A grand laugh
>>288466216100% by using my incredible sleight of hand I put the gold ball I just picked back in and pull it out againThis is the Liar Game™ after all OHOHOHO
>>288466216Gold is denser than silver, so while you're grabbing one, you feel both, 100% if they were the same weight, 0% if one felt lighter
I can't believe it... Nao... she...... lied!?!?!?
Last week, someone said>she got this in the bagDamn that anon. I love this series
I don't understand how the card game was rigged. if she draws a card and it's a joker she puts it back right? so how is it not 50-50?
>>288466350Alright somebody whip out the official Nao apology form.
>>288466193why did i think this already got an anime? apparently it was a live action. anyway having always heard about this manga but never having read it the feMC is just too goddamn retarded and naive shes borderline ruining the show for me and i know thats the point of her character but fuck man
>>288466350sonna...!!
>>288466350
>>288466213>>288466235>went from I WON to I LOST in 30 secondsLMAO
why did this get an anime 90 years later? always surprises me when series like this get animated much later. This also seems like a show in the same vein for me as things like Trillion Game and The Fable they get near subpar adaptations and since there are no superpowers , not much lewdity or gimmicks most people skip them. Adult core i call them
>>288466372It boils down to the fact that if when you draw it out of the bag, if it's face up then it's a "miscount" and you play again. Since you can't draw the double backed one face up, that changes the odds into the double back's favor.
>>288466372Once the cards are dumped out you redo the draw because the Joker face is showing.
>>288466216Is it not 50/50? Am I dumb?
>>288466494Took me a while to understand that. They made a bad job of explaining it. It is super retarded to play the game if you know that. It shouldn't matter what side you draw.
>>288466456i assume the live actions were a success so now they are trying a shoestring-budget anime
Nao getting tricked by the same person AGAIN made me burst into laughter
>>288466526Well done, you've figured out Nao is in fact a certified retard
>>288466463>>288466494oh that changes everything. how didn't Nao realiz- nevermind.
>>2884662162/3
>>288466456The manga is having a sequel.Also Squid Game inluence.
>>288466521Imagine there are six worldlines, one for each of the balls, where you pick the respective ball.Since the problem states the ball we picked is gold, we know we're not in any of the three worldlines where we picked a silver ball.In the remaining three worldlines, the other ball is gold in two of them and silver in the third. So the chance of us being in the first two worldlines is 2/3.
>>288466536yea thats it but wasnt the live action also a long time ago?>>288466616when did the sequel start?
>>288466628that was also my face when that happened
>>288466616>The manga is having a sequel.is it any good?
>>288466678>>288466707You can use the internet and figure it out.
>>288466677but there are only 4 worldlines because the balls are identical
>>288466727>there's no sequelLIAR GAME
>>288466890So if there are 99 red balls and one black ball in a bag, according to you the chance of drawing a black ball is 50-50 ?
>>288466897KINO
>>288466926>so according to you *unrelated shit I just made up*no
>>288466897>A sequel titled "Liar Game: The Last Game" was launched on February 25, 2026, continuing the story of Nao Kanzaki as she faces a new game. This sequel follows the original manga series, which concluded in January 2015.
ZAWA ZAWA
>>288466953gottem
>>288466953wtf he didn't liered??
>>288466943Retard."There are only four worldlines because the balls are identical".So by that logic, a bag containing 99 red balls and one black ball has only two worldlines because all the red balls are identical.
>brainlets getting probability-mogged
>>288466981how you doing, Nao?
>>288466216The all silver box is ruled out already. That leaves two boxes. Removing one gold ball from each (representing the one in my hand) that leaves one gold ball in one box, and one silver ball in the other box. So my answer is a 50% chance.
>>288466350it truly is a... Liar Game
>>288466193lmao but now nao needs to cough up 490Mit's really cool how in these games, the value of objects are radically different depending on your situationIt makes you appreciate the fairness and convenience of marketsAnother example that comes to mind is how in the first arc of Kaiji, Kaiji has to pay to get cards from certain people, whereas with other people he can charge to take away their cardsI wonder if you could make an interesting game out of a scenario where you had a horde of NPCs that also did trades (i.e. a market) but weren't subject to the same constraints as you. I suppose it would just simplify tons of things and make it boring, especially if the market was too big to be influenced by the players.Games with assymetry (i.e. different players have different roles/capabilities/win conditions) would also be interesting, since maybe it could model the way institutions interact.
Contraband would be a fun arc to see
>>288466616nooooo don't introduce stupid death game elements
>>288466998I don't see how the fact that there are 2 outcomes means they have to be equally likely
>get off me nigga
Her toilet rendezvous with that guy took 5 minutes of screen time. She needed to do that with 7 guys.So 35 minutes talking (minimum), plus whatever time it takes to set up a meeting.All of that within a 60 minute time limit.Probably worked great in the manga, but didn't translate well to the anime.
>>288466727I could only find the 1st and 3rd chapters, but apparently like 10 chapters have come out
>>288467028sonna... how did you know it was me?
>>288466677Are you retarded? If you pick a gold ball, you know your box doesn't have two silvers. So either you have the 1 and 1 box or the 2 gold. That's 50/50
will we ever know??
>>288467099>So 35 minutes talking (minimum), plus whatever time it takes to set up a meeting.>All of that within a 60 minute time limit.35 is less than 60
bros... I know it's an unlikely possibility, but maybe... Nao LIED about being stupid? all this time? maybe WE were sonna'd??
>>288467074I have been talking about N worldlines with the assumption that they're all equally likely 1/N, because the point of thinking about worldlines is to make the math easier. If you want to talk about worldlines with different likelihood, then fine, it amounts to the same thing in the end, but it ends up needing the exact same probability math we were trying to avoid.So sure, if we want to talk about worldlines that are not necessarily equally likely, then the 99-red-1-black case has two worldlines where the red wordline has a probability of 99%. And the original gold-gold problem has two worldlines (gold-gold, gold-silver) where the first has 2/3 likelihood (because there are two ways to pick the first box and only one way to pick the third).
>>288467140I bet you also think the monty hall problem is 50/50 right?
