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boobminder

nfl week 1 picks

friday
cowboys
chiefs

sunday morning
gnats
browns
steelers
cardinals
falcons
dolphins
pats
jags

sunday afternoon games
broncos -8
seahwaks
lions
texans
bills

monday
kangz

Well lads you liked my picks at the end of the previous thread? You like to put these picks in your mouth? >>150514640

>>150517313
Cowboys and Eagles play Thursday

>>150520052
right. we're taking the revitalized dem boyz in a trap game people dont realize how much of a headache parsons was

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I need to make £16 of profit in this next week betting.

What tips have you got?

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>Christian Yelich shitting the bed to officially close out my absolutely horrid month of single digit wins

The pain of NFL only a few days away as well

take it to >>>/biz/ faggots

>>150522625
Kys

>>150522494
Wait for the mandatory England Superboost on Saturday and claim your £10 profit.

>>150522494
Dolphins
Seahawks
Falcons
Lions
Pick 1 or all 4

is messi playing tonight against seattle?

Insane choking by Townsend. Had 7 match points in that second set. Let's see if Krejcikova does anything with that gifted third set. I think so but it's not like she wasn't choking either.

>>150522754
I dont know what any of those things are or what to back

>>150523748
Nfl

>>150523646
8 match points even. 7 in the tiebreak. Ridiculous amount of sloppy mistakes by both. Krejcikova was lucky to have won this. Pegula should comfortably beat Krejcikova like this. Definitely taking her to beat Krejcikova. Odds should be around @1.5 I hope.

ufc anon what do you think about imavov at plus money i dont think caio with two weight cuts is going to have the juiice

>>150524588
i wanted to take pegula but my gay bookie doesnt have futures

>>150525355
That's rough. Honestly haven't heard of a bookie not offering futures markets for any of the 4 slams before. Especially a US book not offering the US Open? That's weird. Even the shitty bookies in Germany that can be stingy with smaller tournaments generally manage to offer the slams.

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Let’s ’av it

I type "mafia" in sofa and aiscore chats

>>150508090
2 wins and a loss so far. Pegula won in an easy 2-0 and Krejcikova somehow evaded the 2-0 loss to make the comeback. Struff lost in a completely one-sided 3-0. Really thought he might be able to put up a figh but not when you serve like he has been all match.

Still waiting on the Vondrousova match but already sharing picks for Monday:

Muchova to beat Kostyuk @1.6

Alexandrova to win the first set against Swiatek @3

Haddad Maia to beat Anisimova @4

Not much I like for the men's matches that day. Bublik to win a set against Sinner looks very tempting at plus odds but can't bring myself to actually bet on Bublik.

>>150527444
The bet mafia its really disgusting,not even animals sport are safe from them.
I swear my bet365 its flagged or some shit that every time i bet the worst happen

i have this weird feeling fritz will beat djokovic, but i wish the odds were higher. germany what do you think?

dogs were feasting in every sport today. few underdogs even pulled off a comeback in the dying moments at 4.00+ odds on the live bet.

>>150531427
I get what you're saying. Kind of have a similar feeling. If Fritz is ever going to beat Djokovic in an important match now would probably be the time. The odds even seem too suspiciously low. But it's still hard to trust Fritz in this matchup considering how hard he struggles in it every time. Even last year in Shanghai where I thought he might be able to do it he still lost without winning a set anyway. To a Djokovic who doesn't even care much about these tournaments outside of slams anymore. I don't normally bet on this but I think rather than taking Fritz to win I would rather bet on over 4.5 sets because realistically if Fritz actually does win it would probably be a close call and I get the impression Djokovic has been long overdue for a close match at a slam already. He hasn't played 5 sets since RG last year. The one thing I will say is that Fritz seems to have had a pretty consistent serve all tournament which is really important. If he can keep up his serve he has a legit shot.

>>150528695
By the way Vondrousova won 2-1 against Rybakina. Going to keep fading Rybakina in these later rounds of tournaments. Also Pegula opened @1.55 against Krejcikova so pretty much what I expected >>150524588. But the odds dropped quite a bit already. See her @1.4 now.

>>150528695
muchova has a 27k and 20k bet on her so the market supports this decision

>>150533456
I was wrong about Rublev but surely this time I'm causing a 47k loss for sure

TCU -2.5 vs North Carolina tonight @ -142
tcu returns a great qb and offense against a frankenstein team with no chemistry
I think unc takes a week or two to figure it out and starts slow here

>>150534390
for me its
btts15no @+303 on dk
btts15yes @-280 on 365

90% of the money is on the eagles against the cowboys thursday, in brasil.

in brasil

anyone have any insight into ecuador soccer? delfin vs libertad tonight. any altitude issues?

