For anyone who is curious on early voting, I started doing a basic analysis of 2020 vs 2024. I’m using data from here: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/I’m comparing what the democrat lead was in 2020 compared to what it is now at the same point in time. I also added 2020 election results to see how much the 2020 margin has been cut into. Numbers in negative are good outcomes (Trump winning) and the change is how many votes he’s “picking up” vs 2020. Same goes for the red highlights, those are good. Complain about my formatting if you want, that’s fine. I intend to update each day this week for my own interest. If this post gains any traction I’ll post updates each evening. First, some caveats>Picking only the swing states (plus VA because I’m curious).>Some states don’t have party registration available. These are the gray highlights. I’m skeptical of the “modeled party” assumption they use.>Data is on a 1 day lag.>Independent split. Any independents or others I split 54-41 to democrats based on national exit polls.>National split isn’t accurate but I don’t want to spend the time on each state’s split. This is a favorable assumption to democrats>Doesn’t factor in voter registration changesFrom the results I grabbed this morning, it’s showing straight up republican leads in AZ, GA, and NV. Republicans led in early voting in GA in 2020 also, so I’m not getting too excited about that. What I do find interesting is if you add the net gain in votes to the 2020 final margins, Trump has flipped AZ, GA, NV, and PA. He increased his lead in NC. This data is also showing he loses MI and WI by more, which logically I’m having a hard time following (these use “modeled party”). Focusing on the states where we DO have voter registration, all four are showing positive signs, especially in PA.Assuming election day is similar to 2020 and republican turnout is higher (always is), this puts the final at 287 to 251.>cont’d
Now onto the fun part, turnout. 2020 turnout was weird, we all know that. 2020 final results were fake and gay, we all know that. However, using that as a baseline I compared 2024 early voting turnout as a percent of 2020 for each party. Early voting is down across the board, except GA, which isn’t surprising. The promising thing is republican turnout isn’t up over 2020, except for a slight increase in PA. Meaning that they aren’t cannibalizing their election day votes, in theory. This does mean that more dems could vote on election day as well, but that’s generally not the case and they certainly prefer early/mail in voting. If we focus on just the four states with voter registration available (AZ, NC, NV, PA) you see significantly lower D turnout, with just as many R’s or more available on election day as in 2020, and margins already significantly cut into from 2020. Logically, lower democrat turnout can be explained by no one liking Harris and no covid to rile them up. If election day goes the exact same, Trump wins these four states fairly comfortably. Obviously it won’t be the exact same, but it should still be in favor of republicans. Another thing to consider is this doesn’t factor in voter registration shifts which were net positives towards R's.The only “realistic” explanation for Harris winning would be exceptionally high election day democrat turnout. That’s possible, possible for the media to spin this to cover for fraud, but not an easy sell. The other option is a significant portion of republicans vote for Harris, which makes no sense given Trump’s approval ratings within the party and his performance the last two elections.None of this accounts for cheating, but even with the cheated margins from 2020 Trump is looking good at this point.
>>486231609Regarding swing the Midwest, there are a lot more Trump democrats there, so the registered party on the ballot requestee is probably less likely to match the vote than in sunbelt states where people are newly registered.
>>486231609>>486231679
It looks like bullshit so I believe it.
>>486231679>The only “realistic” explanation for Harris winning would be exceptionally high election day democrat turnout.It would be funny but also frustrating if this happened, given that the #1 argument they made for the bullshit in 2020 was "Democrats voted early/used mail-ins way more often because Republicans don't trust it!"
>>486231609Bump.Thank you.
>>486231609The joy is gone
>>486231921That's a good point and I agree with you. I'm trying to be pessimistic in estimates, but I think this does factor in. >>486232644What's bullshit about it? Just curious what you are questioning.>>486232789No problem fren. I hope people like it and I'll post every night this week. I find it helpful at least.
thanks for the bump faggot >486232920
>>486232920>example #6849514 of the left being unable to memeWhat's inconsistent about 2020 being rigged, but Trump doing so much better that he's overcoming the rigging from 2020. AZ was 10k votes and GA was 11k, not hard to pick up that many votes.Doesn't mean it can't be rigged again either.
>>486232920If only you knew how bad you're losing
>>486232817Joy status Kalmala sisters?