>>288467099She could've just offered five minute handjobs
Don't get how niggers are having a hard time understanding.There's four possibilities for which face will be up when drawn.But one of them is cancelled by the game's rules, leaving three possibilities, two of which are in Fukunaga's favor.Cancelling a possibility changes the odds.It's like flipping a coin, but every time it lands tails, you say it doesn't count. No shit it's not a 50/50 game.
>>288467099yes, but she didn't have only 1 round to do it.Because she postponed the actual vote transfer to a vote in the future (vote 9), she could spend multiple rounds cajoling everyone. She had the time time remaining before the 7th vote, the 8th round and the 9th round, so about 2hr30mins.Of course in the meantime she had to maintain that air of desperation hence the acting at the end of each round.
>>288467047>lmao but now nao needs to cough up 490MThe contract says she needs to pay up before the 10th vote.Given what she said this episode, you have 3 minutes to pay up otherwise the masked men get involved. Unsure what was said in the introductory episode regarding this timeline, but going with 3 minutes.The game ends after the 10th vote.The period she needs to pay in overlaps with when the game finishes, so she doesn't need to pay shit.Or, she can agree to sell them some of her votes in exchange for cancelling the debt, etc.
>>288467140Now try to actually read the post you replied to.
>>288467204Monty Hall is one item behind each door, there's no reason to choose the door you're given information about. It's fundamentally different
>>288467238yeah she's bought the votes with 1 hr of credit so she can do tons of maneouvreingit's a laughably ridiculous state of affairs to be in the red by that much. Look at how much she was crying in the first game over 100M.I wonder if Nao will feel any kind of pressure or tension about whether she could resolve all those obligations.I'm only pretending to be anime-only.>>288467230it could be a troll
>Nao does something smart (with help)Now can you stop bitching about her not getting development?
>>288467265I didn't say it was the same, I'm just making assumptions about your intelligence
>>288466677The worldlines were rigged that you already draw a gold ball, so half of them never existed to start with.
>>288467315tbf i think she did pull her weight in the second gamethis is indeed the first time she's the main agent pulling off her own scheme thoughI wonder if she independently came up with the talking points she gave to each person.
>>288467329Kek you realized it was a stupid comparison for you to make. The real question would be if you should switch boxed. But if you draw from the same one, your odds are 50/50
>>288467140>>288467371zoomer reading comprehension
>>288467437Explain why the box with two silvers is relevant
Like I said: Expect this line in every single game.
>>288467469i'm excited for when nao says it
If I'm not mistaken, next episode is gonna be really good.
>>288467465I'll tell you after you tell me what the second sentence of >>288466677 says.
>>288467515If we know we aren't in a silver worldline, we're either in the 2 golds box or the 1:1 box. So our odds are 50/50Now explain why you think the 2 silver box matters
>>288467537Nope, I already said you first have to tell me what the second sentence of >>288466677 says.
Imagine how easily it would be to trick Nao into sex... such is the Liar's game
I'm still surprised how bad people are at conditional probability.
>>288467566The second sentence says that we're not in a worldline where we picked a silver ball.
>>288467620Well done! So now does that answer your question of the relevance of the silver worldlines, zoomer-kun?
>>288467644If we're not in a worldline where we picked a silver ball, we're either in the 2 golds box or the 1:1 box because the 2 silver box no longer matters you fucking retard. I bet you think we could pick from another boxPut your glasses on, old man
Is it really that hard to understand that the chance of pulling a gold ball from a box with two gold balls is higher than the chance of pulling a gold ball from a box with one?
The important point is that drawing either of the two gold balls in the first box represent two different outcomes, not the same outcome>draw ball A -> other ball is gold>draw ball B -> other ball is gold>draw ball C -> other ball is silverThe other thing is that you're twice as likely to have drawn the first gold ball from the first box
The presumption that there are three worldlines remaining because of the box containing two gold balls is wrong. We already have one of the gold balls in our hands, so there is no point factoring in a worldline where we chose the other gold ball first, because that simply is not possible. There is only one other gold ball that could possibly be picked at the time of the question being asked, which translates to one worldline. Why would the other worldline where we chose the other gold ball in the two gold box be a factor when one of those balls is literally in our hands when the question is being asked?
>>288467644I think you're overestimating his age, conditional probability is high school level. He must be gen alpha if he hasn't learned it yet.
>>288467684>>288467721gen alpha reading comprehension
What if they're lying about the number of gold balls?
>>288467032Four options on the ball you pull:Box A, ball 1 (gold)Box A, ball 2 (gold)Box B, ball 1 (gold)So you have a 2/3 chance the ball you picked was one of the ones in box A.
>>288466350Stop corrupting my retarded wife!
>>288467773Who would do such a terrible thing
>>288466216For people having trouble getting their head around it, try thinking of it this way.
>>288467787Yeah but you have to stay in the same box. So the remaining ball is either a gold or a silver
>>288467773sonna...
>>288467799I don't know how this will help them understand. They'll just say it's 1/3.(Correct answer is 1/2; six worldlines -> prune the two where you started with silver -> of the remaining four two have other ball gold and two have other ball silver.)
>>288467804When you pick that ball, you're going from 6 options (either of the two balls for each of GG, GS, SS) to 3 ([G]G, G[G], [G]S). 2 of those 3, the other ball is also gold.
>>288467700The chance of pulling the first gold ball is fixed though. You always pull it no matter what.Think of it in lotto terms. There are 52 balls, the lotto draws 6 balls and then tosses a coin (heads/tails).>Your lotto ticket is: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, heads.>The lotto draws the balls 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6>They are about to flip the coin. What is the likelihood that you win?Anons here are arguing that it's a 50,000,000/1 chance that you'll win instead of 50/50.
>tfw so happy I dropped the manga when I read it 5+ years ago
Here's a python simulation: https://pastebin.com/LMshkBacNote how I use the formula P(B|A) = P(B and A) | P(A) to compute P(second ball is silver | first ball is gold).
The masculine urge to live in a village populated by Naos, take care of them, and make sure they don't accidentally sell themselves into prostitution..
