ack again for the last update. I had threads four nights last week that gained traction. I didn't post over the weekend because I was busy. For those still following here is an update with data through yesterday. For anyone new, here is the same summary.For anyone who is curious on early voting, I started doing a basic analysis of 2020 vs 2024. I’m using data from here: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/I’m comparing what the democrat lead was in 2020 compared to what it is now at the same point in time. I also added 2020 election results to see how much the 2020 margin has been cut into. Numbers in negative are good outcomes (Trump winning) and the change is how many votes he’s “picking up” vs 2020.First, some caveats>Picking only the swing states (plus VA because I’m curious and NH and NJ at request).>Some states don’t have party registration available. These are the gray highlights. I’m skeptical of the “modeled party” assumption they use.>Data is on a 1 day lag.>Independent split. Any independents or others I split 54-41 to democrats based on national exit polls.>National split isn’t accurate but I don’t want to spend the time on each state’s split. This is a favorable assumption to democrats>Doesn’t factor in voter registration changesThis is mostly the same conclusions as last week. Trump leads straight up in AZ, GA, and NV (barely) with early voting. With the net gain in votes vs 2020 margins, he's flipped AZ, NV and PA. Trump also led in GA by more votes in 2020, so he's actually losing it by more now. This data is also showing he continues to lose MI and WI by more. Since they use "modeled party" I'm skeptical of the data. Focusing on the states where we DO have voter registration, AZ, NC, NV, and PA are all showing positive signs, especially in PA. NH is interesting because he's only need to pick up 9,100 votes vs 2020, and he only lost by 3,000 in 2016, so it's in play at least.
>>486956042Love your work anon. Prepare to counterbump as shills specifically try to slide these threads.Very confident about tomorrow.
>>486956042Thank you for the updates Anon, can't get work done today just waiting for more updaterinos.
Here is turnout. This is the more interesting piece for me because it shows how much lower Dem turnout is. Republican turnout is also down, but down by less, and still below 2020 in total. This means there are just as many available to vote on election day as 2020 (i.e. no vote cannibalization). This also means there are more Dems available to vote, but they vastly prefer early voting. I think Democrat election day turnout will be poor, or at least no better than 2016 or 2020, because Harris is unlikable and there is no covid to rile them up. Pure speculation by me though.Now on the data. If election day goes the exact same, Trump wins these AZ, NV, PA fairly comfortably. Obviously it won’t be the exact same, but it should still be in favor of republicans. Another thing to consider is this doesn’t factor in voter registration shifts which were net positives towards R's.None of this accounts for cheating, but even with the cheated margins from 2020 Trump is looking good at this point. I fully expect some shenanigans tomorrow which will fuck up any sort of analysis or predictions. I also think Trump is set up to beat the 2020 margins + 2020 rigging which gives him the win. There will need to be substantially more rigging than 2020 (which I think is unlikely), or a significant chunk of his previous supporters break for Harris (which I think is also unlikely).Interested to hear any thoughts. Hope this stays up for the guys who had been commenting on it last week
Van Line Services is the moving truck company that was spotted at a Fulton County, Georgia ballot drop off location by a poll watcher. The poll watcher was the very first poll watcher to arrive at the location after controversy and an order from a state supreme court judge to disclose the location of the site and allow poll watchers; she saw a total of 6 moving trucks from this same company (Van Line Services) enter and leave the drop off hub she caught some of it on video in webm related.This xitter user has found a connection between the company and the very same Pennsylvania county where the District Attorney Heather Adams announced thousands of fraudulent voter registration and absentee ballot request forms submitted to the county by an Arizona Democrat linked company known as Fieldcorps LLC which is run by the vice mayor of Mesa AZ (A democrat) and has connections straight to the governors office.It turns out the Logistics Manager for Van Line Services is also a customer service manager for "Vaccinate Lancaster County Pennsylvania"https://x.com/DecentBackup/status/1853115700467921034There is a very clear connection between the suspicious activity in Atlanta Georgia and the now confirmed MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF VOTER FRAUD in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. And it all leads back to the Governors office in Arizona.
>>486956042Bump for Trump
>>486956205>>486956377Glad you guys are still tuned in for it.>>486956541Dude make a separate thread. Rigging is happening. We know it will, the question is how much. This is an entirely different topic.
https://archive.is/IdPDIhttps://archive.is/bDsv2https://archive.is/7srbAFrancisco Heredia is the owner of Fieldcorps LLC which is being charged with attempting to forge THOUSANDS of ballots in Pennsylvania by the DAs office(s) of the; Lancaster, Cambria, York, and Monroe counties. They have already verified over 1800 fraudulent applications for ballots all created by Field Corps LLC.https://archive.is/U60EnAdrian Fontes in 2017 who was then the Maricopa County Recorder hired Francisco Heredia as the "Face of voter integrity" (heh). Adrian Fontes would later go on to become Secretary of State in Arizona and Heredia got an upgrade to Vice Mayor of Mesa, AZ!https://archive.is/wkkvTFrancisco Heredias wife was appointed by the Governor Katie Hobbs on December 23rd, 2022 as director of Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System (AHCCCS), Arizona’s Medicaid and CHIP Program. You scratch my back and I scratch yours!https://archive.is/39YYcFrancisco Heredia also owns a COMMERCIAL PRINT SHOP which would be handy if you were committing voter fraud and it lists a Eduardo Sainz as the sole employee. Eduardo Sainz is also listed as the COO of Fieldcorps LLC.Previous thread:https://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/486596320VIDEOS:https://files.catbox.moe/p38y3t.mp4https://files.catbox.moe/633ngi.mp4https://files.catbox.moe/nrz4et.mp4
REMINDER THAT THE LOCATION THE VANS WERE SEEN AT IS THE SAME LOCATION THAT THE FULTON COUNTY REGISTRATIONS MANAGER TOLD HER EMPLOYEES IN AN EMAIL THIS WEEK TO NOT ALLOW POLL WATCHER.THIS EMAIL TELLING COUNTY OFFICIALS TO NOT ALLOW POLL WATCHER BY ITSELF IS A CLASS 5 FELONY!
>>486956042>>486956443>trying to seriously analyze a fake clown circus where the jews draw whatever final number they wantYou guys never learn do you?
>>486956443This is the final nail for Harris. If she can't pet her people to turnout for easy voting, how will they turnout on election day?
Based on the early voting and my gut, this is what I expect. WI is honestly an unknown to me and I expect MI to be rigged enough for Harris to win.There's a fair chance he exceeds this but that's more on Hopium than hard numbers
>>486956042how does the "live free or die" state vote for democrats?
>>486956838They already adjudicated this the day it came out and Fulton was forced to allow poll watchers in.
>>486956855>None of this accounts for cheating, but even with the cheated margins from 2020 Trump is looking good at this point. I fully expect some shenanigans tomorrow which will fuck up any sort of analysis or predictions. I also think Trump is set up to beat the 2020 margins + 2020 rigging which gives him the winWhat part of this is hard to follow? They'd have to cheat more, without covid cover, for Harris to win. Is it worth it for her? I doubt it.Also what's your alternative? Sick back with our thumbs up are asses and do nothing? Not even think?
>GA, MI, WI all still fortifiedYeah about what I expected. PA was a pleasant surprise to me I expected them to be still fortified as well.
>>486956042An actual REAL thread.
>>486956443According to NBC’s final poll, there’s an enthusiasm gap of men being less enthusiastic to vote than women compared to 2020 (still down for women but moreso for men) but it also had Trump winning, I wonder if we could see male Democrat turnout fall and that’s the primary driver
When the election is stolen again will you admit that you were wrong about everything?Or will you double down and do ITS TOO BIG TO RIGHT again and again?
>>486957894>I wonder if we could see male Democrat turnout fall and that’s the primary driverI think that is it. Black men aren't voting for Kamala and they are usually a large chunk of the Dem base. I can also see a lot of white men who are democrats and want the Trump economy back. They might not vote for Trump, but they'll sit this one out. For those white guys, I think it's the under 30 crowd and the retired boomers who were union dems.
>>486956042Do you think the election will be called either way by sometime Wednesday?
>>486957894>there’s an enthusiasm gapYeah no shit. Why would anyone who thought 2020 was rigged vote in 2024? Nothing was done to fix the actual issues at all.
>>486958258Sitting it out is a safe bet for D males who still have half a testicle. It allows them to complain if she fucks everything up.
>>486956042The cope I'm reading is Democrats will turn out on election day and Republicans are turning out early but actually voting for Harris.
>>486958608I know you're trolling but that's not the case. A ton has been spent on legal battles in the recent months, and many of them have been quite successful in clearing old voter registration rolls and forcing poll watchers to be allowed in. Plus without the cover of covid everything becomes much more difficult to execute.