>>486231609>>486231679FUCK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!
>>486233278There was only a 10k vote difference because they only faked as many ballots as they needed to flip the results. It doesn't mean they couldn't make more fake ballots if they needed.
>>486233501Lmao you lostjust relax and play video games
the cheating wasnt just the margins. they needed millions of fake biden ballots and to discount millions of trump ballots just to get to the 10pm count where trump was still winning.
>>486233625nope. they were faling ballots all over the country the whole time. in a metered beleivable way to hide their activeties. then comes the 10pm vote count closure, and then the batches that were 100% biden. they voted like hell in a professional way and it wasnt enough. then they had to cheat like morons at the last second to clinch it. 2 waves of cheating.the first wave, importsntly rewuire the actions of many free agents acting on their own or in their own groups towards the collective cheating effort without orders from the top. these people beleive cheating for democrats is a moral obligation. many of them dont beleive that anymore, and now their last ditch cheating will be impossible to commit in a physical sense. they cannot store and count enough fake ballots.
>>486233625Agreed and I admit that. However the more votes they have to fake the harder it is
is the word "cheat" being auto corrected to "vote"?
>>486234502ok just checking.>>486234449>they cheated like hell
>486232920>The most popular President ever by votes is also the one with record breaking negative approval rating who's only bested by an even more unpopular vice-president which also is the most unpopular vice President in history who incidentally what the democrats couped the most popular President with only 4 months to re-election, and the most unpopular vice President in recorded history is reduced to having the most unpopular politician of all time who lost her re-election campaign by a 38 point margin, unheard of before, setting the record for the biggest loss of a congressional campaign in all two and a half centuries of recorded American history, and Liz Cheney is now begging neocon war monger dubaya to also join her and her father, Dick Cheney and with Obama they can't even get media endorsements with record setting refusal from LA Times, WaPo, USA Today and TB Times as early voting has democrats not showing up and republicans blowing them out in early voting, which is another record.
>>486235649
Since there seems to be moderate interest I'll post the updated numbers tomorrow
Massachusetts reporting in, lots of Trump support here. Even saw some Trump billboards, there's one on Rt 1 NB in Wrentham.
>>486234449>they cannot store and count enough fake ballots.Dumdum,The ballot reading equipment is based on Factional Voting and not a 1 vote = 1 ballot. All they need to do, like they did in 2020 is tweak the ratios your one trump vote is now .10 to trump and .90 to the hoe. None of this has been addressed. As far as paper ballots, they can and have printed millions of them and can be delivered anywhere. You seem to forget 2020.
>>486237719Thanks anon. You are appreciated. Will pray for your safety.
>>486239256Of course. I'm glad people like it
>>486239443
>>486231609>>486231679Good work, OP, but for as good as all this looks, I've still got a nagging feeling we're just gonna have a repeat of 2020 with the entire rust belt saying they won't be called on election night. I think if the race isn't called for Trump by midnight then there's no reason to believe they won't just spend another week counting like last time. Hope for the best, I guess.
>>486239801Unfortunately I think the same thing will happen. My hope it's too large of a lead to overcome.Why I think that's possible is I'm giving a generous independent split to Harris and Republicans have a net gain in registered voters in most if not all of these states. It's like 150-200k in PA alone.
>>486239801they don't have the number of votes to do that2020/Covid caused a massive record number of mail-ins that won't ever be matched again with the current populationand to be fair, it does take a lot of time to go through that record number of mail-ins especially when it's unexpected
>>486237766Even in mega lib/jewish towns like Belmont or Natick there's a decent amount of Trump support and barely any for Harris. Compared to 2020 where just about every house in Belmont had a Biden sign I've seen maybe 10/20 in town with a Harris sign and a handful of Trump ones.
>>486239801My only hope is that if they try it again this time the Supreme Court or whoever actually decides to do something about it and shut it down
>>486240398that wouldn't be unprecedentedthe Supreme Court basically decided when Florida had to stop counting votes
>>486237719Bless you, OP. One small favor: can you add NY to the next batch of numbers? I've heard rumors that it’s close to being in play but I’m curious how true that is
>>486231609You fucked up the margin on Michigan
>>486240201One thing that makes me a little hopeful is the added pressure on election officials this go around. With all the lookout for fraud, some of them might find the juice isn't worth the squeeze; I doubt they're eager to potentially sacrifice what little good will they have left just to install some bitch who was a joke in her own party for years.Still, I don't know. But if 'Too Big to Rig' turns out be just more than a meme, I'll eat my words. I look forward to further reports from you throughout the week.
