Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted every election. And has only been 'wrong' once, and that was in 2000 when the Republican supreme court stole the election for Bush.https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4863237-electoral-prediction-kamala-harris-win/A notable elections forecaster predicted Vice President Harris will win November’s election, according to his model of 13 keys.Allan Lichtman, a historian who has successfully predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, revealed in a New York Times video that he believes that Harris will clinch a victory over former President Trump. His election model is based on 13 true-or-false questions that ignore polls and pollsters.“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States — at least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote,” he said at the end of the video. The 13 keys include whether: >The White House party gained seats in the House in midterm elections >The incumbent president is running >The White House party avoided a primary contest >A third-party candidate is running >The short-term economy is strong >Growth of long-term economy has been as strong as last two terms >The White House has enacted major national policy changes >There is no social unrest >There is no scandal in the White House >The incumbent party candidate has charisma >The challenger is uncharismatic >The White House had foreign policy success >The White House had foreign policy failure“The keys absolutely will work. They are the constant northern star of political prediction,” Lichtman said. The video’s narrator explained that if a key was false, that meant it was in favor of Trump. He found that eight of the keys are true and in favor of Harris, while three are false and favor Trump.The keys that benefit Trump involve these false statements:
The White House party gained House seats in the 2022 midterm elections. “The Democrats did better than expected in 2022 but they still lost House seats. So the key is false,” he said.The sitting president is running for reelection. “Biden withdrew from the race, costing the Democrats this key, it is false,” Lichtman said.And, third, the incumbent party’s candidate is charismatic. “This is a very high threshold key. You have to be a once in a generational, broadly inspirational candidate. Harris has not met that standard. So this key is false.”Lichtman said the remaining two keys, including a foreign policy failure or a foreign policy success, could still flip in Trump’s favor before the election.“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip. The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped false, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House,” he said in the video.While he predicted Harris would win the race, he previously said Democrats’ only chance of winning was if Biden stayed in the race. He said at the time it was “foolhardy nonsense” to suggest the Democrats would replace Biden at the top of the ticket.Many polls show a close race between Harris and Trump. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average shows Harris with a 3.6 percentage point lead over the former president, based on an aggregate of 156 polls.
>inb4 the government shuts downhttps://thehill.com/homenews/4862402-speaker-johnson-cr-government-shutdown/
>>1338864That assumes people don't blame Trump for it because he's the one demanding the government be shut down just like how he sabotaged the immigration deal.But given the media is fully in the tank for Trump, it could go either way.
>>1338865https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/04/republicans-johnson-spending-plan-shutdown-00177322>Some of the House GOP’s most vulnerable members told Speaker Mike Johnson in a private GOP call on Wednesday that they’re worried his spending strategy heightens the risk of an electorally damaging government shutdown.>During a private, 30-minute call with GOP lawmakers Wednesday, Johnson laid out his plan to quickly pass a spending bill that would punt the current Oct. 1 shutdown deadline into March. He’s also going to attach legislation that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote. It’s the exact strategy pushed by House conservatives, and will almost certainly be rejected by the Democratic-controlled Senate.>Right now, it’s not even clear it has enough GOP support to pass the House.>New York Rep. Nick LaLota, a vulnerable first-term Republican, asked Johnson on the call what the speaker would do if the Senate rejected that package and instead sent back a straightforward funding bill without the voting policy proposal, known as the SAVE Act. LaLota argued that allowing a shutdown would mean 10 vulnerable GOP incumbents lose their races in November — enough that Republicans would lose control of the House — according to two people on the call.>The speaker declined to answer how he would respond in that situation, saying he didn’t want his plans to leak to the press. He also argued: You don’t go into a fight planning to fail.
>experts agree
>>1338859This is pretty obvious to anyone whose mind hasn't been completely taken over by Trump brain worms. Harris's momentum has only been going in one direction, JD Vance has been an utter disaster and Trump is incapable of adjusting his messaging or tone to a new candidate. His attacks on Harris seem desperate and flailing. Between Tim Walz's stolen valor conspiracy and Harris apparently not being black and Trump joking about her giving blowjobs on Truth Social it seems every attack he tries his hand at fails miserably to land with anyone other than hardcore MAGA fans. All he can do is repeat the same talking points about how terrible everything in the country is and how the last election was stolen and voters outside of his radical base are exhausted with it. He's using the same playbook he lost in 2020 with and seemingly no one on his campaign can reign him in to develop any positive messaging or platform.
>>1338868>>1338859>https://x.com/jackiekcalmes/status/1831784881938174303Its also becoming painfully obvious without Biden around to use as a foil that Trump is incapable of forming coherent thoughts. He rambles constantly, can't ever stay on a topic and every time you ask him a question he somehow always manages to avoid answering it then circling back to some talking point about how Harris was the border czar.
>>1338867This guy has gotten every election right. So yeah, he's an expert on Elections.
>correctly predicted every election>except when he was wrongyou suck, OP.
>the one key that ensured Starmergeddon: a 20-point poll lead over the Conservatives way before an election called on 4th July>the one key that ensured National Faily was denied their right to political power: that of the bus given by the French electorate to New Popular Front to run over Le Pen with>more than one key that ensures Harris is given the one key that matters: to the White House. More than Trump hasThe final domino's fall is assured. The right's failure is now complete.
>>1338888>Only one he got wrong was one overtly stolen by Republicans Hmmm...
