EVERY TIME the curve uninverted we got a big recession and crysis. This time it spent a record amount of time being negative. We will see something incredible soon (not 2 more weeks, more like 3-4 months - right before Christmas/New Year). Savings are at an all time low and credit card loans are spiking in the US. And when the US coughs the rest of the world gets a flu.>inb4 it's different this time>inb4 2 more weeks>inb4 BUT MUH TECH STOCKERINOS ARE BOOMING BECAUSE LE HECKIN AI (which has no use case/profit)>inb4 same houses ARE DEFINITELY worth 2-3x more in 2 years because reasons even though inflation is just 30% in total>inb4 no one wants the dollar (people are literally begging for jobs now)I'll give you a smart bit of advice - get out of stocks, sell housing, don't buy nonessential items, don't buy fast food, save every bit of money that you have, because this shit will last 5-6 years AT LEAST until we recover back to 2018/2019.
my favorite thing about bears is not just the usual talking points>muh credit cards>muh dominoesbut this time theyre championing the inversion. which essentially boils down to >0-[positive number] = [negative number]like theyre flabbergasted and elated at this revelation. theyre completely obsessed with the idea that 0 minus a positive number is negative. its hilarious and childish. great fun to read!
Im going to time the absolute picotop better than Buffet. they won't pull the rug till after the election
>>58985745You will cry when you lose your life savings in crypto/stocks and have no job to sustain yourself. A crisis like this has been brewing for some time, it's bound to hit in a few months. Europe is already in a recession, that's why the ECB is lowering rates in a state of panic. Feds will try to do the same, but they all fucked up. They thought they could hit the can down the road infinitely. Better pray for a recession or depression, the only other route is a stagflation which is much worse.
>>58985731priced in
>>58985748>>58985797top signals
Will this be a case of buy the gossip sell the news? We all know they’re cutting rates for months now.
>>58985745Except the numbers mean something, my 84 IQ reductionist friend.
>>58985748Not so sure about that, anon. Buffet timed his part perfectly, obviously, he still has his talent. But most people here will be stuck with their extra houses that no one will be able to rent (on which they will pay insane taxes, bills, maintenance and HoA), their centralized shitcoins no one wants to buy (Bitcoin) and their overinflated Nvidia stock (lmao - they really think that people will need graphics card when they can't purchase food). Hundreds of billions of dollars and euros wasted in Ukraine, hundreds of billions of dollars and euros wasted in training AI without any profitability in sight. Oh also - don't forget the student loans kicking in soon. The deflation is gonna be pretty brutal.>>58985816This is not crypto/nft etc., it's not a techbro meme. US and EU economy are getting fucked realtime and it influences everyone, it's not a zero sum game. Expect A LOT more layoffs, especially for highly paid jobs. Statistics are pretty clear to me. Everyone who bought a vehicle/home for these (completely insane) prices and got themselves deep in credit will go under.
Capped.Time will tell if I go on to post this laughing at you and calling you a nigger or proving we were all warned
>>58985855>inb4 you're overestimating the impact of 100s of billions of $ poured into AIYou do understand that people employed in big tech companies (which are the only ones having a positive return in the stock market atm) say that they went ALL IN on AI. If it's a nothingburger (everyone sees that it is - even the supposed AGI Strawberry by OpenAI is just a meme at this point, trained against benchmarks and not against real world problems) and when investors realise they were scammed it's gonna be an insane time to be working in tech.
>>58985855nothing ever happens schizo doomerhave fun being sidelined
>>58985731You guys told me everything was going to explode when the yield curve inverted two years ago, now everything is going to melt down because it un-inverted?
>>58985731Seems like the fed is just gonna keep plugging holes with funny money. We’re already in a recession and we will continue to be but assets will continue to rise
>>58985870Nope, when yield curves invert - then comes the inflationary period. ALL of the recessions/depressions occured ONLY after 4-5 months after the curve uninverted. The yield curve inverted because they were giving loans with 0 interest, due to 15% unemployment when Covid hit. They were quite literally kicking the can down the road and what we witness now is essentially the result of all of this. They cannot kick it anymore without risking hyperinflation, which would be far worse than any other possible scenario.>>58985868Screencap it and check after 3-4 months. You don't need to be a genius to predict this, it was so obvious from the start.