>>150538593
Delfin plays on Manta, so no altitude issues, anyway teams in ecuador are used to altitude. Not sure about that match, maybe live bet on overs.
The only winer I like for today is Chapecoense @1.87. But I'll wait to bet live .

>>150539322
thank you

>>150517313
switching pats to raiders

>>150540047
and bills to ravens

>>150533593
Muchova really needs to learn how to close out a match in 2 sets. This should have been a 2-0 with how things were going but turned into a long 3 set struggle instead. This has been happening a lot. Well, at least she still got the win anyway.

Also can't stop commenting on the Pegula future but it's looking better and better. She's now the 4th favourite to win the tournament after Sabalenka, Swiatek and Osaka. If she beats Krejcikova, which I obviously assume she will, then she might even have a shot at making the final.

>>150540517
One thing I forgot to mention: Muchova seemed to be having problems with her back again. Seemed to be doing fine in the third set but might be something that affects the match against Osaka. Hope due to the injury concerns she's an underdog because I'll definitely still take her then. Think she will either be mostly fine or retire if it's really that bad.

>>150540917
Seeing Osaka @1.55 now. Going to wait some more because I expect money to be coming in on Osaka so I can hopefully get Muchova for even higher odds.

i feel like betting on the baseball -1.5/+1.5 runline is better than betting on the moneyline. the moneyline is set as if every game was going to be a very tight game like its hockey or soccer, but on on almost any given night, only about 3-5 of the 13-15 games actually end as a 1 run game. teams will try to smallball a late inning 2+ run lead for "insurance" for the closer. as it gets deeper into the game, and the players at the top of the lineup are taking their 4th/5th ABs against a new reliever in a high leverage situation, the advantage goes to the offense.

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Who do we got boys?

I’m taking TCU and the over. Fired up home crowd and Belichick have me wanting to say the complete opposite, but then I remembered Tom Brady doesn’t live in Chapel Hill

>>150541921
tcu under

>>150541921
Strating my american hand egg run today (pre season meme doesnt count)
Going TCU

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>>150541921
lets go points!

rangers vs diamondbacks - a run scored in the first inning - no @ 2.00
patrick corbain has not allowed a run in the first inning in 21 out of 25 of his starts this season. hes coming off his best outing of the season, where he pitched 8.0 shutout innings allowing 3 hits against the angels. the diamondbacks have not scored a run in the first inning in 7 straight games. ryne nelson, with a 2.42 era at home, coming of back to back quality starts, has not given up a run in the first inning in 8 straight games. this will not be an easy bet, i doubt either side gets an easy 1-2-3 to start the game, and 1 team will likely even have a runner in scoring position. but neither team bats very well (both teams <.250 avg) with runners in scoring position.

>>150543140
UNC better step it the fuck up

>>150545398
Get fucked.

>>150528695
1 win and a loss total. Muchova won but the 2 underdogs lost 2-0. Not too surprising. Should have known we have reached that stage of the tournament where almost all the favourites win. For today I already said I'm going with Pegula to beat Krejcikova. Muchova's odds are @3 now against Osaka so I'm taking that too but the match is tomorrow.

does any of you have a method or do you just gamble for results what ever is on????

euro soccer match schedule is out. now i can start working on bets till end of the month.

based.

>>150548518
Ultimately it will all come down to a VAR decision so don't overthink

still seeing consistent 10+% arb value on NCAAF both teams to score x points. not going to mention it again since theres only 2 or 3 of us arb fags here.

>>150549646
yeah also "favourites" often times choke. im gonna use less money this season so not worried about losing.

>>150548506
methods are gay just know ball. if you dont know ball ur retarded and ur just losing money

Lost my Ncaaf gain from yesterday on fucking horses again
Those jewish jockeys are breaking my balls,thats the most retarded way to bet horse that are supposed to win lose everytime you bet on them and when you fade they win easily. You can clearly see the retard jockey pushing the horse behind another or just giving up striking in the middle of the race to just give up in the final part
Pray for me brothers so i dont bet another fent on this scam

took Burton-Liverpool U23s BTTS+O2.5 @ -125

>>150548183
Pegula dominated in a quick 2-0. Definitely think she can put up a fight against Sabalenka this time. If Vondrousova wins I expect Pegula to win that match.

Going for a greedy last minute longshot tonight: Hartono to beat Eala @4.9 in Guadalajara.