>>486956990It’s full of 60+ year old morons who grew up in a white country and live in an idyllic setting that’s still 90%+ white that has been insulated from most of the problems that liberal policies have caused in the rest of the country.
These last 2 election cycles have led me to believe that universal suffrage was/is a terrible idea.
>>486958443I personally doubt the results will drag out for so long. There's less mail vote for starters and no COVID as an excuse. We should know the winner Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
>>486958802Well they haven't done enough in the past 3 years for my taste. I just see scrambling a month before like it's really just election circus bullshittery. Not like it matters anyway, I'm not in a swing state so my vote is inconsequential.
>>486958443It depends on how the electoral count looks. If PA gets called, then the entire race can be called in a timely manner because enough states can be called to give Trump 270 (assuming he gets either Georgia or AZ called for him as well). If PA doesn't get called because rigging is in progress, it'll take days.Another possibility is that VA comes in red and gets called promptly. It's an outside chance but if polls were just way fucking off, it could happen. In that case, it's likely everything else will be called quickly as well because it would be impossible to rig.Personally I think PA and AZ (and the other fortified states) will delay and drag things out with rigging for several days and I suspect SCOTUS and possibly even the Biden admin will get involved muddying the water like crazy. Kinda like how 2000 went with Florida and the SCOTUS stepping in to tell them to stop endlessly recounting.
>>486958802I'll ask you the same question as I asked OP.When the election is stolen again will you admit that you were wrong about everything?Or will you double down and do ITS TOO BIG TO RIG again and again?I know there are still some holdouts, but the majority of people saying "go out and vote!!!" are literal paid shills.>voter registration rollsPlease explain for the thread how voter registration matters to people making FRAUDULENT votes.
>>486958443If Trump wins all swing states, then yes. He'd need WI and MI for that to happen. 50/50 chance it's called Wednesday regardless.>>486958608Georgia passed SB189 which makes them count mail in ballots first. Similar to Florida after 2000 which has been increasingly red since then. What a coincidence. Also your statement would imply Republicans aren't voting as much because they know it's rigged. When in reality Democrat turnout is down, not Republican.>>486958753This cope is complete bullshit>>486959018The 19th amendment killed our country. I hate Woodrow Wilson more than anyone
AZ is Trump for sureGA is very likely TrumpMI probably HarrisNC probably Trump but not certainNH is going to go DNJ isnt in playPA is hard to tell but if his numbers are better than 2020 thats a good signVA isnt in playWI is probably Harris
>>486958443Maybe, but the swing states have already said they're going to ballot harvest for the next 14 days until they have enough for Kamala to win.You just know there's going to be contested states as well.
>>486958608I wasn't going to vote but did in the end for two reasons:1. Trump was polling close to winning the national vote, so I wanted to contribute to that if possible (my state is deep blue so it doesn't matter)2. Local issues and elections. I voted against three incumbents on my state supreme court and against several taxes in my locality. Also against a public utilities commissioner with literal DEI shit on her website.
>>486959533Because when rolls are cleared mail in ballots aren't sent out which prevents ballot harvesting. They will obviously try to steal it, but without the cover of covid and with the increased scrutiny from 2020 it will be harder. I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.
>>486959311Anon it sounds like you've been consuming a lot of propaganda and not much else. Re-evaluate where you're getting your info from.
>>486958218>>486959533Depends on how things play out. Why would I have to admit I'm wrong? I did a similar exercise in 2020 with early voting, net change in party registration, approval ratings, historical incumbent advantage, etc. All signs pointed to Trump getting a shitload more votes than 2016. He did, and he "lost".I wouldn't say that analysis is wrong, but you can't predict how much cheating. Do you think 2020 was an honest election? What's your point anyhow? Ok say I'm wrong, so what?
>>486960030He doesn't have a point
>>486959018its a terrible idea. originally suffrage was afforded to landowners because they actually have a stake in how things are run
>>486959533In my personal opinion, I think that the fraud is going to be significantly harder to pull off this time around. You might recall that last time states like PA were won by ballots that were later found by courts to have been cast illegally, but there was no mechanism to rescind a fraudulently cast vote. We've had a number of cases like this around the country now and these vectors of fraud have been getting closed. Dead people are being taken off the rolls, along with illegal aliens and others. I fully expect Maricopa and Broward counties to still try and pull some last minute bullshit but it's just not going to be enough. Plus remember we don't have COVID19 anymore. They really put all their eggs in one basket last time. They did not expect that they were going to have to run against Donald Trump again. They thought he would be in prison already. The assassination attempt was literally their last shot.
>>486956042Trump will win by much more than people think he will
>>486956042early voting is always deep blue even in red states. this results spells certain doom and absolute massive tranny suicide numbers
>>486956042
>>486960398I'm pretty sure whichever way the election goes it'll go way harder than anyone thinks. Like electoral and national vote landslides. Polls have been fucking worthless this cycle.Alternatively I'm wrong and there's 7 different knife edge contests scattered "randomly" around the country where the electorate tends moderately conservative but democrats control the state government.
>>486956042casino state being the decider would be interesting
>>486956042nice threads, anon, doing what I can to ensure more people see ithttps://www.polnewscentral.com/early-voting-and-states-flipping-red-day-5you're doing God's work
what does it mean when a number is in ()
>>486960030>I'm not sure what point you're trying to make.I am asking you a question.When the election is stolen again will you admit that you were wrong about everything?Or will you double down and do ITS TOO BIG TO RIG again and again?Please answer it.>>486960114>Ok say I'm wrong, so what?Because it's about realizing you can't vote your way out of this situation.Talking about voting stats is stupid as fuck and a huge waste of time unless you're a paid shill, because then you are literally paid to do it.Which is why neither of you can't answer the question honestly.>>486960393>In my personal opinion, I think that the fraud is going to be significantly harder to pull off this time around.Please explain why. None of the things you mention matter to people doing FRAUDULENT votes. They matter to people doing legitimate votes.And I'll ask you the same question posed to them. When this election is stolen, are you going to realize you were completely wrong and were brainwashed by republican shills grifting? Or will you double down next election too?
>>486956957Democrats prefer voting at 3am
>>486960892Well that's fucking cool. Thanks anon
>>486956042Finally someone put all the data together.
>>486956042Following thread. Here’s a bump and my favorite graph from 2020. I think Dominion can handle the fraud internally this time so extra ballots may not even be necessary?
>>486956443If 2020 isn't motivating republicans to vote, then they aren't real republicans. Become force multipliers, get EVERYONE you know to vote. NO EXCUSES. Do it for Trump, DO IT FOR AMERICA. We need a massive, historic, overwhelming cheat proof landslide nationwide. >See them driven before you>Hear the lamentations of their trannies
>>486960898It means Trump/Republicans are ahead in that state. For 2024, he is ahead off early voting in AZ, GA, and NV. in the "cut in 2020 margin" column, the negatives/red highlight are good and it means he flipped the state. Flipping the state assuming election day turnout is similar to 2020, or if Republicans outperform Democrats by a similar margin.Does that make sense?
>>486961305
>>486956443My interpretation of the data is as such.Early voting is heavily influenced by how convenient it is to do. So this swifts I favor of urban areas, people out of work, and the old. I have a friend I had to beat with a stick to make go vote in Virginia because it fucked his daily commute up to do, but it wouldn’t have been able to vote if I didn’t.So I’m actually expecting decent Republican turnout numbers for Election Day since a lot of people it’s when they will have off from jobs or whatever routine to do
have enjoyed your posts over the last week or so, OP.
>>486961101>Because it's about realizing you can't vote your way out of this situation.Yeah. Trump winning or losing doesn't change that. What's the correct course of action oh wise one? You know you can prepare for all sorts of bad situations AND be aware or investing in current events.>Talking about voting stats is stupid as fuck and a huge waste of time unless you're a paid shill, because then you are literally paid to do it.It takes me literally less than 5 minutes to update. I started this at work last week, not exactly a time sink. We're both posting a 4chan in the middle of an afternoon on a Monday. Don't act like your time is so fucking valuable.>Which is why neither of you can't answer the question honestly.I did answer it
>>486961101That doesn't make any sense, how would I double down if the election gets stolen? I'm not even claiming it's too big to rig, just that the circumstances would make it harder than 2020.
>>486956042Huh? Explain it to me like im retarded please, because when it comes to this I am. By your estimation based on your data, is Trump winning or are they rigging it again?
>>486958218When it's not stolen will you still be a massive faggot and claim it's impossible to resist a conspiracy because everyone is powerless? My money's on yes.
