these threads aint the same without the romanian

>>158283031
he is working overtime to lose 12 goals in a game bets

File: 1761932720178839.png (369 KB, 809x1588)

369 KB PNG

model versus vegas
no thread so didn't post the bets and most have moved
something fucky going on with tennessee

>>158283031
Why do you need the Romanian typing 900 words to tell you to bet the over literally every football match

>>158283630
Model says VT-Clemson is even a wider disparity than Tennessee. Injuries?

>>158283803
was a bug on that specific game
model has it VT -4.9 with vegas at clemson -2.5
said he hasn't went through injuries on that game yet so no bet yet

>>158283772
because it bumps the thread

>>158283031
Yeah, i'm working

On a book

NBA Portland Trail Blazers -2.5
NBA Dallas Mavericks +10.5

File: slip1.jpg (174 KB, 1290x1744)

174 KB JPG

>>158280423
Can anyone identify what book this slip is from?

There's an affiliate scammer I'm trying to track down.

>>158286679
need more than that sreenshot

File: slip2.jpg (49 KB, 1290x656)

49 KB JPG

>>158286856
Just have these two.

UFC 333 Saturday 10/24

Good card, looking forward to it. Fights in UAE so they start early USA time. 3 of the last 4 cards have been losers, gotta be due to turn it around

>Gugnon +130 vs Steele
I have not been impressed with Steele in his two UFC fights. He's very hittable and I'm not sure what he does at a high level. I think Gugnon hurts him and probably puts him away, but at plus money might as well just take the ML.

>Santos -120 vs Oki
Oki sucks. He's not UFC level. Santos should be -200 range. See this as a comfortable 30-27 for Santos.

>Vagaev -160 vs Malkoun
These guys are very similar, both wrestle-heavy decisionators. Position-over-submission grapplers without much danger of a finish. Often times the wrestling cancels out and you get a shitty kickboxing fight. I like Vagaev if that happens.

>Chopurov ITD -143 vs Thicknesse
Thicknesse is only on this card because he's Volk's buddy. Chopurov is making his UFC debut so he's unproven but still I think he's way more dangerous and will get Colby out of there.

>Aliev +105 vs Dawson
Mirror image of Malkoun vs Vagaev. Dawson has the strength of schedule and finishing upside, but we've seen dudes like Aliev outwrestle American wrestlers a hundred times in UFC. Give me Aliev to win a boring decision.

>Abus -120 vs Rowston
Not buying the Rowston hype. Tall man defense and gets hit too much. Abus' cardio is always a concern. Still taking him to beat Rowston, probably by finish. Abus is more dangerous and has a massive strength of schedule advantage.

1/2

>>158289119

>Yakhyaev wins round 1 -160 vs Krylov
Don't like laying chalk on a round 1 finish line unless it's this guy lol. At some point Yakhyaev will get fraud checked...Krylov ain't the guy to do it. If you want a better price take Yak & under 0.5 rounds, or even a first 60 second finish prop. Guy has the death touch and very good grappling as well.

>Murzakonov by KO -120 vs Reyes
Just can't trust Reyes' chin. Murzakonov has fast hands for a chubby old guy. He'll find Reyes chin and probably put him away with a basic ass 1-2 or even a jab like he did to Rakic.

>Keita KO +220 vs Pico
Keita's KO line is his moneyline. Pico is miles ahead of him in almost every aspect of MMA. The big exception is durability. If Keita touches his chin with a power shot it's over. Chance to middle this with Keita KO and Pico ML around -130. I don't see Keita winning a decision or via sub.

>Volkov -130 vs Kuniev
I'd put Volkov around -250. Don't know what Kuniev does better than him, maybe pure wrestling. Problem is Kuniev has shit cardio and if he doesn't get a finish he's going to gas hard in 7 minutes. Volkov starts slow then gainst steam as the fight progresses, winning rounds 2-3 for another decision W.

>Temirov by KO +185 vs Kavanagh
Similar to Keita-Pico, the KO line is Temirov's moneyline. He's KO or bust. I'll roll the dice because Kavanagh gets hit so much and we've already seen him heemed.

>Yan -160 vs Merab
Yan's performance last time against Merab was one of the best title fight performances ever. He outwrestled the guy everyone considered the p4p best wrestler, along with outstriking him badly. Yan has leveled up, he's just too good for Merab.

