I’ll betting the broncos in NRL in 30 minutes, great value imo they will cover the spread easily too

It's my [48 y.o] uncle's birthday tomorrow and he's gonna receive a 100 RON free bet from superbet, a bookie we used last summer to abuse their signing bonus, when we made 1500 in slots which we split in half, and never deposited since.
I prepared the games:
>Juventus @1.25 v Pisa
>Bilbao v Barca @1.65
>Orenburg v Zenit @1.50
>Bologna @1.58 v Verona
>Rubin Kazan v Krasnodar @1.87
>Qarabag @1.32 v Araz

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>>153746474
How has 2026 treated you so far, /bet/?

>>153749222
LeMickey fucked me over last night, that fucking bitch.

UFC bets?

>>153749222
10X my initial bet fund.

Monaco chads lock in

womens downhill skiing, val di fassa event 2, matchups

cornelia huetter @ 2.01 * 169.82 (pinnacle maximum bet) to win 341.34
kajsa vickhoff lie @ 2.2 * 155.15 (on bet365) to win 341.34

169.82 + 155.15 = 324.97 to win 341.34 ($16.37) about a 5.1% return. event starts in about 12 hours. there are a couple arbs too, but this is the only line where the books have a different favorite.

Anyone else got problems with Bet365 with settled won bets rn?

>>153748357
While those were the games that passed the filters, the weekend has other games ahead. Some 1 unit bets

>Michalovce v Slovan Bratislava @1.67
Confidence: LOW
If i'd knew more about the host team the confidence would probably move to MED, but not more than med for being away. The reigning champions of the past 6 years have to defend their 1st place, and their lineup looks alright as a matter of fact. Goalkepper alright, in defence i see they got as CB Svetozar Markovic, who was Partizan's captain, the other CB is Kashia, Georgia's NT captain. In midfield and attack the son's coach Vladimir Weiss Jr, a skilled #7 , can take penalties and free kicks all day, might play a role as a joker from the bench, and i see other good aditions like the shirt with #10 is a croatian from Rijeka, in attack Sporar from Panathinaikos. Two ukrainians here, one in midfield, one in attack, couple black guys on the flanks, Barshegyan, who's a winger like politano, or that guy Marcelli worth 4.8 mil.
Not trying to bore anybody with a long analysis, and to be honest i haven't even watched them this year. But i know Michalovce was not a team that usually reached the playoff (first 6), they did this year, Slovan usually won their away games here, and a deciding factor might be, usually seen in our league, when a lower ranked team reaches the playoff they feel that their job for the season is done, they have no other ambitions, and just lose games. Slovan aiming the title, etc. Away win level of confidence 6.5/10

>Groningen v Ajax @2.37
Last Ajax game at Zwolle was probably THE single most sickening game i've seen in my life. And you can check the stats, literally nothing happened. But as we say in our country, winter isn't like summer, and so no game is like the other. Ajax could've won that game cause they tried, and even got denied a penalty from an incompetent ref. And i'm not saying this by making it up. He got called in 44th min from the VAR room, basically telling him "you blind cuck, there was a handball in the box" and he still refused to give it. When i saw he goes to check for VAR i was certain that's a penalty and went to take a piss. When i came back, the chat has errupted into people yelling "theft". The whole chat was screaming that we got robbed. And the ref had that soulless blonde dutch face like dani makkelie. Ptttu. Spit on their grave. Ajax could've won. Berghuis is back with the squad. That mellow choker with the hair transplant, Klaassen, dissapointed again. Weghorst, inexistent again.
Groningen, apart from being on a 6 game losing streak, also misses 3 starters. Ajax misses "Regeer" , which is ... GOOD NEWS. The dead wood in midfield. You know what? Fuck the Groningen's of the world. Backing away win in this one.
Confidence level: LOW

If i continue like this i'm never gonna finish. Also apologies for the walls of text

then two games to keep an eye on, maybe for a live hit on the needed goal. (0-0 min 65...??)