>>288467719>Pick box A -> The other ball is gold>Pick box B -> The other ball is silver
>>288467898>[G]G, G[G]I get that, but both of these are drawing a gold ball on your second draw. I understand that they're different balls, but the question is asking about your probability of drawing a gold ball. I understand that your probability of ending up with 2 gold balls is 66% overall if you're first draw is fixed to be gold. But that's not what the question is asking. The question is, if your first draw is gold, THEN what is your probability of the second being gold. That is, it's asking from the probability at the start of move 2. At that point, there are only 2 outcomes
>>288466216Other anons keep going on about conditional probability, but I think the boxes are more important than the balls.You either picked the box with two golds or the box with one gold and one silver. 50%.
>>288467972You would die of stress within a week.
Nao WON
>>288468038>I think the boxes are more important than the balls.Being fixed to a box fundamentally changes the question. All of the math ITT is made with the assumption that you get to move to another box, but you don't. You're fixed to a box and a first choice
Don't like this deceitful Nao.Why was Akayama even allowed to take part? Does he count as an item that Nao could bring?
>>288468115Why shouldn't he be allowed to be in that run down bowling alley? America is a free country isn't it?
>>288468115there were no rules about getting assistance unlike the last game i guess...
[code] (() => { const NUM_TRIALS = 1000000; let two_golds = 0; for (let i = 0; i < NUM_TRIALS; i++) { const chosen_box = Math.random() * 3; if (chosen_box < 1) { two_golds++; } else if (chosen_box < 2) { if (Math.random() * 2 > 1) { i--; } } else { i--; } } return two_golds / NUM_TRIALS; })()[/code]>0.66chosen_box is in the range 0..3. Interpret 0..1 as first box, 1..2 as second box, 2..3 as third box.For the first box, we have two golds, so increment two_golds.For the second box, it depends on whether we drew the gold ball or the silver ball, so do another Math.random() for it. If it's 0..1 we drew a gold ball and the other one is silver, so don't increment two_golds. If it's 1..2 we drew a silver ball, so ignore this trial.For the third box, we always draw a silver ball, so ignore this trial.
>all the anons who said nao is stupid cant realize why the card game was unfairjustice
>>288468115Where in the rules does it say you can't have your boytoy give you advice?
>>288468106>All of the math ITT is made with the assumption that you get to move to another box, but you don't.zoomer reading comprehension
>>288468197Again, nobody is disputing that the aggregate probability is 66%. But the question is about if your first move is a gold and you have to stay in the same box. Your code doesn't account for that
>>288468094She's so cute when she's smug. I couldn't possibly be mad at her.
>>288468247>Your code doesn't account for thatzoomer reading comprehension
>>288468197Your script is wrong because we already know the first ball is a golden ball you fucking retard.
Stitches.
>>288468283What do you think the i-- is doing, you fucking retard?
>>288467437>>288467738>>288468223>>288468266Unc crashing out rn
>>288468306You shouldn't be considering the third box in the first place, you script kiddie.
Is this a math problem or a semantic problem?
>>288468197>so ignore this trial.Can't ignore it.Anons saying 2/3 are correct IF it was possible to draw a silver ball first, but it's not.>There are two boxes, each containing 1,000,000 balls.>Box A has 1,000,000 gold balls>Box B has 1 gold ball and 999,999 silver balls>You select a box at random and pull out a gold ball>What is the probability your second ball will be gold?Even if the odds of drawing a gold ball are astronomical, you're guaranteed to draw it first so it becomes a straight 50/50.
>>288468199In my defense, I didn't catch the rule about the face being a misplay.
>>288468321Again, what do you think the effect of doing i-- is?
>>288466216This is basically the probability of picking the box with two gold balls so 1/3.
[code](() => { const NUM_TRIALS = 1000000; let two_golds = 0; let first_gold_second_silver = 0; for (let i = 0; i < NUM_TRIALS; i++) { const chosen_box = Math.random() * 3; if (chosen_box < 1) { two_golds++; } else if (chosen_box < 2) { if (Math.random() < 0.5) { first_gold_second_silver++; } } } return two_golds / (two_golds + first_gold_second_silver); })() [/code]Since anons don't get what the i-- was doing, here's a different version that doesn't use it. The result is still 0.66 as it should be.
Hehehe... You guys don't get it... There's a surefire way to win this gold ball game!
>>288468199Figured it out before they started playing, but they really should've shown her drawing the joker face up sometime and then putting the card back into the bag for a redraw. Poor storytelling.
>>288466350To be fair, her innocence and fragility makes her the perfect person to be a liar
...but the next ball I pick can't be the gold ball I already have in my hand...
What are your chances of drawing a gold ball?
>>2884684352/3.
>>288468480my fuarking hero...
>>288468199tbf the card game is a lot simpler than the gold/silver ball puzzle
All the anons in this thread proving Nao is actually smarter than them cause at least she could understand conditional probability after it was explained to her.
PROTECT NAO AT ALL COSTS AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Fukunaga still had a 66% chance to win even after the card was marked.
>>288468577Nao is just your typical lying whore nowadays.
>>288468592My Fukunaging hero
>Nao is smarter than /a/Not like this...
>>288468347Can you even read?You're supposed to assume a box and ball was already selected, which your code does not.>oh but I undo the loops where silver is-But you do the other ones from scratch, when you shouldn't. Your script doesn't represent the actual problem, kiddie.
"A silver ball, a can of gold spray paint and aradioactivesource are placed in a sealed box. If an internal radiation monitor such as aGeiger counterdetects radioactivity (a single atom decaying), the spray paint can is pressed down, releasing the paint, which changes the ball from silver to gold. If no decaying atom triggers the monitor, the ball remains silver. Mathematically, thewave functionthat describes the contents of the box is a combination, orquantum superposition, of these two possibilities. Yet, when one looks in the box, one sees the ball either silver or gold, not both silver and gold simultaneously. This poses the question of when exactly quantum superposition ends and reality resolves into one possibility or the other."
Biggest tard ITT >>288468603
>>288468391This is also wrong for the same reason described here >>288468629
>>288466350Is this some kind of...Liar Game?!