>>486237719>>486240484I say New Hampshire should be added to the analysis for the hell of it. It does this cocktease on going red every election only to end like D+14, but who knows it could be legit this time.
>>486231609>>486231679Nice, ty for you efforts
>>486231609The thing about GA isn’t so much Ds or Rs winning or losing early voting, but in the demographics of voting. GA is trending towards a much whiter, more suburban electorate than in 2020. I actually feel substantially more confident about it than I do PA at the moment
>>486240484I added NY but won't keep it going forward. It's a massive deficit to overcome, I wouldn't bank on it.>>486241482Good call on NH. It's about a 10k deficit right now compared to losing by 59k. Trump only lost by 3k in 2016. So it's close.>>486241727Happy to help out>>486240719Yeah I'm hoping the scrutiny for last time helps now. Also I can see them stopping this time because Harris is awful, acting like elections are fine, and then ramp it up again in 2028. We need better voter laws between now and then if Trump wins and R's win congress.>>486240645I did? How so?
>>486241482One other interesting thing about NH is how much mail in/early voting is down. Dems are at 25% and Reps are at 50% of 2020 turnout.Assuming election day is in favor of republicans, like it normally is, NH is certainly in contention.
>>486239801I think cheaters this year need to worry about their own turning on them. They'll be collecting evidence this time and voting for Trump.
>>486242913The more I look at this data the worse it gets for Ds. There’s just no way in hell these aren’t new Republican voters with numbers like that.
>>486231679>Early voting is down across the board, except GA, which isn’t surprisingWhat is unsurprising? Early voting being down across the board? I get that because of covid or is GA up in early voting unsurprising? If so, why?
>>486242697NH is chock full of fence sitters... and now those fence sitters are absolutely pissed off about the housing market and immigration.We went from 250k at 3% for a nice 3bd2bath w/ attached garage to 550k at 7% in just a few years. Literally quadruple the monthly cost for the same house. There are thousands and thousands of millennial/zillenials who feel like they were cheated out of buying a house as soon as biden took the reigns.
>>486231609TRUMP BROKE THE DIARRHEA QUEEN
>>486243855So people are still stuck renting the same shitty multi-family as they were in 2020, but now their neighbors are all spics and nigs who smoke indoors and play loud music all night.Oh, and the rent has nearly doubled too. People are pissed at the housing situation here.
>>486231609Dude this analysis is completely meaningless. 2020 was during a global pandemic. Voting patterns also changed after VBM and EV was normalized.I'm pretty confident Republicans are gonna win, but comparing to 2016 or 2020 is dumb as fuck.
Closing thoughts before I call it a day.1. I wouldn't read too much into the "modeled party" states which are the gray highlights. Numbers say it's worse for Trump in MI and WI but that's contrary to polls, other states, and common sense.2. Thank you all for the feedback tonight. I will post an update tomorrow and keep doing it the rest of the week.3. Steelers going to the fucking super bowl
>>4862440132024 EV in terms of turnout has been fairly in line with 2020, it’s the ratios that are skewed universally right. Unless you think blacks are going to turn out in huge numbers on Election Day, which would be truly unprecedented, then this data is a valuable predictive tool.
>>486243146Same here man. It's part of the reason I posted this. Not to look for validation but criticism to see if I'm missing anything. I don't think I am though.>>486243483My bad that was poorly worded. I meant that it's not surprising that early voting is down across the board. Georgia is not down meaningfully and is excluded from that statement.>>486243855I could see that. Everyone was better off financially 4 years ago. No amount of lying can change that.
>>486244326Republicans started encouraging their base to vote early (especially PA and GA where there's been a massive effort). It's impossible to know where the shift is due canabalization of election day vote or a true shift. Like I said, I think Republicans will win, but this analysis is shoddy.
