>New details from Admiral Paparo on Chinese PLA military ops around Taiwan:>“Over the summer, I saw the most rehearsal and the most joint exercises from the PRC—with the widest geography, the joint-est operations for air, missile, maritime power—that I’d seen over an entire career.”>• 152 vessels at sea, including 3/4 of the amphibious force>• 43 brigades “breaching obstacles, onward movement to military ops in urban terrain”>• 2 major demonstrations of military power in May and October (exercise Joint Sword A and B)>• Longest-ranging geographic air and maritime cooperative exercise between China and Russia>“This was the largest rehearsal as we’ve seen on an upward trajectory of PLA modernization and joint rehearsal, as the PLA continues to enhance and improve its military capabilities.”Could Taiwan be taken with just 43 brigades? It's much smaller than Ukraine: https://x.com/ianellisjones/status/1860479241055318257?t=lztZCxSMITUqDc89-MTzTQ&s=19
>>62917746>152 vessels at seaSounds awfully small for an invasion force.
>>62917746Nope
>>62917746Negatory.>>62917755Checked.
>>62917746>The Battle of Inchon (Korean: 인천 상륙 작전; Hanja: 仁川上陸作戰; RR: Incheon Sangnyuk Jakjeon), also spelled Battle of Incheon, was an amphibious invasion and a battle of the Korean War that resulted in a decisive victory and strategic reversal in favor of the United Nations Command (UN). The operation involved some 75,000 troops and 261 naval vessels and led to the recapture of the South Korean capital of Seoul two weeks later.[9] The code name for the Inchon operation was Operation Chromite.>The battle began on 15 September 1950 and ended on 19 September. Through a surprise amphibious assault far from the Pusan Perimeter that UN and Republic of Korea Army (ROK) forces were desperately defending, the largely undefended city of Incheon was secured after being bombed by UN forces. The battle ended a string of victories by the North Korean Korean People's Army (KPA). The subsequent UN recapture of Seoul partially severed the KPA's supply lines in South Korea.>The UN and ROK forces were commanded by General of the Army Douglas MacArthur of the United States Army. MacArthur was the driving force behind the operation, overcoming the strong misgivings of more cautious generals to a risky assault over extremely unfavorable terrain. The battle was followed by a rapid collapse of the KPA; within a month of the Incheon landing, the Americans had taken 135,000 KPA troops prisoner.[10]Maybe, if they manage to pull off something like Incheon: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Inchon
>>62917746They always say that PLA is still not ready to pull of an invasion, but isn't it the best moment for that? I mean USA is in the process of transferring power from one team to another, which see definitely makes them more volnerable to chaos, the new guy will be much more hostile and confrontational and at the same time NATO is dealing with ammunition shortages that are progressively getting resolves. I mean their position will not get better if sanctions rape their economy even more and the west sorts out the Ukraine situation.
>>62917746After a sustained bombing and starvation campaign probably. Also dont forget Chinese assets on Taiwan that are sabotating and designating targets.China wont invade before they havent softened up the defenses tho.China specifically has some GMRLS that is meant to do this softening up job at a cheap price.
Trump won't let it happen
>>62917810The success of different kinds of missiles and drones for softening up defenses is paramount to a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan. There are only so many troops and vehicles you can actually fit on landing ships and helicopters and X% of them will be destroyed before reaching their objectives. If Taiwan manages to cripple too much of the invasion force before they land it doesn't matter what happens afterwards. The defenders will always have the advantage in a scenario like this so the only way China wins without an extremely lengthy invasion is by landing a fuckton of units simultaneously and a decisive offensive that is as well coordinated as possible. If the landing craft only manage to get here and there it will be a massacre.
>>62917825>Defender will always have an advantageThey both have their own pros and cons. The defender gets to fight them at a very difficult time. But the attacker gets to choose where the battle happens
>>62917746china wont attack unless the timing is right. at the very least they will wait until trump is out of office and they'll get 4 more years to build more carriers.