>>288468643
you dont even need to understand conditional probability. conditional probability just makes the math easier because it gives you the equation to start with. even without it you can bruteforce it by just imagining and counting every possible outcomefirst box has two gold balls A Bsecond box has one gold ball C silver ball Dthird box can be ignored because i didn't draw silver ball and that box only has silversoutcomes are AB and BA and CD. not DC because i know i didnt pick silver firstso AB and BA give me two golds success, and CD gives me one gold one silver failure. so two thirds chance of success
>>288468603>It's a Nao thread an anon still outperformssasuga
>>288468678>third box can be ignored because i didn't draw silver ball and that box only has silversNo it can't.
Why do retards still reply to baits like this? >>288468734
>>288468715God she's beautiful
>>288466235>When I learn that people lie in the Liar Game.
>>288468626She only recently started lying and this is a survival game case, she's a pure angel when she's not stuck in a room with men/trannies taking her money
>Nao goes into the toilets with a man and exchanges money for servicesBit in this.
>she>her
>>288468480ENTER
>>288468480lol i guess LGT had insufficient security for the loser's game
>>288468603You are correct in the sense that probability is a measurement of uncertainty. From Fukunaga's PoV the chance is roughly 66%, but from our and Nao's PoV it would be 0 since Nao has knowledge that let her discriminate between the cards.
P(A|B) = P(A & B) / P(B)A = second drawn ball is goldB = first drawn ball is goldA & B = both drawn balls are goldP(second gold | first gold)= P(both gold) / P(first gold)= P(first box out of three boxes) / P(picking a gold ball from the original six balls)= (1/3) / (3/6)= 2/3
>>288468863>/a/nons who couldn't be as smart as Nao
>It's over...
>>288468932The last box was already removed from consideration and you can't change boxes.
Correct answer is 1/3. You either picked the right box or you didn't.
Someone post the sleeping beauty problem so we can get some real probability related seethe going.
>>288468990Is that the one who you figure out which dwarf is the father?
>What is the probability that the next ball you takeReminder that the question is asking you the probability from the time AFTER you have made the first draw. The question is not "if your first draw is gold, what is the probability that the second draw is also gold?".
>>288469030>the probability from the time AFTER you have made the first draw>if your first draw is gold, what is the probability that the second draw is also gold?These two things mean the same thing. The second also means "AFTER the first draw".What the question isn't asking is "What is the probability that you draw two gold balls?" As in, without having drawn any balls yet, what is the probability that you will draw two gold balls. The answer to that would be 1/3 because it is the probability of picking the first box for both draws.
>A-are you lying in a Liar Game? It can't be...
Stop spamming images for fucks sake.
Last stitch.
>>288469096The question is asking you the probability from the time after the first draw is made.
>>288466216these things are never solvable because the Jeet-tier english introduces too much ambiguity
>>288468969i dont understand you mean. i gave the working. what part do you think is wrong and what is your correction
On this episode of Tranny Game.
>>288469128Smugiyama-sama...
>>288469130Correct. That's what I said as well.>The second also means "AFTER the first draw".Again, I'm saying that>"if your first draw is gold, what is the probability that the second draw is also gold?"is the same as asking "Given that you have already drawn one gold ball, what is the probability that the next ball you draw from the same box will also be gold?"
>>288469141What I mean is that it's 50% because you've already taken the first golden ball, it's already in your hand. You can't change balls or change boxes. The ball that was picked has already been selected.
Not gonna lie, I was kinda hoping Nao would get out of this predicament on her own, without Akiyama to the rescue. But I guess it's too early for that.
>>288469190the working i gave is correct and gives answer 2/3. you cannot get 1/2 from it. it is simple equation. if you think it should be 1/2 then shouw your working
>>288469010Sleeping Beauty participates in an experiment where she agrees to be put to sleep. After she has gone to sleep, a fair coin is tossed, if the result is Heads she is only woken up on Monday, if the result is Tails she is woken up on Monday and then Tuesday.After being woken up on Monday, Sleeping Beauty is given a drug that causes Amnesia, making her forget that she woke up on Monday. When awake she is not allowed to look at a calendar or otherwise acquire knowledge about what day it is. She does not know if it is Monday or Tuesday. When she awakes, the researchers conducting the experiment ask: "How likely do you think it is that the coin landed on Heads?". What should she answer?
>>288469193At least she had more agency in this episode.>>288469240Your working is wrong, since the ball that was selected is already set in stone. Sorry!
To the 66% fags, what would happen if you were wearing a special magnetic (mercury?) glove that attracted a gold ball when you drew the first ball so it was always guaranteed to be gold?Does that change anything?
Wow, I had no clue that this got an adaptation until now.How are you guys liking it so far?
>>288469240See >>288468435.
Best girl.
>>288469193You can tell this is from a boomer manga given how sexist it is.
Not a "she" until he puts the wig back on.
>>288469344The animation is dogshit and the direction is nonexistent, but the source material is intrinsically very entertaining and meme'able, making it the best anime of this season, which to be fair is a pretty low bar.
Nao has fallen. She used to be pure, now she's using her wiles to trick men just like the rest of them...
>>288469372dilate
288469364You're honorable enough not to attack until invited. So what's the local plate special at that diner? DO THEY KNOW OF IT NOW?
>>288466567"WhyamIstostupid".jpg>>288466494I keep thinking the anime designs look weird but they really are just accurate to the manga
Good news Liarbros, the anime is climbing up the ranks from the rock bottom >>288407586
>>288469412>best anime of this seasonAirs tomorrow, sorry.
>>288469331The 66% number only happens if the first ball is known to be gold in the first place. The mechanism of how it came to be it is irrelevant; we already know it's gold because that's the situation that the problem started with. The point is that, given that the first ball has already been drawn and observed to be gold, then the second ball (from the same box) has a 66% probability of also being gold.
Why is he still padding his breasts?
The smile that must be protected at all costs.
>>288469460>PrecureIsn't that a baby show?
>>288469485They're implants, not pads.
>>288469350That's a whole different question.See, the key here is that your first pick is a random Gold.You have a 1/3 chance of hitting the GS box, and a 2/3 chance of hitting the GG box, because you don't know which Gold you hit.By the time the question is asked, you're already locked into that box, so that part no longer matters.
