>Educational sites: https://www.investopedia.com/https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain>Financial TV Streams: https://www.newslive.com/american/cnbc.htmlhttps://www.livestreamy.net/bloomberg/>Charts: https://www.tradingview.comhttps://www.finscreener.comhttps://www.koyfin.com/https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com>Screeners: https://finviz.com/https://www.tradingview.com/screenerhttps://etfdb.com/>Options https://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.comhttps://optionstrat.com/https://www.optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices>Pre-Market and Live data: https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futureshttps://finance.yahoo.com/>Calendars https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendarhttps://www.earningswhispers.com/calendarhttps://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html>Boomer Investing 101: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started>Misc: https://tradingeconomics.com/https://finance.yahoo.com/trending-tickershttps://market24hclock.com/https://wallmine.com/https://fintel.io/https://www.dividendchannel.com/drip-returns-calculatorhttps://brokerchooser.com/https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/us-market-ratesPrevious: >>60222130
>Homeward bound>I wish I was>Homeward boundddd
>>60224198No, Osaka, you don't get it.........
>>6022418310Y emergency button was hit last night midnight estt
Reposting from prior thread:I cannot envision a scenario where SPY does not drop to 400 this year.In all honesty, I'm not touching stocks until then. Sure we had a fun week but outside of this tariff stuff, the economy is actually fucked. I think that is going over most people's head, their focus is on the tariffs alone, and not the other 13 things that are going to push stocks down over the next months.Reminder that we are only down 10% from ATHs and are leading into a recessional macro environment. I'm not buying at these prices, you'd have to be a short term trader or a retail buffoon to go LONG at this point in time.20% of my portfolio is invested in SPY, but I'm not buying at these levels, there's no point, zoom out on the chart, we barely entered a mild price correction which is not aligned with what we're seeing and feeling in the global market right now.
It's literally over tomorrow isn't it broshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruNrdmjcNTc&ab_channel=TobyKeithVEVO
i am so confused, is the stock market bullish now or what?
>>60224198>How much do you think it costs to make a pair of Nike shoes in Asia?and how tariffs affect supplies, parts and prices, too:https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1909741170953273353.html
REMINDER THAT A +9.52% SPX DAY IS A SIGN OF A BEAR MARKET, NOT A BULL MARKET! MAKE MONEY OFF YOUR CALLS, HEDGE, THEN GET OUT!
>>60224235bear, its going back down tomorrow, nobodies confidence is restored they remove all tariffs from a single country
>>60224235we will probably start to dump again as people realise that there's still a bunch of retarded tariffs applied last night the market was desperate for hopium and they got a hit, which explains the ridiculous spike
>made money and still fill like incan lose it at any time.Is gonna be one tweet
>>60224237What a retard. He should have known that 3d feet are pointless.
>>60224235Trump just delayed the market crash by 90 days. The yurip market will probably also get a 10% recovery tomorrow. The tariffs are still coming, and Europe has already approved their own. I'd say it's risky.
>>60224235probably back down, the market thinks Trump dropped like half the tariffs which isn't even true
>>60224232for us stupid bobocucks? yes
>>60224235there is no guarantees of movement until earnings are bad. that could be tomorrow that could be in 2 yearswelcome to stocks
As much as I was hit Thursday and Friday with my IRA, been steadily going back up switching to Cash this week while the other options still went down.Not saying I'm an expert trader, in fact I went to sleep during the US market today. Many of y'all just sit here bitching about Trump the entire time instead of making plays or even talking about them. Based on what some regular anons said, this thread was a ghost town until a week ago.
>>60224276this, the harder he goes on china the more we're fucked
Any earnings to play for the next 30 days?Thinking RDDT calls and PLTr puts to collect IV on the run up
>>60224290surely he capitulates sooner rather than later on China and we get another pump
>>60224288>Based on what some regular anons said, this thread was a ghost town until a week ago.Yeah you're right, then it got overrun with retarded tourists such as yourself
>>60224288It was a ghost town until he decide to throw the world economy out the window for delusional resons the market no shit people are more active.
As an euro, what do I even buy at the open? Do I even buy in the first place? I just don't know anymore. I've been mostly cash since 3 weeks, we still have a bit of bumps to do before we reach the point where my move was a bade one. But all-in-all, another crazy day like today and I'll be left out.How in the fuck is so much money moving in 3 minutes.
>>60224288There are no moves to make when the market is so volatile a Truth Social post can either make 9% green candle that blows up your shorts or a different tweet can send everything into a deep red slaughterhouse. Everyone smart (including these thread regulars) is sitting tight in cash or gold.It's a clown market for degens. They've literally turned the SPX into a shitcoin.
>>60224327idiot here. buy airbus. some anon here said something that should be obvious: tariffs means airbus will be the best option for airlines all over the world
Interesting.
>realize if I had, somehow, followed Trump's advice and put down 1000 dollars into calls for Nasdaq 17,000, I would have made 1 million dollars todayI'm reaching a point in my life where killing myself seems like a good solution to a lot of my problems. Not saying I will, but living in a society where you're either unemployed or fantastically lucky/rich is fucking awful.
>>60224300He's only keeping the tariffs to save face since he felt disrespected by China. Do you people even read the news? He even said he would make exceptions for certain US companies based on his feelings. A rollback is obviously happening. Trump apparently cares a lot about "respect".
>>60224345They've said that from the very beginning, it's not really interesting.
>>60224327earlier anons said the EU military stocks are a safe bet the reasoning is:>with US pulling out the EU needs to unlock spending on military companies to shore up supplies>there is still conflicts going on nearby to weaken resistance to this and this consumes suppliesthis means the EU countries will be spending money on military contracts like never before as they were reliant on the US until this year.
>>60224345theyve literally always said they wanna talk
>>60224349>He's only keeping the tariffs to save face since he felt disrespected by Chinalmao. imagine believeing this.go read this https://www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG/hudsonbay/research/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf and then google the name of the author.