>>58985804>>58985731>>58985892bottom signal
>>58985900Imagine actually believing any of this shit is real, just pump my shitcoins so I can leave.
*ahem**clinks glass*the only thing that has ever caused a recession is excessive debt
>>58985868The 10y-2y spread has been 8 for 8 on recession predictions.I'm not one of the 2 weeks posters, either. Doomsday prepping is dumb but you can't ignore the trends.
100% priced in
>>58985731Wtf do you mean silent, I've been posting about this non stop. The housing market is gonna get fucked, which will fuck stocks, which will fuck bitcoin, which will fuck shitcoins. Everything will be fucked for a bit, but everything will continue trend up afterwards. I don't think it will last very long, couple months max.
>>58985745I can’t wait to turn this guy into a bear for obvious reasons
>>58985797Priced into gold yes.You have to remember the people that hold a majority of this wealth are in 90% profit on their stocks so selling would mean they lose 30% to capital gains tax. It’s better risk management for them to buy gold and ride it out. >InB4 25 anons just learned something new
>>58985950Literally 99% of threads are either some shitcoins ElonCumRocketCoin or Bitcoin (LE HECKIN BLACKROCK BOUGHT OUR BAGS - surely they will never dump them), 0 threads about real thing happening in the real world lmao.
>>58985731when is it finally happening so i can invest all my cash
>>58985900They have literally kicked the can down the road since 2008. Every single instance that was supposed to cause a major crash they get bailed out. The only way I see this happening is they decide to crash everything if trump manages to beat the cheating and get elected. He will have to clean up the mess but if its Kamala expect more kicking the can down the road.Also what you claim isn't accurate at all.
So buy gold then?
>>58985965>surely they will never dump themcorrect, makes sense>0 threads about real thing happeningyou didn't get the memo? nothing happens
>>58985975if you are 60yo, yesdementia could make you forget your seed phrase so it's a better choice
>>58985975Get gold teeth
>>58985731rate cut incoming nvdia pe 54 and ai isnt sentient so itll correct the s&p 3% for a 50% correction since it weighs 6%
>>58986021Yup, and funnily enough inversions/recessions/depression comes only AFTER a rate cut, because they cut them too late. And they can't cut too agressively otherwise inflation is gonna skyrocket again. It would be a meme if they refused to cut rates.
>>58985763Have fun sitting on your worthless infinite supply dollars while watching every asset inflate away from you.>>58985975Yes.
Wouldnt rate cuts make yen carry trade unwind even more?
>>58986135Yes.And then they are going to blame the Japanese, and then they are going to blame capitalism. And then they are going to blame trump. And then they set up a system where only old people can maintain their wealth and young people can’t make capital gains from investing.
>>58985731It crashed and the fed pivoted and then it uninvertedThis time the fed pivots because of the high debt, its different.
>>58985855>Hundreds of billions of dollars and euros wasted in Ukraine, hundreds of billions of dollars and euros wasted in training AI>>58985855>deflationPrinting dollar does NOT cause deflation it causes Inflation
We are in a recession right now. It isn't controversial to anyone other than insane state-funded journalists.
It's over. No good times ever and we're JUST getting started.From here on out there will only be crisis after crisis after crisis till the day you die. You think it's bad? Well it's only getting even WORSE. And worse. And then it will ACTUALLY get even WORSE. Just more pain forever. We are so far from the bottom it isn't even funny. This was NOTHING compared to where we're going. There is no bottom. Where will the new money magically come from huh? It's so over. No happy thoughts never ever. Greed even just as a concept in the human mind completely erased, just fear till the day you die. Crisis and pain forever. Be afraid. It's over. It's dead. Buckle up.
cash is king
time to panic
>>58986230>>58986236>>58986241Let me guess if you go back a year or two all the videos are the same. We were supposed to have a crash with the major bank failures in 2022-2023. It was supposed to crash a month ago because of Japan.
>the yids are uninverting
>>58986656Let me guess, two more weeks?
