what happens now?https://www.13keystracker.com
fuck you
>strong short-term economy>strong long-term economylol lmao kikes are a non-serious people
>>475827476I did the keys and it seems to favor Trump.
The keys only have predictive value if you follow the methodology used in previous predictionsAnd by that previous methodology Harris is winning
>>475827476>strong short-term economy>strong long-term economyWhat planet do you live on?
>>475827587>>475828264Key 5: The economy is not in recession during the election campaignKey 6: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms
>>475827921I don't understand how these things are detemined.>no scandalIs a coup against the sitting US president and then selecting a nominee instead of having people vote for her not a scandal? >no social unrestWere those palestine riots not enough?>uncharismatic challengerDo they mean trump? Because I'm pretty sure that his biggest and maybe only selling point is how he draws the attention in any room to himself.
>>475827921>The keys only have predictive value if you follow the methodology used in previous predictionscorrect. Kennedy polling between 4%-12%, similar to Perot in 96https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polling_for_United_States_presidential_electionsas for the scandal, it's the first time in history a president was forced from the ticket, after winning the primary, by his own party (thus rebuking Lichtman's claim that Biden's mental state was only an issue for Republicans)
>>475828463>Were those palestine riots not enough?no because they lasted for only a single day. for example, in 1968 there were abundant flash-race riots, along with a huge riot in Chicago at the DNC.
>>475828463>no scandalchanging nominees because the president withdraws is not a scandalhe doesn't count the hunter stuff because it didn't go anywhere>no social unresthe doesn't consider palestine riots/protests enough. Ofc that key is subjective as to when does it become unrest but protests are not enough>uncharismatic challengerhis meaning of charismatic is like JFK and Obama. again it's subjective but he's considered Trump uncharismatic in all his other predictions including in 2016
>>475828580>forced from the tickethe withdrew on his own.what is the scandal in that?
>>475829240He spend like 3 weeks denying that he would drop out until donors threatened to stop giving him money and his entire party told him to quit?
>>475827476>midterm gainsCan this be even applied this time?Reps gained seats in the house but lost a seat in the senate, it's 50:50.
>>475829301what is the scandal in that?
>>475829334The coup is the scandal.
>>475829331He counts the House not the senate
>>475829368lol cope
>>475829368>Key 9: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.so they are tainted by the scandal that donors told him to withdraw and he did?
>>475829450>the democratically elected candidate has been ousted by megadonors and his own party and that's somehow a scandal?
>>475829334>president is perceived as capable, due to propaganda>president suffers historic blunder, revealing he is incapable>the president publically fights with his party and friendly media for an entire month, arguing over whether or not he is incompetent (mentally retarded)>donors stop donating, campaign in free fall (because he's perceived as a retard)Keep in mind that according to Lictman, Clinton getting a blowjob was a "scandal"so do you consider the Biden scandal as equal or worse than Clinton getting a blowjob?
>>475829548>>475829788dropping out is not a scandal no matter how much you try and make it one.
>>475829548Hunter's problems are more qualifiable as a scandal, Biden can't be blamed for his health problems and there is no clear line for when he is still capable of the function or not, him running for second term was the most favorable and safe option for dems so they went with it until they realized the truth too late.Trump is also old and beginning to do mistakes too although not noticeable, would be funny if he won, his mental health went to shit and his voters were the ones defending a senile boomer.
>>475830272You're retarded
>>475830272you are braindead man
>>475830272According to that logic what bill clinton did was also not a scandal since he stepped down himself.
>>475830398>can't be blamed for his health problems>can't be blamed>can't be>can'tyes he can be blamed, mostly for the coverup, along with all his supporters and the party potentates, plus their lackies in the media. the can and must be blamed for the greatest scandal in US history
>>475830419>>475830492no one anywhere outside of this thread is calling it a scandalwhat is the term for this scandal"dropout gate" ?morons
>>475830272The multi year cover up of the president’s retardation is the scandal, a level of retardation that they’ve known for years would disable him from serving a second term.
>>475830562no moron>Key 9: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.Clinton was still the incumbent administration when Al Gore ranHow are you people so dumb?