>>60224352After the bond nagasaki of yesterday and Trump comments they will "try" to make a deal this time. I feel both country are at the "lets get this over already".
Got rekt chasing losses with TZA and TSLZ. Time to accept I'm a retard and stick with my boomer global index. I should have taken profits but I was greedy
>>60224260>Exchange currency for steel>Steel is orders of magnitude cheaper than it even costs your country to produce it much less sell it at a profit>Your own local steel production goes to zero>Millions lose their jobs>What was once one of the most prosperous regions is no hell on earthYeah maybe there's more to trade than just muh GDP, merchant friend.
>>60224352Trump finally agreed to respond this time though, before he was all like China can wait, maybe Navarro got kicked to the curb or something
>>60224372China has no reason to do anything but demand incredibly favourable conditions now that they know trump will fold if they dump bonds
is this real?
>>60224393Yes
gap @ spy $555
>>60224383american merchants shouldn't have sent factories to china in the first place, dumbo
>>60224380Literally same. Made 700 yesterday. Lost it today
>>60224385Someone definitely blamed Navarro for the bonds going sky highOnly news to come out about that retard is Musk calling him a retard
>>60224349Can't honestly say I saw much respects these last few days. The administration's comments against smaller countries, like Vietnam that even played nicely right away without retaliation, were trash-talked, if not insulted.
>>60224385That is more interesting.Maybe the worst is indeed over.
Is there any reason to believe Tesla sales will go up any time soon?
That was the dead cat bounce btw.Buy puts.
>>60224328yeah pulling out of US markets and longing europe/south america in the summer seems rational. I'm gonna put 10k on Rheinmetall when the volatility is down low, im guessing itll be summer. for now its silver indexes and euros. something to remember is that in recession even good companies have prices go down cause peopel are covering their ass in other places
>>60224414i am getting boeing puts
>>60224388Xi knows he is unstable he wont demand anything crazy imo. They will just back to status quo levels.The Jobs and manufactur dream not gonna happen but after yesterday meltdown i doubt he will ask that.I say they will leave the same way but with 20% tariff or some less ridiculous shit On both.
>>60224388this
>>60224420>Xi knows he is unstable he wont demand anything crazy imo.MUH MADMAN THEEEEORYit doesn't work if everyone knows you are full of shit, retard
>>60224420Xi knows he has leverage over little Donnie the folder
>>60224359So a bunch of big truth social people put calls for TQQQ, SQQQ, and SPY before Trump told everyone to buy on Truth social. Does that mean they are going to get dumped soon?
>>60224400You think I disagree? Now that we're in the present and not 60 years ago, let's focus on ways to undo that. And that involves fixing trade imbalance.
>>60224368>Just read thisWhy? there is no plan, hes making shit up as he goes, his dementia brain is holding the wheel here, not some obscure document
>>60224413If Trump looks desperate or says anything good about china tomorrow morning take it as a hint they will.
>>60224420Zero chance Trump backs off of trade and manufacturing. It's not feasible for American national security to have our entire manufacturing base in a country that actively tries to undermine us at every turn.
>>60224435But china doesn't buy Teslas because the domestic production cars are better?
>>60224433it involves creating and subsidising competitive industry lol.We unironically have a golden model for rapidly improving production with the Meiji Reforms, but Milton Friedman will be mad or something
>>60224434anon...1. reading that shit won't take you much time.2. I'm not defending the retards in charge by posting that, I'm just saying it's their plan.read it. their fucking plan is right there, written for you to understand and take advantage of.
>>60224440He'll back off as soon as the market tank again
>>60224446>subsidising competitive industryhmmmmmm
>>60224428Yeah but even with that he knows Trump can and would probably refuse if they ask for anything too dumb. And is on both countries interest to end this at the first chance they can when each oponent looks weak and this is that time.
>>60224440You cant shift domestic industry without a 2-3 year head start
>>60224430what military stocks? no, my statements have nothing to do with tariffs, and EU military is consumed in the EU, not the US.
>>60224385I am unsure of how much will be really gained from this. Trump cant just roll it back to the norm, or "new normal" I don't believe people will get behind him on that. He has to come back with something of real value and not lip-service toward "fighting for workers", and I am unsure if China would be willing to shell out that much and lose face paying tithes to uncle sam.An interesting conundrum. I wonder how it will play out?
>>60224446You can not out subsidize the already state subsidized and slave labor produced products coming out of China with zero safety or environmental overhead. It can't be done. The only way around is to not trade with them. They'll lie about any deal we try to form with them. The yellow Jew can't be trusted.
>>60224459it's called skilled work training programs and generous industrial loans across a wide range of markets
did the call with xi ever happen?
>>60224468What do you think this is retard? Its the start
Reminder that Tariffs only work if people genuinely believe they're here to stayFlipfloping like a retard give you the worst of both world, the manufacturing meme is dead for the next decade, better luck next time
>>60224474the longer the tariffs on china stay in place, the most businesses in America will close down
>>60224475i dont disagree. the US should have shut china out a long time ago for IP violations. But increasing costs of outside goods doesn’t make an internal industry more competitive.
Ayy I caught the knife!
>>60224477you dont need tariffs to do skilled work training programs or loansin fact if the industry was competitive they wouldnt need tariffs
Aaaand futures are red. That was a short squeeze and we resume a drop? Tariffs on china are still bad. 10% tariffs globally are still bad. Tariffs on mexico and canada are still bad.
>>60224494He already dropped most of them anyways. A 10% tariff is not enough to move manufacturing here when labor costs way more than 10% of every country on earth.
>>60224506market overdosed on cope, actual analysts say we've barely moved the needle backwards
Are we in for a pump or dump tomorrow? Honestly can't tell since the tariffs against China haven't gone anywhere
>futures crabbinglollmao
>>60224503thats literally my argument.making your neighbors drink poison doesnt make you healthier
here we go again!!!
