> EU will announce retaliatory tariffs too.> Absolute pandemonium in the market.> Sp500 drops another 10%, everyone will be losing their shit calling this another 2008 financial crisis.> Suddenly right before April 9th at market closing Orange Fuck says he has renegotiated stuff and tariffs will drop.> Watch the market pump back up. Bitcoin rages up to 100k.And of course because i am expecting this shit it will not happen. Or not?
It won't matter, it'll be like pressing the brake on a car that's already in midair after going off a cliff. Multi year bear market is the best case scenario
>>60137696Well that's my base scenario too. I don't see how it could happen differently. Trump is stupid but not to the point of completely nuking the economy for no particular reason. He has always used his antics as a negotiating tool, I don't see why this time would be different.
>>60137696>And of course because i am expecting this shit it will not happen. Or not?Trump's tariffs are unhinged, so they are meant to be negotiated.They will fall, with some relief rally, but what is the timeline? One week, four weeks, three months?
>>60137696It would be hilarious if Trump removes tariffs.I don't believe he will. His ego won't let him.
>>60137717Nah, we will be in a bull for the coming year or so. AI will kick off a multiyear bear market, because it will essentially stop middle class spending, destroying lots of industries.This creative destruction will take a few years to be compensated by industries catering to AI.For example, kids' education and family cars will tank. But electric actuators and data center HVAC will grow.
>>60137696>he has renegotiated stuff and tariffs will drop.Rule of threes. The tariffs are here to say. Previously he made announcements like this right before the weekend. This time he made it in the middle of the week and did not rescind them. Shit's fucked and Congress, the useless faggots, are the only ones who may be able to stop him.
>>60137726Why not? He can label every negotiation result a victory. Public opinion has overcome facts.
>>60137696It’s too late to take them back. The market knows the president is an unstable retard, backpedalling on tariffs wont change that
>>60137696Do you know how trust works anon? The problem is that there was a huge loss of trust. This is not just a temporary hiccup. Even if Trump backs away from the tarrifs in Monday the damage is already done. People are moving away from USA markets.
>>60137776You so badly need this to be true. Why I wonder? To spare your ego for backing an incompetent orangutan.
>>60137869Just to add, you are right about one thing. There will be a huge drop once the EU announces their countertarrifs.
>>60137820>negotiation resultMan, imagine everyone else now puts tariffs on US imports. Then Trump negotiate with them to remove tariffs in exchange he removes tariffs. We all get where it was before tariffs, but Trump acts if he won. And then Americans clap.No way this will happen, right..?
Even if tariffs are removed nobody will keep their money on the whims of cheetah man
>>60137925>We all get where it was before tariffsIf he gets China or EU to lower their tariffs below what they were before this, it is a win.
>>60137994I think he wants everybody to buy the us debt
>>60137994What tariffs China and EU had on US before Trump's tariffs?
Why does everyone think in so short of terms with the market? Has it always been like this or is this specific to this market?Everything is overvalued right now and I would like it to not be. Learn to play a bear market you fucking faggots.
>>60138049Not everything is overvalued
>>60137994Here's your EU tariffs on US imports: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_25_541It's 1% on average.
>>60137696I don't see Trump stopping the tariffs for at LEAST a year because of his stated goals of encouraging production to move to America (capex takes time) and also because he wants the revenue the tariffs will generate to reduce the deficit.The stock market is overinflated anyway. Better to choose the timing of the crash rather than letting it be a surprise like it was for Bush2, or Trump's first term scamdemic crash.Anyone who's holding their breath for the tariffs to go away is just going to suffer longer.
How does Trump pretend he's negotiated a fake victory with every country on earth individually? What will he says the Penguins of McDonald Island gave him?Trump wants these tariffs. They give him personal control over the economy and taxes, everything will run through and depend on him. It's everything he's ever wanted.Only problem is it's suicidal economically, but what does he care. He'd rather be dictator of a sucking ship than impotent figurehead of a successfully floating one.
>>60138077>he wants the revenue the tariffs will generate to reduce the deficit.The economic loss will more than offset whatever revenues he's trying to gain, and these taxes disproportionately fall on the middle and working class, which means less spending, which means even less revenue, not to mention his retarded idea to make his tax cuts permanent as well as engaging in a new round of tax cuts. He's a fucking retard. Stop making excuses for this.
>>60138132>and these taxes disproportionately fall on the middle and working classtariffs aren't taxes, get the fuck out of here with your pilpul bullshit
>>60138029that's a dumb /pol/ post, buying secondary treasuries has literally nothing to do with the federal debt, those get bought at treasury auctions. The yield curve from abnormal buy pressure may influence the federal reserve's decision making, but monetary and price inflation is a bigger deal.>>60138031IIRC China had like a 10% tariff on most goods, not sure about the EU. I think Trump is a retard, but if this trade war leads to a revival of American industry and lower tariffs it would be a successful retarded gambit.
>>60138077The plan is to get rid of income taxes and put the burden of funding the government on people consuming foreign goods. I figure after a bit he's going to just shutter the IRS, say the tariffs cover everything, and the federal government continues to just funnel money to private enterprise.
>>60138146Tariffs are taxes. It doesn't matter how much you deny it, or how much you cope about it. Tariffs are and always will be taxes.
>>60138169This is how borderline failed states find themselves (poorly)
>>60138132>The economic loss will more than offset whatever revenues he's trying to gainSee that's the thing: the entire economy is fake and gay so it doesn't really matter if a bunch of financial firms take a hit in order to get real jobs for real americans. In the meantime the government is on the verge of a hyperinflationary crisis or bankruptcy, which is why the government checking the couch cushions for loose change with audits.>not to mention his retarded idea to make his tax cuts permanent as well as engaging in a new round of tax cuts.We really shouldn't be having income tax at all, hopefully the tariffs are so big and wonderful and successful we can just have those instead and repeal the 16th.>>60138169Well somewhat, there's an attempt (a poor one) being made in Congress to cut spending, but they're incompetent jackasses that passed a clean CR instead of a real budget, so I'm not holding my breath. We'll probably see another "crisis" around September.
>>60138226>See that's the thing: the entire economy is fake and gayAnd there's the cope. Anon, just go back to your containment board. You don't own a home, securites, and probably don't have a job.
>>60138450Only one out of three anon, nice try. The economy IS fake and gay.
>>60138064>It's 1% on average.Not after the shitshow Trump pulled. EU will put new tarrifs at the end of the month.