>>58985731after QT comes QE. We will get a giga pump that will last until mid 2025 late 2025. btc 200k to 250k, smart money exits when top is in. Then bears get their giga crash. ''they'' will inflate the balloon 1 more time.
>>58985731Blah blah blah you don't know shit. We've literally confirmed a recession a few YEARS ago. The only way things get worse is if Kamala wins. In that case we'll go into a 10 year depression. If trump wins, it will be the final bullrun. Those are the 2 options. Everything else is dumbass noise
>>58986241This guy is a genius if he is right and a recession does come
In consideration to financial astrology, everything points out to a 2008-style crisis seriously beginning around april of next year. We will probably see a final rally until early Q1 due to retail being hyped about the interest rate cuts.
>>58987522Negroid tier analystsKamala wins = it's overTrump wins = final bullIt's not complex
>>58986036Ok chamath Scamming ass nigga
>>58985731deflation. Look at how the interest rate decision is not going to bring the expansion of m2. China has been in the situation for 2 years, the US is going to wake up after the election circus and 4.5 or even 4% not yielding the expected economic expansion - too much uncalculatable risk and too many known risks
>>58986177there is monetary deflation and there is economic (decrease of demand and/or production) same as there can be inflation of both. Production and demand side, deflation - monetarists as Keynesians believe that an expansion of monetary base, monetary inflation can counter act the economic deflation - they have been proved wrong for 40 years - the combination monetary inflation and fundamental economic deflation lets collateral, means capital from real estate over assumed future humans too internet pogs fundamentally devalue.Imagine a home that is on paper worth 300 Million units of accounts but has the collateral value of a car pre monetary expansion
>>58985731Does this mean I should buy T-bills and bonds instead?
>>58985892Don't interest rates have a lagging effect???
>>58990416Yes it takes time to show up in consumer spending with price fluctuations of goods
>>58986159I doubt that, that would probably provoke a civil war
>>58986236Retard fa
>>58987683Foolish statement. The state will do ANYTHING to kick the can if kammy gets in. They won't allow their side to take blame like that. Then give it to reds and let it come burning down. If trump gets it, then they'll rig it to implode with another world changing event. Look at covid. Nothing is off the table this time.
>>58985731>>58985745>>58985748>>58985763>>58985797>>58985804>>58985816>>58985838>>58985855>>58985862>>58985866>>58985868>>58985870>>58985892>>58985900>>58985911>>58985911>>58985917>>58985929>>58985933>>58985940>>58985950>>58985958>>58985962>>58985965>>58985967>>58985968>>58985975>>58985975>>58985979>>58985981>>58985985>>58986021>>58986036>>58986113>>58986135>>58986159>>58986172>>58986177>>58986195>>58986230>>58986236>>58986241>>58986301>>58986656>>58987343>>58987348>>58987349>>58987384>>58987522>>58987683>>58988144>>58989555>>58989582>>58990343>>58990416>>58990426>>58990433>>58990433>>58990440>”EVERY TIME the curve uninverted we got a big recession and crysis. This time it spent a record amount of time being negative. We will see something incredible soon (not 2 more weeks, more like 3-4 months - right before Christmas/New Year). Savings are at an all time low and credit card loans are spiking in the US. And when the US coughs the rest of the world gets a flu.”Does this mean I should buy T-bills and bonds instead?
>>58990472The state isn't the all powerful entity you seem to think it is. China's government has even more power and that hasn't stopped China's own economy from taking a huge dump
>>58985745The panic in OP is silly. But surely you understand that every single time the yield curve has uninverted it was an indicator that a recession was just around the corner, right? If not you are a fucking retard. It was inevitable. We all knew that a recession was coming when the world shut down for Covid and tried to keep afloat by printing money. This was always the expected outcome.
>>58985763China is in a major recession too
>>58990506this... the whole point is they are stuck between a rock (depression) and a hard place (hyperinflation)
>>58990475You haven’t shown any correlative data showing that just draw a meme line and admit you are not capable of basic fa
>>58990510you're deluded if you think this isn't gonna be like, the worst depression in history
>>58990532Quit doing doomsday predictions I did this shit when I was a teenager it’s fucking hilarious to me now
>>58990416yes. it seems like we're in a recession now because what's coming is a great(er) depression
>>58990532Nah. Probably will be on par with 2008. Maybe 70s stagflation. Won’t be a depression.