>Pafos v Krasava
>AEK v AEL Larissa
If it isn't obvious enough, i'm implying Pafos (1.38) and AEK (1.23) win their games

Confidence: LOW

>Atalanta @1.73 v Udinese
Maybe unpredictable and unreliable Scatalanta, and even more so that Udinese is a solid, physical Serie A team. But "Dea" is on a 5 game winning streak at home, a ground where they eliminated Dirtmund last week. So spirits should be high. With the Scat it's always either 4-0 or 0-0, so yeah... confidence actually LOW here

>Besiktas v Galatasaray @2.42
Tought obviously, confidence LOW, but Galata will be champions cause they carry that aura some teams have they can do no wrong, and that's because of Osimhen. Besiktas doesn't look bad either, i dunno i just feel it's away win here

>>153755271
>i dunno i just feel it's away win here
And i wanna touch a subject here. You write this line in any editorial in the world and they show you the door in the next second. "I feel that... " . The fuck man? What do you want me to regurgitate stats? I'm betting on feelings, i'm betting on HUNCH®

>Borac Banja Luka @1.25 v Siroki Brijeg
again, maybe a spot for live bets

>Koln v Dortmund @1.85
Out of CL and out of the title race in one week. They weren't actually in the title race, obviously, but imo they weren't bad before that Atalanta game. That was atrocious, and even then, they could've scored at 2-0 . Imo Guirassy is a fucking liability. Unless you bring the ball to him he's useless and they can have a build up play with him on the pitch. But might score here who knows. They have good players, like Adeyemyi in attack, i feel can make the difference, or Schlotterback in defence. Ryerson is back from suspension, which is in an important part of their team. Koln is not in good form either, i wouldn't blame anybody for taking away win in this one, confidence however LOW low low low

>Pathetico @1.67 v Real Sociedad
LOW , but good record at home. Low cause they might be rotating after the cup game. On the other side, it's atletico at home, and they did qualify against barca, even if i heard they didn't show up, and against Oviedo they won at the last minute. Tough to be honest at this moment. Not a walk in the park, not a bet that i would put on my uncle's birthday acca to put it in other terms.

>Wrexham v Chelsea to qf @1.20
Rotation, rotation. Confidence ... low. Cause odds are crap and not worth it but they probably advance against ryan reynolds. Or ryan reynolds pulls the meme upset? A game Chelsea doesn't care about, while they make it the most biggest win in club's history? Conclusion: avoid

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>Braga v Sporting @2.12
A similar hunch to galatasaray. Confidence is again... Low.. cause Braga is a tough ground, and they've also been having good results lately. I give the edge to Sporting here, which isn't a surprise, it's the fact that it's away and i have them to get all the 3 points for their title race with Porco. I dunno, Braga might be having ok results, but Sporting looks real good at the moment. And if Porto doesn't beat Benfica, which normally would be expected a tie, they close the now 4 pts gap.

>>153750631
Can't give

i will be trying a new system for finding positive closing line value by comparing bet365, pinnacle, and circa lines pretty much as soon as the lines are open, ill try with this game here and see if the line has moved in 12ish hours before the game is about to start tomorrow. i will potentially be cashing these bets out before the game starts if the line hasnt really moved.

ncaab
cincinnati vs tcu
under 136.5 @ 2.50 on bet365, most other books have this line around 2.10-2.20.

>FCSB v U Cluj
FCSB thought U Cluj will drop points and they will have this game where they will beat them and overtake them. Instead, visitors already qualified for playoff and look in the best form in years. For FCSB Olaru is injured, a key player, probably the most important. So the points matter, but not that much cause they will be divided in half when they go to playoff (another retarded rule) so with FCSB in this state, it feels like this game will have goals. 3 to be precise. Over 2.5 is @1.92 but i even believe U cluj will win 1-3. Like psg monaco today. FCSB will try, U cluj will score, and score and celebrate in their face. FCSB will also get one back. That's how i read it

>Al Nassr @1.29 v Neom
Normally Ronaldo shouldn't drop points here, but you never know with these camel fuckers. That's why confidence is low. Also the war ...