>americans really believe tariffs will somehow make factories appear overnight or in a couple of years>they even think skill training takes months or some shit>even worse, they believe they don't need incentives from governments, even though there is a history of states giving incentives to factoriesone has to wonder if we are talking to bots or some shit
>>60224520>futures dump>green>futures pump>crabs>futures crab>redit's that simple
>>60224506Would have shorted it but I took on way too much risk and overextended myself yesterday. Gonna be a rough couple of months to claw back the gains I lost.
>>60224520Is gonna dump...not as big but a dump
>>60224524oh im retarded, i thought you were another guy arguing for tariffs
>>60224474Trump has undoubtedly given instructions to the other countries of the world not to do what they did during his first term and allow China to import to them, then they import to the US in order to dodge the tariffs, unless they want the tariffs back on them. >>60224495Sure Chang. Sure.
>>60224542>given instructionsWishful.
>>60224510>move manufacturing herewhat's crazy to me is his cabinet going on mini press tours touting this shite knowing full well he was going to reverse themalso Musk calling Navarro retarded, clearly he's on the outs now?
>>60224542>a 125% sales tax on American businesses is me caping for chinaWhere did you retards fucking come from
>>60224495I don't think that matters as much as fucking winnie the pooh into the dirt. And I don't think anything less will be accepted politically.
>>60224541dont worry. im retarded too for still falling for the tariffs are good bait 70 years after it's gone stale
a 2500 point move is going to have people selling for profit, its an instant win and we will likely see a lot of mass selling
>>60224562>what's crazy to me is his cabinet going on mini press tours touting this shite knowing full well he was going to reverse themThe past week theyve been shitting on Wall Street saying they dont give a fuckDonny has 1 bad night in stocks and bonds and immediately hits the reverse button
>>60224574yep, violent spikes are never sustainable in a bear market
>>60224557That's his biggest weakness, he won't tell other countries what he wants (because he wants them to come to him with possibly even better terms) and it throws markets into chaos until they figure it out.
>>60224562>what's crazy to me is his cabinet going on mini press tours touting this shite knowing full well he was going to reverse themThe decision to reverse them was a last minute thing. It wasn't the plan at all until after Japan dumped bonds and they got scared.
>>60224440> It's not feasible for American national security to have our entire manufacturing base in a country that we actively try to undermine at every turn.Fixed that for you.
>>60224198HEY LIBS WATCH THIS>Crashes entire support base in a week
>>60224562Im sure Trump doesnt talk about future plans h just wakes up and says "im doing this"
so excited for next turn tomorrow!!
>>60224563People just aren't going to buy that shit, do you even understand the point of a tariff? The only reason people buy a Chinese TV is because it's $300 when quality brands are $450. If the TCL costs $600 people aren't even going to give it a second thought.
>>60224542>don't worry daddy Trump would've told others countries not to do that or he'll flip flop on tariffs againkek>>60224581His biggest weakness is his 90 IQ
>>60224588I wonder how they explained it to him so his baby brain can understand why the Yield rising is horrible>Hey trump the bonds are going up>That's good right?>No all the banks are going to collapse and our national debt's interest is about to multiply into the sun
>>60224368>Many argue that tariffs are highly inflationary and can cause significant economic and market volatility, but that need not be the case.>Indeed, the 2018-2019 tariffs, a material increase in effective rates, passed with little discernible macroeconomic consequence.How are they supposed to know this? The outcome of those policies were nullified due to covid throwing everything into disarray. By late 2019 all signs were pointing to growing cracks in the economy getting worse to the point of near collapse in part due to the trade war and the extremely low interest rates at the time.
>>60224589You think I disagree? Which is why we shouldn't have out manufacturing in foreign countries.
someone tell me a ticker to buy for a 2x so I don't have to kill myself
>>60224605
>>60224592well thats easy to calculate out>18-29 year olds are mostly twerking tictoc users who trump just vaporized most of the chances of saving it, despite his attempts>30-44 year olds are millenial who are busy working and getting fired by job cuts, mildly worried about 401k>45-64 year olds are gen x and some boomers apprently not the smartest since their mood is holding, but they have the heaviest load in the market and 401k>65 and older are just waiting to die and don't want social programs to affect them
>>60224630is this game out yet?
>>60224628
>>60224636Remember gen x is Trump's best base
>>60224638Unironically 2 more weeks, the 23rd
if i buy an item that was 10 dollars last week from china, what will it cost tomorrow?
>>60224348I'm in the same boat. It feels like my life has reached the end stage, or actually did about five years ago. Nothing good or interesting will happen going forward, and eventually I'll die alone and no one will care. Like you... not planning to kms, btu I think about it throughout every day. Even if I did suddenly come into a huge windfall and could do whatever I wanted... I don't even really want anything anymore, just for it all to be over.
>>60224621I have no idea so I hope someone else is able to answer, but I find their plan interesting and useful to understand the current situation.apparently the plan seems to have failed, since they decided to pause tariffs
>>60224643I still can't get my head around this. I always thought it was the boomers. All the gen-xers I knew were always the most rational, but maybe it's because of the industry.
>>60224653i dont think anyone knows anymore
we're dumpingit's over
>>60224606Bro both the 300 and 450 tv come from china, so does your meds, electronics and anything made of steelUS import 440 billions from china, its not all in plastic toys lmao
>>60224665Gen x are the peak of the lead brain generation
>>60224588that pump tweet or whatever Monday I have a hard time not believing was a test to see how the markets react or a leak
>>60224368>>60224457>I just can't even>just read this 40 page document and you'll understandIf you read it yourself and understood it you could actually make an argument instead telling others to read it, you fucking retard. >lol imagine amirite?>just read this entire thing and you'll understand why I'm so flabbergastedcalling you a midwit would be a compliment
>>60224653depends on the item, according to https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1909741170953273353.html
>>60224368I had ChatGPT summarize it then look at recent newsit agreed that this document seemed to be what the admin is basing its policy on
>>60224653its easy math anon10 dollars + 12.5 dollars tariff. that is on the US side buying from china. Its just 125% of 10 which is 12.5.On the chinese side if they buy something US its ~ 84%? so 8.4 dollars.Remember the person that places the tariff collects it, it goes into a pool for the government to use.
