Michael Burry seems to think so
Everything is inflated because everyone is tied into the market via retirement accounts. Even foreigners. It's not a bubble unless everyone tries to cash out at the same time.
>>59596881ETFs are part of the financial sector bubble yes. It doesn't (necessarily) mean the ETF itself will go down: it means the controlling company's stock will (like BLK). The ETF itself could go down as it tracks the assets it tracks because it's very presence was causing its targeted stocks to increase in price. If that makes sense hopefully.
>>59596900>>59596921Thank you for extrapolating your opinions.So if I'm a lazy investor I shall stay invested in ETFs then? As long as boomer and dumb(er) money keeps rolling in, we should be fine right?
>>59596921Thats the reason burry thinks its a bubble, etfs increased the value of the underlying stocks, and in the case of a bank run like crash, the etf will be the reason underlying stocks crash harder than normal as the etf has to sell them en masse, its pretty much decoupled any reasoning of the actual value of the underlying stock, they are bought because they are ie part of the top 500
>>59596881The broken clock was right twice, but it's still completely useless to tell what time it is.Burry's best legacy will always be that Christian Bale portrayed him once.
>>59597044>Thats the reason burry thinks its a bubbleYes. It's not only the ETFs that trade stock though, it's also the ETFs that trade OPTIONS and the LEVERAGED ETFs as well, which have both become extremely popular amongst people that don't have a clue how the derivatives market works (or how it's manipulated). When there's a panic sell off, the reaction will be massive, and there are multiple triggers for a panic:- real estate crashing due to either commercial real estate linked with overvalued tech or with residential prices falling (as they will need to inevitably)- tech crashing due to the AI bubble (this will most likely cause the entire SP500 to crash seeing as how heavy tech is in it).- finance crashing due to earnings not being sufficient enough to justify current price (this is also uncomfortably likely to happen very soon considering earnings reports come out right after CPI is released).- bitcoin crashing, taking with it tech, CRE, and finance.Any of these three could be the catalyst, but they are all linked inextricably so once one goes, the others will follow quickly and then it will look like the world is ending, thus precipitating the suicide pact people made with ETFs over the past several years.The Trump Bump may have been the last gasp, we're in endgame now. The CPI will most likely show that a "soft landing" is impossible. If it meets expectations, that's bad, but if it's higher then holy hell. The only chance people have of one more "Trump Bump-esque" mini-rally is if CPI comes in lower than expected, but then we'll probably see the crash start when he imposes tariffs against AI related tech.The safe bet is placing shorts in RE, finance, and tech and then monitoring and adding to them on the way down, depending on how it plays out over the latter half of this week.
>>59597215>When there's a panic sell offForgot to mention: as bond yields become more attractive, you can also expect retirees to rotate from ETFs into bonds, which also serves as a catalyst. Inflation is still at unacceptable levels for retiree savings to carry them through retirement, so expect the Fed to look for any excuse over the next two quarters to start raising rates.
>>59597044>its pretty much decoupled any reasoning of the actual value of the underlying stock, they are bought because they are ie part of the top 500Do we have a comparison of how S&P500 stocks performed over the last 10 years as opposed to say stocks 501-1000?
>>59597275The list is changing constantly though, atleast for ETFs, depending on the type of etf, world etfs are very tech heavy because those stocks have the biggest market capitalization, but thats the issue i was talking about, those etfs buy them because their mcap is big, not because they are good stocks, and in the same way they will be dumped on times of a crash even if the stock company is performing very well, it will still dump hard from all the etf sells
>>59596881I would pull the money out of my 401k in a heartbeat if I didn't face penalties. Shit is so gay. Only reason I have one is employer match.
>>59597437Roll your 401K balance over into an IRA (and/or Roth IRA) plan you control. You'll save on fees and have much greater freedom in what you can invest.Do you have to wait until you quit your job? Sometimes, but a bunch of plans allow in-service rollovers. If you're playing for non negligible amounts, it's worth looking into.
>>59597824>Roll your 401K balance over into an IRA (and/or Roth IRA) plan you control.this is the way to do it
Passive investment into index funds is a bubble. They've pushed PE ratios so high it doesn't make sense to own them any more.Bitcoin will demonetize index funds as people switch their passive investment to DCAing into BTC. When enough people get it then index fund ETFs will be a slow rug.
>>59597882>Bitcoin will demonetize index funds as people switch their passive investment to DCAing into BTC....how does it benefit risk-averse, non-due-diligence-doing people to rotate out of ETFs into bitcoin exactly? Bitcoin is mainstream now, sure, but it's entirely unproven in terms of hardship. SP500 has at least weathered every recession so far. Until bitcoin survives a recession, it makes no sense for people to choose that to protect their savings instead.
>>59597882Wrong, bitcoin will be the first to go down and a sign of the impeding crash. People usually take out money out of bitcoin very quickly as soon as the markets feel fickle.
>>59597913Technically, the US was in recession between 2/2020 and 4/2020. Only recession that happened during Bitcoin's existence, and shortest ever. Still, Bitcoin's one for one.>>59597934Kinda yes, and yet not really. If you look at Bitcoin's chart for the above period, yes, it absolutely crashed, from $10.5K to $3.9K. Dreadful. Yet by May 2020, the price had basically recovered and it went on to do its long term trend cycle thing, which it has been doing very consistently regardless of external events.
>>59598067>Technically, the US was in recession between 2/2020 and 4/2020. Only recession that happened during Bitcoin's existence, and shortest ever. Still, Bitcoin's one for one.Nope. That's bitcoiners trying to claim they have dozens of confirmed kills in OEF when they in fact they just played CoD.2020 was a plan-demic faux-cession: it was completely inorganic, and it even featured handouts from the government to "help people out".A real recession, even if triggered synthetically, involves very real crowd psychology going nuts. People will be selling their assets, both stocks and crypto, just to keep from being evicted. By contrast, the lockdowns featured people being given stay-at-home money by the government.Bitcoin has had a luxurious existence up to this point: it most likely will not survive when forced to compete.
>>59598123>plan-demic faux-cessionnice way to signal you're a retard in the first sentence of your post
>>59598067During that unusually brief recession, BTC was down like 75% and only recovered because every asset was pumped with trillions in stimulus and QE money.Would BTC survive an actual, long term recession or stagflation? What happens to bitcoin in a japan deflation scenario? Would you bet your retirement on it? Many here would, but I don't think most are like the average /biz/ poster.
>>59598172>>plan-demic faux-cession>nice way to signal you're a retard in the first sentence of your post...considering it appeared in the third sentence, is this irony?