>>475830648They're calling it a coup, because that's what it is.
>>475830730>The multi year cover up of the president’s retardation is the scandalThere's no proof that he covered it up and again it's not considered a scandal just because you think so.I could say it's a scandal that he gives money to israel but it doesn't make it so
>>475830794>Clinton was still the incumbent administrationAnd biden was not the incumbent administration when he was ousted by his own party?
>>475830648>no one anywhere outside of this thread is calling it a scandal>no one in the corporate media in service of the dems are calling it as it is>the people who lied about his condition from the get-go, covering it up at every turnimagine my shock shill
>>475830807Let's try again because you are ultra retarded>Key 9: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.so the Biden administration is tainted by what?
>>475830940>And biden was not the incumbent administration when he was ousted by his own party?he freudian slipped that Joepedo was never in control... next stop: he admits Joepedo was installed, not elected
>>475827921The methodology is pure astrology. Keys 4,5 and 6 all turn for Trump. Lichtmann was wrong in 2000 and 2016. He'll be wrong in 2024 as well.
>>475830583Refusal to give up power when appropriate is a very common thing, especially for boomers, but it's not a scandal. Our country went through the same shit few years ago. Can't wait for the same situation with old Trump.>greatest scandal in US historylol you're not even american
>>475831044Years of covering up his mental decline until his own party staged a coup and installed another puppet, forgoing the democractic process.
>>475830940Yes he's the incumbent administrationand what scandal is he tainted by you dumb fuck?>ousted by his own partyhow the fuck is that a scandal you retard??
>>475831105>lol you're not even americanluckily, you are... oh wait!
>>475831139You know what, I'm not drunk enough to sit here and argue with a paid shill why a coup is a scandal. Lets agree to disagree.
>>475831008the same could be said about the hunter stuffShould it have been a major scandal? YesBut it never left Fox News. Littman is not predicting things based on what /pol/ thinks
>>475830272You keep saying he "dropped out" like it was his decision. That's simply not the case.
>>475831180At least I'm not defining the greatest scandal in the US history when I don't even live there you mongoloid
>>475831096He predicted 2016 for Trumphttps://www.american.edu/media/news/092616-13-keys-prediction.cfm
>>475831225Let's say he was told by donorsIt's still not a scandal and no one anywhere thinks it is
>>475828433>key 5lol
>>475831222>But it never left Fox News.tell me you are a leftard living in his leftard bubble without telling me so>>475831269so if I lived there, then I would be right? yes, every single person living in any given country has the same opinion on every single topic... because they liver there!!!
>>475831324It's a scandal for Biden's supporters who don't want Kamala running
>>475831139>and what scandal is he tainted by you dumb fuck?ousted by his own party in a very public humiliation.so Clinton getting a blowjob was a scandal, but this isn't?
>>475831338Officially it's not in a recessionIf you think it is feel free to show that it isI'm not saying the economy is great but then again the key isn't saying "just pick what you feel the economy is"
>>475831470The only thing that matters is what the voters think, not whatever spin the government is peddling at any given moment
>>475831434>so Clinton getting a blowjob was a scandal, but this isn't?It's literally called the Lewinsky scandal.What are we calling it? Dropoutgate?The dropout scandal?
>>475831222the same can not be said about muh hunter biden. Republicans think Biden is a retardDemocrats found out Biden was a retard, and pressured him from the ticket>bipartisan?yep>"impropriety"yep>JOEVERYUPkeep in mind Kennedy will get at least 5%, so this isn't even relevant
>>475831562well Lichtman doesn't use "what voters think" in his methodologyand guess whatyou don't have to agree with his methodology you stupid fuck
>>475831569>Dropoutgatenice name ngl. but it's called the entire media, donors, and party calling you a retard and pressuring you into submission (public humiliation)but it isn't a scandal because there isn't a "bazinga" headline for it?
>>475831470honestly, i believe that you're a dane. only a dane can be so utterly fucking retarded not to be able to grasp that actual human beings don't eat up what the govt says because actual human beings navigate in life based on their own experiences e.g. groceries and fucking gas prices going thru the roof under Joepedo. but how could a collectivist scandinavian ever hope to understand the individualistic avg american?