>Evloev -110 vs Volk
Purely fading Volk's age. I don't think Evloev is more skilled, but I do think Volk is on the decline. Seems like everyone is picking Volk, but the line isn't moving. Tells me the smart money is on the challenger. Evloev ITD is +500 on some books...Volk's chin ain't what it used to be

2/2

Some picks

>Inter Escaldes (andorra) v Craiova @1.62
I think Craiova has to win today. FCSB at the start of their banter era played this team and lost the away leg, which Craiova is aware of. They're in decent form and 3 pts are a must

>Ajax v Scatalanta 4+ @2.15
Seems like the obvious over of the day

Tomorrow
>Al Qadsiah v Al Hilal 4+ @2.15
Probably 2-4 with the "firepower" on both sides

Saturday
>Akron Togliatti v Dinamo Moscow @1.65
When they were 10th in the league at the end of last season i said they have a team much better than that and look at them now: league leaders on a like a 9 game win streak. "Akron togliatti" is like the Coventry of the russian league

Going to bet on europa matches for goals there should be some stupid ones but I have no real insight.
However Ottawa vs San Jose looks like goals to me I’m going 9+ and exactly 3 FPG

File: 8877666.jpg (38 KB, 612x408)

38 KB JPG

>Como v Sassuolo 4+ @2.12
The "catenaccio" 0-0 football is dead for more than a decade or so in italy, and these 2 teams have always been over teams, sassuolo for a while now, como recently established, i can see this ending 4-3 tbqh

>Koln v Schalke 3+ @1.60
Could be goals. I'm just presenting the line btw. Not saying it's not a ladder (4+ @2.47 etc .... 7+ @17)

>Chelsea v Tottenham
I was listening to a livestream and the guy said Tottenham plays total football, after their loss to Aston Villa 2-3. He said it was an incredible game. So, yeah, they didn't have "chemistry" at the start of the year, but the squad is great, and Chelsea under Xabi Alonso is an overs team. So it's only fair
4+ @2.27 .... 7+ @14

THE DOG
>FCSB v Rapid @3.45
FCSB, even with the new coach, a vegetable soup. Rapid on the opposite side, a solidified team. Them, Dinamo and Craiova will be the 3 fighting for the title this year

File: Screenshot_2026-10-22-14-(...).jpg (750 KB, 1080x1336)

750 KB JPG

>Gil Vicente v FC Porto @1.50
Business as usual

Saturday
>NEC Nijmegen v Groningen 4+ @2.15
I mean, the team that scored the most goals in the league last year is not eligible for being an overs team?

>PSV v Feyenoord 4+ @1.73
Quite obvious over but line's gone

>Sabah Baku v Qarabag
remember my prediction when they played a few months ago that the previous time they played (2-2) "the chances were back and forth" ? I do.

File: Screenshot_2026-10-22-14-(...).jpg (605 KB, 1079x1098)

605 KB JPG

This is what i said

File: IMG_20261022_142409.jpg (1.01 MB, 1080x3692)

1.01 MB JPG

And how it ended

Btw i never lie or exagerate. When i said "a clear penalty not given" it was exactly that. Everybody in the chat was yelling the same

>>158291340
>i never lie
Except when i said my family is putrid rich...

File: Screenshot_2026-10-22-14-(...).jpg (230 KB, 1080x804)

230 KB JPG

>>158291340
See here? I predicted 8+ and the game ended 7-0 . I commented that he had the chance to pass for a tap in with an empty net and instead shot in the gk

File: 1000001028-compressed-Des(...).webm (1.02 MB, 640x360)

1.02 MB WEBM

>>158291373
here's the footage

AND the reason i posted
>CFR v Dinamo
CFR is like Marseille now. Financial problems, had to sell players, can't make transfers, coach complaining about the team he has. Dinamo, in the best shape in years, and even when they played last year here, in the 1-1, they were vastly superior. @1.95 away win

>Hoffenheim v Leverkusen
could should be goals as a bundes game

and PSG beats Lyon at home @1.47

>Volos v Panathinaikos @1.40

might update :)

>>158289214
Evloev is not beating volk you mong

Newmarket 1640
My Mate Kev EW @ 11.00

>>158292772
Came 5th :-(

File: Screenshot 2026-10-21 at (...).png (37 KB, 688x464)

37 KB PNG

lost on this gem yesterday

>>158292987
This is why you don't bet soccer
The better team frequently fails to get a result

>>158293121
i just bet the goals, not on a winner. the winning club even missed a pen.