>>62917813Trump literally let the Chinks take over Hong Kong back in 2019 without any consequences
>>62917847It was inevitable
>>62917839>But the attacker gets to choose where the battle happensNot true, though it's a common delusion of armchair generals. The attacker can choose where he would *prefer* the battle happen, the defender is under no obligation to defer to that choice, and is free to start the battle on its own terms. China may well decide that it will invade at e.g. Guanyin, but Taiwan is free to start the battle while the invasion ships are at sea, or even while they are still in port. They could even decide to start the battle at the Three Gorges Dam, if they were feeling particularly saucy.
>>62917746>gets uppity>gets flotilla BTFO by weekend production of a tech hobbyist larping as MIC
>>62917883You sure about that?: https://x.com/johnkonrad/status/1859769553670242690?t=AmLp6NBqqaH4Geg_c_RfPA&s=19https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=USX6yuv6J_Q
>>62917900Admirals are retards still stuck in the 1970s waiting to retire so they can get a nice Lockmart cushy job so they shill for the same shit their bosses shilled in 1980s. It's understandable. The future is here old man. Press the buttom and produce 3000 cruise missiles in one month. Throw the chink down the well so my country can be free, you must grab him by his horns than we throw a big party.
>>62917916>Drones and cruise missiles aren't affected by poor logistics
>>629178442027 is that last year where China has enough young men to launch an invasion with.
>>62917810150km rockets can't reach taiwan retarded chink
>>62917746HOLY FUCK IT WAS A GIANT AIR CARRIER ALL ALONG
china could if no one else steps in.but, us subs and b1s would probably cause quite a lot of havoc if they entered the fight. even if the qr b1s are taken out via missile spam of airbases, the subs will still be there.
>>62917746Unlike regards like the op, I actually watched the Brookings interview.He said nothing new or interesting. It was filled with a lot of "mo money fer dem programs" , "we respect international law", combat sustainment, and "the navy is the most important branch, give us money because china"
>>62918188I'M LOOKIN AT TAIWAN OVER THE DNIEPER, HOW THE HELL DID THE GET THROUGH?!?!?!?
>>62917861Is that the cope we're going to go with when he surrenders Ukraine and whatever other allies he wants to sell out like he did with the Kurds and the Afghan government?
>>62918258Yes.
>>62917938Why's that? Gacha sucking the poor men dry?
>>62917900I remember when the US said that Ukraine will lose in a few days and it was true!
>>62917847You mean the British
China has No balls
>>62917839>the attacker gets to choose where the battle happensI predict that it will happen on and around Taiwan
>>62917746implessive but unfortunately for you nothing ever happens
>>62918346But Taiwan is China.Checkmate, nerd.
>>62917780I think they're waiting for what Trump's actually going to do in regards to Ukraine, a frozen conflict in Russia's favor(that is, with Ukraine "returning" the territories they're occupying in Kursk), could embolden them enough to make a move on Taiwain in the near future, but if Trump happens to be much harsher to Russia then they might just keep biding their time.
>>62918686>I thinkdo you speak chineseare you aware that china is bigger than all the western world combined and that Taiwan will peacefully rejoin China soon or later?
>>62917882Taiwan or rather western analysts being so obsessed with the dam is kind of a clue as for the absolute retardation of these people.The dam cannot be destroyed by even a thousand cruise missiles, since it's a gravity dam and all those missiles still need to get through thousands of miles of mainland. Way to waste your munitions you would need otherwise for such PR attack, but that's what can expected from the same people that support Zelynsky.
>>62918069300km rockets can. The 370mm is the standard for the PCL-191/PHL-16
>>62917882>They could even decide to start the battle at the Three Gorges Dam, if they were feeling particularly saucyholy fucking reddit
>>62917883lmaoChina is the one who produces 1000 cruise missiles a day, not the US.>Anduril>Peter ThielHe's done with his vampiric pedo rituals? Any volunteers for his head-transplant project yet? Will he be living forever by drnking toddler blood?
