(TL;DR at the end for dopamine deprived zoomers)in most securities markets value investing is the number 1 investing strategy. You can almost guarantee with quantitative and [relatively simple and predictable] qualitative factors whether or not a stock will go up in the long run and by how much (undervalued stocks & margin of safety)it's not perfect but its track record is impressivebut value investing does not apply to crypto since there's no real value behind crypto, it's just a currency; a means of transferring value, not creating it. (gold is valuable since it creates computers, real estate is valuable since it creates homes for tenants, stocks are valuable since businesses create sustainable sources of income and potentially political power, etc...)is there a proven and tested strategy that applies to crypto as well? A sort of equivalent to value investing?in my opinion analyzing the tokenomics of a cryptocurrency and researching who would be most likely to use that currency are the closest thing to value investing that you can get in crypto [that I know of], however this cannot be the whole picture since Monero for instance is probably the most used cryptocurrency yet notoriously has been doing nothing but crab for years in spite of that.I'm prone to believe that branding is the other missing factor to the equation, but I'd like to know what /biz/ thinks as well. Discussing topics like this one will also increase the overall quality of the board.>use cases are useless, crypto is all gambling!I understand where you're coming from but there's obviously a pattern to successful and unsuccessful cryptocurrencies. Monero for example managed to be fairly successful in spite of every Government and Corporation's attempt to stop it. So use cases - especially in the early days of a coin - can definitely be very usefulTL;DR: value investing but for crypto. Does an equivalent to this strategy exist in the crypto space?
>>59665761You answered your own question in your post.>value investing does not apply to crypto since there’s no real value behind cryptoUntil this changes, the only way to invest in crypto is based on following macro trends.
>>59665761This dude's strategy is completely irrelevant today.You can make do with measly 10% annual returns per year "value investing" while you slave your life away at your job, just so you can finally live comfortable at 80 when you can't even get your dick hard anymore.ORYou ape 100% of your savings into the right low-cap meme, dump it at 1000x return a week later, retire at 25 and enjoy endless pussy until you die.Fuck this guy's book.
>>59665761>in my opinion analyzing the tokenomics of a cryptocurrency and researching who would be most likely to use that currency are the closest thing to value investing that you can get in crypto [that I know of], however this cannot be the whole picture since Monero for instance is probably the most used cryptocurrency yet notoriously has been doing nothing but crab for years in spite of that.Have you considered the possibility that Monero is fairly valued while everything else is insanely overvalued due to the market being so irrational and manipulated? You're trying to make sense of nonsense.
>>59665991>>You ape 100% of your savings into the right low-cap meme, dump it at 1000x return a week later, retire at 25 and enjoy endless pussy until you die.wow, that's how easy it is?! Its crazy how we're not all millionaires by now.
>>59665991>This dude's strategy is completely irrelevant today.You have to adapt the principles to the current situation.For instance, it's possible to estimate the value of 1 BTC based on the operating costs, interest expenses, etc of a bitcoin mining company by examining the 10K and 10Q reports of a given company.This answers the question: "how much in USD does it cost [this] bitcoin mining company to mine 1 BTC?"hint: it's WAAAAAAAAAAY less than the current trading price on 1 BTC on the "open market". That's part of how it's clear the bitcoin market is topping: WS is mining, and only stupid retail is buying.Best
>>59665991if you're value investing and barely even beating index funds then you just suck at value investingvalue investing is proven to work to this day. You can get 2x or 3x from just buying stocks using his strategy in a normal market if you're decent at it. And that's without stock options.>>59665809read the rest of the post. There are some proven strategies that already work, but they aren't complete.>>59666048Monero's fair "value" is much higher. The only reason why it didn't go higher is because of instutitutional price suppression by creating lots of hurdles for normies to buy it.if it was at its fair "value" it'd at minimum be in the mid to higher 4 figures or the low 5 figures.There is also no such thing as "overvalued" when it comes to currencies since they don't have inherent value to begin with (they *transfer* value)>>59666230this is an interesting adaptation of value investing into crypto but I highly doubt this would work. There's Value investing also stops working when it comes to overvalued stocks. It only really works for undervalued stocks. (which is already plenty)
>>59666406*There's little correlation between the operating costs of mining bitcoin with the actual perceived value of bitcoin
>>59666406>Value investing also stops working when it comes to overvalued stocks.You can switch to comparing stocks to bonds at that point, but then you have to do TVM stuff and estimating growth which is not totally graham.>>59666422>*There's little correlation between the operating costs of mining bitcoin with the actual perceived value of bitcoinKind of. It makes it clear that bitcoin is in fact entirely dependent on existing infrastructure and IT'S value expressed in USD, but it also kind of defines the nature of the cognitive disconnect between market valuations and "fair" valuations. You look at it that way, and it really makes the bitcoin bubble very visible.
>>59665761>is there a proven and tested strategy that applies to crypto as well? A sort of equivalent to value investing?hodl btc
>>59665761The proven and tested strategy is to buy as much bitcoin as possible before everyone else. >>59666523It will always have a USD price. Eventually there's just so many zeros that it becomes obvious that fiat was the bubble.
>>59665761Fascinating question! Aside from the "store of value" of Bitcoin, I would say no. Its the speculative 1999 Internet bubble every 4 years. I don't know how one would apply value to cryptos of past cycles, see below.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EY8rq1AyCPY