>>158293176
Same point stands
Result doesn't match the game
This rarely happens in other sports
Happens in soccer all the fuckin time

UEFA Conference League
Ajax / Atalanta O1.5 Goals (0-0 at half)

1 goal disallowed and should have been a few more - they are gonna open up here

hoffenheim and lyon slurping.

>>158295183
Yeah that was one of mine too

i'm seeing the over recommended for TNF tonight. goes against my usual inclination to bet the under. anyone else have any thoughts on this?

puka bros its over

>>158296429
Primetime games that dont involve buffalo have played under around a 60% clip the last 4 years. Thursday games are usually ugly

>>158296429

It's probably just "Caleb Williams 1st home game back from injury", "Drake Maye/Patriots have found their form", and "it can't be worse than last week's TNF game" combining into one. Honestly, I took the bait, but I'm not proud of it.

File: 20251011_205743.jpg (2.61 MB, 4000x2252)

2.61 MB JPG

>>158280423
How many of you have even made a bet at this desk at Circa?

>>158296701
gotta be kidding me with this shit

>>158297245
i was there hella drunk a few weeks ago late at night
there was a ufc fight in japan or australia or some shit happening at 2am vegas time
they had one teller still at the desk so i bet on ufc fights until sunrise kek
didn't go well, i don't know shit about that sport but it was fun
hitting a +300 knockout bet while shitfaced drunk at 4am was great

>>158303486
found it, it was this fight
there were like 12 people betting fights and i think everyone bet the same thing cuz they all yelled when it happened
round 1 knockout paid +300

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ho6QCilc54

How to bet counter strike
We start from the premise that comebacks happen all the time in sport. A team takes a 2-0 lead, their odds drop to 1.19, underdog has 5.00;
... and you counter that.
I discovered it in a cs game. So the method goes like this
Falcons navi(((1.60 2.20)))
You [can] pick a winner
Falcons @1.60
If they win the first map, their odds on the win drop to 1.15.
And odds on map 2 are like 1.60 2.30;
you wait. it's 9-3 at half. (but you know comes an opponent fav side) navi has 5.50 to win the map (!) , not the match at 9.00.
So you have these bets so far
[1] Falcons ml @1.60
[2] navi win map 2 @5.50
It's 1-0 9-3.
>[1]Falcons ml pays 95% .
>cashed out 95%
and you wait. If falcons win, you lose bet 2. But if navi make the comeback
And say it's 11-12 navi leading last round of regular time.
Could win it here. (but falcons can buy [guns])
So the odds now to win map 2 are
3.00 falcons
1.30 navi
You make a 3rd bet
[3] falcons win map 2 @3
WHILE cashing out the 2nd bet.
>[2] navi win map 2 @5.50
>cashed out 85%

And it's 12-12 over time.
Falcons lead 15-12.
odds map 2
1.05 9.00
4th bet
[4] Navi win map 2 @9
WHILE cashing out bet nr 3
>[3] falcons win map 2 @3
>cashed out 95%

and Navi makes it 15-15.
and when they even take the lead
again a bet on falcons.
[5] Falcons win map 2 @4
WHILE cashing out
>[4] Navi win map 2 @9
>cashed out 90%

>> Bet 5 lost. Navi won the map.

So you don't need to know who wins. First just pick a side. Then go on the comeback. If it happens, swing as the wind blows. And imagine it goes back and forth ... 45 times. Isner mahut.
The trick is to cash out behind and close each cycle.
Works for tennis, or anything volatile.

Ipswich v Forest under 5 cards & under 4 goals - 2.10
Bolton v Middlesbrough over 8 corners, over 2 cards & under 6 goals - 2.05

took O2.5 in waterford-drogheda @ -134

>>158283630
NCAAF Virginia Tech Hokies +3.0

>>158308023
I like it
My mutlis failed but I took O2.5 FHG over 6.5 goals in the voldendam match and a couple of stupid correct score bets that have a chance rn. It’s 4-2 already

File: IMG_0129.jpg (118 KB, 2360x708)

118 KB JPG

>>158308323
>red dot of dopamine

>>158308323
yeah i took O3.25 in the volendam one

File: IMG_0130.jpg (238 KB, 1170x2493)

238 KB JPG

>>158308475
Something to deathride
If it hits I can go harder on another high risk one

FWIW not that I expect anyone to follow im doing dumb correct score bets on Portland Thorns vs North Carolina women’s soccer and will bet on goals in the Chicago vs Houston NWSL as well.