>>6291774643 full strength brigades on the Taiwanese shore, getting regularly reinforced to make up for attrition? Probably, I'm not sure43 brigades on commandeered fishing boats attempting a naval landing against western AShMs? Absolutely not
It wouldn't just be the 43 brigades but 43 brigades backed by the largest hybrid war campaign in history and support from the mainland including airborne ops.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAnZdVG041Y>>62917780I've actually heard opposite, that the new administration will be all bluster and the gamble will be in calling the bluff similar to how Putin saw Afghanistan and thought the US was going to puss out.
>>62917746Yes. So do it.
>>62918703Are you saying they could not launch an impotent missile spam against the dam? It would certainly cause headaches if not what the poster thinks will happen.That could certainly bait an attack Taiwan is prepared for. Time for an attacker is as bad rushed as it is prolonged. China would have to do *something* and deal with unrest as well. This could very well be an ill conceived invasion, which China also has awful results with in drills much less in actual combat. They should have tried landings in Africa first or something.
>>62917924to the country that just fielded palletized munitionsLOL
>>62918693Year of our Lord 2024... China can physically see, but not own, a tiny island off it's coast.
>>62918214VOLODYMIR, DESTROY THAT BMPVOLODYMIR, CAPTURE THAT T-90VOLODYMIR, SHOOT DOWN THAT SU-30VOLODYMIR, FPV THAT TRENCHVOLODYMIR, RELOAD THE HIMARSVOLODYMIR, DEFEND BAKHMUTVOLODYMIR, ADVANCE ON KURSK
>>62918700>>62918703Sounds like Chang here is getting scared.
>3 gorges dam poster is backStop giving him (you)s folks. Destroying a big dam like that is hard work. If taiwan pulled it off and killed a million Chinese civilians, China would glass Taiwan in retaliation.If the US were inclined to blow up the dam, we'd understand that's a declaration of total war and would preemptively nuke China's cities and launch sites.And we'd never do that, so it's a silly idea.Only way this damn goes down is to a very very well equipped and funded saboteur
>>62917780>They always say that PLA is still not ready to pull of an invasion, but isn't it the best moment for that?The chingchongs have a different approach to war than the amerimutts. In this case, they know that their absolute strength increases every year, while Amerimuttistans absolute strength decreases every year. The longer they delay, the cheaper their victory. So thats why they wont do shit. One day America will be gone from the Western Pacific due to domestic reasons, and they will get Taiwan for free.
>>62919358this is not true because of the one child policy raping their population
>>62919369>one child policyoverblown. Compare Germany that had no such policy and China.
>>62919454they were literally drowning their female infants to make room for male ones i get this is bait but you could have been a little more coherent and in with the zeitgeist. it works best when you're just slightly incorrect instead of massively wrong so everyone feels the need to correct you without marking you as a immediate retard. or are you not paid enough for that?
>>62919369>this is not true because of the one child policy raping their populationAmerica has a policy of stranging white people family formation while subsiding the breeding of duskoids and negroes. Presently average IQ in America is like 85-87, summed up of averages across all races, with the UK population used as normalization (IQ=100) base. Once the white minority (presently between 35-37%) is depleted enough, its going to be total third world everywhere because there wont be enough americans with an IQ above 115 to even keep the lights on. That means America will have the power projection capability of a larger Brasil, which would be just a bit above zero. To sum it up: China has a demographic contraction, while America has a demographic disaster. The chinks understand this. Americans dont. That is why the chinks wont do shit, because the know that America of 2044 will be a hollow shell compared to America of 2024.