>>486956443>Georgia 102% turnoutclown world
CALIFORNIA FLIPPENING
>>486956443So GA is lost?
>>486961101>Please explain why. None of the things you mention matter to people doing FRAUDULENT votes. They matter to people doing legitimate votes.In what way is an illegally cast ballot part of the legitimate votes? I don't understand what part of my statement you took an issue with since you apparently didn't read it.
>>486956838All those ballots are spoiled under law.INB4 faggot "count every vote"if you don't want your vote disqualified then follow the law. Not following the law is cheating and all those ballots are spoiled under law. They MUST NOT be allowed to count.that is how you stop election fraud, otherwise they will just keep doing it. Let those democrat election officials explain to their voters why their ballots were spoiled because they weren't following the law, that is much better than traitor and cuck republicans, like faggot Rafensberger, telling their voters that their votes were cancelled out by democrat cheaters.
Quality thread OP, looking forward to more.>>486956981This map aligns with my gut instinct. I wouldn't be surprised if it's exactly this.
>>486962189That's turnout compared to 2020, not of total registered voters. Fulton county cheated and flipped GA in 2020, but there's nothing to say the EV numbers currently are fraudulent. Or they are at least within normal fraudulent amounts>>486962476No I wouldn't say so. The big thing with GA (and the other states in gray highlights) is that they don't have voter registration by party with early voting data. This is "modeled party" and an assumption done by the place I'm grabbing data. They could be right, they could be way off. What it does say now is that Trump is in a hole vs 2020 in Georgia. Giving the lack of democrat enthusiasm we can prove in other areas, he can still pick it up tomorrow.Even without GA he wins with PA, AZ, and NV. Lastly, >>486959564 and SB189 should help.
>>486961101don't care still voted trump while I prepare for the US to collapse
>>486962189102% of 2020, not the registered voters.>>486962116Harris underperforming during the period she strongest. Very good news for Trump.
>>486962116>tldr Democrat turnout is lower this year than last by a wider margin than GOP turnout>This means a substantial amount of Democrats will need to come out and vote Tuesday.>Democrats don't typically do well when early voting is poor because their voters are low IQ mud people who can't fill out a simple ballot because that requires a 90+ IQ
>>486962116>rep voter reg up in some areas significantly >dem voter reg has taken beatings >Republicans extremely competitive if not outright winning in early vote >this is usually a runaway period for dems>dems winning more meaningfully in mail in votes >but laws are significantly more strict on this for 2024 >democrats have a noticeable enthusiasm gap especially for Election Day they typical fumble on anyway >Republicans will most likely have a strong turnout although at least some of day turn out was eaten by early voting >dems will most likely cheat >but they have a much higher potentially impossible to actual cover bar to do that now
Thanks once again anon, I’ve seen most of your other threads. As you point out, one big hole in this analysis is voter registration deltas from 2020. NH had something like a 50K red swing such that there are now over 40K more republicans than democrats in the state, and the # of independents has decreased as well. There’s only ~1M voters in the state, I still think Harris pulls it out but it’s gonna be by 10K or less votes.
>>486963032>>486963075>>486963082I see. Guess I should skip dinner and bet a little extra on him winning then :^) Thanks frens
>>486963316It all depends on how indies split. OP has them going 54-41 in favor of D's, but if that changes significantly, ie greater than a 5 point shift, that's the election. we will see tomorrow
>>486956042>>486956443I said this in one of the previous threads, but I think Trump's greatest advantage going into the election regarding fraud is not his lead being 'too big to rig', but there being enough scrutiny on the election to deter them from rigging. If any 200% turnout bullshit happens this time (which they may very well need to close the gap on Trump) it's gonna destroy what little good will the system has left. Who really wants to stick their neck out for an unlikeable bitch they was a joke within her party until three months ago? I can see them just giving it to Trump, trying to keep a grip on Congress, and then subvert and cockblock him throughout his second term like they did last time. If they do that, he'll be out of the picture in 2028 and they can put up fresh candidates.Still, they're vey fanatically anti-Trump and they might just go for broke here. I really can't say what their plan is but I'm hoping for the best.Anyways see you all soon. Shilling is gonna be off-the-wall tomorrow.
>>486963787Keep in mind anon is specifically said they may still very well cheat and I half believe they are stupid enough to try and push past critical mass of believable which most people seem to think is 5%I don’t know if a betting market would just tell you tough luck goy if Harris “wins” and then they refuse to certify blatant fraud
>>486963316It would be so satisfying if she lost NH. More importantly that cunt Joyce Craig has to lose the Governor race. Are most independents democrat leaning? I’ve been independent since I could first vote in 2004 and have never given a single vote to any Democrat.
>>486961101>>486961101lmao i think it's hilarious you are calling people a paid shill. If anything the person dooming and telling people there is no point voting is the clear shill. Fuck you vote trump people
>>486961101Demoralization shill. Dont listen to this guy
>>486962116Other anons already answered>is Trump winning or are they rigging it again?Yes and yes lol. I expect him to win and I don't think they'll be able to handle more rigging without getting caught, noticed, stopped, whatever.What the data says right now is Trump is outperfoming 2020. 2020 numbers already have the cheating baked in. If election day turnout is normal for republicans, and it should be, Trump wins by winning Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. I think he gets Georgia too but I have nothing to prove that.This doesn't account for change in voter registration, which favors republicans. I'm also giving a quite favorable independent split to Harris, which isn't likely in reality. Basically this is a worse case off of known data, and he is winning.
>>486963316>one big hole in this analysis is voter registration deltas from 2020Agreed. Now that we're this close I wish I added it in but I was lazy last week. It seems like shoddy work at this point but oh well.
>>486964358>Are most independents democrat leaning?Depends on the state I think. In my state I'm pretty sure most independents are republicans that just don't bother registering because there's no need to. You can vote in any primary as an independent.
>>486964102Big factor will probably be the dramatic realignment of the Republican Party over the last four years. More and more neocons and rinos have been kicked out and far more active and vocal MAGA republicans are in going to do more beyond talk about how big of a win it was in every other position and then say we have to trust the system and can’t investigate it
DONALD TRUMP HAS WON. HaHa. Trannies what are you going to do now? You’ll have to staple your cocks back on.
>>486956981>and I expect MI to be rigged enough for Harris to win.I wouldn’t underestimate the Muslim areas like Dearborn. A lot of them are rightly pissed at how Biden/Harris are handling the Gaza situation and them either not voting or casting protest votes for Not Harris might be enough to gum up the Wayne County machinery. Only way to know for sure is to find out tomorrow but it’ll be something to keep an eye on for sure
>Doesn’t factor in voter registration changesSo it's meaningless then
>>486964270Well its called gambling for a reason, no risk no reward.>I don’t know if a betting market would just tell you tough luck goy if Harris “wins” and then they refuse to certify blatant fraud But its cool, markets such as betfair allow you to 'cashout' at any time, since youre essentially buying and selling shares with other people. Aiming for 95%odds of him winning to cashout then im going to place a small bet on Kamala for an upset win just in case :^) Thats what I should have done in 2020 lol>>486964791>Yes and yes lol. Nice. Good work B, if youre right then you provided an already wealthy man with a hot meal :)
>>486965661In OP’s defense that data most likely either isn’t terribly relevant or favors trump in an insignificant way.There really isn’t anything in any of the data from anywhere (outside of the schizo Iowa poll) to suggest republicans have lost a meaningful amount of voters, dems have gained a meaningful amount or that independents changed their party.Right out of my ass prediction of shift?Sub 1 point shift of never trumpers that consider the Cheney endorsement huge 1-2 point shift in dems to republican or independent >probably a sub 1 point shift in independents to trump
>>486960687>Polls have been fucking worthless this cycle.You're right that it'll probably be a landslide one way or the other, but not because the polls are off, but instead because the swing states are correlated. This is especially true with the northern states, if something makes PA swing one way, most likely it'll also affect MI and WI. So even if it's close, it is very possible that the three states all swing the same way. The sunbelt states are less correlated, but even so the second most likely scenario (after one candidate sweeping all swing states), is for the candidates to split along North/Sunbelt lines.
>>486957159>have to cheat moreYea, they wouldn't do that. They want ww3, men to cut off their dicks, women to cut off their boobs, but cheating more is out of the question.WHAT A RELIEF.
Trump wins tomorrow because cameltoe has zero voter enthusiasm
>>486959311A lot of states have passed a lot of laws to protect against kikery. Georgia for example:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Election_Integrity_Act_of_2021
>>486965661It's not meaningless without it. I even acknowledge that I'm lacking it and it' relevant to include. The issue is that it's hard to track and the states don't have it readily accessible.Why it's not meaningless is that voter registration changes favors republicans. I'd also argue that my 54-41 independent split is generous to democrats. Even without the favorable voter registration changes, and with an unfavorable independent split, Trump looks pretty good. It's a "worse case" and he's still fine.