>PSV v Alkmaar
4+ @1.87
confidence : MED
for overs you can't give confidence high, cause myself, i'm like that girl in the western that has to shoot the pistol, and closes her eyes and hopes for the best.
Could be even 5+, could be even 6 7 when it's PSV and ALKMAAR .
So that's the certified over of the day, right here.

>Widzew Lodz v Lech Poznan @2.42
Confidence LOW cause it doesn't seem like a ground they usually win on, but Lech Poznan is up there for the title, hosta battling relegation. With these games, you can always take "team leads anytime" , double chance, team scores, dnb

>Juventus @1.25 v Pisa
Pisa never even travelled here, and they're not doing well. Seems like a safe bet on Jj

>Ath. Bilbao v Barcelona @1.72
Maybe used to be tricky with Bilbao, but they've been such a toothless team this season it's hard not to imagine Barca with Lamal and Raphinha and Lewandowski, Olmo and Pedri in midfield won't outplay them. Defence is their problem, sure. Speaking of defence, Joao Cancelo, this goated fullback/wingback is here now. Should be a fantastic addition. So might be even 1-4 here desu.

Both these games confidence medium-high

>Toulouse v Marseille @2.27
I watched the last minutes of Marseille beating Lyon in their derby, and even watched after the game when the players were on the pitch. And it gave the vibes that they're very united. With Balerdi and Aubameyang, Hojbjerg, Paixao etc. And what it meant for them that win. And i thought Marseille will win their next game. Well, the next one was with Toulouse, in the cup. Which they lost. Now they play Toulouse away. I think they'll win now, with players like Greenwood in their squad. We'll see, but i say away win, confidence low again

>DC United v Inter Miami @1.70
For inter miami i usually do overs. These DC united look kinda bad , will see either 4+ or away win or avoid. Will probably get a better read close to the kickoff, it's also an early game i believe. But yeah, with the shape Inter Miami are in at the moment, it's probably safe to say away win

From Mexico i liked 2 games

>Cruz Azul @1.50 v Atl. San Luis
>Queretaro v Club America @1.98

And very briefly for those making to Sunday i wanna go through the most promising games

>Orenburg v Zenit @1.50
NPCs should be an osbtacle

>Bologna @1.57 v Verona
Bologna on a 5 game winning streak, Verona on the opposite side of the spectrum, losing streal for ... 10 games or sth, Bologna with a better squad and at home

>Kazan v Krasnodar @1.87
Krasnodar have a good team and won the title last season. They usually win this away fixture as well, and they are just better than Rubin Kazan, straight up. And no injuries. They have two brazilian CBs, a good uruguayan as left back , one black colombian as #9 who usually scores, and their captain as #10 the armenian Spertsyan.

>Qarabag @1.31 v Araz
Nothing else to play off but the league, where they have to catch up on first place, and no missing players. So that good squad that had results in europe, all available. No excuse not to get the win here. I think 3-0

All these confidence medium.

>Crvena Zvezda v Napredak
Over 4.5 @1.95
Odds maybe not worth but they probably beat the last place 7-0. As a potential over. Also nothing else to play off, so could be an over here

>Vukovar v Rijeka @2.05
Last place vs Rijeka who seems like starting to pick up form, also advanced in Europe. Yeah 0-2

In basketball also un sunday

>U-BT v Red Star Belgrade @1.53
Don't know much but Red Star used to play at a level above the romanian outfit

Last one. On monday

>El Gaish v Al Ahly @1.57
Al Ahly looks like firing with all cilinders. Key players with the team (Ashour, Trezeguet, Bencharki etc etc) and hunting for the title, so no wrongs steps allowed

>>153756748
>>Orenburg v Zenit @1.50
>NPCs should be an osbtacle
NO, NO, NO. I meant they SHOULDN'T be an obstacle.

NPC's shouldn't be an obstacle

Goddamn it, if we lose this one...

>>153756051
>Could be even 5+, could be even 6 7 when it's PSV and ALKMAAR .
I don't think it's going over 3 or 4 for PSV, but I've seen AZ have a horrible game before in Eindhoven, giving away goals one after another. I think AZ has a good chance of scoring at least once or twice. PSV also has a tough game next weekend, so they might sub off some of the starters when they are ahead on goals

>>153757428
I see. Any thoughts on Ajax?

