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Is football a solved game? What sports can be considered "solved"?
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>>150729674
a game cannot be considered solved if the rules change, baseball would be the closest to it because it has the most data but they still change things

povertyball only recently got any money into it so you only recently learned about how to use data
this makes /sp/ seethe because they like the flashy stars of the plumberball era
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>>150729674
Football has too many variables. Datafaggotry is trying its best, and it is succedding to a degree in turning the entire game into a calculation: the decrease in long-range shots and dribblings, the pass and possession fetish. But while it does have an impact, it is not enough to solve the sport
Basketball and baseball are quite close to being solved
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>>150729674
No team has been able to solve football, everyone thought Pep did it but even he got exposed eventually
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>>150729674
Personally I have a hard time believing any non-turn based game could ever be solved. Same goes with games where there is more than one player on each team. There's simply too many variables.
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>>150729762
>nooo i want my naive plumberball, stop using analytics
cope
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>>150729800
(You)'ll have to try a bit harder with your bait attempt
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>>150729674
most track and field events are solved. There will be records broken ... time and distance and so on ... but the sport itself is pretty much solved. the last great innovation was the Fosbury flop in the high jump.
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>>150729827
i know it hurts to know your sport was amateur trash which wasn't worth Data Analytics until recently but now you've joined the big boys and your plumberball shit won't fly anymore
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>>150729854
Rules and sometimes gear keep this stuff in check. The javelin change of 1986, or the fact that jumping with your head forwards like a spear and somersault (which would be the best approach) isn't allowed in the long jump
Apart from that, I don't know whether these events can be considered solved since are the closest thing we have to determining human limits. There is some sort of ideal form, but it cannot be imposed the same way onto any athlete. And while it is true that the "predictable result if both players play perfectly" stuff seems to apply to a race between prime Bolt and prime anyone else, you still don't really know where these limits really lie
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>>150729879
Hmm, that's a little bit better, yes
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Soccer is too low-scoring and too hard to parametrize (?) to be a solved game. Even an advanced stat such as 'xG' outside of penalties barely scratches the surface as regards modelling probable outcomes.
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>>150729674
Not a sport but whatever that shitty olympic bike thing was where everyone just hugged the wall refusing to move, waiting for someone to say fuck it and be the first to go. Just pure slipstream exploitation garbage
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You can only solve a game through statistics but as long as stats can’t provide proper context, they’ll always be limited.

For example: was that goal just a lucky tap-in, or did the scorer create it through individual skill? Was it the result of great play, or simply a huge mistake by the opposition? Was an assist truly important, or just a routine pass before the receiver dribbled half the opposition and scored on their own? Was the opposition playing at their best, or were they having an off day?, etc.

Until stats start answering these kinds of questions, they will always be inferior to the eye test and you can’t solve anything if numbers don’t surpass what the eye test can tell you.

This is why statfaggotry will never be able to predict half of the upsets that happened at the Club World Cup for example.
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No.

If you hit the bar, the ball goes one way you're the winner, the other way you're the loser.
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Analytics are the antithesis of sapience
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Baseball is a solved game. Just hit a home run at every at-bat bro and you're guaranteed to win (actually technically the game will never end)
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no because there are an infinite number of decisions in a game
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>>150729674
of course it isn't, how can you read that definition and think football fits the criteria of a solved game? it's literally right there.
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>>150729701
Stats are only relevant to sports built around set pieces like handegg and baseball. They are otherwise meaningless.
That's why data in soccer is only used to justify dumb money.



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