>>486962867Can anyone explain why not a single appointed judge by Trump didn’t take the video as evidence?
>>486967075Why do you think they'd cheat more? For Harris specifically. GA tightened up voting laws. There's more scrutiny now than 4 years ago everywhere. Half the population thinks 2020 was rigged, so why would they make it worse now?Doesn't it make more sense to "let" Trump win, then come back with someone in 2028 who is actually liked? Harris couldn't even clear 1% in her own party's primaries. They don't like her. Why would they help her so much that it completely destroys any semblance of normal elections?
>>486967518Judges are elected officials, presiding over the election fraud lawsuits in their own district. You do the math.
>>4869675181. Trump appointed federal judges, not state judges.2. These are state matters.3. Cases were thrown out for lack of standing and procedural BS. They never let the cases get to the point of showing evidence.4. Judges usually serve for decades. There's a good chance they have benefitted from the racket at some point.
>>486967075Trump is a lot more palatable to TPTB now than in 2020 and they want a war with Iran. Trump won't do anything meaningful on immigration aside from some token deportations of anti-zionist activists and photo ops at the border, meanwhile opening the gates for pajeets Canada-style. Watch the Ben Shapiro and Sam Harris interview, it literally doesn't matter who gets in. Why cheat if you don't have to, it undermines the legitimacy of the political system even if you get away with it. Someone high up will call the board of elections in Philadelphia, Detroit, etc and tell them to have their count in by 10pm and they'll do it, screenshot this.
>>486967761The people at the top have nothing to do lose by having their minions risk jail by cheating for them.I think the minions might be a little more nervous this time. But they will try to cheat as much as they can because it pays to cheat and always has.
>>486967993This is more logical.Trump wins because they want Trump and it restores the regime to legitimacy with the only group of people who care about anything but jerking off and eating goyslop.
>>486964102I am confident they will go for broke because their original plan was to front run Kamala once Biden got a second term and since they failed to jail and kill Trump. If they lose there will be no mercy for them and they want to avoid that at all costs
>>486967828Niggerhttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_federal_judges_appointed_by_Donald_Trump
>>486968173many states vote for judges
>>486968173Eastern Europeans are always so confused about our system. You guys don’t seem to know the difference between county, state, and federal courts lol.
>>486967916Oh, so no Federal election laws were broken. Thanks!
>>486968575There are no federal election laws.
>>486968518I guess Trump had shit for brains lawyers then by missing out on legalising evidence in federal court.
>>486956042Bump for good work, anon.Indians are using magic to help trump.
>>486968018>The people at the top have nothing to do loseYes, they do. What happens when instead of ~55% of the country thinking elections are fake and gay it's 70%? What happens when the only net contributors, white men, stop caring and working?
>>486968575Yes. Lots of state laws were broken though.
>>486967075do you not understand the exponentially increasing cost and logistical challenge that poses? of course not, you're only here to terminate thoughtful discussion
>>486968814This comment makes zero sense.
>>486968607VRA isn’t federal?
>>486956042I’ve appreciated your threads.Thank you and may Saint Probie bless you!
>>486969344>speaks in acronyms lol we got a real thinker over here
>>486968814they subpoenaed his lawyers, charged them with crimes, threw a few of them in jail.the sacred principle of fair representation doesn't apply to trump. 600 years of jurisprudence down the toilet.
>>486960898It means the number is jewish
>>486968126It's less that they want Trump to win than that they don't want half the country believing the political system is totally rigged (which it is even if ballot stuffing doesn't happen). Certainly there's a faction that wants Trump, but there's also a faction that wants Harris. The key point is that both go to the same parties and get 99% of what they want either way, maybe you don't get an appointment in the next administration but there's still mass immigration and unlimited support for Israel. So let the chips fall where they may. Your typical CNN/MSNBC enjoyer may be apoplectic at the idea of Trump but the people who actually matter don't care as much this time around. If Trump wins I'd actually expect to see messaging to soften Trump to those people once they're no longer in the mode of whipping votes.
>>486956042I run a degenerate nsfw Instagram page of about a quarter million followers. 2020 I did a poll and Trump lost 47/53. Though it was obvious many non-Americans voted and many for Biden (not unlike our actual elections). This time I gave a third “results non American” option. Trump won 47/26 Kamala/26 results. Very unscientific but very interesting.
>>486956838This was overruled immediately by court order and watchers were allowed
>>486968909The people at the top aren't Obama and Biden.>>486969054>its not thoughtful if I don't agreeThey sent in about 25 million fake votes last time bruv.
>>486970850>The people at the top aren't Obama and Biden.I didn't say they are...>about 25 million fake votesSource?
>>486956042You're going to be very disappointed lol. There are a few things you aren't considering:>More Republicans support Harris than Democrats support Trump>More Democrats support Harris than Republicans support Trump (this is different than above because not all Republicans that don't support Trump are supporting Harris)>More Republicans are voting early/by mail this time around because Trump hasn't spent months telling them their vote won't be counted like he did in 2020; same day turnout for Republicans won't be as high in 2020>Polls show as many as 1/8 women are planning on voting differently than their husbands, and these women are more likely to be Republicans.My guess? Harris wins 276-262 by winning NV, WI, MI, and PA. (All by less than 1% other than Michigan, which she wins by between 1 and 2 %)>>486958218PA has a lot more registered Democrats than Republicans.
>>486956042Looks like these states could use some more migrant voters.
>>486957037I will never understand why election officials will never see jail time for breaking the law like this. When they're caught, they need to be sued then it's, "teehee! I got caught! Guess I'll follow law then," and they keep their position of power to do more unlawful stuff. If I steal, speed, etc. I don't get to go teehee and get off scott free.
>>486971263Not to mention non-citizens infest the swing states and will all be voting harris.
>>486971212>needing a source81 million votes anon.
>>486971375We definitely need some reform so that allowing situations where shit like that is possible is automatically sedition and the person is ineligible to work or volunteer or contract for any level of government in any capacity (at best, ideally execution is on the table for egregious cases)
>>486971614The conspiratard garbage is such a massive cope. Trump's approval rating throughout his first term hovered at or below 45% for nearly the entire term, and he lost the popular vote the first time around. Not only that, but a ton of boomers died during the pandemic. Trump obviously lost in 2020 because despite MAGAtards viewing him as a God most people didn't like him. Just because you are in a cult doesn't mean the average person is.
>>486956443Me and my friend betted 10$ on Trump winning WI. Did i make mistake. I expected victory like it was in 2016 from Trump. Him taking 300 electors
>>486971263>More Republicans support Harris than Democrats support TrumpSpeculation>More Republicans are voting early/by mail this time around because Trump hasn't spent months telling them their vote won't be counted like he did in 2020; same day turnout for Republicans won't be as high in 2020False, they have less early voting in every state. See my 2nd photo.>Polls show as many as 1/8 women are planning on voting differently than their husbands, and these women are more likely to be Republicans.This only matters if these same women didn't vote differently than their husbands before.>pollsPolls also say Trump is winning. So none of what you said matters. Or polls aren't accurate, then we're back to the start.
>>486972029>Just because you are in a cult doesn't mean the average person is.See picrel.
>>486970850>>its not thoughtful if I don't agreeanother discussion-terminating fallacy from you.at issue is the exponentially increasing scope of the challenge faced by riggers. no, it's not productive when you reply "they're totally willing to cheat more." because the issue is ability, not will.your suggestion that it comes down to "how many votes 'they' sent in" betrays either a childish understanding of the topic, or (I think this is more likely) intent to terminate the discussion.in fact, scrutiny matters. scrutiny is a lever that causes the aggregate costs of all those things we call "rigging" to balloon beyond all hope of a practical return. in fact that's the default state, most of the time, in most jurisdictions outside of africa. philadelphia and detroit not so much.the way I see it, you are getting in the way of that scrutiny, by falsely claiming that there are no levers to resist rigging. there are many, mathematically certain levers such as those contained in many recent state law changes, increased vigilance, and (unironically) voting harder. these actions in combination neutralize some of the effect of rigging, which is also many actions in combination and must be combatted as such.
>>486956377bump
>>486971771>16% of votes are fakeI've been very clear that 2020 was rigged. But how are you even getting to this? Why would they even bother? You need tens or hundreds of thousands of votes in a few swing states. You don't need 1M fake votes in total, let alone 25M.You're getting further and further away from what you originally posted. There's a reason for that.