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is baseball the only sport where the favorite is GUARANTEED to win?

mens cross country skiing, lahti sprint skate matchups,

mathias holbaek @ 2.2 * 486.18 (pinnacle lets you bet upto $700, but i dont like to bet more than $500 at once on 365) to win 1030
janik rielbi @ 2.06 * 500 (on bet365) to win 1030

486.18 + 500 = 968.18 to win 1030 ($61.82) about a 6.5% return. event starts in about 2 hours. not sure if you will have much time to lock it in.

>>153755885
i cashed it out only moved from 2.50 to 2.40

>>153765220
damn it looks like that bet would have won. ill keep testing out the system.

ncaab
iowa vs nebraska over 134.5 @ 2.20 on bet365
most books have this line closer to 2.00 - 2.10. again will watch for line movement before the game starts tomorrow.

>>153766636
ended right at 136. under would have hit exactly. damn.

Dukes winning it all in cbb

>>153768449
the line has moved in my favor and 134.5 is the new 1.90 line. we have some positive closing line value and could cash out ahead right now but i will hold on this time and see if they can win the over.

Some good nhl bets coming.
I like avalanche goals
Then over in the Boston and Dallas matches but the best bet is super over buffalo Tampa bay I’ll bet on dumb goal amounts in that one

>>153781195
>but the best bet is super over buffalo Tampa bay I’ll bet on dumb goal amounts in that one
Say no more

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Why do non-gamblers hate us so much?

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Update: i actually lost just 1 game (krasnodar leads anytime) on my uncle's acca, and could've made 2k. Now i falled into depression

>>153782916
Hate us ain't us

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I was down 500 last night before this hit

>>153786152
Congrats

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>lowball Lebron legs because I know he sucks
>motherfucker isn't even playing
Can this piece of shit retire already?

>Sabres were 5 on 3 for 2 minutes and couldn't score
But when my team goes 4 on 5 we conceide 100% of the time

Ez. Lots of fighting in this match. Should help the overs i believe

>>153780025
what a bet. over cleared with under 10 seconds to go in the game. light day in college hoops tomorrow so not much to try on but ill keep going during march madness with these higher odds.

>>153789063
Who's ur march madness future

>>153781195
You beautiful madman

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no more parlays

>>153792002
>8-7 and 5 fights haha
Kek that was a great one but I somehow missed my goalscorer multi baka

If lightning get the right opponent the goals start to rain.

>>153792161
Ok, but 15 goals is sth special. Wish i betted more

North Korea vs China in Asian women, something tells me North Korea wins by at least 2 goals

>>153792834
Something lied to me

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what could go wrong with this bet?

>>153793619
are nords good at soccer?

this is a little bit of a stale line so might not work as well as the other games, penn state vs northwestern

bet365 line opened o/u 148.5 @ 1.90 7-8 arounds ago, but pinnacle didnt open their lines until much later. the 365 line has since moved down to be inline with pinnacle, both books now have something like, o144.5 @ 1.95, u144.5 @ 1.86, but i dont think the original line was totally off. i think there is value right in the middle here.

penn state vs northwestern over 146.5 @ 2.25 (on bet365), pinnacle, circa, and most other books have this line close to 1.95-2.05 odds.

What do we have for champions league?
Im trying tl gamble for a living

>>153749222
I follow Lucrative James and I’m down 57 units

>>153759460
Multiple top 25 teams lose every gameday in college baseball

>>153807661
Lmao those retards all suck mmaexperts is 0-14 this year on locks

Emmett +400 ml ufc its a good match up for him

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psg odds climbing rapidly. went from a 1.75 favorite to a 2.10 favorite. wonder what the book learned.

>>153818160
i might place a small bet on the road underdog here. maybe even chelsea +0.5. psg is the broccoli headed dipshits team of choice. those retards are probably locked in back at 1.75. would be betting again the dumb money.

