UFC 332 picks from previous thread

>Coria +130 vs Rodriguez
Buy low spot on Coria after he massively underperformed as a huge favorite last time. I think this fight is close to a coin flip because Imanol is so hittable, damn near got finished by Borjas which would have been unforgivable. Coria is more durable, I think he can survive a war to get his hand raised at plus money.

>Pinas by KO -185 vs Pulyaev
People will point at Pulyaev surviving 3 rounds against Gautier as reason to take overs or to take Pinas by DEC. I think Pinas stays in his face and puts him out early. Pinas has one of the best 1-2's in UFC and has crazy power for a relatively lean dude.

>Talbott -3.5 -275 vs Figgy
Parlay piece. Don't see how Figgy competes in this one. Talbott is better than him literally everywhere except maybe pure BJJ, which likely doesn't matter in this fight. This is either a Talbott KO or a 30-26 kind of decision with Figgy taking a ton of damage. I don't hate Talbott -600 as a parlay piece either. Barring injury I can't see him losing this fight.

>Walker -150 vs Parkin
Parkin sucks. Perfect example of a blob heavyweight. Low skill but he's at least durable. Walker should be much more athletic, longer, and more dangerous though I don't expect him to stand in the pocket and trade. I think Walker jabs and leg kicks and moves for 15 minutes to win a boring decision. Parkin doesn't have the power or boxing to touch Walker's glass chin.

>>158006903

>McGee +215 vs Nolan
Eric Nolan is terrible. He has OK standup with some of the worst grappling defense in UFC history. All McGee wants to do is clinch and grapple. Old man McGee can get enough control time plus some GnP to cash as a dog. This is a rare kind matchmaking spot by UFC for a veteran fighter's retirement.

>Kopylov vs Gautier over 1.5 -155
This price might get better later in the week since the public will want Gautier KO & unders. Kopylov has a fantastic chin and he'll be faster than Gautier. Based on Kopylov-Robocop, I think Kopylov is a bit gunshy here. Fights defensively and loses a decision in a boring but close fight.

>Khaos +220 vs Soldic
Soldic is getting a ton of hype because he beat DDP years ago. He has one win in the last five years. I'm fully out on this guy until I see a good performance in UFC. Williams has never been KO'd and has great power, he's very live to win as a dog here.

>Green +195 vs Ribovics
Ribovics has good cardio and durability, but he's stupidly hittable and can be sloppy on the feet with his 8 million pillow fisted punches. I think Green will get out-volumed but he'll land the bigger shots and is live to win on damage. Ribovics is not a finisher and he probably won't get finished, so Fight Goes +160 is also a good bet. So is over 1.5 rounds -195.

>Natalia ITD +300 vs Cong
Pretty simple, Cong has shitty cardio and no ground game. Natalia is a decision merchant like so many WMMA fighters, but I think Cong fades hard in the championship rounds and looks for the door.

Newcastle 1915 - territorial star. EW @ 13.00 with bet365. The odds are drifting out, so wait until a few minutes before the race and a bigger price should be available.

Soccer
Poland/Romania BTTS
Faroe Island/Slovakia BTTS

>>158007041
I love sports betting but never got into horses. What do you look for when making a wager?

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I want them skinned alive ... in front of their crying mothers

>>158008149
i thought about this and then just went for O2.5 in rom-pol. i don't think it was the worst idea, though. bosnia is usually good for a BTTS lately and sweden is an overs team

Stop. Betting. Soccer.

alessio milivojevic 1+ passing touchdown @ 1.86 (he plays on michigan state)

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>>158008848
>sweden is an overs team
They are. And we are also, on the receiving end. Now we'll miss 2 (if not 3) of our 'best' centre backs, so i believe we have to try the 7+
3+ is 1.62
4+ @2.50
5+ @4.50
6+ @8.40
7+ @18
Level of confidence: mucho high.
It's the last game, so for a lot of other teams, even the ones who slurped, could be unleashing themselves (looking at France) . I think we're gonna score as well in a 3-4 kind of game. But first , let's wait for the lineups for all these games as you really don't know what rotation they pull. (for adjusting the stake, cause personally i'm betting it regardless)