>>475831677What voters think is the only thing that matters. Your tantrum is evident of this.
>>475831580being a retard is not a scandal according to Lichtman's methodologyas you can see in his 2004 predictionhttps://www.socialstudies.org/system/files/publications/articles/se_6801009.pdf
>>475831799The scandal is both that he was senile and they attempted (unsuccessfully) to cover up his senility
>>475831718>human beings navigate in life based on their own experiencesWell apparently Litchman doesn't do that when making election predictions.retard
>>475831682>but it's called the entire media, donors, and party calling you a retardHim being an old retard is not a scandalIt's just him being an old retard. If there was a key that said "is the incumbent an old retad" ? then it would be relevantBut the key is about a scandal.and dropping out is not a scandal
>>4758284335 is true for now6 is not true when inflation-adjusted, I don't believe that at all. Maybe if you do kike math for Trump's term and count the covid dip, but that is the only way. The covid bounce back was extreme and immediate so it doesn't count
>>475831901here's your Lichman
>>475831984>Maybe if you do kike math for Trump's term and count the covid dipI looked that up once but i can't remember. But either way Lichtman use the official numbers.Again you can disagree with that but that's his methodology and based on that key 6 is true.
>>475829368No one cares about that except for chuds who were already going to vote trump
>>475832069He said Biden can still win. I believe it.
>>475831273Trump lost the popular vote. Lichtman was wrong.
>>475832207It's foolhardy to replace Biden at this point. The party must unite behind him. He can still win.
>>475831897>being senile is a scandalwow so many scandals in retirement homeswhy are aboniggers allowed to have internet access?
>>475832318>Prof. Lichtman’s 13 Keys system predicts the winner of the presidential race, not the outcome of the popular vote
>>475832185This is BLM. >>475830807 This is not "chuds". This is the complete opposite on the political spectrum.
>>475832382
>>475831096>>475831273Either way, anyone who follows the economy knows that as far as the voting public is concerned, we’re in a recession. 4,5 and 6 have to be for Trump
>>475832506>It's JoeverIt's HoeverThey're Demo-lished
>>475832598I would tend to agree but that's not the methodologyIf Lichtman sat down every year and said "what does the average person think about the economy" then maybe the keys would be different.If that's a model you want to make then go ahead
>>475832506The Joevergate scandal
>>475827921>dementia-riddled president is kicked out at the last minute before the primaries>no scandal
>>475830648i never post. fifteen years of pure lurking.i have been incited to do so on account of your obtrusive retardation.
>>475833004
>>475832347Don't care still ridin' with Biden
>>475828463>Is a coup against the sitting US president and then selecting a nominee instead of having people vote for her not a scandal?No because that's what everyone wanted. It's a correction to a no contest primary. >Palestine riotsWhere? College campus protests are not social unrest. No one really gives a shit. No one sees them except on fox news >uncharismaticThis is a fair point but Trump is a shadow of himself.
>>475829301>>475829240Republicans are desperate to make it a scandal because they are a dragged down by an actual coup attempt. I can understand how a Germ whose only exposure to Americans is /pol/ would fall for it.
>>475827476Trump wins. Kamala doesn't want to win and neither does her own party
>>475830562Bill Clinton didn't step down. He ejaculated in a woman's mouth and lied about it under perjury. This was a huge scandal in the 1990s when our standards were higher.
>>475831677”Lichtman cites the early 1990s recession as an example: the recession had ended in March 1991, but a Gallup poll in September 1992 found that 79% of respondents believed the economy was still in recession, turning the key false for George H. W. Bush.”
>>475830583>the greatest scandal in US historylol you don't know anything about US history
>>475833667nobody but news brainrotted faggots thinks fucking a bitch is a scandal.ill cum in your mouth too
>>475831342No one gives a shit about Hunter Biden except Fox News. He's right. We all know about it but no one cares.