>>153818160
They learned nothing people just started seeming bets on psg. I've made my casinos lines move off of 5k bets its not that much effort to do

What a fucking horror i lived yesterday. Had overs in the 0-0 game while the other two were 7+

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STOP TRYING TO RIG MY SHIT

was busy yesterday and didnt have a chance to see when the books first opened the lines. the northwestern game missed by 3 points after the game got off to a fast start and looked like we were going to clear it. will try with this game again tomorrow.
iowa vs osu
under 138.5 @ 2.10 (on bet365)
lot of books have the 138.5 line as their 1.90/1.90 split. this line might move pretty soon, its basically 1 betting unit away from being arable. some books will have to adjust their lines. doubt you ever see this line at 2.10 again.

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of fucking course the day i bet on jokic is when he feels like selling

>>153755885
you would think such an obvvious system to compare soft books to pinny would have been done to death and have bots already covering it that it couldnt be profitable or fast track you to get gubbed.

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cashed out before fanduel could jew me

>>153838262
lost it all

>>153816834
>0-14 on locks
I seriously doubt that but agree they all suck
they're all just normal dudes like anyone from this thread creating a youtube channel and pretending to be a hotshot capper

UFC Emmett vs Vallejos Saturday 3/14

Not a great card but a few spots I like this weekend

>Hughes +130 vs Rodriguez
These two are evenly matched. A finish is very unlikely. Either fighter at +130 is the right play here. Don't see either pulling away and winning clearly so take plus odds.

>Smith -245 vs You
I like Smith, athletic prospect who presents danger in the standup with good enough wrestling to control fights. Some cardio concerns but I don't think You is dangerous enough as a finisher to get a stoppage if Elijah fades. I like Smith to win 1-2 and get his hand raised by DEC or KO.

>Mesquita wins ITD vs Rendon -150
Haven't been many finishes this year so I'm hesitant to lay a minus number, but it's the right play. Mesquita is extremely strong and has elite BJJ plus nasty GnP. Rendon has never been finished but she's never fought anyone half as dangerous as Mesquita. I think Bea destroys her and wins via GnP or sub.

>Curtis +270 vs Orolbai
Curtis has a clear path to victory...stuff takedowns and use his length to keep Orolbai at distance. This bet will look terrible if Curtis gets taken down multiple times...I trust the veteran to fight smart and have a chance to win on the scorecards.

>Petrino -230 vs Asplund
Petrino should destroy Asplund, probably wins by sub. He's in trouble if the fight gets past halfway due to his dogshit gas tank. Don't think that's a real issue tho cuz Asplund has bad TDD and got dominated on the mat by Denzel Freeman. Petrino SUB +225 worth a look too.

>Rahiki vs Hardwick under 2.5 rounds -165
These guys both suck. Rahiki is a glass cannon, Hardwick is a punching bag with a better all around MMA skillset. Someone gets KO'd, or Hardwick gets Rahiki down and chokes him out inside 2 rounds.

>Delgado ITD -160 vs Fili
Heavily juiced line, still playing it. Fili is inching toward retirement, Delgado needs a win after a close loss against Wood. Delgado is dangerous early, great speed and solid power.

1/2

>>153841677

>Lemos +170 vs Robertson
Robertson is a can crusher. Lemos has struggled against grapplers in the past, I just don't believe in Robertson laying -200 here. Lemos might spend a round on her back, will do damage and potentially find a finish late. Good bet at plus money.

>Emmett +400 vs Vallejos
I don't expect Emmett to win. Value play due to Vallejos being heavily favored and the recency bias of main event underdogs coming through. Emmett is a puncher's chance personified, could catch Vallejos when Kevin loads up headhunting. Worth a quarter unit.

2/2

wbc tomorrow korea vs dominican republic,

over 9.5 runs @ 1.95 (bet365)
under 9.5 @ 2.35 (pinnacle)

about a 7% return. most books have the over 9.5 line around 1.95-1.90, while pinny has it at @ 1.757, not really too sure why pinny has such a different opinion on this line, but i would even put a small bet on over 9.5 on bet365 even without an arb, because that is some pretty good juice.