>>288469509
>>288469535
>>288469515>chance of hittingNo, it's a chance of having hit the box. Past tense. That's relevant because the question is about the probability of your second draw, not the probability of having hit box A or B. The question starts in round 2, after the draw. Once your first draw is in the book, you're either left with a gold or a silver.
Nao's boyfriend is here to save the day!
>>288469515>You have a 1/3 chance of hitting the GS boxCorrect.>and a 2/3 chance of hitting the GG boxIncorrect. It's a 1/3 chance of the GG box.>By the time the question is asked, you're already locked into that boxCorrect.The 50/50 probability of drawing the gold from the GS has already happened and is in the past. Now it's just the probability that you have the right box.
Nao is made for porn.
>>288469611>>288469651Nao is under arrest for stealing his heart
>>288469597Let's try it this way: The balls are layered. We know you pick a Gold first. The second layer of the ball is the other ball in the box.So the layers end up looking like this:G G GG G SThese are the only 3 possible permutations. You cannot swap the layer, so how many of these 3 will end up with you picking up a G?
>>288466456practice for team B at Madhouse just like trillion game last year
>>288469729
>>288469344the anime is serviceablethe op is nicei like the source material so I'll stick around for the fulll 24eps
>>288467099boys are so easy when a cute retarded girl baits them with 70 millions
>>288469412nah best anime of the season is something else
>>288469783nah
>>288469666>We know you pick a Gold first.Except you already have picked the gold. I think you get this, you're just trying to argue a position nobody is defending
You are on a gameshow against another two contestants.Before the three of you are three boxes. You cannot see into the boxes.Each box contains two balls. One box has two gold balls, another box has two silvers and the last box has one gold and one silver.The winner will be the person who draws two gold balls.You each randomly select a different box and draw a random ball from the box.You got a gold ball.Person B got a gold ball.Person C got a silver ball.Who is most likely to win?Bonus question: You can swap boxes before drawing the second ball. Do you swap?
>>288469795you're lying!
>>288469826I pull the lever, redirecting the moving cart onto the box with two gold balls
>>288469814Which of the three Gold did you pick?Two of them share a box with a Gold, and 1 does not.Maybe you should ask an AI, you seem the kind of person that might be more receptive to that. Just take the image and slap it in.
>>288469826>Who is most likely to win?Uh, would it be 50/50 between A and B since you have no information on the boxes prior to the drawing and one of you has to have the double gold?>Bonus question: You can swap boxes before drawing the second ball. Do you swap?Isn't the answer yes because swapping gives you 60% odds?
>>288469845Sonna.
>>288469826you can't distinguish between person B or youby symmetry, both have an equal chance of winning and swappng does nothing
>>288469856The question asks about your next draw, and you are stuck with the box you picked. In that position, you have one box with either a gold ball or a silver ball. I know you know this, but you're still trying to argue the answer to a wholly different question. So this is my last post about it>Maybe you should ask an AIKeeeeeeeek you are so mad right now.
Nao thinking.
Nao... lied?
>>288469925SONNA
So why exactly did the LGBT just let Akiyama walk in?
>>288469960Why would they stop him?
>>288469729>This is the classic THREE BOXES PROBLEMGoogled that term and didn't find shit. Just Monty Hall references. AI hallucinating again.
>>288469986Correct term is Bertrand's box paradox
>>288469960they've only got two guys onsite and they're busy manning the counterthe revival round is purposefully low-effort
>>288469986https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/literal-and-liberal-translations-of-bertrands-box-paradox/
>This is MADHOUSEyikes, I didn't even know. This is their janitor team I take it..
>>288468174I wany my votes back bitch
>>288468174*checks contract again*masaka...
>Mr. Jones has two children. The older child is a girl. What is the probability that both children are girls?>Mr. Smith has two children. At least one of them is a boy. What is the probability that both children are boys?This one didn't age well.
>>288470234Are Mr. Smith and Mr. Jones related?
if ourguy Akiyama doesn't get to fuck Nao after all this bullshit I'm gonna get mad
I have to admit Nao, Akiyama, and Baldie are my favorite character, so I'd like to see how Baldie can comeback from this too. I know Fukunaga is going to scheme some devious plays on the other retards and steal their votes or maybe side with Nao?
>>288469826It's a 50-50 because there are 4 scenarios, 2 in which you have the GG box and 2 in which the other guy has the GG box.
>>288469982Outside interference?
>>288469611Is Akiyama going to get to taste Nao, if you catch my drift.
>>288466216Real answer from a math expert:If you already have a gold ball, there's only 4 possible situations you're in right nowlet SS be the box with 2 silver balls, GG the box with two gold balls (let's call them g1 and g2) and GS the box with 1 silver and 1 gold ball (let's call it g3).Since you hold a gold ball, there's zero chance you picked SSa) you picked GS: you hold g3 and the other ball is silverb) you picked GG: you hold g2 and the other ball is g1c) you picked GG: you hold g1 and the other ball is G2in other words, if you pick another ball without knowing in which scenario you are, you have 2 chances in 3 of picking up another gold ballanswer is 2/3
>>288466350We truly were the Liar game
>>2884662162/5 since there are 5 remaining balls and 2 are gold.
>>288466216if anons are losing their shit with this wait until they hear about the monty hall problem
>>288466216A priori, there are 6 outcomes with equal probability. We are then told that we picked a gold ball. Conditioning on this, we have 3 outcomes with equal probability. In 2 of these, the other ball is gold. Thus the answer is 2/3.
>>288466216everything in this life is 50% 50% dipshit, it either happens or it doesn't, all this probablity shit is just cope.
>>288470413>Monty Hall problemThat one is extremely simple, especially when increased to a large scale. Your blind guess vs every other option.This one confuses a lot more anons because you've already made the crapshoot of drawing the golden ball.
>erm actually, I picked gold (right) instead of golf (left), therefore, it's different! Literally the same thing50/50
>>288466193First time I heard about this one getting animated, always saw the manga in recomendation post from Kaiji threads, never got around to reading it. Is the adaptation good? Or is the manga outright superior? If they are on the same level then I'd just watch the anime.