>>475833908>t. Zoomer It was. Wearing a bikini used to be scanadalous too. You'll never understand anything you didn't personally experience as a meme on 4chan.
'fraid so
>>475833324>>475833544>>475833667>>475833826>>475834140>>475834271>6 posts in 15 minutesyeah I'm not reading your shit. It's okay if you support a coup, no matter how much they pay you, you are not convincing me
I was a little kid and i saw the Lewinsky stuff on the Danish news.
>>475834338nobody cares what you think massreplying faggot, you're not voting anyway
>>475833544Your assasination attempt failed so hard it took out the wrong president
>>475834456If nobody cared then the nigger wouldn't reply to me 3 fucking times in 5 minutes.
>>475834338Are you that bothered by learning?
>>475831562>The only thing that matters is what the voters think, not whatever spin the government is peddling at any given momentbut they think the economy is great. That's why they are spending as if the economy was great because it is. But half of them have to say it's bad because they can't admit demonrat Joe PedoBiden and Laughing Kamala did something good. US economy is in great shape by all objective and even subjective measures (customers behavior)
Lichtman>The scandal key is true because some retards on 4chan thinks dropping out of an election is a scandal
>>475834738Learning would imply that there is information to be learned. You are spouting rapidfire propaganda at me hoping I somehow completely ignore my position on things and adopt yours. I'm not interested. Shit like >Is a coup>No because that's what everyone wantedIs not information, it's gaslighting. Biden was democratically elected. Biden was the one who won the nomination of his party. Kamala was installed after biden was ousted. Not by voters, but by people in power. If you held a vote it might very well be that the result would've been the same, but at least it would've been according to the will of the people, not the will of the political elites.
>>475834891American elections are decided by American normies. I'm the closest you're going to get.>yeah I'm not reading your shit.You don't have to lie on an anonymous chat board.
>>475834891>Kamala was installed after biden was oustedBiden is still the president he's just not running for reelectionKamala is running for president when she gets nominated at the convention which she will because the entire party is backing her And Biden will be honored at the same convention as the 2nd greatest president of all time (after Obama)Not a scandal
>>475834891You're not supposed to ask questions like "shouldn't we let the voters pick Harris instead of Biden?" and "should the white house doctor be prosecuted for covering-up biden's dementia?"
>>475835130not in lichtman's 13 keys
>>475835130>shouldn't we let the voters pick Harris instead of Biden?but they are okay with that. Only republicans have a problem with this change because their only strategy for this election was saying how old biden is 24/7
>>475834891Many of your basic facts are wrong. You don't have to like how Biden went out but some of these things haven't even happened.>Biden was democratically elected. In 2020. Primary nomination jasnt happened.>Biden was the one who won the nomination of his party. He was given free beardth to run unopposed as the incumbent but he was not nominated. They happens at the convention. He has dropped out, under pressure, but he has dropped out.>Kamala was installed after biden was ousted. Not by voters, but by people in power. If you held a vote it might very well be that the result would've been the same, but at least it would've been according to the will of the people, not the will of the political elites.This is a fair point but Kamala Harris received every vote Joe Biden did. She has the most democratic legitimacy to win the nomination of anyone. Someone else could still win the nomination but no one has the support in place. Democrats failed to have other options because they're incompetent, but that doesn't change the reality now.
>>475834271you could work on your modes of rhetoric devicest.zoomer or whatever
>>475835328Hold on to your tiny little shithole pole, cuz Putin is going to nuke you next.
>>475832598>anyone who follows the economy knows that as far as the voting public is concerned, we’re in a recessionmeds
>>475833324Faggot are you seriously implying what America has wanted for 10 years now hasn't been to see Trump vs Bernie?You want to seriously claim that the Democratic party hasn't fucked over their constituents and put through their own candidates, completely disregarding their will?
>>475835666>Key 14: did america get the match up they wanted to see you faggots?
>>475835525kek
>>475835666Bernie is for reddit communists. He's also not running for president.No, the democratic party didn't fuck over its constituents. Joe Biden did by running in the first place. He didn't coup himself out. He got too old and demented to keep the party.