>>153843705
odds on pinnacle are dropping fast now down to 1.613, might not have much time to smash the juiced line

>>153843705
>pinny

Who we backing for Cheltenham then lads? I've gone for a fairly boring pick with Gaelic Warrior.

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Draftkings just updated their app and its absolutel 1/10 jeetslop what the flying fuck is this? 6 fights. 6 fucking fights is all you can get. No futures, no upcoming events. What the nigger loving fuck is this

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Did you want over and under lines? Maybe prop lines? Fuck you retard Raj and Baboolaka just got done with our excellently coded app just look at what they've done sir!

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This is a dark day

Amanda lemos +170 the other chick almost passed out today from the cut

is fenerbahce fucking serious? they can't score 1 fucking goal against these shitters?

>>153843839
all the books lines moved to match pinnacle and even shifted up to 10.5 runs. you wont even get 10.5 runs @ 1.95 odds. we are getting 1 free run from the book. hope you locked in that +ev line @ 1.95.

>>153848000
Fade Michigan. They can’t beat Duke

>>153847953
>>153847963
>>153848000
>>153848036
This is the DFS app, not the sportsbook

>>153848831
I thought it was funny you called it pinny

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My money's on Team Spirit. They lost the first map, so they have to win the next 2. Tough but they have the best player in the world

>college basketball game going into TRIPLE overtime

i made a second arb on that korea dominican republic after the line moved up to 10.5 runs, game ended 10-0 after a mercy rule, pinnacle paid the under 10.5 as a winning bet, while bet365 voided the over. what a lucky day.

>>153848611
>30 year old femleaf dying from the cut
KWAB

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if you ever wanted proof the casino is rigged here it is. they love when you lose but hate when you win. pretty much beat bet365 and now they are crying big time. cant cashout bets anymore. no more early payouts. and they dont give me a boost if i make a parlay. basically death limited on alpine skiing, cross country, and biathlon, limited on other sports too but not as harshly as skiing events. 365 doesnt know jack shit about skiing. pinnacle and 365 will frequently have different favorites in a head to head matchups. if you ever see one head to head where pinnacle has a heavy favorite vs a heavy underdog, (like a 1.50 vs 2.70) while 365 considers the same head to head a like 1.86/1.86 close bet, smash the bet365 +ev line for whoever pinnacle thinks is the favorite. ill have to try and get somebody to make me a new account or something lol.

>>153856992
Always rated you

virginia vs duke (on bet365)
over 138.5 @ 2.12, i would even make a small bet on over 139.0 @ 2.25. bit of juice to that line most books have 138.5 as their o1.95/u1.86 line.

Imho one good value bet today is
>Dinamo Moscow away at FK Rostov , @2.50.
I think they have a team [way] above their 7th place in the standings. And even their form in the last 5 is great. It's away and they don't usually get the 3 pts here but hosts are a modest team with only 17 goals scored. And the 5 or 6 russian starters from Dinamo are all national team players (Tyukavin - starting #9, Gladyshev -scored 4 against Belarus, one of the Myranchuk's, the two CDM Fomin or Glebov, or even the CB Osipenko who gets called to the NT used to be Rostov's best defender) . There's a couple brazilians worth noted like Bitello the #10 or that guy Rubens from Atletico Mineiro. And the goalkepper Lunev who you probably heard of. Did not think they'd beat CSKA in the previous game, cause i knew about their good form already, the red card helped there. But i have prepared this tip on them to win here at FK Rostov for more than a week to be honest. The black winger from Young Boys , Muomi Ngamaleu might also be impactful. The right back Caceres plays for Paraguay NT , and so on (Marichal - the other CB , scored 2 the previous game, Skopintsev - LB for many years here, or even the ST backup Sergeev, other notable names) .
So yeah , away win . Correct score prediction : 1-2 (pro tip, when making a score prediction always include the other team scoring, if they do get one, it seems like you anticipated it. if your team wins 0-1 0-2 0-3 , all the better)

>>153856992
Dont withdraw till you’re ready to lose the account, I’ve noticed they leave you winning for longer if you don’t withdraw

>>153860542
>"yes, yes, goyim has not withdrawn the funds yet."