File: 1772174737155393.png (555 KB, 4116x1502)

555 KB PNG

thanks claude for building me a tool that beats closing lines
too bad im limited almost everywhere
these prediction markets are wide open though

>>158308814
they have a lot of github repos for that sort of thing too if you search through the site a bit
https://github.com/DeliciousPipe1326/edge-scanner

>>158309055
yeah def something ill add to it
but it is easily beating player props clv at the moment which means it will make money

limited on all us books except FD and CZRs so really the prediction markets is where ill need to test and if that works make lots of cash

>>158307757
Ipswich bet won. The Bolton game turned into a goalfest!

>>158306520
tennis and counterstrike odds get really juicy when a like 1.50 or shorter prematch favorite is suddenly being pushed to the brink. when a tennis dog is up 5-4 and about to serve for the set, or when a cs2 dog is able to keep it 6-6 in the first half and then win and convert the pistol round and are suddenly up 8-6 a sharp book like polymarket or pinnacle will fade the prematch favorite quicker than the soft books. you will find opportunities to bet on a soft books dog that is a sharp books favorite.

>>158309282
i'm seething. i was going back and forth on the bolton match and some northern ireland championship match.

tulsa-army? tulsa ML is -118

>>158309556
bet them +1.5 on the sheet at the top
has tulsa -6 so id say its fine
there is variance with academy schools since they limit possessions so much

>>158309668
the thing that's sticking out to me is that army hasn't been good against the run and tulsa is 4-0 when they can average 4 yds a carry

hi guys hope everyone has a good weekend just a quick reminder to never bet soccer because it's the worst sport to bet all right see yall later

>>158289214
You have full faith?

File: IMG_0131.png (173 KB, 614x1328)

173 KB PNG

>>158308642
Well they sucked but im going to turn this into a Romanian blog now because women’s soccer started here. I have over 4.5/ 5.5 main bets so it can only improve really with these perfect scores operating as a hedge

>>158315287
Ok 5th goal hit ideally no more goals
Canberra were basically out of the league in the offseason but for some reason they were favourites for this? Kek

>>158315294
RIP over 5.5 hits but the $1 scores die
Good way to play it i reckon with these dumb leagues

>>158303486
>>158303564
That's bad ass. I gotta try that some time. I don't gamble but I do wanna go watch someone have the time of their life at 3am Circa. I can sit in those stadium seats all day

aston villa v man city - over 2 cards, over 8 corners, under 6 goals @ 2.10

fuck tulsa
sold that game

>>158317117
another winner. i'm kicking myself that i didn't add in haaland to have a SOT.

Scottish Premier: Falkirk ML
EPL: Arsenal/Everton O2.5

Dundee United V Aberdeen - over 6 corners, over 2 cards
Rangers v St Johnstone - over 1 card, over 5 corners
St Mirren v Dundee - over 4 corners, under 6 cards
Falkirk v Kilmarnock - over 2 cards

acca 4 fold @ 2.41

cardiff just blew this fucking over missing a pen.

these scottish games are very well behaved

File: IMG_20261024_192609.jpg (238 KB, 1080x1662)

238 KB JPG

These 3 favourites in LoL are getting it done
>1.79 on superbet

File: IMG_20261024_192535.jpg (248 KB, 1080x1631)

248 KB JPG

But on Toto
>2.17

I've been doing really good on NHL over/unders this season. Today I got
>Sharks@Bruins u6.5
Sharks are bottom 10 in expected goals. Bruins are starting goalie J. Swayman (.928 sv%). Bruins are 8-3 to the under when coming off 3 previous overs since last season.

>Golden Knight@Blue Jackets o6
Knights are top 10 in expected goals. Blue Jackets are starting goalie C. Talbot (.822 sv%). Knights are 9-3 over so far this season.

File: 1780772994200830.png (335 KB, 3313x1838)

335 KB PNG

clanker still getting clv

>>158320590
I was considering overs in the rangers and TBL matches what do you think

free money on bet365
demar derozan under 0.5 threes made @ 2.30
demar derozen 1+ threes made @ 2.00

>>158328335
On the same book? How much are you usually able to put in on these arbs?

>>158328525
if you arent restricted you can just hammer them. on bet365 for bigger leagues like the nba i can only bet about $20 on unders, but i can still bet like $50-100 on overs but it depends on the odds.

>>158328525
plenty but youll get limited quickly
365 won't let me bet more than $1