There's only a 5.57% chance of Nao winning that game. Is she stupid?
>>288470467Earth-shattering, life-changing, mind-blowing trvke.
>>288470495Give the first episode or two a go to see if you like it.
>>2884705066.48%, I meant
>>288470495The anime adaptation is far worse than Kaiji's one.It lacks any noticeable music, interesting facial expressions, it has slow pacing etc.The manga is probably better just because you can read it faster
>>288470467It quite literally is different tho. gold balls are not fungible
>>288470531This isn't fair.Kaiji adaptation is like top10 of the adaptations.
>>288470561i thought the anon was implicitly asking if Liar Game's adapation sized up to Kaiji's adaptation
>>288470506>>288470529I got a probability of75275227 / 1162261467
>>288470653That is the exact value, yes.
>>288469913Cute Nao doing things she wasn't programmed to do.
I never stopped believing in Nao! Go get em girl!
If I had two balls, one gold ball and one silver ball, and I put it in a bag and hit (You) in the head with it, would you stop arguing about this already?
>>288470898
>>288470898I liked how Nao faked believing a probability fallacy to further entice Fukunaga
>>288466261Nao is a cute little puppy~
>>288470898>If I had two ballsFukunaga has two balls!
>>288466216100% because everything I touch turns to gold
>>288470922You thought I was a woman? You know this is the liar game right?
>>288466261>Storage lockers in a secluded area with an openable ground level window next to themWould get robbed so many times.
>>288470993Only if it's not illegal. Akiyama break and entered to play the game, so surely that makes him illegal?
>>288470342The rules did say you could bring "anything". Why would Nao leave her greatest asset at home?
>>288470993>>288471023
>>288471100The reputation of Anonymous may never recover.
>Pull my finger, Nao. I promise not to fart
>>288471152S..sonna
>>288470561Given that it's madhouse adapting it, I was expecting a great adaption but alas, we can't have good things in life
>>288471182They did low budget Trillion game adaptation, so this wasn't their first.
>>288471182they are outsourcing all their episodes to a chinese company so it's madhouse in name only. And yeah it's aweful, it even has AI generated backgrounds so that should tell you how little of a fuck they gave.
>>288471269hey it's just a modern take on rococo
Wait so how much debt is Nao currently in if she bought votes?
>>288471392+42.5M - 30M (fukunaga) - 7 * 70M = -477.5MI'm ignoring the 12.5M she'd get as a winner
>>288470467Would it make you stop crying if we use people and you have face blindness?
>>288471392None. Literally doesn't need to pay.
>>288471392It's okay she can now sell the votes back for whatever price she wants and come out of this game with even more money (knowing how retarded she is she'll probably just get enough to cancel her debt because she doesn't want to put the other players into even higher debt or something retarded like that)
Nao servicing men for money.Even when not in debt.
imagine if she makes them suck her toes for votes.
So why did Akiyama make it his life mission to protect Nao?
Don't lewd Nao
>>288471700There was an entire episode about that.
>>288471700mommy issues made him bimbosexual
>>288471725Which one?
At the faggot that started this whole box riddle:Its 50/50 after the first draw.But this isnt about the riddle itself right?I cant shake the feeling someone wants to observe if they can condition people into a wrong answer through suggestion.
SONNA MASAKA BAKANADID HE DO LE USO????AIEEEEEEEEEEE AKIYAMA ONEGAI DASUKETEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
>>288471700I'd do it too for prime retarded pussy
>>288466539>>288466563it's basically unwatchable, I had to drop it here, you can't write a character to have lower than room temp iq and pretend I take the shit you write seriously.DROPPED
>>288471851Calm down son.
>>288470964>Didn't do bottom surgeryGuessed as much. what's up with the fake breasts though.
Doujin of this arc where Akiyama doesn't save Nao so she has to buy back points with sexual favors but it turns out she's a sex goddess and milks all the men there dry (tranny included) when?
>>288472000filtered
>>288472000lol you watched Nao's show
Question: Did they change the last few seconds of the OP? I could have swore it showed them walking outside during sunset and they look back at the letter falling to the ground.
S O N N A
>>288471851IT'S CALLED THE LIAR GAME
>>288472255Based
apparetly they made a small game for this episodehttps://eelgamestudio.com/liarroute/
>>288472429it's just a running game
>>288472429Cute
>>288472090nigga just rewatch and check
>>288466386No more nice girl
>>288472429oh cute it's about akiyama racing to the bowling alley
>>288472429Yatta!
>>288472429I saved her!
>>288472429this game? it took 40% of the budget of the anime
>>288472597sonna...
>>288472600First official Nao ToT?
Nao-chan is too precious.
"Is the next ball gold?" is a deliberately misleading way to pose the question. It makes you think the outcome of the next ball is the focus.What it's actually asking is "which of the two boxes did you pick?" as the answer to that also answers the ball question. We only know we pulled out a golden ball.There's a 100% chance of pulling out a golden ball from box A, and a 50% chance of pulling out a ball from box B. Ergo, there's a 2/3 chance that the event "I pulled out a golden ball" belongs to A.What the next ball will be is irrelevant because it is determined the moment you pull the first ball out, since it depends on the box you chose. Therefore you should instead focus on "what are the odds that the box was A", and those odds are greater because Gold Ball happens more often when pulling from A.
>>288472429Cute.
Poor Nao...
>>288466216Because you are forced to pick from the same box, there are 6 options at the start:- You pick G1 and have to pick G2 next- You pick G2 and have to pick G1 next- You pick G3 and have to pick S1 next- You pick S1 and have to Pick G3 next- You pick S2 and have to pick S3 next - You pick S3 and have to pick S2 nextYour first pick was a gold ball, that eliminates the last 3 options.Which means you are in one of these 3 scenarios, all of which are equally likely:- You picked G1 and have to pick G2 next- You picked G2 and have to pick G1 next- You picked G3 and have to pick S1 nextIn 2 of those 3 you are forced to pick the gold ball, in the other one you get silver, so 2/3
>>288472776>what are the odds that the box was A1/3
>>288472686
>>288470127Worse, it's outsourced.