>>60224669>it's overFor bobo
My gameplan tomorrow:Gap up = weekly putsFlat / gap down = do nothingI believe pump is fake and gay, what do you think bros
>>60224348If everyone did and the market rose he would have kept the tariffs and you'd be holding a colossal bag
>>60224679>make an argumentmy argument is that THEY HAVE A PLAN, and the plan is right there, you brainlet.why are you so mad?
>>60224684its not that easy because a lot of things can be sourced from other countries, or china could port to port to port their goods and its hard to know what will happen where and why. Things like machine parts might just get sourced from other countries. Who the frick knows. Probably not even the manufacturers themselves right now.
The biggest bull trap? The biggest dead cat bounce? Or is it up all the way to the end of time? The suspense is too clowny for me.
>>60224716Buy but buy carefully
>>60224716Freefall until we get good news with Xi
>>60224716>can memes pull the world economy up by the bootstraps literally forever or do profits matter
>>60224704There is no plan anonHe's always one disaster away from completely abandonning his principles
>>60224628nvda below 90
BLOOMBERG: TRUMP RUMORED TO BE REINCARNATION OF CHRIST ACCORDING TO TOP SCIENTISTS, GOLDEN BULL RUN BEGINS AT MARKET OPEN
SLURPPPPPies win againnothing else to see heremove along bobo
>>60224300we are gonna be two quarters into a recession by the time that retard realizes that retardo, moron, and nutlick do not know what they are doing.Too late by then.
>>60224664I'd say the plan is definitely useful to know, but I would keep in mind it seems a lot of it is operating under assumptions and false notions from the first term.It honestly wouldn't surprise me if this is intentional, and meant to milk as much money out of this as possible by misleading everyone, from the public to even the administration itself.You can still use this info to make decisions on how to act through bobo and bull rallies, thanks for sharing this anon.
>>60224738>golden bull>next christmajor apocalypse flags, buy crucifix calls
>>60224198>Bangladesh just lost transhipment with IndiaThis is getting better
Why are people so happy when the effective tariff rate after the pause is still above any time after the 1910s?
This week has taught me something important. Whatever would make sense isn't going to happen; the opposite will. Therefore, tomorrow morning I'm going long on Apple, Samsung, and Tesla, shorting Google, and dropping puts on Ford, Target, and Home Depot. I expect to be a multimillionaire by next year.
>>60224757Those penguins in Australia were sparred
>>60224738big if true
>>60224764They still have 10%. And their steel is still tariffed.
>>60224757the market is delusional, you could literally see how desperate it was for good news last night
>>60224446my man who do you think meiji japan took inspiration from when industrializing?hint: the guys who showed up with guns demanding they open up to trade
>>60224380same. yesterday was +45%, today -55%
>>60224757Trump caved after signaling for weeks that he had diamond hands and wasn't watching the markets. Trump put is still alive. I'm still bearish, but need to be a lot more cautious.
>futes turning red>nikkei sliding down from session high
>>60224773it was 100% the bonds being doomped that made him flinch
>>60224773He only cared about the bond market though. That clashed with one of his goals (lower rates).
>>60224757Its evidence that there is a limit to how stupid trump will be, and that there's a chance he backtracks further on tariffs in the future.
I guess crypto shitcoins aren't the only ones that pump from retarded tweets
>>60224778How are treasury yields looking ?
>>60224773the bond market made him shit himself because it killed all of his narrative about "MUH FLIGHT TO THE TREASURIES" while the market tanksThe fact he admitted today in front of everyone looking defeated as fuck it was the bonds was horrible for his plan
bull is just running from market to market right now, nikkei exploding, predicting DAX to be the next big 1 for tomorrowgold near ATH, oil going to 50/barrell. we're back. earnings season starts friday with big banks into big tech end of month. a lot still have room to get back to run 10-20% and still not be near ATH. might just be able to pull this off
>>60224779Yup. I figured he was going to cave, but not so soon. Tariffs literally just went in and I thought I was going to be safe for a bit because he didn't back off when the clock struck midnight.
>>60224757The market saw trump react and assume he'll repeal the remaining tariffs in "deal"Trump will ride this wave until another crash where he'll remove them and call it "the art of the deal"
>>60224778Yeah i'm glad I'm not holding anything overnight
>>60224198Been off today,so basically what happen today is that trump say that he is pausing tariffs for 90 days,30 fucking minutes before market open?GET ME OUT OF THIS MOTHERFUCKING COUNTRY
>>60224769it's easy to dominate with an advantage, but hard to recover from a late start. unironically a good model for 1st world countries for manufacturing right now is how the former victims of colonialism and forced open markets bolstered their own economic strength in the late 19th-20th centuries. protectionism didnt work then for the Qing, didnt work for Japan, etc. Instead you have to rapidly lean into modernizing your production venues and admit something is wrong and can be learned from foreigners.
>>60224778>2pm tomorrow>WAIT WAIT WAIT WHY IS IT +10%
>>60224795recovering for now
>>60224786I think he'll keep them as high as he can without increasing yields. So China could get him to cut them more by dumping all their treasuries.
>>60224420Migatards wont be satisfied until Chyna gets a good fucking. Winnie the poo wont let that happen. Jobs are not coming back, and we are going into a recession. Because some lazy retard in the midwest couldnt cut it and find a job where he couldnt drink all day and voted for new york billionare to bring back sweatshops.
>>60224816the best you'll get is like +1% tomorrow mumu
>>60224823I agree, but the market is coping imo.