>>1338876You’re a faggot and a blatant liar.See >>1338888
>>1338868Good post
>>1338900See>>1338895
One more key for Harris:https://www.thedailybeast.com/doj-bombshell-alleges-maga-media-group-is-backed-by-russian-money
>>1338924>https://www.thedailybeast.com/doj-bombshell-alleges-maga-media-group-is-backed-by-russian-moneyI assume you mean the 'scandal' key, but no - for that key to turn, it must affect the *incumbent* party. Otherwise it turns for the incumbent, which is Democrat - so it's technically already turned for Harris.
Don’tCareStillVotingTrump
>>1339143How did that work out for you in 2020?
>The short-term economy is strong>Growth of long-term economy has been as strong as last two terms>There is no social unrest>There is no scandal in the White House>The challenger is uncharismatic>The White House had foreign policy successAll of these keys are false. I don't know what delulu land Lichtman is living in. The economy is not in a good place short or long term, there is social unrest, there is scandal in the WH, the challenger is charismatic and the WH has had no foreign policy successes. >The White House party avoided a primary contest>The White House has enacted major national policy changes>The White House had foreign policy failureThere are the only objectively true keys, the foreign policy failure being Afghanistan and now Ukraine.
>>1339150Worked out well in 2016, chud
>>1339183>chudThere's no reason to bring up your parentage.
>>1338859FYI Allan Lichtman doesn't predict who will win "the election" he predicts who will win the popular vote. He was wrong about Bush '00 and he was wrong about Trump '16.
>>1339194>FYI Allan Lichtman doesn't predict who will win "the election" he predicts who will win the popular vote. Fair, but he's still wrong about 75% of his "keys" he uses to make such determinations. I don't understand how anybody can look at the economy and think it's in good shape either short or long term, for starters.
>>1339196https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-economic-growth-quarter-revised-solid-3-annual-113239881The U.S. economy grew last quarter at a healthy 3% annual pace, fueled by strong consumer spending and business investment, the government said Thursday in an upgrade of its initial assessment.The Commerce Department had previously estimated that the nation’s gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services — expanded at a 2.8% rate from April through June.The second-quarter growth marked a sharp acceleration from a sluggish 1.4% growth rate in the first three months of 2024.Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, rose at a 2.9% annual rate last quarter. That was up from 2.3% in the government's initial estimate. Business investment expanded at a 7.5% rate, led by a 10.8% jump in investment in equipment.Thursday's report reflected an economy that remains resilient despite the pressure of continued high interest rates. The state of the economy is weighing heavily on voters ahead of the November presidential election. Many Americans remain exasperated by high prices even though inflation has plummeted since peaking at a four-decade high in mid-2022.
>>1339201>line on graph go UP>that mean economy GOODThis is exactly what I mean. Pundits are pointing to a line on a graph while people can't afford groceries or housing. The #1 issue on voters minds is the economy and their wallets, and that is the case for a reason.Lichtman is a sheltered apparatchik at this point if he's giving passing grades to the economy. Lets also not forget:>There is no social unrestFree Palestine protestors at the DNC convention would like a word>There is no scandal in the White HouseHunter Biden, Joe's Cognitive issues being covered up, take your pic>The challenger is uncharismaticHe claims the incumbent does not have charisma but also gives this key to Kamala. Inconsistent within his own system. Trump is far more charismatic than Kamala, it's not even close.>The White House had foreign policy successNone to be found.>The White House had foreign policy failureUkraine, Afghanistan.The only keys Kamala objectively has:>The White House party avoided a primary contest>The White House has enacted major national policy changes
>>1339210you shill better than a 20 dollar whore
>>1339211>no rebuttals, just butthurtYou being the $20 whore in this case?
>>1339211Disagreement is not shilling. Stop being so fragile.
>>1339213lying and being dishonest is though
>>1339215Random accusations are not an argument. Stop being fragile, step outside your bubble and engage with people who disagree with you. It will deepen your understanding of the world and thus make you smarter.
>>1339215Good thing nothing in my post was a lie or dishonest then
>>1339219they're not random, i'm sure you hear the truth as a rebuttal to your lies all the time
>>1339221>, i'm sure you hear the truth as a rebuttal to your lies all the timeYou have provided no evidence or argument, just random accusations. This suggests you have neither an argument or evidence. Instead, you have only feelings.
>>1339223your script bores me
>>1339226You will never be a real woman
>>1339227case in point
>>1339229>actual debate? boring>angrily replying again and again to troon jokes because I can't let it go and must have the last response? sign me up!It seems there's one script that still hasn't bored you. Silly troon.
Low effort bots today
>>1339248you're weird
Trump will make beating looney troons legal.
>>1339260This is exactly why I’m voting Trump.I hope we get a purge day to “correct” the situation.
>>1339194>he was wrong about Trump '16.He said Trump would win in 2016. And he would have gotten 2000 right, but the Republicans stole that election.
>>1339158They use data and numbers to assess these, not opinions and feelings bud.. I know it's tough to understand, but it's all going to be okay. I promise
>>1339196Numbers and data is how they look at these variables. You don't understand because you are not an expert who has dedicated their life to analysis of such sectors.
>>1339196>I don't understand how anybody can look at the economy and think it's in good shape either short or long term, for starters.It's because you're listening to the Republican controlled media who would have you think we're in a Great Depression. It's why 'vibecession' is a thing.
>>1338859You aware Trump will win right
>>1339735You should definitely campaign on that. "The economy is fine, stop whining or you're a Republican."Thats exactly what all of the people who can't afford a house want to hear.
>>1339812The funniest thing in the world is watching people who want Joe Biden to buy them a house complain about Joe Biden's economic policies.
>>1339260Source?