>>288472848She's kinda cute in a mentally retarded (face) way.
>>288471269>a chinese companyDR MOVIE is korean
You have 3 visually identical loliwives.The first Always cums when you spank her. The second Sometimes cums when you spank her.The third Never cums when you spank her.You find one of them and spank her. She cums. Is she more likely to be the first or the second one?
>>288472877It could be worse.
>>288472951Re Zero is on Wednesdays, m8.
>>288472949that's WORSE
>>288472951Depends. What color are her balls?
>>288468435You'd think that would have helped all the 2/3 retards understand. Can't believe I'm sharing a board with people dumber than Nao.
>>288466526>i'm too retarded to understand therefore they did a bad job at explainingNah.
Are you more likely to draw a gold ball from a box with two gold balls or from one with one gold ball and one silver one?If you're smart enough to solve this, you can work backwards from there.
I am the gold ball.
>>288468480Enter a savior.
You have a box with two gold balls. You have a box with a silver ball and a gold one.You do an arbitrary number of single random extractions. You find that you draw golden balls 75% of the time and silver 25% of the time.You find that 66% of all golden balls drawn are from the box with two golden balls.You draw a gold ball.Is it more likely to have come from the box 66% of all gold balls come from or from the one 33% of them do?
>>288469255Depends if her first child was born on a Tuesday or not.
>>288472951Why did I marry the third one?
>>288473120I knew someone like (You) would reply with a shitty fucking troll post. No, you are wrong. Fuck you and fuck your semantics.
>>288472951But I don't have any loliwives!
>>288473385I'm sorry you were too braindead to understand something so simple. Go cry about it someplace else.
>>28847325250/50 at that stage.
You have 2 cards.One has a double sided back. The other doesn't. You draw a card at random and see the side facing you is the back side.Which card is it more likely to be?
>>288472090>did they update the introNo, as that would demand effort.
>>28847344850%
>>288473436Wrong. You're equally as likely to draw from either box, but you're more likely to draw a gold ball from one box than from the other.
>>288473153But what is the likelyhood that I choose (You)?
>>288473448I wonder if Nao would actually answer it right, and was only deceived by Fukunaga's careful framing/wording
>>288473448>In the three-card problem, three cards are placed into a hat. One card is red on both sides, one is white on both sides, and one is white on one side and red on the other.>53 students participated and were asked if a card pulled from the hat is red on one side what the probability of the other side being red were. 35 responded with 1/2; only 3 students responded with 2/3.
>>288472429My superior /v/ genetics earned my this score, Nao is mine!
>>288466216Okay I put the ball inside my rectum, now what huh?
>>288466216P(gold|gold) = P(gold∩gold)/P(gold)
Finally an Honest Game in my Liar Game!
>>288473651I dropped the show here. I was promised a liar game, not a there's no way to cheat you in this game.
>>288466216I invoke Schrödingers Katze and put the ball into a simultaneous gold-silver.Then I use Devil's Proof to turn it into gold.The probability is now 100%.
>>288473549I'm sorry anon, she is MINE now
>>288472540
>>288467795DON'T STOPShe's hotter when she's evil!
>>288473719>>288473796>Liar RouteYou aren't worthy of her.
>>288473802>Nao being confident and talking shit about the odds instead of losing her shitEasy tell she was up to something.
>>288473796You truly are the liar king *kneels*
>>288473719>post>instantly get mogged >>288473796SONNA
>>288473830She was winning so her being confident was understandable, but the smugness is uncharacteristic
AKIYAMA-SAN HOW COULD YOU SUGGEST SOMETHING LIKE THAT?
>>288472951Okay now I get it thanks for speaking my language anon
When Nao and that guy went to the bathroom my mind went to some dirty places
Nao is one hell of a smooth liar.
reminder that statistics is one of the most useless fields out there
>>288474179Cool, but we're talking about probability, not statistics.
>>288474179but statistics is the foundation of insurance companies?
>>288466193Wait, the anime is out already?How many episodes?
>>2884742559But low quality animation and direction.
>>288474192Whats the difference? Apples and oranges to me
>>288474267Shit, almost the whole cour is over...
>>288474277Probability: Before the thing happens.Statistics: After it happened.
>>288474309it's 24 episodes
I can't believe this PowerPoint is being animated by Madhouse
>>288474179Justify this statement without using statistics.
>>288473587copper wasn't a choice
>>288468609why the long face
>>288469364>girl
>>288474365burden of proof is on you
>>288472429This game is too hard.
>>288466350> you fuck NAO and had a hole in the condom> she baits you saying she was on the pill all along S-Sasuga!!
>>288473796Not bad, but you missed the secret route.
>>288469128nice
Where did LIAR GAME™ succeed where other geimu anime didn't?
Powerful posture.
>>288475085I'm more concerned about the chin
>>288475068cute naos
>>288475085Powerful chin
>>288472952Worse than that?
>>288472429Not bad. Apparently, you can double-jump.
>>288469510Not with all the armpit pussies this season has.
>>288470321Where's the bulge?
>>288471023that teddy bear doing work
The whole trading of votes seems like an asspull that was explained poorly at the onset of the revival game. I don't think the tranny should have been so confident in his M ticket contracts if he knew people could still vote for him to fulfill whatever bullshit he wrote but trade their votes away still. I'm also STILL mad that the tranny went "lol I wrote down a fake name you can't hold that piece of paper against me" last game but now gets to go "obey the smaller piece of paper or financially die!"
>>288476672Well these are backed by the guys who are enforcing the (financial) death games so they're legitimate
>>288476672True, such a crucial rule should have been clearly stated. Otherwise it makes the whole buying and selling aspect redundant.
>AIEEE Akiyama-san!Will never get old.
fufufu Nao jobbing was all part of the plan
Naonao can't lose
>>288476672Speedwatcher-kun, they can't resell the votes they already cast for him, they can only sell the votes they received.
>people cant into probabilitiesthere was also a movie about calculating black jack outs which had this retarded 'problem' at the start
>>288471423>I'm ignoring the 12.5M she'd get as a winner12.5M assumes only 1 loser. As long as nobody breaks their voting contract, Nao can create a 7 way tie for last place and collect 350M.