>>60224808He said it like 2 hours after market open to let all his mates cash in
>>60224778you overplayed your hand bobo
>>60224823He definitely sounded a lot more dovish on China today. Realized that Xi has real leverage on him.
trumpfs unironically almost ended usaand he can still do it
>>60224757>Pause means... pause means REVERSAL!!!11Bulls go beyond just "forward looking." They try to imagine things that are not said
>>60224834It was 8.6% earlier
>>60224433Or you know , you could do what every country doesincentivize local production, fuck the chinese at their own game , Overbuild energy capacity and subsidize steel production, but the trump way is the least efficacious, most retarded, and really the only way that we could potentially default on our interest payments.
>>60224834less than what US averages saw td and it'll be prob slide down to like 5% by close
10Q Lum. :D
>>60224611why is US10y being 4.5% so bad?they were higher in january
>>60224833So we are now going to treat the us economy as a shitcoin that dump and bump because an old man forgot to take his medicine?god fucking danmit
>>60224828I’ve heard enough from cocky bobos, you lost and it ain’t coming back
>>60224860when you elect clowns you get a circus
>>60224865I mean the only thing that will cause stocks to fall tomorrow will be a negative CPI report.
>>60224857They usually go down when the economy is tanking. Bonds are what people move their money into when they are scared, they move them out when they are bullish and want better returns.
>>60224857the yield going high with the markets going low is literal financial ruin
>>60224819I really need them shits to tank
I will guess 20% down tomorrow.
>>602248535% is still a massive 1-day move for any index. pre-tariffs large moves were considered 3-4% max in a session and now overnight an entire index can move anywhere from 6-13% intradaywild
I am loath to give him credit, but one must admit that declaring war on the entire world simultaneously is, in its own way, "kino"...
>>60224664>the plan seems to have failed, since they decided to pause tariffsthe plan outlines a 10% global tariff with 65% on Chinathat's what's in effect now, except the china tariff is double
When you mock Maga just know this is who you're hurting on the other side of the screen.
>>60224235very slight downward crab for the next 90 days if nothing else happens
Tanked a 50% drop on UPRO over the past few months. Haven't budged, haven't sold a cent. DCA'd all my dry powder in the 80-70 range, had nothing left when it went sub 50.this is a fucking rollercoaster and i wouldn't have it any other way.
>>60224602dude I fucking love this game
The other thing people are forgetting is that it'll be two months before anybody even PAYS any of the China tariffs (outside of dropshippers but fuck them they don't really matter) because it only takes effect on container ships that left ports 4/9 or later. Anything already on the way is still tariff free.Trump will get some minor concession from Xi, declare victory, and pull the tariffs before they ever cost a non Temu non Aliexpress company a dime.
>>60224654>I'm in the same boat. It feels like my life has reached the end stage, or actually did about five years ago.Yeah. In 2019 I was like "things will work out" and then covid happened. At the time I thought of stocks/crypto/whatever as a get rich quick thing, not an essential. But the economy has been so fucking bad since then, I've realized specifically if I had been more experienced I could have made enough money to be rich, but it seems like it was actually a requirement merely to live, not an extra thing to make your life better.
>>60224880>>60224857>>60224823Yup the yield thing got me spooked.I'm sitting tight on gold ETFs. And own physical gold as well.Rest is in cash.Not the most interesting trade in the world.But I am gonna make money.It's a surefire bet that Chyna will dump treasuries again at some point and that's bullish for gold.
>>60224912lol, Xi will be getting some fat concessions out of donnie
>>60224912Goods already on transit are fucked
>>60224912Doubtful. Though him suspending all tariffs except China just means China will move their exports through Cambodia/Vietnam/Thailand/etc.
>>60224912I mean that is win for us.Manufacturing and Jobs aint coming back tough.
>>60224912dawg we process 1 billion of chinese goods in our ports DAILY. A single day of trying to actually collect these tariffs will have a major ripple.
>>60224928No, goods already in transit are explicitly exempt. It only applies to goods that leave port after the tariff went into effect.
>down 27%>vomiting and projectile diarrhea for 5 hours straighti'm sorry president trump i will trust the plan next timethank you vice president vancegod dry heaving hurts
>>60224927I think expecting either side to give concessions first is naive. Nobody is blinking. our only way out is a deal that lets both sides claim victory
touching grass?in this economy?
>>60224936Ok then yeah China has time
>>60224917>But the economy has been so fucking bad since thenwe added like 300,000 jobs last month, the market has practically doubled in 5 years when the rule of 72 says it should take ~12 years to do so
>>60224939were you already sick or did the loss drive you nuts? Cause I went down 97% and I just drove home, fucked my wife, and started eating chips
>>60224925I dunno, I really thought Donnie was going to be tougher than that. He might just cuck out on some weak concession and bow out. His supporters would eat it up regardless. Either way, the future looks very Chinese.
>>60224953yeah there's been some shit spreading. think it might be norovirus
spy futures already falling like a rock lmao
Long-term is at least a mild to medium recession in a few months softened by stimulus and other government measures. Short to medium-term will be pump and dumps to take boomer retirement funds and zoomer life savings. If you arent part of Trump and Friends co. it’s a literal toss coin on what happens next. Go back to basics - don’t play what you can’t afford to lose. If you need that money this or next month don’t play at all.
>>60224961My buddy down in Houston just got it. Hope you get better soon, anon.
>>60224957All his supporters are going "Art of the Deal" over and over even though he suspended the tariffs without getting anything in return.
Lmao, has trump trained the marked to buy whenever he says "NOW IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!"?
>>60224982it's pointless to think it won't gigapump tomorrow
>everyone talking about tariffs>nobody talking about how market prices in 2 rate cuts that literally have been canceled now, and 100% of the last year’s pump is just them automatically assuming rates would be cut any day now Enjoy your pump, Mumu. Wait for tomorrow and Friday with CIP and unemployment. Realistically we’ll have 2-3 more of these before the final fall.>t. Still holding my puts from the 7% jump Monday through a 50% loss
>>60224957At least part of the reason for doing this is to drop the yields on treasurys. The US has to refinance like $10T in the next year because of yellen and even a few bepis is billions of dollars saved. If Japs or Chinamen or whoever start selling off it will cause the yields to spike. I'm not sure how they didn't plan for this.
