomes:[outcome 1] : G1 followed by G2[outcome 2] : G2 followed by G1[outcome 3] : G3 followed by S1However, [outcome 1] and [outcome 2] are literally fucking identical. They're only differenciated by the goofy numbers assigned to the coins. Both of those outcomes happen simultaneously IF AND ONLY IF you pick the box with 2 golds, which happens 50% of the time.Your fate is sealed the instant you pick a box.