>>62917746>Could Taiwan be taken with just 43 brigades?No you would need at least 30 million soldiers
>>62919516>35-37%>source:my ass
>>62918700A dam us a dam my dude, once its breached and the water stars to flow physics will take care of the restThere is no force on earth that can stop a hundred million tonnes of water once its on the move
>>62919358Xi xinping is not willing to wait any longer, he is too old and too proud to let someone else take the "glory"
>>62918700Cruise missiles are not appropriate; for that kind of target you’d use heavy bunker-busters. Multiple GBU-57s delivered via B-2 would do the trick.
>>62918760>that the new administration will be all blusterSee, this is what I've been waiting for. All the Euroid doomers have been hogging the spotlight, but Trump's win made me most excited to see what wondrous chinkoid cope is in store, and holy shit chang delivers lmao
>>62917753Why? A fuck load of those ships are packed with way more sensors and advanced weaponry than the ships used during Overlord or even the landings at San Carlos.
>>62919588There's more dams after the 3 gorges dam, however.
It's going to happen peacefully in 10-20 years. Once China can make their own chips and TSMC stops being so important. Actual invasion is very unlikely unless US implodes somehow in next few years.
>>62919493>excess of 1 billion fighting age males wonder what they'll use that for
>>62919493China has 30 million more males. That's a bit over 2% of population. It's not like they were killing half of the girls or something. And it was mostly happening in poor shithole villages.
>>62919516What can you even say to that? Actual gigachud cope, the CCP explicitly recognises its awful demographic matchup versus the US and doesn’t give a shit about the 18th century skull science bullshit you think it does
>>62917780China will most likely invade Taiwan in early 2029 when Dump and his Chumps refuse to hand the White House over to the new president and will try to rule over US permanently:They'll fail to hold the White House, of course, but they'll provide enough distraction to give China plenty of time to invade Taiwan.
>>62918701Holy fucking the chink shill is so fucking dumb I can't deal with this lmao. Were you raised with gutter oil or something?Go ask the russian how many shells they needed to level a tiny town in ukraine and how much time it took
>>62917746Why does China care about Taiwan? Okay, the US puts nukes there.. just park subs around the island.
>>62920780You realize that worsens the problem, right? Each dam means more water, means more of a ramp up when the next one is hit. Technically the best way to fuck the gorges would be to start upstream.
>>62921008Saving face and/or 75 years of butthurt. The CCP has had capturing Taiwan as a priority since Mao. It's an economically thriving liberal democracy sitting right off shore showing the world what China could have been without the communist brain rot that afflicted it since the 50's.
>>62918700>The dam cannot be destroyed by even a thousand cruise missilesIt already almost broke a few years ago after heavy rainfalls. And given the quality of chink work, it's only a matter of time until it's going to fail.
>>62917746TL;DR, fuck the CCP, I'm gonna continue to buy cool stuff from Taiwan and Vietnam to spite Chicoms and Chicom simps.>>62920406>Why? A fuck load of those ships are packed with way more sensors and advanced weaponry than the shipsThe oceans a big place anon, also this implies anyone will give a shit about the blockade. If it were up to me I'd choose not to.
>>62918204>unironically self censoring yourself using “regard” Die in a house fire you fucking pussy. GetRaped by a pack of niggers. How did you even find this site? Was it in February 2022?
>>62918700The dam is built with cement reinforced with corn cobs, and built on a foundation of clay not stone. It has nearly collapsed several times simply from heavy rain.
>>62921008Because all the cargo ships and oil tankers that keeps China alive has to go through the Taiwan Straits. China imports 70% of its food and oil through imports, and they are in constant danger from being cut off by Taiwan. Taiwan doesn't need an airforce or a navy in order to cut it off. They can launch missiles from land. That being said, the invasion and occupation of Taiwan won't solve that problem, because Guam and the Philippines could cut that trade too.
>>62921105>meanwhile, Cuba collapses on its own
>>62917780yeah some time in the next 4 years is the obvious choice, because American foreign policy will be effectively headless for that periodBut that doesn't mean right now, Xingers probably wants to wait and see how the situation develops for now