>>60224991I'm still holding my obliterated puts I bought on Friday lol
>>60224957Even assuming you are correct, it's not gonna get resolved overnight. We've got 90 days of fear and loathing ahead. Burger farmers gonna start to bleed which means bailouts which means printing. Which again is you guessed it bullish for goldbugs.I'm not gonna get rich from this, but it's a safe way to sit it out and make some gains. At least until I see some opportunity that is really tempting to slurp.Not gonna try to catch any falling knives or get liquidated by a Truth Social post.
>>60224986The dollar not crashing was the return.The Best decision he has made even if the reason was self inflicted
>>60224898Dear Israel please iron dome this auditorium thank you
maybe the progressive side of this country should have formed a broad coalition with a coherent, unified message and a strong leader instead of furiously orbiting the opposition.just sayin
>>60224986They flipped on main street > wall street pretty quickly too. Nobody is talking about manufacturing now.
>>60224941trump already blinked
Gap up tomorrow gap down is obvious
>>60225002they unironically just needed to field a man taller and younger than trump
>>60225005>nobody talking about Jobs or manufacturingLiterally the biggest cue he will give ornaccept shitty concetions on his "deals" and call it a day.
The mass selling of bonds 100% convinced someone in Trump's admin to delay the tariffs
>>60225002Democrat brainwashing is too strong. I had normie peers who hated Biden and Kamala's obvious chicanery and still voter for her and blamed me for not voting when Trump won lol.
>>60224996>I'm not sure how they didn't plan for this.Because their plan is literally a fucking fantasyYou dont tank the market on purpose, then tell people to run to the fucking bond market, the crossover is not there. Also tanking the NYSE also literally tanks the entire world, the NYSE IS part of the global economyTheir bet was all of a sudden every whale was gonna start buying T-bills, it's a literal 0% chance bet
I don't think this admin is even competent enough to collect the tariffs they're trying to implementespecially when they're also trying to gut the IRS
screw catching a falling knife this is catching a ripsaw
>>60225020As a democrat there is no one in the party who can step up. We are toast. I doubt they throw out AOC, but she is probably the best candidate from the party and she would lose the general election by a landslide even if it's vs Vance.
>>60224957japan selling bonds made him cuck
>>60225041AOC is a MMT loon, the other side of the populist coin.
>>60225002He didnt tank the economy this hard in his first term.
>>60225008post call options or stfu
>>60225020deeper than that, Newsom checks those boxes and would have lost, they need someone who will crowd him out of the headlines, give them some breathing room, grab the spotlight, whatever you want to call it.the problem is that progressives essentially won. NAFTA and other free trade agreements succeeded, NATO and other unions with progressive democractic nations succeeded, gay marriage got legalized, horomone therapy got popular, statues of theodore roosevelt and thomas jefferson were toppled, affirmative action, abortion, etc etc etc were all approved, there's just no envelope left for progressives to push
>>60224458The real paper hands.>>60224475>Literally spend a trillion dollars on defense each year >Cant subsidize industrial base for reasonsWhy not anon, last i checked we are building new fabs here, why cant we create excess steel for national security reasons.>>60224501S&P500 looked the other way when those juicy Chinese markets started opening up to foreign firms.
>>60225051That's because people would literally take things off his desk and physically stop him from signing executive orders.
>>60225051?i'm just reading through the thread and there are clearly a lot of rational intellectual progressives here who understand free trade better than the current administration. But they're careening towards the same mistake they've made three times now.
>>60225041Not to be that type of guy but imagine where we'd be if they didn't ratfuck Bernie the second before super tuesday and assemble a voltron around Biden. That last dem debate was fucking painful. Even if you hate Bernie you have to admit he's not a blathering senile git like Biden, so it was just watching a crotchety old jew getting yelled at by an angry vietnam vet who just got back from applebee's happy hour
It's funny how Trump objectively got scared and cucked once he saw the treasury yields, but managed to spin it in such a way that I half-believed this morning that he had done a galaxy brain Art of the Deal. Alas, I am only human after all.
>>60225067Well i think most expected the same to happen
>>60225032All the dems that sold their positions will fomo tomorrow it’s obvious. 5700 then dump
>>60225051He had tard wranglers. I read the Bolton book when it came out, back then I thought it was exaggerated propaganda, just Bolton self-aggrandizing his role in tardwrangling Trump and trying to distance himself from his admin, but the last weeks have vindictated that book. He describes the same shit a lot of later books have also described, officials hiding shit from Trump, and trying to distract him from implementing stupid ideas on a whim. It seems he really is like that.
>>60224368Trump backed off. Plan aborted. He's going to work out a face-saving deal with Xi and do his whole "well aren't we all a bunch of smart, powerful men" circlejerk routine he does with dictators>>60224898> painting depicts Jesus being crucified while Trump watches from a distanceWhat did she mean by this?
>>60225041Mark Kelly is my pick. His only downsides are that they say he's not much of a speaker and that he's anti-gun, but nobody actually listens anyways and he just needs to tone down the gun rhetoric. Voters may forgive him for it anyways since his wife was shot in the head. Most importantly, he's a straight white dude and a fucking astronaut.
>>60224198I'm rich
>>60225057well Newsom's already throwing trannys under the bus, if he walks back on some more progressive policies and Cali economy becomes better the next few years he might have a shot for a pres run, but idk if he's actually competent enough to do all that
>>60225071they will always retroactively rewrite every single one of his fuckups into an epic galaxybrain move
Can we even blame the migatards for this?When you vote for a "tariff" guy I dont believe people assumed he'd blanket tariffs the whole planet at giant rates
>>60224984god i hope so, can't even keep water down. thanks anon. lets pray that our portfolios get better too lol
>>60225083i kneel
>>60225071He literally got exactly what he wanted with 10% tariffs which is basically a federal sales tax so now they can afford income tax cuts. Plus China is still dicked.