The fed had cracked the code. There will be no more recessions from here on out. Assets will rise and the wagie class will be left behind. You will own nothing. You will be happy.
>>58990536Generational theory says there will be a major crisis within the next ten years, probably closer to the next 5 years. Maybe that won't involve a massive crash but it certainly could
>>58990547cope
>>58990548what you're describing is hyperinflation. that's just a crash in all but nominal terms
>>58990561This country cannot take a depression. The crazy is at all time highs and the armed and thugging crowd would demolish their surroundings. Everything near Chicago is getting the locust treatment. Violent crime up the wazoo. The soft landing they want IS the recession. It beats giving the most pent-up and mentally unstable generation a reason to run wild. Seriously, you can not find a drug free hire these days. Everyone of them needs mood stability in pill form. They're walking psychos in waiting. Imagine them on withdrawal from inability to get their happy pills.
>>58990591>This country cannot take a depressionI get what you're saying but that doesn't mean it can't happen. Sure nothing ever happens but eventually a whole lot of shit happens
>>58990591you're right. it can't. and yet, it must.
>>58990591I wouldn't be surprised if a major economic disaster solves 90% of the mental issues they're having as the women are forced to pair bond earlier
>>58990553post study
>>58985731Wait 2 more weeks guys. It's certain to crash.
>>58985731>We will see something incredible soon
>>58991065you're a dumb nigger who can't think critically. you expecting us to say -30% next weeks. that's not even remotely how 2000/2008 went. it took a better part of a year for the market to bleed. just shut the fuck up. recessions happen AFTER rate cut. because they are always late. 50 bp is admission of extreme weakness. all cuts are admission of weakness.
>>58985731m8, the whole point of the fed since 08 is to make sure these doom day events dont happen. t. been waiting for it to be over since 2008
All this doomer posting is making me bullish.
>>58991277>77>bearposting is overBobrothers, our response?
>>58991277so go take out a massive loan and buy more stock index funds
>>58991355Stock index funds??? I only buy bitcoin monsieur
>>58990566It’s a slow death to the lower class
>>58991355If you can get a good rate
>>58992336actually this is dumbthe run we had was a once in a life time phenomenon
>>58985763It’s been ‘brewing’ since 2008 but will never boil over. Financial reality and US capital markets have permanently decoupled. Your advice would be prudent prior to 2008 but no longer. It’s a controlled casino that will always go up. Moral hazard has been effectively erased.
>>58985855The rule book Warren has lived by has been tossed out the window.
>>58985855Housing is in tight supply as population has boomed without a satisfactory increase in housing.
>>58985855AI will be the new bread and circuses of the masses to live out fantasies they’ll never achieve IRL, so yes the AI revenue will come
>>58985900That might be true if we were Mozambique, but the US holds all the cards.
>>58985731Prior to 2008, the fed was willing to let the market go down. That isn't the case anymore. They will print endlessly before they let the voters 401k lose value.It's likely we will go through a recession and tough times in terms of buying power, but it will happen from the dollar losing value.
>>589904755 > 6 > 1 > 2 > 4 > 3
>>58991127All the nigs and beaners and homos finally get sent packing?
Haven't we basically been in a depression since 2008?
>>58992912I am so fucking ready for the Great American Exodus.
>>58992996Yes, real rates determine real growth, and real growth was very low pretty much consistently once ZIRP was introduced until 2018. Inflation in commodities was the canary, despite massive increases in the monetary base inflation and commodity prices remained low for the period.
>>58990475Worst kind of 4chan user
>>58992707And how did it boom? Importing all kind of browns They know what theyre doing
>>58993437Yep. Mass reply faggots get the rope.
>>58985731Here's my anecdote:>be me>take out a decently sized personal loan>a month later tell them "lol, how about I only pay back 25%">bank says "30% and it's a deal"Things must be really bad for them to agree to shit deals like this.