>>475827476Sorry chuds, but everyone knows now that Kamala is brat she's going to do a clean sweep. This is the current map once Drumpf is found guilty for all of his crimes. With Prosecutor Harris leading the charge, no amount of Israeli dick sucking can save Drumpf from imprisonment. Drumpfy boy better start getting ready for prison. No more McDonalds for you Mr. Drumpf! But be sure to bend over for Tyrone and his gang as they give you their black votes in the shower. LOL!
>>475836018Except that every time that he ran for primaries, he was winning until they fucked him over. In 2016 with super delegates, and in 2020 using COVID as an excuse to shut down the primaries. The democratic party has super delegates. That is the most oligarchic thing I have ever heard of. Faggot shills like you are the reason you can't get a simple government health insurance in Muttland.
>>475827476https://x.com/AllanLichtman/status/1816847990566666389The guy who made this flat out said Harris is heavily favored to win Also most people don’t understand the keys at all. They think No Third Party = literally no third party candidate running at all, when in reality it means no third party polls consistently at 10% or more, which would poise them to take 5% or more of the popular vote. Charismatic doesn’t mean the candidate has a fanbase, it means they are universally praised by both parties. And so on
>Key 15: does the incumbent party have super delegates (the most oligarchic thing I have ever heard of)
>>475836097good bait, checked
>>475836593Some people seem to think you just stick what ever opinion you have in the keysthey are too low IQ to understand the concept of methodology
>>475836814You can shove your math and methodology tricknology up your asshole. I really don't give a fuck about it.
>>475836814What's your metric for "strong short term economy"? Because people on the streets can't afford to buy groceries or a home.
the danish lichtman defender thinks this thread is its blog, again
>>475837118He literally defines it as “no recession, or widespread perception of a recession”Wikipedia is your friend
>>475837118People on the streets don't vote.>>475837222I like him. He's funny.
>>475837222>the danish lichtman defenderwhere did i defend him?i'm telling you to use his methodology If you don't want to then fine don't but then why argue over his model?Make your own model
>>475837608But aren't we in a recession and a massive inflation crisis. So how in the fuck does this chart show the economy as blue.? Doesn't this show the author lives in a fantasy or am I completely retarded here? >>475837612>People on the streets don't vote.Who votes then? Dead Democrats? Illegal immigrants?
>>475837612By people on the streets I mean normal people you square.
>>475827587Were doing great here in America. At least me me and most all my friends and family.
>>475827476>>475831470>Key 5: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign>Key 6: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms>Officially it's not in a recessionThats some literal pic related tier retardation.So as long as you don't have some kike admitting that the economy is in shambles, 1929 would've been just another year.As long as nobody actually steps out and admits "shit's on fire yo!" or "the emperor has no clothes!", and obviously truthful statement that everyone who has functioning eyes can observe and verify for themselfes, everything is doing fine, thats your logic?The only one who's doing great in this economy are 0.1% rich jewish assholes, and maybe 60+yo boomers, because their McMansion (that they bought 40 years ago for 2 dimes, a sack of onions, and a warm handshake) went up another few thousand in value this moring while they were out golfing.Inflation has been stuck at like 30%/year for the past 4 years.I don't give a fuck what "official stats" say about that. Average Normie Joe doesn't notice inflation by looking at some statistic published by the government or some financial institution.They notice inflation by... you know... looking at the actual price tags in the stores when he goes grocery shopping.And there prices have literally 2-3x'ed in the last 4 years, while wages havent.There was a Tiktok trend a few weeks ago where people find old orders on their Wallmart app or some shit from like 2019 or 2020, and when they press the "order again" button in the app, the bill suddenly jumps from $100 to $300 for the exact same quantity of products.
>>475838088>But aren't we in a recessionOfficially the US is not in a recessionA recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth
>>475838529on one hand i agree that the numbers might be fake but at the same time then these fake numbers are the same fake numbers you got under the other presidents.Unless you think they invented new Biden numbers.It's possible that there would be a better way to measure the economic effect on voting than using GDP
>>475838529>as you don't have some kike admitting that the economy is in shamblesThis, exactly this.