>>60225041We're running a center-right white guyWhether that white guy is Newson, Pete Butt, or the guy from Kentucky, the next democrat nom is a white man
>>60224997I feel for you. It was really hard not to close all of them yesterday afternoon after THAT scam pump failed. My intuition was telling me to hedge with a few cheap OTM calls just in case. I got greedy, but I still think everything points to this euphoria being a bear signal. The last time market pumped this big were ALL economic crises, and we are another 15-20% or more of losses way from being close to any one of them.Again, the pump from 2024 and early 2025 was literally 100% “muh rate cuts, any day now!” Markets were already starting to show stagnation and AI euphoria wearing thin. Market can’t meme pump on hopium forever, and companies that were bankrupt or struggling 3 years ago are trading at 100+ P/E STILL (cruise stocks and Carvana are gonna die)
>>60225086you can blame them for the blind unceasing devotion still going on right now
>>60225094we added 300,000 jobs last month and inflation is at 3, nigga, there's no economic crisis just saber rattling
>>60225091God I hope they don't run buttigeig, a fag is the last dei hire they need running right now.
henlo mister jeromeit's time for you to helpplease fix this
>>60225108Buttigieg is intelligent and articulate so he'd never win
>>60225028It was Bessent guaranteed Bessent saw that and panicked he knew what that meant people weren't investing in America but we're crashing it
>>60225101There is a lag between economic policy and its consequences, this whole tariff turmoil wall street shit will be felt by the average person 3-6 months from now.Even if there was no tariff shit and everything was swell there was a bear case to be made based on overvaluation and P/E ratios.
>>602251012008 crash took 17 months to bottom
>>60225101a significant amount of those people got furloughed because of the tariffs
>>60225101Source for the 3 figure? Also you’re retaded because “adding jobs” doesn’t mean unemployment is lower. It crept up like 0.1%. Not bad, sure, but let’s say it even goes up 0.1% higher than forecast, it’ll be circuit breakers. I might still get BTFO, but I don’t know any sane individual who can make a sound bull case. If you’re a ballsy motherfucker who’s gonna trade straddles or something, then more power to you, but going long right now is just the dumbest play.
>>60225137keep moving that goal post faggot
When did /smg/ become trump seethe general? Can you newfags fuck off
>>60225150When he sent the market into turmoil.
>>60225137>Source for the 3 figurelast CPI, no?>>60225132he'll back down on tariffs. there are always overvalued companies>>60225134and if you were alive for it you'd know that in March 2009, the oracle of omaha announced that the stock market had fallen off a cliff and there was no hope left.
>>60225150>trump does retarded shit that fucks with the market>gets mad the stock market general has a problem with that because he obediently worships trump
>>60224893>the plan outlines a 10% global tariff with 65% on Chinathe plan also said 2% monthly raise. they did all in under a couple of weeks
>>60225101The consequences of this shitshow+the remaining tariffs will be felt for yearsNo use saying everything is fine when the bill has yet to come
>>60225150We'll stop talking about him when he stops rugpulling the fucking market
>>60225153You'll have to be more specific. As a young person I hate volatility
>>60225150real answer is that the conservatives moved to /bant/ and never returned. that's also why there are no more memes, just poolitical discussion
>>60225120sad but truedont want a politician smarter than the donors
>>60225150when he started to treat the usa markets like a shitcoin
>>60225120He's gay Anon and he has enough failures under Biden to hold over his head
>>60225164Sad. I saw baggot, fathands, and scoops there, must be the real one
>>60225154>he'll back down on tariffs.Maybe. Today's events prove that some sanity can prevail. I wouldn't bet the farm on it.>there are always overvalued companiesStill looking at a 50% chance of global recession based on the remaining tariffs and market turmoil.
>>60225137>>60225101Also you’re going by lagging data. Inflation was still above Fed target two fucking months ago BEFORE tariffs.Again, like other anon said this won’t be instant. But by June/July (after more panic sells and pumps) we will hit new lows. Look at any analyst who’s slashed price targets (they never admit that stonks don’t only go up, just revise them lower) and they’ll all agree we can hit a new bottom and probably will before recovery.My puts are dated to late June and December. I’ll get the last laugh.
>>60225150>King nigger fuck with the stock market in unprecedented ways>Huuuh pls be nice to donaldo smgFuck off
>>60225155>>60225161>>60225161>>60225153I hate volatility!
>>60225180It's fine if it's shit like earnings, not tweets.
>>60225150>discussing policy is seethingback to /ptg/ with you.>>60225164people moved to /bant/ because of admin fuckery, /biz/smg only came back because of a canadian backer wrecking the general and the current trump drama. the /pol/shills are annoying though, but i don't miss the namefags.
regardless of the future reports, the fact that literally every single investor is getting less aggressive proves that the bear market is in.
>>60225150>Fuck with the stoonks>Have followers yap about 4d chess and reindustrializing>Have retarded messagingGee I wonder why this happened anon so many things to like about this Presidency
/smg/ oldgod here. Nuffim I love more than a boring crab market
>>60225186>bear market is inWell yeah everyone is going to be more careful Geine is out of the bottle stability helps the market
>>60225174>>60225176so I was right and this is all fallout from saber rattling, we just disagree on how severe the fallout would be.don't pretend you have some thesis on systemic rot
>>60225188You forgot a part>do stupid shit that causes market to slip>freak out about bonds>tell your friends that you are going to do a 90 day pause before you announce it to the public>Trump & co get rich manipulating the market>everyone else gets washed
>>60225201>fallout from saber rattlingThat can cause a recession if not stabilized remember that
>>60225206Yes that as well
>>60225206>>everyone else gets washedyeah except the individual investors who collectively poured in tens of billions during the dip according to WSJ and Morningstar, both of whom were crowing over retail stupidity before the pump today.