I need to make a big comeback, I havent gambled in a while, I need to escape wagie hell before I kill myself. What are the best strategies for gambling?

>>150553859
>What are the best strategies for gambling?
With football, always take ANY team to score. Especially live, usually late in the game simplify the ml to team goals to total goals. Over 0.5 in game. The goal can arrive from both sides. That's i believe the greatest lesson i ever learned with regards to betting football.
Take over 0.5 in game over over 0.5 team totals

>>150553859
I was making money betting on horse last week in 3 days i made 70 dollars with some retarded strategy/calculation that was working for some reason but then i started losing non stop save a few exceptions,now im down 125 dollars,10 dollars was my gain yesterday wasted

>>150554089
Btw betfair exchange has a bug where you bet a horse and use the automatic cashout,if the horse its winning the odds are lowering you gain your stake back but if another horse approches yours at the time of the cashout the money that was supposed to be your cashout gain its multiplied by the current odd if your horse win
Example: i beted 30 reais,15 reais in 2 different horse and i put my automatic cashout at 20 but the above happened so i gained 20 reais with the other horses but if mine had won it i would gain 170

>>150553516
Vondrousova just pulled out of the tournament. Looks like she got some kind of injury in practice. Sabalenka gets a walkover and is confirmed to play Pegula in the semi-final now. I know I should just let my future ride but if I can get Pegula to win a set for slight plus odds I'll go for it. Assume Sabalenka will be a @1.25 or so favourite.

>>150553859
What's your bankroll? Here's a strategy. Start with 300,400. Go all in. Make it 600. Then 800, then 1000. You gain momentum. And then you can apply money management. 10% special, 5% big stake. To play on the front foot. There's 2 stages: playing on the front foot, and chasing [losses]. Depends how your mental is at the time. It's all mental: discipline and strategies.

Patience, money mange, and gut feeling.

Meanwhile
Nobody:
Absolutely nobody:
Not a single soul in observable universe:
(((bookies))): 1.85 ; 1.85

>>150554254
Djoko / Fritz?

>>150554339
i thought about betting fritz and i thought about betting djokovic and in the end i decided whoever i bet on would drag out my suffering. so for me the bet is 5 sets

And another trick, if you know lol, when there's games listen to casters during the game, and they'll tel you who wins. League of legends betting is different to everything else. Cause here all drafts are different. And when a team get a lead they usually win. A semi sigficant lead
. And all players are pros, the best of the best. So if they have better champions they win. Imagine playing 1 v 1 fifa. If two players of similar level, if one has ronaldinho overall 91 he's gonna win every time against an overall ...84;

>>150554339
Pretty much wrote what I think already here >>150533373. Really don't like how low the odds for Fritz are. My first reaction was thinking that Djokovic should have lower odds but his body doesn't quite seem to keep up in these later stages of slams anymore. Even if you couldn't really tell in the previous round because Struff didn't even attempt to put up a fight. Also expect this to be a clsoe match. Over 4.5 sets is looking more and more tempting. Might make an exception and bet on that but I'm not fully decided yet. Still got another 2 hours or so to consider it.

>>150554406
And yes, this works also and especially on UNDERDOGS.
One team 1.20, one at 4.00
On the map. And the dog gets a lead. And odds are. 1.85 1.85, it's highly likely the second team is gonna win.
If the favourites get a lead the odds drop to 1.08 before they dissapear completely for the remaining of the map

>>150554421
So there's value of nole

>>150554444
On*

Nole physically weak
Fritz playing at home
First time to make a surprise and get a win over GOATkovic ?

>>150554375
Hmm, betting the over
>Fritz dfts. Djokobitch 3:1

Russia @1.45 v Iordania
5-1

Qatar v Russia @2.20
Wtf, i want sum of that shit

giants -1.5 @ 1.66,
i would even consider, pitcher to record the win - logan webb - yes @ 1.83

>>150554339
Fritz seems so obvious to me. The public really wants Djokovic to win but Fritz will dominate. I think its 3-0 desu

>>150555284
I'm usually good at this. My mental line is Fritz -500.

I'm genuinely thinking about the years/decades of Djokovic Bias. Realistically Fritz is a massive favorite. I want everyone to consider their biases.

Maryland over today

>>150555644
What are you talking about?