>>486231609https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DDQ6ZPBT
>>486244013>2020 was during a global pandemicpic related>Voting patterns also changed after VBM and EV was normalizedYou can't have it both ways. Either those were normalized and therefore 2020 is a valid comparison, or that was a one time anomaly but then VBM and EV wasn't normalized.I'm all for pointing out flaws in my analysis. But you'll have to do better than that.>>486244610> It's impossible to know where the shift is due canabalization of election day vote or a true shift.No it's not and I address that in my second post. GA is about the exact same as 2020 for both parties. In PA republicans have 105% turnout (17k more voters) while they also added over 150k net registered voters. There's still just as many R's available to vote on election day.
>>486244217>3. Steelers going to the fucking super bowlI may have been premature lol
>>486244217>Steelers going to the fucking super bowl If there’s one team who’s bullshit powers can defeat KC its them You will lose to the Loins in the owl though I don’t make the rules
>>486231609Doing Kek’s work, anon
>>486245065No believe in Steelers bullshit
>>486244875>You can't have it both ways. Either those were normalized and therefore 2020 is a valid comparison, or that was a one time anomaly but then VBM and EV wasn't normalized.This is a false dichotomy. It's pretty obvious that that voting patterns have changed. But this does not mean a direction comparison to 2020 is valid. You don't know what the actual change is. I expect in PA for example for the EV to fall somewhere between 2020 and 2016.
>>486245078I would be perfectly happy with that. >>486245098Glad you like it anonWell I'm calling it day officially. See you guys tomorrow.
>>486245280There were 1.4M EVs in PA in 2020. We’re at 1.2M EVs in PA right now. It’s a fair comparison
>>486245717Not sure what you're looking at. There were 2,618,312 mail votes in PA in 2020. We're going to be well short of that this year. I expect the mail vote to skewed more republican than in 2020, but again, it's impossible to know how much of that is due to more republicans voting early.
>>486242697Add New Jersey too, it's been hopelessly blue for ages, but I'm curious
>>486231609idk why vote early and show your hand. imma send that trump ballot in on the last day to make sure it's the ultimate curveball. As the silent majority always has done, not this nuGOP
>>4862461002.6M is correct.https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html
>>486237719Go for it.
>>486231609Best thread of the week. Keep up the good work OP
>>486231609I actually did a very similar exercise with polling vs actual voting results.For the 7 swing states, I looked at where Trump is in the polls right now, then looked at the actual election result, and gave him that difference in percentage points today. So for example, if Trump was down in a state by 2% in the polls one week before the election, but in the election he actually wins that state by 3%, then it was a +5% swing in his favor. I only did this for the 7 swing states because there's almost zero chance any other states flip.Now, because I believe the Dems will try some shenanigans, I gave Trump the states where he was leading by at least 5%. If he had less than a 5% lead in any state, I gave it to Harris.The result is Civil War II. Try it yourself, I checked multiple times. This can actually happen with ONLY the 7 swing states.
>>486250820>For the 7 swing states, I looked at where Trump is in the polls right now, then looked at the actual election result, and gave him that difference in percentage points todayI meant to say looking at the 2016 and 2020 elections to calculate the difference between polls and actual voting results.
>>486231609based effortposter
>>486231609>Mail in ballot flips blue
>>486250820>picFor future reference, that scenario results in the House choosing POTUS (one vote per state) and the Senate choosing VP. There’s more Republican states than Democrat but the Senate is Dem majority currently so there’s a nonzero chance you’d end up with a Trump/Walz administration at the end of that clusterfuck and there’s few things I would find funnier than that
Op:Might Trump win the popular vote?
>>486231609>states flipping redWait hang on, I think we found even more boxes of uncounted ballots for Kamala!Anon please do something more valuable with your time. Analytics are pointless now that they can do mail in ballots. Mail in ballots cannot be secured.
>>486233278>he's overcoming the rigging from 2020Wait hang on... I think we've got more votes to count!
>>486231609Your indie split is too big. >swing states have closer spread>kamala do g worse with them than Biden>dem turnout is down which means their learners are much less likely to turn out
>>486231679>and they certainly prefer early/mail in voting.thats because you cant cheat if you vote in person
>>486231609I still need 24 more hours to fin...I mean count all votes