>>486972120i think you have a good chance of winning that bet
>>486972438What you are saying is obvious. You don't need to go on and on faggot. Everyone stops reading.Your logic fails because they don't care.Their minions will have second thoughts, Trump will win, but that doesn't mean they aren't trying to cheat enough to win.
>>486956443with nv, az and pa, he needs either nc or ga to win
>>486971263>Republicans support Harrisactors and liz cheney don't count
>>48697250781 million votes.15 million more than Obama who was a world wide sensation.They have 10 million fake votes every election.10+15=25 dumdum
>>486972029Just like how the dems spent 4 years screaming the same type of conspiracy theories about russia stealing the 2016 election for trump? It's perfectly reasonable to believe that the dems are retaliating over it with their own flavor of fraud. The established ruling class of democrats are playing a very dangerous game, though.Those who make peacful revolution impossible, makes violent revolution inevitable.
>>486972186You're right about the mail-ins for most states, I stand corrected. I don't necessarily think that means that lots of Republicans will show up on election day or that Democrat same day turnout will be as low as 2020 though.Also I don't think a lot of women voting differently than their husbands would have done so prior to Roe V Wade being overturned.>Polls show Trump winningBarely, and Democrats have over performed nearly all of the polls since Roe v Wade was overturned. I'm still placing my bets on Kamala (narrowly) winning. Unless she has a stellar presidency though, she likely loses in 2028 since I'm anticipating her barely winning this one.
>>486972233I find libtards to be insufferable too anon. I identify as a libertarian and I voted for Trump in 2020, and for more Republicans than Democrats this election (I did vote for Kamala for president). You are just projecting here. You are in a cult.
>>486959564>The 19th amendment killed our country.nailed it
>>486972642>Your logic fails because they don't care.What anon is trying to get through your thick skull is that at some point rigging it harder becomes a challenge like “I will jump from the ground onto a third floor balcony without external assistance.” It doesn’t matter how hard I may want it if external factors like the laws of physics make it impossible
>>486972590It has 2.25 multiplier
Worst case scenario, according to anon's data. He still wins, but the leftist coping will be hard lmao.
>>486972507>You don't need 1M fake votes in total, let alone 25M.But you do if you want to make a point to everyone that you are he ruler and no one will win without your permission again.
>>486956042good thread bump
>>486971806Or just arrest them and throw them in jail. Too bad our court system has been subverted and broken by selective enforcement. You'd have to be a blithering fool to trust in it at this point.
>>486972792Dems dropped the Russiagate crap sometime in 2019 and don't talk about it much anymore. Republicans still don't accept the results of the 2020 election. Also, Dem claims were related to Russian bad actors manipulating people via ad placements, not that ballot dumps or voting machine hacks results in millions of fraudulent votes. They aren't the same, though I do agree that the Russiagate stuff was stupid.
>>486973142>Worst case scenario, according to anon's data. He still wins, but the leftist coping will be hard lmao.I can't even see that. Democrat early voting turnout in Fulton County, GA was abysmal.
>>486972029There was no pandemic, anon. In fact your entire post is just a regurgitation of gaslit media talking points.
>>486973422Where do you see that? According to anon's table >>486956443 they are up 2% over their 2020 numbers and repubs are down 6%.
>>486972652I'm also giving him NC. He won in 2016 and 2020 and is leading by more now than in 2020. Plus with the terrible FEMA response that isn't helping Harris.
>>486972808Dems are underperforming everywhere now when they need it most. They always build a bank in early voting and that bank is at historic lows while Republicans are at highs. If all they have is roe v wade there done. Especially considering no law was passed federally to counter by Biden or Harris.Every trend is in favor of Trump, who is on the ballot. Even in 2022 the Republicans did perform well enough to get the popular vote just not enough for a red wave. If were looking at actual factual numbers dems are just down and by alot while Rep are up. Don’t forget as well, Trump has always outperformed his polling. If hes leading now I have no reason to believe he wont lead later.
>>486973531I know a few people who died of covid. You are projecting when you accuse me of regurgitating media talking points. You yourself have fallen for alternative media (Infowars, 4chan, etc) talking points.
>>486973104You keep repeating the same thing. You are stating something very obvious.
>>486968153They very well could, they seem nervous that Trump will actually take an axe to Feds and they seem more hysterical than ever, so they may just push Harris though even if just wringing their hands of Trump with a second term would be the better long-term play. But Biden's thrown a lot of wrenches in their plans after the debate and immediately endorsing Harris. It seems like behind the scenes there's a lot of infighting and doubt surrounding Kamala, and that may be enough to give Trump the edge. If one of the Rust Belt states is called for Trump by midnight, I'd say Trump's clear for takeoff, but I can definitely see them counting them until the weekend and clamping down hard on any protest.We'll see, but I wish you all the best cause tomorrow's just the beginning of this shitshow. Godspeed.
>>486973272No shit the method of theft isn't the same, I literally said it.Democrats feel 2016 was stolen and are retaliating in their own way. They justify their actions of fraud with the age old excuse of the other side did it first.Democrats are the party of emotions and feelings based decisions. Facts and logic doesn't factor in when they choose to do something. They and their actions are very easy to understand when you come to this realization.
>>486973774Covid is the flu which kills people every year. There was no mass boomer die off.
>>486956042bump
>>486972954Why would a Libertarian vote for Harris? I simply do not believe you unless you are oblivious to reality. An actual Libertarian would sooner sit out than vote for a warhawk like Harris. Especially considering shes gladly accepted the endorsements of the Cheney family while Trump has Musk working with Ron Paul. You are either lying or dont understand the situation or political landscape shifting under your feet.
>>486973769And another thing, any gains Harris makes with the small "never trumper" Cheney faction or in terms of boosting lib white woman turnout will be counteracted by the gains Trump has made with latinos
>>486973769Pollsters have adjusted their methods. Trump got between 46 and 47% of the popular vote in 2016 and 2020. Pollsters both years had him getting between 43 and 44%. Currently they have him between 47 and 48%, more than what he got both previous elections. Theres been a lot of analysis done to suggest that pollsters have been doing a lot of data manipulation to herd their polls around a Trump-Kamala tie so that they're reputations are not further shot. If they are just as wrong now than they were in 2016/2020, Trump is getting over >50% of the vote, which seems highly unlikely since his approval rating was (and is currently) net negative. More likely than not Democrat same day turnout is being underestimated like it was in 2022, and independents will break more for Kamala than Trump. Additionally, polls have shown Dems favor Kamala more than Repubs favor Trump. Regardless of who wins, it's going to be a very narrow victory and the deciding state (almost certainly Pennsylvania) will be won with a lead of <10,000 votes.
>>486972642>Your logic fails because they don't care.you don't understand, the issue is ability, not will (as implied by "they don't care"). you did not contend with any of my reasons why the issue is ability, not will, which are still available here (>>486972438) should you decide to attempt rebutting them for the first time.>What you are saying is obvious. You don't need to go on and on faggot. Everyone stops reading.you got btfo by the very post you're replying to, so it's evident you were just projecting here.
>>486956042Good post. We need more people gathering and posting data.However, you need to compare 2024 to more than just 2020. Voting in 2020 was heavily influenced by Corona. It likely caused far more Democrats to vote via mail and early than it did for Republicans.
>>486972761>They have 10 million fake votes every election.Which you are pulling out of your ass
>>486956042Bump
>>486974614>>486974502You guys seem new here. It's okay.
>>486973780>You are stating something very obvious.Because you are either unwilling or (more likely) unable to understand it. I’m going to ask a pointed question that I want a simple yes or no answer to>is it possible for somebody with significant power to want something and be unable to make it a reality no matter what they do?
>>486973594>Where do you see that?Their table is full of shit guessing. I saw it in person. Georgia doesn't have registered political affiliation, you have to look at turnout in Macon and Atlanta to effectively determine election results.
>>486972808>Also I don't think a lot of women voting differently than their husbands would have done so prior to Roe V Wade being overturned.>I don't thinkSo you don't know, which was my point. If there was something showing they were 95% aligned with husbands instead of 87.5% that would matter. But there isn't>Barely, and Democrats have over performed nearly all of the polls since Roe v Wade was overturnedOh wow all 1 election that didn't have Trump in it. Meanwhile he's vastly overperformed the two times he ran.We can disagree and be cordial about, but I feel like you have a lot left to speculation. More than me at least. I can be wrong and we'll see tomorrow I guess.