So what is the new talking point about how this was a Trump master plan?
>>60225201I’m not trying to make some political or grandiose statement about the system. I’m telling you that investors have retardedly short memories. Nobody seems to remember WHY we pumped (AI and Fed being dovish *eventually*). If things weren’t such a huge rip upwards I would be shook as a bear and probably exit my positions at a massive loss. But I’m not, because we just ensured that we have a new bottom to hit.
>>60225208>panic induced recessionthen they'll cut rates
>>60225150/biz/ has been perma bobo since the pandemic. The "big one" has been coming in the next two weeks for the past four and half years. Those same Bobo's just got fucking liquidated. A literal generational event. They're going to lash out and shit fling everywhere in the meantime. You know, crying in the casino.
>>60225199yea. fear is outpacing fomo. the general movement of prices is obvious
>>60225206>>60225188The Great Irony
>>60225220I got over my FOMO phase when I missed on Shiba Inu and bought the top. Yeah sometimes retards will make a lot of money. Doesn't mean emulating them is smart. If you missed it, you missed it.
>>60225231HA
>>60224198Ok, so Trump walked back slightly. But some tariffs are still on (10% + China). So how will that affect the economy?
>>60225249It's still fuckedconsumer goods are fucked even more than before
>>60224032Buying which calls?
>>60225231You have a ten percent Tariffs and a possible Iran war which I'm 60 percent sure will happen plus today's chaos likely caused market chaos
>>60225234Markets have been overvalued since the pandemic. It should have crashed when the fed raised rates but they kicked the can with fiscal spending. We're about due for crash now.
>>60225243I'm not taunting people for not buying the dip, I didn't slurp either only because I had no cash.It's just embarassing to see people spin a narrative about "he's killing the little man!!" at every single turn, just sticking their heads in the sand
>>60225234Where the fuck have you been? We literally had 2 “big ones” in the last 3 years, and bears made a killing if they timed it right. This is the 3rd big one. Keep in mind we’re still well below the ATH. Like it already happened, there’s just a dead cat bounce that was bigger than expected do to Trump being a political troll.
>>60225262Two more weeks for sure.
>>60225220Because retain investors are notorious for getting it right every time.
>>60225269You are right that he did tell his supporters to buy. And they bought. And they made pretty fucking good gains.Doesn't mean the whole thing isn't retarded, but he did dab on all the nonbelievers today that much is true.
>>60225274MIGAs want to pretend everything is fine now and the day has been saved
>>60225249It's not gonna be good. Most likely, everything will still continue its downward trajectory, though we may not see it until the earnings season after this coming one. It sure as fuck won't be smooth either. Expect a lot of volatility. I'm not planning to hold any positions for long, just going to look for the slightest signs of momentum in either direction, buy some leveraged shit, and set tight stop losses
>>60225242>build this robot factory blue collar joe>thanks now we can manufacture in america again>what? you want a job in the factory>it's a factory full of robots. no humans allowed. thanks for building it though. also no unemployment you lazy piece of shit
>>60225261>possible Iran warthe ayatollah is 85 years old and has no successor and the IRGC is so fucking infiltrated with spies that somehow a bomb was planted in the hotel room of the political leader of Hamas in the fucking heart of Tehran.the US can unironically just do nothing and win vis a vis Iran, there will be no war.The last time Iran got into a hot war they completely shit their pants and started sending child soldiers in to clear minefields when their opponent was Iraq, an even more incompetent shithole.I'm sick of this place, do some research and stop believing headlines.
>>60225249US is still fuckedExpect a slow bleedout instead of a crash
>>60225294True bro. You should short the market with massive leverage. Show the orange man who's boss. After all, it's a shoe-in.
>>60225301Two more weeks!
>>60225289self-awareness check>>60225291the morningstar article reported the highest retail inflows in over a decade on April 4th, 5 days before his epic insider trading moment this morning.
>>60225299Nobody is saying iran would win, people are just complaining that we are basically obeying Bibi and invading Iran on behalf of Israel. Just like how Trump declared we will take over Gaza on behalf of Israel and rebuild it on behalf of Israel.
>>60224198Good news >After using Yemen as a testing ground for bunker busting bombs intended to be used on Iran, the U.S. military is reportedly 'doubtful' and 'unconvinced' that it could pull off a successful military strike on Iran's nuclear facilitiesTrump literally can't bomb Iran
gotta wait for market effects to hit the upper middle class for prices to make major moves in the vibes economypeople only really have to sell when they NEED money.dont fuck yourself on trying to predict the week it happens. past couple years have been good but you can literally ruin yourself in a day on calling the shot when money is tightest.
>>60225315More like 4 more years amirite
>>60225299>He doesn't knowAll the Iranians need to do is hit the ME's oil supplies your bunker busters can't pen the houthi bunkers
WE LIVE IN A WHEELWHERE EVERYONE STEALSBUT WHEN WE RISEIT'S LIKE STRAWBERRY FIELDShttps://youtu.be/hOllF3TgAsM
>>60225321cool fantasy but none of that will ever happen, the Gazan population has doubled in the past 25 years and has already outgrown all the deaths they suffered in the war.American boots will never enter Gaza>>60225338>Iranians bombing Arab countries' oilare you fucking insane, they would be instantly gangbanged by China and Russia, forget about the US
New thread>>60225353>>60225353>>60225353
>>60225359>RussiaFor Russia this is the deal of the century demand destruction of all it's competitors this will only strengthen their postion as oil exporter
>>60225195This is a kangaroo market
>>60225048is there any proof it was japan?
>>60225065Our defense spending protects global trade. A reason the deal needs to be reworked.
>>60224198That's not in the manga.
