>Today: SPHEREx analysis of 3I/ATLAS likely places diameter at 28.6mi instead of 7mi>t. Avi LoebA 28.6mi 50/50 ice water/silicate object sublimated from 2.5au to 0.8au produces 300,000 0.25mi fragments. ~0.1% to 1% of objects are likely to strike, so 300 to 3,000 fragments.At a velocity of 66km/s when passing within a MOID < 0.015au, each object has a force of ~26,627 megatons TNT. 8m to 80m megaton TNT impact likely. Affected zone leaves 300 to 3,000 14 to 20 km wide craters spread across 7% to 70% of Mars. Planet-wide bombardment possible with a scarred area of 150,000 km2 to 3,000,000 km2. Secondary craters likely affecting 100% of Mars Surface, ejecta rays visible by amateur astronomers, regolith churning.Potential permanent thickening of atmosphere by 10%. Sunlight reduction could reduce temperatures by 5 to 50 degrees celcius. Paradoxically, the impact heat could trigger a greenhouse effect, leading to transient lakes and hydrothermal systems. >This event has never been detected in the history of the Solar system. The closest "analogy" known is Shoemaker-Levy 9, but scaled up x270 more energetic with a x143 affected zone.https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=cV1NGS4uOiw
>>41018117>sublimated from 2.5au to 0.8auIs earth projected to intersect the fragment zone while fragments are still present?
>>41018573The closest we ever come to the core is ~1.75au on the other side of the Sun. Mars rover is done for though.
>>41018573We might get some cool backboard action on Jupiter for the 3 pointer with some fragments though.
>>41018117Even that is kinda coincidental isn't it? Comet happens to terraform mars for us right before we're about to start going there? Sus. Good kind though I suppose.
>>41019229Yeah but if it is ejecting any kind of debris we may pass through a cloud of it when we come back around or even years later or however long it takes to reach our path around the sun. We just have tp hope it doesn't shed anything like that as it passes through that could survive the trip to reach earth's path.