>>486965585A huge portion are voting for Jill Stein apparently
>>486973950>Democrats are the party of emotions and feelings based decisions.You are clearly projecting here. You are upset that Trump lost in 2020, which is why you are accusing Dems of stealing 2020 despite the fact that there is no evidence.>>486973998There were far more deaths than would be expected in 2020-2022, and the US's life expectancy fell. You are wrong.>>486974352Trump is anti-immigration and pro-tariff (tariffs don't need congressional approval to be implemented). Kamala has some bad economic policies, but she needs congressional approval for them. Also, tariffs are much worse than anything Kamala would do, and immigration is a net positive for the economy and reducing it would also be worse than anything Kamala would do. I can't post links, but the Cato institute has a lot of reading on why immigration is good for the economy.
>>486974757Yes.>no matter whatThis is your problem. You are bluepilled.
>>486972954>libertarian (I did vote for Kamala)she wants national price controls.she wants a federal law to preempt state abortion laws.she wants gun registries and restrictions.she won't expand oil leases.we'll have boots on the ground in ukraine and possible iran within weeks.I could go on. are you out of your fucking mind? what sort of propaganda have you been consuming if you don't know any of this?
>>486973594What >>486974887 said. Take anything with "modeled" party with a grain of salt.
>>486959533>Please explain for the thread how voter registration matters to people making FRAUDULENT votesBecause that's where the ballots come from. You can't have more ballots than registered voters, so you register a bunch of voters, and then when they don't show up to vote, you fill out a vote in their name. This is also why shills push the "don't bother voting" narrative. A vote uncast is one that can be fraudulently filled out at the end of the night.
>>486974465>Pollsters have adjusted their methodsThey said that in 2020 too and were very wrong again. There's nothing to show they got it right.>but muh 2022 red waveNot a presidential campaign and Trump wasn't running. Not the same.
>>486974747>gets btfo>immediately projects the things he is most insecure about in this momentremember, scrutiny of the election matters.scrutiny is one of many levers that causes the aggregate costs of all those things we call "rigging" to balloon beyond all hope of a practical return. voting is another one.
>>486974936There has been more than 1 election, there have been many special elections, including 1 in Alabama where the Dem won by >20 points and the main focus of her campaign was abortion and IVF (Marilyn Lands is her name). You're right that I am speculating about wives, but abortion has consistently shown to be such a losing issue for Republicans and that women are heavily against the Republican stance, so I think speculation is justified here.
>>486974747Keep deflecting anon. If you never consider other viewpoint you'll never have to admit you are wrong. It's a great plan for life
>>486975073And yet, she will need congressional approval for most of that. Trump won't need that for tariffs. Trump is also against immigration, which is extremely good for the economy.
>>486974887>>486975156"I saw it in person" is way more retarded than any modeled data. That said, it doesn't matter because if your data is accurate, and I haven't verified it, but if it is, he easily wins 269 and gets the presidency.
>>486974977Isn't that election interference?
>>486975378>>486975348Entirely new.There is nothing to indicate in anything I've said that I didn't consider your viewpoint.And meanwhile you just literally keep repeating yourself like a broken record as if that is a response to me.
>>486956042This analysis dogshit and has little to zero predictive value. You're making the assumption that voter behavior by party affiliation (importantly voting method) is the same or the similar as 2020 - the covid year. Meanwhile Republicans have been pushing EV much more and many dems are returning to election day voting. There will likely be fewer election day voters and more dem election day voters this year. By how much? No one knows.>I split 54-41 to democrats based on national exit polls.Also fucking stupid. Why even hold elections if people are going to do the same thing as last time. >I’m using data from here: https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/This data is shoddy as well. For example Wisconsin does not provide info on party affiliation. TargetSmart is "modeling" it. L2 (another site that does this) has the opposite republican/dem split in WI early vote returns.
>>486975520Sorry I didn't mean the "saw it in person" meant anything. More of the "the modeled data is full of shit".>doesn't matter because if your data is accurate, and I haven't verified it, but if it is, he easily wins 269 and gets the presidencyExactly
>>486975317They may have said they adjusted their methods in 2020 but they clearly did not, the RCP national average for Trump was within 1% of the 2016 average and it was off by roughly the same amount of the actual result.
>>486975520>he easily wins 269 and gets the presidency.anon, 269 is a tie and immediately throws us into the absolutely hilarious chaos timeline where Congress alone decides the election>>486975566Yeah but it would help their preferred candidate so nobody cares
>>486975012believing that rigging comes at an exponentially increasing, and at some point untenable, cost = bluepilled?what a retarded take.it's very clear that you were not here during twelve years of discussions about rigging and counter-rigging. specific discussions that go beyond this childish "they can overcome any number of votes in every jurisdiction and if you disagree you're bluepilled" tripe that you keep trying to derail with.>you are repetitive>what you say is obvious>your logic fails>you must be new heregot anything else to add to the projection collection?niggerfaggot
>>486975194They've moved from "there's no voter fraud" to "voter registration fraud doesn't mean there's going to be voter fraud." Ideally we're not supposed to notice that voter registration is the first requisite step in voter fraud. Why would anyone commit voter registration fraud (which has been officially established as happening in PA) if they don't intent to commit voter fraud. Fuck jannies and fuck riggers.
>>486975001>no u!Get a better script from your superiors you retarded shill.
>>486976339Youre only proving my point here that you are the emotional one.
>>486975001Are you for real dude? Voting for an administration that jails political opponents, wants the Ukrainian war to last forever, and unlimited illegal immigration to dilute the political representative of the average american sounds really libertarian to me.
>>486975489>she will need congressional approvalthey already passed the "inflation reduction act"we need price controls out of the overton window, now, or we're going to have famines.they will pass a federal abortion law, forever removing the issue from the states in contravention of the 10th amendment. you didn't address this.she will use executive orders to implement gun registries and further restrictions. you didn't address this.she won't expand oil leases which is entirely by executive election. you didn't address this.we'll have boots on the ground in ukraine and possibly iran. the fact that you didn't address this is ringing so many alarm bells that the term "red flag" doesn't cut it.you aren't a libertarian. you're not even human.>tariffsshow me a single libertarian theorist saying you should die on this hill in the face of the authoritarian chinese government paying $30k out of the cost of every EV, and marketing its billion dollar apps here while banning ours there?libertarians don't start trade wars. that doesn't mean they're can't act in self defense after a clear and aggregious breach of the NAP by totalitarians who want us dead.>immigration, which is extremely good for the economyhe wants skilled immigrationlibertarians only want open borders in combination with shutting down the welfare magnet, you would know this if you weren't larping.
>>486975632>There will likely be fewer election day voters and more dem election day voters this year. By how much? No one knows.For like the 20th time in the past week, the "muh early voters changed' cope holds no water. Both R's and D's are under the 2020 early voting totals. R's have gained more registered voters. Meaning there's just as many or more voters available on election day. For Dems to win, they have to outperform Reps tomorrow in person. That's doubtful because they never have.>muh covidNothing has changed between now and then for a real person to vote via mail if they want. Dems have zero reason to not vote early if they want to.> Why even hold elections if people are going to do the same thing as last time.What does this even mean? I never said they would do the same. I'm saying if things are the same, when reality is pointing to more favorable for Trump, he wins. I'm handicapping him and he's ok. Have you never done any modeling or projections before? You always have to make assumptions. Historical data is typically the #1 assumption.>For example Wisconsin does not provide info on party affiliationWhich is why I specifically called that out in the OP and told people not to read into it.
>>486975660>but they clearly did not,They did and it was even more wrong lol
>>486975660>They may have said they adjusted their methods in 2020 but they clearly did notSo when they say they've adjusted their methods now how can you be sure they have? Or done so correctly?
>>486975627that's very intersting. I would like to add, that scrutiny of the election is one of many levers that causes the aggregate costs of all those things we call "rigging" to balloon beyond all hope of a practical return. voting is another one.
>>486976647>Meaning there's just as many or more voters available on election day.Dude look at the total turnout and remaining registered voters state by state. Sure if 100% of people turn out there will be more voters than last time. .>Nothing has changed between now and then for a real person to vote via mail if they want. Dems have zero reason to not vote early if they want to.In 2020 Demshits were scared to be within 10ft of another person. There's no reason to believe that they will continue early voting at the same raate.
>>486975713>where Congress alone decides the electionevery state gets one vote (except in the house for some reason)it would be over in five minutes, republicans have 26-22 in the house and 2 states are splittrump would win[for full clarity, they would the post-election house membership, but democrats are not going to upset that 26-22 by much even in their best case scenario]
>>486957894Liberal men aren't voting for Kamala unless they are literally faggotsAlso I doubt you can accurate measure enthusiasm in a simple poll
>>486976456He says after immediately resorting to an emotional based argument of no u. You already proved my point with your own words you blithering buffoon. What a joke you are.