>>158009722
sharper books like pinnacle and fanduel have taz reddicks receiving yards over/under 50-51 yards @ 1.90/1.90
on bet365 taz reddicks receiving line is way off. taz reddicks over/under 32.5 receiving yards @ 1.86. not a bad bet, but you can also get 50+ receiving yards @ 2.95 on bet365 which is massive value compared to the sharp books 1.90/1.90 "fairer" market price. (he plays on UNLV)

Thinking Northwestern moneyline and Delaware teased down to +3.5. Both are very obvious traps. Delaware probably wins

So France v Belgium
3+ @1.49
4+ @2.20
5+ @3.75
6+ @6.80
7+ @14
With Italy maybe it was bad blood (all the more with Zidane's headbutt) however they are Belgium's bullies and not afraid of them so it eliminates that high stakes tight game that you don't wanna lose factor. And also, being the last game of international break, i just feel it's gonna end in a banger. And the previous game should've had 6 goals. So again:
high confidence

>>158009805
I think Italy is really bad and France has been bad personally.

>>158009796
this is outdated. bet365 has reddick at 48.5

>Northern Ireland v Georgia
Nah, i'm joking bra. :D

WPG-BOS O5.5?

>>158009820
I can't watch all the games, but i remember the commentators praising Italy during their first half rampage against the ottomans saying that, unlike their 2-0 loss to belgium, it's a team that came to play football. Were also the last 2 minutes i watched of italy, with the exception of the 30 seconds when Baris Yilmaz scored for 2-4 and then they took it away at VAR when i changed the channel in disgust

Greece v Germany
expecting 2-4 here desu.
That PAOK stadium gives over vibes. Also predicted overs in the first game, didn't happen, but how many times did i predict something, didn't happen in that game for whatever reason, and then reality proved i was correct when i didn't bet in the next game(s). Best example: i'm saying Napoli should be a reliable team under Conte. First game of the season, 3-0 loss at Verona. Never bet again on them. They win the league.
Following that logic here, Greece has the best generation in 20 years, 'stacked' in attack, Jurgen Cuck has bundes memes, but could be a recipe for a fun game.
3+ @1.69
4+ @2.67
5+ @4.90
6+ @9.30
7+ @20
Where both score, it's 2-2 at half time. Wirtz and co showed their german dna. But at least to play the good guys, not the little black kid and that other guy nobody heard of

>>158009874
Turkeys been really good. I have this momentum counter but they also shot 55 shots in the wc and scored 0

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Happening today
11+ is 35
probably they don't wanna humiliate them and only ends 0-6
but anything below that it's physically and numerically IMPOSSIBLE
5+ @1.71
6+ @2.45
7+ @3.80
8+ @6.20
9+ @10
10+ @19
11+ @35

and then on 6th October they play Uruguay. so either it happens here or there something ridiculous

>>158010064
Not wanting to humiliate is retard strats. Spain beat San Marino but 11 goals this week. Not how it works

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bought of of ucf +11.5 due to injuries

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>>158010213
week 5 props that will get you clv and beat books

anything ~15% or higher is a bet. sometimes i take anything 10% of better

variance is higher on props that are low yardage since the line is o4.5 and it is usually dependent on if they actually get the target
edge can still be there if you look into it first

Ill actually castrate my penis is Delaware doesnt cover +3.5 and Northwestern doesnt win. This is a +700 bet. If it doesnt happen Ill chop my shit clean off. Delaware will come out 10-0 quick

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>>158010123
They play in India. Took 6+ to 11+
Expecting ... 4 from Pedro from Flamengo
And 3 from Estevao
Are you taking it? One for the history books, lad

>>158010268
Brazil-India is the most 7-0 game of all time. Idk what you're asking me but that's the center. Probably 2-0 first half then 7-0

>>158010286
I'll take it but only 2 in first half would be disappointing desu

>>158010238
That's how tipping should be done

>>158010334
Im observing patterns
>>158010344
Its so fucking obvious. Hold me to it. It is what will happen. Real lines are Delaware even (+7 realistically) and Northwestern +3.5 (-3.5 realistically).

>>158010371
Hope you still have a penis in the morning.

