You are in Professor Oak's labThere are 20 Pokeballs on the table and he states 19 of them contain Chicorita and 1 of them contains CharmanderUpon selecting a Pokeball 18 Pokeballs open up to reveal 18 Chicorita leaving two Pokeballs left and Professor Oak says you can change your decisionDo you switch your choice?
>>59216903yeah id switch
>>59216903Yeah i choose a female from the other 18 chicorita and start fucking her in front of the other 17
>>59216903Can I take all 19 Chikorita and leave behind the Charmander?
>>59216903cute bait thread
Not before first shouting "WHO WANTS TO GO LIVE NEXT TO A VOLCANO!" and whatever one cringes away, pick the other one.
>>59216903No i want chikoritaAlso this probability thing only works if whatever method opens the pokeballs only ever opens non charmander balls. If you dont know that, switching or not makes no difference.
>>59216903Isn't this like the Monty Hall problem and it's always better to switch?
>>59216903It's not gay to fuck male Meganium as a guy.It's gay to fuck male Charizard as a guy.
>>59216903>Turns 180 degree.>Leaves.>Heads to Pokémart.>Buys some Pokéballs.>Goes to route 7.>Catches MALE Vulpix.That's my starter now.
>>59218083This is the way.
>>59216903I'd just kill myself right then and there
What is this thread supposed to be?
>>59219590Ragebait.The chance to get Charizard or Shitcorita is still 50/50 regardless if you switch your choice or don't.
>>59216903Charmander is literally my baby, but I would feel bad for Chikorita considering that was my Johto starter I feel like I'm one of the only people that ever picked her
>>59216903i switch, ofc
>>59216903This is that stupid envelope thing. I think you're meant to. They say "gambler's fallacy" is wrong so then what's this huh?!
>>59220111It's apparently not. It's the envelope problem thing but reworded with Pokémon. Apparently you can mathematically prove it's better to swap (if I remember right). I know I don't get why either.
>>59221473You had a 95% chance of picking a Chikorita at the start, and removing the other Chikoritas from the pool after you pick one doesn't change what you already have. From there you can either keep your 95% chance of a Chikorita, or you can swap it for a 50% chance of a Chikorita. The envelope thing doesn't really apply here because that would be you being given the choice or two Pokeballs from the start and being offered the chance to change after your first choice. As far as I understand, the envelope problem shows that it's better to swap if you use simpler math, but if you use more complex math then it shows no difference.
>>59220111>The chance to get Charizard or Shitcorita is still 50/50 regardlessIf you don't switch, you only have a 1/20 chance to get Charmander, if you do switch you have a 19/20 chance to get Charmander. It's just Monty Hall with more doors.
>>59221757Its monty hall if 18 doors just opened by themselves. Which isnt monty hall.The door have to be specifically opened with knowledge of which one has the prize, or switching doesn't gain you anything.
>>59221768The three assumptions of Monty Hall are:>The host must always open a door that was not selected by the contestant.>The host must always open a door to reveal a goat and never the car.>The host must always offer the chance to switch between the door chosen originally and the closed door remaining.All of these assumptions have been met in this scenario making it a Monty Hall situation. Oak is never stated to have opened the pokeballs randomly, and he would know which ball has the Charmander. Therefore if you swap you have higher odds.
>>59216903NO BECAUSE I WANT CHIKORITA