I mean wouldn't you forge or destroy a few ballots if it meant stopping Adolph Hitler?It's the only ethical choice>>486975001
>>486976612>they already passed the "inflation reduction act"we need price controls out of the overton window, now, or we're going to have famines.If Repubs get the house and Senate, she won't be able to pass stuff like this.>AbortionShould not be decided by the states imo. It should be federally protected.>she will use executive orders to implement gun registries and further restrictions. you didn't address this.No she won't, nothing happened during the Biden admin. I do remember bump stocks being (wrongly) banned during the presidency of Donald "Take the guns first due process second" Trump.>she won't expand oil leases which is entirely by executive election. you didn't address this.This is genuinely bad imo. I don't think it outweighs Trump's negatives.>you're not even human.And you're an overly emotional man child.>libertarian theorist saying you should die on this hill in the face of the authoritarian chinese government paying $30k out of the cost of every EVYou clearly don't understand how tariffs work.>libertarians only want open borders in combination with shutting down the welfare magnetYes, I want this.
>>486956042https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/10/breaking-dem-operative-caught-undercover-video-explaining-how/
>>486956042Why do independents only vote early? seems sus
>>486976737Because their poll numbers are far different than 2016/2020, and there is a lot of evidence that they're herding far more than 2016/20.
SOMEBODY PLEASE POINT ME TO A RELIABLE PREDICTOR, 4 YEARS AGO A PIECE OF SHIT ANON MADE ME LOSE A LOT OF MONEY SAYING THAT HE HAD INSIDE INFO ABOUT ARIZONA AND THAT IT WAS IN THE BAG.I WILL RECOVER EVERYHING TOMORROW BUT PLEASE GIVE ME THE NAME OF A GUY THAT I CAN TRUST
>>486976978You're arguing that something that has never happened before will happen this time based off zero evidence
>>486976978>Dude look at the total turnout and remaining registered voters state by state. Sure if 100% of people turn out there will be more voters than last time. .he's the guy who collected all these statsand he said republicans have more registered voters, but smaller numbers of early votes coming in.implying many have yet to vote.which of you is pulling numbers out of your ass? my gut says the one with excel screenshots knows what he's talking about but I'm open to being proven wrong.
>>486977094It’s not that simple, anon-sama. While it’s true that POTUS is chosen by the House, it’s the Senate that decides VP. It’s entirely possible that the Dems take that one and we end up with a Trump/Walz admin for four years given what we know
>>486977375price control does not work. small shops ignore it because the police are not numerous enough to enforce it. big labels ignore it because they can assemble billion dollar teams of lawyers (all named Berg) on a whim. controlling prices by law is as intelligent as banning alcohol or guns.>basic misconception about the constitution as it relates to healthcaretypical>tariffs badyawn>borders/welfareyou say you want less of a welfare state yet everything you do contributes to its growth. Curious! It's almost as if you were a retard.
>>486977609>different election cycles have different poll numberswow amazing. just like how 2020 had far different poll numbers than 2016
>>486977687When I said more, I meant relative to 2020. Not total. The point is 2020 is something never happened before and assuming things will be the same this time around is fucking stupid.>>486977744Dig into the data yourself.https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1XQGRYuhK_v-9NZ-V_VZKLxtSGezbIj2u
>>486977840You didn't even understand most of my response to you lmao. Everytime I assume the average terminally online rightoid isnt intellectually and morally inferior to even the average normie I am proven wrong.
>>486962502the USA has secret voting. So because you don't know who the cheater actually voted for, you can't accurately deduct their vote once it has been cast. See also: the chinaman voting illegally as a real-life example of this in action.
>>486976978The thing you are missing is they are underperforming rates before covid as well. Dems always vote more early regardless of covid. The problem for them now is they are down in registrations, early votes and the polls. All 3 historically they are up in. If they are down in registrations that means less of a pool to get votes from. Down in early votes historically is a sign of low dem turnout and down in polls for an incumbent party historically is also a terrible place to be, especially when Trump historically outperforms his polling.Its not about 1 thing its about everything and its all trending to the same conclusion.
>>486975627Anon if there are 25M fake votes why not 50M? Why not 60M? Why even let Republicans win anything at all, at least at a national level?When did the 25M happen? Just 2020? How many in 2016, and 2012, and 2008, and so on? What's the method of creating these? How can you ensure that you never exceed voter registration by "believable" amounts or that no one snitches? You can't answer any of these because you are throwing shit at the wall. But go ahead and deflect. Call me a newfag or give a no u type response. Clearly the guy trying to do data based analysis is the redditfag election tourist.
>>486978061No, based on early voting metrics dems need to flip reps on day-of voting which hasn't happened since mail-in ballots became a thing in the west coast states.
>>486976978>Dude look at the total turnout and remaining registered voters state by stateI did. That's the 2nd table dumbass. Republicans AND Democrats have voted less at this point than in 2020. Republicans gained more registered voters. There are more people available to vote tomorrow than in 2020. Will they vote, that's a fair question. But they are available.
>>486978150>The thing you are missing is they are underperforming rates before covid as well.I believe this is false. Please point me to data if you have it.
>>486977509because we don't like being next to zionists, boomers, and cringey leftists on election day.
>>486958443In 2016 it was 3am ET when it was called. 2020 we all know was a shit show and took weeks. I would think 2024 will be more like 2016 depending on how well Trump does. Could be a land slide but who really knows
>>486978417>No, based on early voting metrics dems need to flip reps on day-of votingNo they don't. They just need to vote early at higher rates than they did in 2020. For example in PA they can still have 400k less votes and still win.
>>486956042The biggest take-away from the 2020 election is that early voting drives voter turnout. The fact that republicans pushed early voting will result in their turnout being higher than if they hadn't pushed early voting. Democrats have assumed their party will turnout to early vote. They didn't and even less will show up on election day because Harris is an unpopular candidate with left leaning voters.
>>486978805>Democrats have assumed their party will turnout to early vote.They also assume they still have the youth vote advantage this time around.
>>486978805>that massive urban dropSurely trump wins based on that alone.
>>486978420>Republicans AND Democrats have voted less at this point than in 2020In PA, 98% of the early voting Republicans have turned out compared to 67% of the early voting Democrats. Harris doesn't drive turnout.
>>486978253Because being too blatant about the fraud will permanently destroy all faith in american elections and by extension institutions. The number of people who openly believe our elections are fix went to a whopping 15% from negligible levels due to the 2020 steal.
>>486956042god bless autism. doin the lords work.
>>486978061>When I said more, I meant relative to 2020The turnout is as a portion of 2020. Do the math yourself. 679,140 D votes in AZ in 2024 divided by 911,135 D votes in 2020. That's 74.5%, round to 75% for formatting.Both parties and independents are below 2020 early voting totals. You are expecting Dems to outpeform Reps on election day which hasn't happened in decades.
>>486977375>she won't be able to passtheyalreadypassedtheinflationreductionactcan I go ahead and accuse you of being a lying shill now?>It should be federally protected.gtfoit's the clearest 10th am. issue under the sun>No she won't (use executive orders to implement gun registries and further restrictions)this is a remarkably stupid thing to take on faith>nothing happened during the Biden adminthe biden admin's justice department (under failed SC pick merrick garland) defended several gun cases all the way to the supreme court, and the protections of mcdonald and heller were walked back for the first as a direct consequence, you lying shill>"Take the guns first due process second"archive search shows you shills have copy pasted this line literally tens of thousands of times.I respect a man who states his opinion without insisting on making it the law.meanwhile, kamala promises to use executive orders to implement gun registries and further restrictions. she will also name at least one supreme court justice if elected. probably that fascist turtle merrick garland again. you are no libertarian.>I don't think it outweighs Trump's negatives.none of your supposed negatives withstood scrutiny. you probably mailed in your vote like a faggot but it's not too late to make a less retarded choice now that you know better.>you're an overly emotional man childlol, pure seething projection from the fake libertarian after getting thoroughly called out>You clearly don't understand how tariffs work.i demonstrated that I understand how tarriffs work. they are a necessary response to illegal trade practices, as I described, and there is not a single libertarian theorist who disagrees. comparative advantage does not exist in the face of chinese trade practices. every libertarian understands this and not one of them will die on this hill, prove me wrong.
>>486979170>Because being too blatant about the fraud will permanently destroy all faith in american elections and by extension institutions.Also remembering that they gave away the tactics in 2020 so theoretically it would be much harder to pull off again.You think the election observers are gonna go home and let them count ballots in secret at 3am again?
>>486978061>Dig into the data yourself.that's ok, OP already didhe has spreadsheets and everythingthanks for admitting you were lying
>>486956042Doing Kek’s work, Anon
>>486956042ACK!!!! again
>>486979681
>>486960353> they actually have a stake in how things are runYou can also be sure they live in the community they're voting in. Fun fact, you didn’t need to be a landowning white male to participate in government. Madison wasn’t and he created our government. There was also a female congresswoman before the 19th amendment.