>>158010489
Liberty got a field goal. My dick will stay in tact though. It was an incredibly long field goal

>>158010532
kwab

Just texted a friend to borrow some money cause i feel 300 is not enough on this indian over. Had to call him cause he did not respond and said he's gonna send me later. Need to say what happened a few months ago? I desperately asked for money and i received them just after the odds on 7+ dropped from 23 to 21

>>158011614
What "kwab" ? The Northwestern win bails him out

The odds still standing still, but still haven't received the money. Fucking come on

They're here !

>>158011614
He parlayed it buddy

So invested total 500.
6+ -> 350 | profit -150
7+ -> 550 | +400
8+ -> 650 | +1050
9+ -> 800 | +1850
10+ -> 300 | +2150
11+ -> 350 | +2500

I don't like to ask to borrow money. Cause it's humiliating and ultimately you have to give it back, but in my head i'm doing the right thing. If the payout is real, it's a shame not to capitalize on it, just cause you had "dignity" to not step on your ego and borrow money, right?

Odds update
5+ @1.72 -> 1.67
6+ @2.45 -> 2.35
7+ @3.80 -> 3.60
8+ @6.20 -> 5.85
9+ @10.0 -> 9.60
10+ @19 -> 17
11+ @35 -> 32

I could've been the one dropping the odds cause i'm the only guy betting this, the plebs don't even know this game exists

When i said one hour ago that i need the money to reach me asap you thought i was playing a gimmick. "The comedian". I was being dead serious.

have you tried seeking help for you gambling addiction, Romania? do you realistically think you can get rich by gambling?

Got a hold of 220 more (don't ask how)
so updated. invested 720 (400 borrowed)

6+ -> 550 | profit +50
7+ -> 850 | +700
8+ -> 900 | +1300
9+ -> 920 | +1970
10+ -> 300 | +2270
11+ -> 350 | +2620

>>158016484
>have you tried seeking help for you gambling addiction, Romania?
It's sth like 500 euros a month in a addiction center and i'd rather bet them. Serious answer is no, and never will. My plan is to quit in a year times thou cause it has ruined my life.
>do you realistically think you can get rich by gambling?
I used to, but even if i could go on a good run again, i'm afraid it will all end the same. The ideal scenario would be to just bet big stakes rarely, for example: spain to qualify over france in the semis @2. Or spain to win the final @1.67, and then go back to your life. But you just know the next morning you're shaking on league of legends maps

>>158016498
If the math doesn't add up on 9+ i also have a free bet of 5 ron @10

6+ profit -170
7+ 680
8+ 1580
9+ 2550
10+ 2850
11+ 3200

I apologize, these are the official numbers. How much PROFIT i could make on this over

FUMING btw

>>158010286
>>158010334
Holy shit

>>158010237
>>158010213
NCAAF Minnesota Golden Gophers +6.5

i need a leyton goal

You could feel from the first minutes this game doesn't look good because the monkeys didn't feel like playing. They were caught offside 10 minutes and shot only from the middle of the pitch. I feel so humiliated

>>158017707
navy +3?

>>158017921
Already bet AF -2.5

My head is exploding

Well, would've even lost the 5+ @1.71

>>158016484
everything in life is a bet. We are getting gud not for getting rich but for life.

The Argentina vs Burkina Faso is interesting

>The BF team brought a bunch of U23 players and there is only one senior player
>Their charter flight cancelled on them and they had to book another one
>Will arrive in Argentina at about 3pm
-ish AFTER AN 11 HOUR FLIGHT
>They literally have 6 hours to prepare (5 technically, because of immigration, transport, food, etc...)
>Because the U23s had no idea they were gonna be called out of the blue they didnt prepare for a match this late
>The match starting at 9pm which is 1:00am for their brain

Literally the EZ-est money of the year lmao

Cheeky unit on Yamal's hattrick @3.8.

>>158021515
fuck De La fuente bald fraud.

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Why can’t people just trail and follow me!!?

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week 5 cfb recap
11-4
+13.22 units on the season

anyone else like trey mcbride's over?

NFL Cincinnati Bengals -2.5
NFL Green Bay Packers -3.0
NFL NYJ @ CHI Under 43.5