Why does everyone assume the S&P500 will go up forever and that it's the safest investment? 70 years seems like a short timeline to predict its behavior so confidently.
>>58997541legit question: are you retarded? why do I even bother asking. you sound like a cryptotard.
>>58997581Yes. Explain to me like I'm a retard. It seems to me that using a very prosperous century predict the behavior of the economy going into what appears to be a very unprosperous century, is kind of silly
>>58997541We've observed that technology steadily improves over time and leads to more productive output. We've also observed that large and free economies tend to grow over time. Why would you bet against that?>70 yearsWe have nearly 200 years of US economic and stock data.
>>58997541the dollar will keep decreasing in value ergo stonks will keep increasing in value(as will real estate)simple as
>>58997639>"productive output">dont actually produce anythinghmmm
>>58997639Except now most of the top SP500 corporations are not productive, zombies whose stock price and prr share earnings performance are artificially inflated with stock buybacks.
>>58997541The #1 thing to realize when talking about macroeconomics is that MONEY ISN'T REAL. Dollars are just work tokens. You can't eat them, drive them, or fly them. We use them to simplify the exchange of labor, to determine the production of certain goods and services over others via market forces rather than central planning.Let's say you put your money in the S&P500 for a few years. You turn a healthy profit, you cash out, and you go buy a car with the profit.Where did that extra money come from, if money = work tokens? Where's the work? You didn't go out and build a car piece by piece, nor did you work a job and just buy a car, so what gives?Answer: the companies you invested in produced more than they could in the past. Better tech, more workers, more efficient processes, all of this leads to a greater net production. More production = more stuff, more stuff = you get a car.The problem, however, comes when companies can't produce more than they could in the past (for example when the population of productive workers shrinks), or when they take shortcuts to increase production in the short term while reducing it in the long term.However, this is largely outweighed by technological advancement, and by the fact that you are investing in a large spread of successful companies so as to minimize the risk of any one company making poor choices.
>>58997598>Explain to me like I'm a retard. It seems to me that using a very prosperous century predict the behavior of the economyThis is a valid point that people miss because they've been told by authority figures that Stocks Only Go Up without understanding the wider picture, and their entire view of the universe is post-war America.>going into what appears to be a very unprosperous centuryBut this part is just speculative.
>>58997541As long as there is inflation, the market will go up. Look at the S&P divided by the M2 money supply. That's all you need to know. The US is by far the strongest economy in the world backed by the reserve currency so the chances of an economic collapse which would cause foreign investment to flee the country is extremely unlikely. Any economic collapse in the US would likely mean even stronger collapse in other parts of the world.USA #1
>>58997793My nigga where do you think companies get money to do their stock buybacks?
>>58997541A few udemy-course salesmen pointed out that index funds always seem to recover after 20 years (ignoring inflation), and because Marxists on social media do not understand economics either they misinterpreted it as "capitalism requires infinite growth" and when pressed to elaborate with more specific details, they cannot.
>>58997541I guess you could look at dow industrials instead which has a 140 year history. >>58997598What magical foresight can you possibly have to know what awaits this century? Historical data is the best information we have to predict the future, but regardless, assuming you can see decades ahead is a stretch and a half.
If the system that perpetuates the growth of the US equity markets over decades were to die, it's likely the US dollar itself is also dying out in the process.
>>58997711>dont actually produce anything>>58997793>not productiveThese are public companies. You can read their published financials every quarter. You can see exactly how much money they earn.
>>58997598>money supply increases, real world assets stay largely constant, aside from:>economic growth manifests in equity growththere you have it, stop reading marx