>>486956042Trump will win.
>>486977748that detail slipped my mindmy initial reaction was that this is funny and ultimately meaningless, making walz the most vestigial VP in modern history (even against some serious contenders like joe and kamala)then I realized the position this would put trump in. looking over his shoulder day and night, not even able to trust the SS...
>>486980000Checked
>>486979170Exactly the point we were making. The dumbass I responded to doesn't grasp that.
>>486980000Wewlad
>>486980000
>>486980000The hits just keep coming
>>486980000It's Hoever
>>486980000Where the fuck have you been old friend? Welcome back.
>>486980000holy witnessed! Trump will be 47!
>>486980000It's happening.
>>486978066>You didn't even understand>terminally online rightoid>intellectually and morally inferior>normalfag rendered as "normie"these are the sort of replies I look forI know that they are one click away from some hard truth
>>486978473I cannot find my comparison charts but here is an example of what I mean. Early voting turnout has been trending upward and dems are favored in early voting as well. The rates overall will drop after covid yes but the takeaway is Republicans gained ground as dems lost ground. Overall yes both lost ground after covid but pre covid Dems are nowhere close to the gap they had on the Republicans as they did before covid. Especially in battleground states. Dems per population should be graining more and dropped off less than they had. Their totals are not where they should be if they were following their previous trend lines but the Republicans are ahead of their trend. Thats a sign of voter turnout and enthusiasm favoring Republicans. You have to back engineer this and factor in population changes as best possible but its showing a trend that dems are at best stagnating and republicans are growing faster than expected. That difference wins elections. Especially when you know republicans also vote more same day.https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/31/us/elections/earlyvoters.html
>>486980000checked
>>486956443Considering repub turnout is down this election too, I figure Trump is going to win this election not because of his policies, but rather, because Kamala is wildly unpopular.
>>486980000>>486977777>>486938888What does it mean?
>>486980000witnessed
>>486979080>In PA, 98% of the early voting Republicans have turned outwait, what does this mean?98% of the mail-in ballots requested by registered republicans have been submitted?
>>486980000Kamalasisters what’s our response?
>>486980597It's never been so hoever as it's hoever right now.
>>486980000>>486980597The bear has left its cave or something.
>>486980597Magic. Also you forgot >>486941111
>>486980597>>486980860Time to buy the dip on polymarket
>>486980597orange dictator will come back stronger than ever and all of us will get tired of the winning.
>>486979371Liberals are emotional creatures, they often reject reality and substitute their own. No amount of data that you show them will even convince them that Harris is going to lose, anon.They're just that mindbroken over there in the cult of transgenders. Don't waste your time with them, it's a lost cause
>>486956042fuck, the Republican poll watchers blocked a half million fraudulent ballots in PAI fully expect PA to have those ballots at the very last minute on election day
>>486960792Nevada is red barring 12+% differential in how indies vote according to. 80% of turnout has ALREADY happened and Trump is leading.https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
>>486980752I see 97%, but same thing. What it means is there are 97% of early votes cast by Republicans compared to 2020. Meanwhile there is 57% cast by Dems compared to 2020. So R early voting is 3% less than there was while D's are down 43%. This has no bearing on election day votes (in theory). They had a lead of 1M votes in 2020 and now it's only 400k votes. Assuming election day turnout is similar, Trump wins by a good amount.It's safe to think election day turnout for Republicans is similar because of two main reasons. One, their net voter registration increased, so more are available to vote for them, and logic on prior voting. Why would someone who went in person to vote for Trump in 2020 with covid (ignoring that's covid was basically harmless) not vote in person in 2024? Covid made it annoying and gay to do things in groups, yet R's turned out for Trump. If someone voted for him in 2020, what happened that made them not vote for him now? There are some old farts who think Jan 6th was bad but I think that's offset by the people who hate Biden/Harris and maybe sat out last time.
>>486980000All these matching digits today.
>>486981521>If someone voted for him in 2020, what happened that made them not vote for him now?According to Atlas intel, 96% of Trump voters from 2020 intend to vote for him in 2024, but only 89% of Biden 2020 voters intend to vote for Harris in 2024. That is goddamn devastating.
>>486956838honestly sounds like these elections just run on the honour system
>>486982126That would seal it if true. Honestly that lines up fairly well with early voting turnout
>>486980000 Kek abandoned trump in 2020 but he came back for his boy
>>486956443What the fuck.I thought you fuckers said this was going to be a landslide.It's essentially a coin toss actually, and if we're wrong on any single swing state then it's all fucking lost. Not to mention they said it'll take a week for NV outcome to be known.
>>486956042God bless you and your autism, anon
>>486981521cheers
>>486956042the population changes so I would prefer you to see them as ratios of R to D and how they have changed than by margin
>>486982964are the fuckers in the room with you right now?
>>486982964>Not to mention they said it'll take a week for NV outcome to be known.No they didn't. Like 90% of voting in Nevada is early voting. They said that about Maricopa County in Arizona but Trump has the biggest lead in the polls in AZ of any swing state.
>>4869829641. I never said that.2. A win is a win.3. If Trump overperforms polls by even half of what he's done the last two times, it is a landslide. I don't want to be blindly optimistic but he could certainly pick up GA, MI, and WI. Possible NH and VA too.
>>486956042RURAL EARLY VOTERS ACHIEVE 2020 EV TURNOUT.ITS FUCKING OVER.TRUMP more than 75 million votes.HARRIS less than 65 million votes.LANDSLIDEYOU SHOULDNT BE ASKING YOURSELF WHICH SWING STATES WILL TRUMP WIN, HE WILL WIN THEM ALL. AND HE WILL KEEP WINNING. SO ASK YOURSELF, WHAT ELSE WILL TRUMP WIN? VA, NH, NJ? LIKELY!
>>486956042Thank you for your service anon, may you be blessed with the Waifu of your race of choice.
>>486983809Sorry, meant to post -2 days nation.
>>486983809TRUMP WILL WIN MEXICO. CALLING IT NOW¡VIVA TRUMP! LETS FUCKING GO
Before this archives I want to say again thanks everyone for the engagement. Felt a bit like old /pol/ in this threads and I'm glad people found this interesting.Looking forward to shitposting with you all tomorrow night.
>>486972808Polling was pretty accurate in the midterms
>>486984404Go do some exit polls for us anon. We love your work. You in a swing state?
>>486956042>/pol/ math is THIS bad
>>486984404I appreciate all the threads anon.
>>486984543No I'm in Iowa. Trump should carry pretty easily
>>486956042My Nigga Trump finna Win
>>486984670looking at that gif of a group of laughing soldiers, I totally forgot the high-effort OP and dozens of anons contributing to the discussion in an interesting way. in my desperation to avoid being the butt of the joke, I now identify with the laughing pixelating soldiers. haha! OP and those anons, such fools! I am secure from humiliation once again.
>>486979917same for bernie
>>486984670Oh please do go on. Tell me specifically what's incorrect.
>>486961911>What's the correct course of actionFinancial collapse and recovery.Severe, global collapse. I'm talking about Weimar, but for the whole world.That has two important properties:1.) It will dislodge The Powers That Be very effectively.2.) There is no guarantee that recovery looks like anything you want.But it's also your only hope.
>>486964791>Basically this is a worse case off of known dataThis is the most convincing analysis I've seen.Anywhere.Great work.
>>486985299So your solution is to do nothing and just pray for an unprecidented event which you admit would suck and could not even work?
>>486985299future anon here, I followed your instructionsI now live in brazil and/or zimbabweplease bury some food and ammo and post coords in this thread, you're my only hope
>>486985072You mean you don't buy the boomer lady who really really loves killing babies' Iowa poll?
>>486978805trump telling his supporters not to vote by mail fucked him in 2020
>>486985606>So your solution is to do nothing and just pray for an unprecidented [sic] eventIt's an unprecedented time. A true global economy where leadership is in lock step around the world, holding hands and walking off the same cliff.>which you admit would suckAnyone not admitting this is selling you a fiction.>and could not even work?Where is it written that this planet is somehow immune from becoming the global superstate dystopia our establishment dreams of?
>>486985185LFG!!!!
>>486956990transplants from Mass and elsewhere. the entirety of the southern portion of the state from Concord down is also like barely 60% white anymore. there are so many fucking spics and nogs if you go to a store like walmart during the working day if you are white you are a fucking minority. i honestly cannot fathom how they changed things this fast as my high school just a couple decades ago was 98% white, with a few spics/chinks and a total of 3 black kids. I just looked at the current year graduates and it's like 50/50 white/minority now