>>150517313
>gnats
Stopped reading there

>>150555688
I'm seeing Djokovic +175 and mentally seeing Fritz -500 unfortunately. Sometimes betting lines are the great revealers of bias and decades of Djokovic's legacy are embedded in his line. The more beloved and the more embedded his legacy the more bs his line is

>>150554498
I put a small bet on Fritz but I think he'll blow it

>>150555656
Oh nvm its fryday

Fritz kwabbing

Novak is cooked. I know nostalgia is epic but its ogre

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Has anyone seen a line like this before? Gotham are 6 point favorites in a soccer game lmao. Max I've seen is -2.5

>>150557204
nope

fritz blows

Shitz

what a meme game to bet on. giants with a 2 run lead before the rockies even get the first out of the game. and then the rockies starting pitcher gets ejected after 8 pitches. i believe that is technically an infinite era appearance from kyle freeland today.

It is now over for Djokovic.

>>150558547
Crowd got in his head

2-1 lead for djokovic and his live moneyline odds are now 1.50 up from 1.44 pre game. interesting. is Vegas fading him in real time?

>>150558696
Fritz needed a tiny break to clean shit up. It was obvious from the start

Fritz is simply going to claw Djokovoics win away. He's going to use his sharpened finger nails to wither away at the goo of the quarterfinals trophy. He's going to stick his long fingers in holes which unlock extract bonuses to win the round. Djokovic will have his will sucked from him by 15 tiny witches summoned by a wiccan priestess.

Goblonic entities will move in. They will slowly peel and chip away at Novak Djokovic's defenses. He's unprepared for the witches attacks. He will have internal feelings that he has never felt. I worry for him but I will find pleasure in Fritz's witchless victory

>>150559114
I genuinely pray for those who can't see the goblins. There is a 10% chance they are on Djokers side but they seem devious. Fritz will benefit

he lost lol

>>150557308
As a youth I lost a lot of money when the US women beat the thai women and the spread was like 12 and they set a record 14 or something. I learned the game is rigged young.

That being said this may be my last time to bet on Joker to win with good odds and likely outcome so I hammered this match

I'm going to be honest. There was a goblin whispering about Taylor Fritz but for the past 15 minutes he has had a long goblinic finger inserted in my nose. He has been browsing my thoughts and steeling them. I thought it would pay off but Fritz's struggles has inspired me to whistleblow.

fritz is a fucking bum

>>150559178
*praying he gets break*

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>they bet on Fritz

in that giants rockies game the giants player hit a homer in the fifth, and the fan sitting in the outfield reached up to try and catch it and got heemed hard. his food went everywhere. those line drive home runs are way more dangerous to catch than a towering blast.

pegula...

i was hoping alcaraz's odds would be a bit higher than 1.34, think i'll still go for it because i'm sure he'll win

>>150550456
im gambling on europaleague and comfyrence league. its teams from different countries and different leagues.

i dont have time to watch every team participating.

Tonight Al Rayyan v Qatar SC. Overs. Would take over 3, model also fancies Roger Guedes anytime goalscorer

>2 friendlies that might have 5 goals:
Romania v Canada over 4.5 @6.50
Mexico v Japan over 4.5 @6

>>150554761
>>150554785
Russia's games should also be high scoring. With jordan 5-1, or maybe ...2-0, but qatar for sure goalfest. 2-4 , 3-4,...

Russia jordan o4.5 @5.7
Qatar russia o4.5 @7

>>150548183
Aside from Muchova I'm also going for De Minaur to win the second set against Auger-Aliassime @1.65 today.

What if jordan sits back and are shitters? I'd trust only russia more. To score 2+ @1.59, 3+ @2.75 and 4+ @5.50 ;
And with qatar i think they're MILES behind russia, so check this out:
>In qatar, russia over 1.5 @2.00
which obvs means o2.5 @4.75
o3.5 @11
And o4.5@30
Stake it pyramidal 50,100,700,1700;
Merry Christmas.

Danish shitter missed a pen and cost me 20 bucks.

>>150564046
>american
>betting soccer
you get what you deserve

>>150554008
Allright, Ill try that
>>150554089
And how do I know what horse will win? I bet on football because I know about it
>>150554327
Ive lost a lot of money, but I can lose some more. I usually put 30 or 50 dollars and try to move up from there. When I reach a higher number I make bigger bets. Maybe it should be the other way around

>>150562391
Tried to be too specific with the second set. Thought De Minaur might need some time to find his footing but of course he won the first set and then lost a really close second one.

Since there isn't much going on in these last few days of a slam anymore I'm looking for ways to also lose money in challenger tournaments. Going for Pridankina to beat Arango @2.25 in Guadalajara. Hopefully that works better than the Hartono longshot which was of course a complete failure. >>150553516