>>58992788so your house will be worth 5 million dollars, but the guy working mcdonalds will be able to afford it. lol
>>58992695>>58992705>>58992707>>58992713>>58992724>t. guy who spends all his time reading /pol/ and thinks he's got it figured out
>>58994205And then your credit score drops 300 points
>>58994458>oh no, my good goy score
>>58994458What's the point of having a good credit score if you never use all that banked up goodwill to really fuck over a lender or two every now and again Nigga you made the unsecured loan not me, I just saved you some taxes just go debit Bad Debts Expense and stop calling me
>>58994455I noticed you insulted the man without actually disagreeing with anything he said
>>58994455>The jew will call you anti-semitic, but never a liar.
>>58985900>They cannot kick it anymore without risking hyperinflation, which would be far worse than any other possible scenario.Hyperinflation occurs precisely because it is a better option (for the state) than the other options. Why pay back your debts with good currency when you can pay them off with new, bad currency? Of course it has all kinds of bad effects, such as your population going broke and losing everything, but that is beneficial to jews and doesn't really concern the state (unless they're overthrown), so it's better than defaulting and the jews who run everything losing.
>>58991369Learn the market you seem new here
>>58994781shut the fuck up Raphael, you can choose any name here and you choose RAPHAEL?fucking psyco
>>58994776But the wildcard here is the USD is the world's reserve. Every other country to experience hyperinflation was a lesser currency. Interesting times for sure
>>58985731Haven't you heard? It's different this time buddy.
>>58996000I’d say over 10% credit card delinquency is not a good sign but hey what do I know, just buy some more nvidia or whatever yeah bitcoin 100k eoy dude, yeah man I just bought this shitshack next to a crackden in cali for 1.5 mil and it’s my nest egg, the line just has to go up it just has to, nonono i can’t be side-lined till i rope it just can’t bei’m going to laugh as the world collectively loses their mind because they naively think things will get any better as they bleed their savings till the breaking point is reached where the masses will beg for a quick fix thus dooming themselves to true permanent slavery this isn’t even doom or fearporn this is just become painfully clear over time that this is the direction we are heading towards and it’s not like the people calling shots are very subtle or secretive about their plans and intentions for the average joe or should I say jésus or pierre from haiti or whomever, another facet that’s getting so painfully obvious even the cattle is starting to moo about, the future looks grim and plastering smiley faces and doing googoogaga baby-talk about how it’s all swell isn’t going to change anything nor is acting smug on the internet preventing people from losing their savings
>>58985870>two years agothe one that matters is the uninversion 3 weeks ago, two years ago the economy started to blow up so the US used disguised QE and book-cooking to do economic warfare and sanctions to try and fuck BRICS but it didn't work and is now backfiring. the big-dick-chickens are coming home to roost and they are looking to FUCKyou ever been fucked by a chicken anon? you better get your economic anus ready because you're about to.
>>589859003-4 months is optimistic because of the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment IMO. i am guessing they pull a cyberpandemic right when it blows uphttps://rielpolitik.com/2021/07/07/gladio-from-event-201-to-cyber-polygon-the-wefs-simulation-of-a-coming-cyber-pandemic/
>>58985940>the derivatives market blowing up, 90% of banks failing and a global liquidity/sovereign debt/bond market crisis and death of a hegemonic currency is priced ini shiggy diggy you aren't this retaerated
>>58986021the way i see this happening is the equity market melting up until a very sudden and "unexpected" event causes systemic disruptionthis next period is likely an opportunity to make some money but if you are playing that game you should be as leery as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs
>>58986135>>58986159yeslook at BoJ governor Ueda's statements in the last day or two. and all 9 BoJ governors voted to keep the rate steady at .25%. the yen market is likely where it starts (and spreading to asian markets esp hong kong, korea and taiwan which are all hanging on a thread for different reasons- remember how Korea literally banned short selling?)instability in the Yen market is the canary in the coal mine IMO
>>58991249my man there are three separate potentially nuclear flashpoints in the world right now and countries are severing diplomatic relations as we speak. israel is launching a military campaign in the exact area where the bible predicts the final battle, literally right this second. you are suffering from object permanence perceptual fallacy.
>>58997341>big-dick-chickens are coming home to roost and they are looking to FUCKbased big dick chickens
>>58985731ackshually chud this is bullish, golden bullrun eoy!
