Do you think we’re in the middle and nearing the peak of a global stock bubble? Countries like India and the USA have had 25% growth this year, and around 100%+ growth in the past 5 years, way way above historic norms and past even inflation. Countries like Japan and the eurozone indexes have also seen 20%+ growth this year, far above their own norm.Generally it’s touted that inflation is good for stocks, but historically in countries like the US, Germany, and African nations when high inflation has hit the indexes have actually remained flat to down, not actually making gains until stability has returned to the countries currency (the 1980 perma bull era after volcker). Generally it’s presumed a weak currency means weak corporations for a country. If so, will crypto be a good safe haven from this equity collapse? Will shorting the market be a valid strategy? Should you short now?
>>58787280Stocks are purely speculative. Unless you believe $0.50 annual dividend from $100 share is a good deal.
>>58787297>unless you believe 0.50 annual dividend from $100 share is a good dealWell it depends, if I predict growth to be -10% then that’s an effective 15% rate and a great deal
Valuation relative to earnings has gone past the 2 previous financial crises and is now at pre-1929 levels. Yes, we are in a massive bubble. But timing the moment it bursts will be hard, especially because the last time it burst in late 2021 and serious cracks began to form in the banking and pension systems in many countries in early 2023, central banks re-initiated unprecedented liquidity injections that dwarfed the 2008 crisis, which re-inflated the bubble and sent it to new ATHs.How high will it go and for how long? Nobody knows for sure, but an old saying on wall street goes: as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. It’s during bubbles that you stand to make life-changing money in the market. When the music stops like it did in late 2021, it will be obvious to the people who are paying attention.
>>58787334I do think there’s something to the average lifespan becoming longer meaning that average valuations have room to grow. I do still think it’s a bubble of massive proportions though.Do you believe there will be any sort of blow off top? Reading stories about 1929, stocks in pop culture seem dead compared to the stories of frenzied buying from yonder.
>>58787526tech companies have been doing billion dollar stock buybacks since 2020, which does inflate their eps and in turn effects their p/e ratios. since 2020 apple has bought back more than $400billion worth of shares and their valuation has more than doubled. same case with microsoft as well. they have been buying back billions of dollars of shares since 2020 and their valuation has more than doubled has doubled too. you cant really compare this phenomenon to older times because companies werent allowed to buyback shares until the 1980s when SEC made regulatory changes, and we have never seen companies that were this rich in terms of free cash flow. yes the company didnt produce anything new or "grow" financially, they just spent free cash that they would have otherwise been sitting on. but you are kind of making an apples to oranges comparison.