>>288475068exaggerated expressions
>>288478074>Nao can create a 7 way tie for last place and collect 350M.woah
>>288466346 (Me)>Say this as a joke before watching the episode>Realize I don't have time to actually watch the episode before work>Actually watch it just now>mfw it's more or less what Nao did the second time
>>288473796-0.03
>>288466216this might help some anons understand why it is 66% (2/3) and not 50% (1/2)
>>288478074wait, in the event of a tie, what happens?I don't think they cover that
>>288478917it's actually more that the second box gets its probability halved than the first box getting doubled upIf you add more gold balls to the first box nothing changes but if you add more to the second box then it does change
It doesn't make a bit of difference. Dende's gone, remember? The balls are inert.
>gold balls>金玉>testiclesIt all makes sense
>>288478981no probability gets halved or doubled, that makes no sense for this "riddle".there are simply three possibilities, with three outcomes, two of which happen to be the same.>If you add more gold balls to the first box nothing changesno, it increases the odds of getting a second golden ballthe original question says you take a golden ball, but it doesn't say which one of all the golden balls available. Thus for every new golden ball in the game the probability changes
>>288474969you trolling or where the fuck is it?
Niggers who actually thought the tickets were for buying snacks:>>288476672>>288477015
>>288479096if box 1 has 100 gold balls and boxes 2 and 3 still only have 1 gold 1 silver and 2 silver, the odds are still 2/3. The overall probability of pulling a gold ball isn't g/(g+s), it's 1/3*100% + 1/3*50% + 1/3*0%
>>288467721
>>288479285once again, like in my help image, you for some reason start to think of all the golden balls as being the same golden ball, that's not how this works.Think of it like thisLet's say in one box there are 500 golden balls, and the other 1 gold and 1 silver.You are automatically forced to take 1 of the 501 golden balls, but you don't know which one. It could be the 1 from the 1 silver box, or, it could be one of the 500 box. What are the chances you are forced to take one of the 500 boxes compared to the silver one? Is it 50/50? or 66/33? No, the likelyhood that you are forced to take one of the 500 ones is like 500/501, i.e. 99.8% or something. And if your chance of already being in the 500 golden balls box is 99.8 then that means that the other ball being golden is also that 99.8%
>>288466216>guaranteedreplies.jpg
>>288479329>You are automatically forced to take 1 of the 501 golden balls, but you don't know which one.You changed the question. You're supposed to choose a box first, then choose a ball from it. Not choose a ball irrespective of box.
>>288479246Sorry anon, I lied in the Liar Game's thread.
>>288479376Except the question forces you take a random golden ball by default.I guess it's a semantics issue in the end. It would have been better, to get the actual realworld answer of 50/50 chance, if it had asked "What is the chance that the next ball from the same box is the same color as the one you picked?"but it doesn't do that. It removes random chance of picking a box the moment it says you picked a golden ball. Especially since the original question provided a third pure silver box, giving the reader the illusion of choice of picking a box instead of being handed a golden ball.
>>28847436595% of all useless facts comes from statistics
>>288479400SONNA
>>288473830Still didn't help Fukunaga
>>288473946It's almost like it's some kind of a Cheater Game
>>288479329
>>2884796521/2
>>288479652What are the chances I pick a JPEG artifact?
>>2884796522/3
>>28847967750/50 = 1 = 100%
>>28847965299% isn't it?
>>288479652if you want to make such a "gotcha" (which it isn't) at least try to make it reasonable by making all the boxes the same size
>>288479777The boxes could be transparent and the puzzle wouldn't change.
>>288479800Once again: There is no "picking a box", since the question forces you to take a golden ball. The question intentionally confuses the reader with a misleading setup and instructions.
The ending of this is so shit btw, don't get your hopes up
>>288479777Size of the boxes doesn't matter since you pick a box at random.>>288479842>There is no "picking a box""You pick a box at random."
>>288479842I don't see how that's relevant to what I said.
>>288479842Just because you're confused doesn't mean the question is confusing.
>>288479851>endingIt never ended. There was a hiatus and the now manga has resumed.
>>288479652
>>288466350SONNA BAKANA!!!!!!!
>>288479942>If you picked the first box, you may open it, peruse the balls>Note: You can't see into any of the boxes???
>>288479959touche
>>288479973∞!factorial, not exclamation
If Nao knows how to lie know, I guess I can't convince her to suck snake venom out of my penis anymore...
This was a fun thread.
>>288466216okay but what does this have to with liar game
>>288480133It's literally just a rewording of the card game from this episode.
>>288480133conditional probability lil niggy
>>288479856>"You pick a box at random.">Except you don't, because one of the boxes is automatically disqualifiedIf you could randomly pick a box, you could have the chance to get no golden ball, but you can't, because that is the misleading part you dolt
Alright Nao, if you let me put it in you, I'll do whatever it takes to make you win.Plus, I'm sterile, so don't worry about any side-effects.
Bump limit already. Usually takes a few days.
so Nao is okay with just lying and cheating now? being honest was her one and only personality trait, what is the point of even having her around now? dropped
>>28848023490% of the thread has been about boxes.
>>288480234People got filtered by the iq test
>>288480253Did she actually lie? Perhaps there is a spare slot for the highest loser.
>>288480195We get it, anon. You don't understand high school math. You don't need to keep telling us.
>>288480195You pick a random box with a gold ball
>>288480313that's not what the original question says.>>288480295>"shit, i'm too dumb for this question, I'm looking like a fool...eh...eeh...you don't understand high school math!"
>>288480343It is implied. You randomly take a box and get a gold ball. So you only take boxes with a gold ball.
>>288466261I hope Akiyama gets with the cute retarded girl by the end. It's not like he has anyone else after his mother passed
aw a bump limitwell anyway its impressive nao was able to remember everything in enough detail for akiyama to come up with a winning strat
>>288480639i think nao is clever if you disregard her (wilful?) naivete
I was wondering how this thread managed to go on for so long and it turns out it's the same reason every timePure autism
>>288480639Her head is so empty that it's actually really good at retaining lots of information.