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Pray for me lads

>>153841677
Dude Curtis is literally dropping down a weight class against the most violent prospect in the division, he is fucked

>>153861639
Curtis looked fine on the scale. Orolbai’s striking is mid. Rebecki fucked him up on the feet. Curtis has a chance if he doesn’t get wrestlefucked each round. If he gets taken down early it’s going to be ugly tho

>>153856992
>Limiting an account over $1700 winnings
What a bunch of fucking pussies wow

>>153856992
>$1791.2
cheap bastards.
what about distributing your bets among several bookies?

I am sorry this is offtopic but only gambling thread on 4chan.

These are the plausible longshots for Oscars predictions market

Supporting Actor
Delroy Lindo
Cinematography
Sinners
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Directing
Sinners
Ryan Coogler
Makeup and Hairstyling
Sinners
Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
Music (Original Song)
I Lied To You
from Sinners; Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
Production Design
Sinners

Sound
Sinners

Yes its all Sinners but there are a lot of other nominations I didn't say. These are the true lock longshots that make like 900%-2000%.

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Got Lemos and Silva +604
Flames +128 vs Islanders

>>153859302
>betting on russnigger league
The degeneracy has reached new levels of low

>>153864303
the worst part is it isn't even his pick. stole it from anatoly "puma" belyaev, the soviet tipster

someone give me their draft kings promo code

>>153865865
>russnigger bots posting with romanian flags
Tell me something new

>>153866604
Trust me i never stole a tip from anyone, and i don't even know who puma belyev is

I think there's value on Charlotte to beat Inter Miami @2.24

>>153868656
Been looking over the lineups and Inter Miami has rotated because of their CONCACAF tie with Nashville , so nobody in their lineup played together before, while Charlotte plays their usual 11.

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Inter Miami:
GK: somewhat leaky from what i saw before
RB : the mutt Fray. a-by-si-mal . a literal nightmare. used to be infuriated with him when i betted inter miami overs and he was on
CB: Lujan (no idea, i don't see games as most "experts" do. Don't even remember him on the pitch, but he lost his starting spot for a reason i guess)
Noah Allen - a dream for overs imo. that should tell you everything about noah allen
Reguilon - hasn't played a game of football in 2 years i believe
Midfield and attack:
Luis Suarez, fat at 40.
Pinter and Morales, 18 y.o youngsters
Silvetti is ok
Don't know the two CDM
Messi not on the bench

Charlotte
Tim Ream from fulham
that guy Westwood looks like he played in championship all his carreer . same for left back "Toffolo"
Pep Biel played for copenhagen and olympiakos
Abada played for celtic
and obviously Zaha
The rest , no idea but at least they play together for a few years.

Low stake. Tactical analysis

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>>153868942
>Tactical analysis
I'm being ironic, but for real i remember back in the day i used to put on paper the first 11 and find mismatches. But not like flashscore, each team in their half. No. How they play. I made a quick demonstration in pic related. And i got it right back then. At the 2018 world cup. Or the CL final. Being high profile games, even knowing the lineups from the morning, with no modesty i can say i had a feel for some games sometimes. The flair. That's real betting. Might return to the roots...

My goat orolbai has 7 takedowns in round 1 lol

>>153862092
get rekt nerd

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you would have to be retarded to not go all in on this

>>153872857
Where can i bet for DR vs USA? pls help amerifriend i am new on this betting thing.

>>153874549
What sportsbooks are available to you?

>>153874610
I was trying Betcris to test but they offer a very small amount for a simple win basically a few cents for 16 USD.

>>153875259
Find the bet that has DR over 3.5 runs.

DR is really +110 vs USA in baseball do they have a shot or should I heem USA

>>153884555
usa jobbed to italy

Time to admit defeat.

>>153884555
odds really dropping on the dominican republic now. lot of books moving to a 1.90/1.90 split now.

>>153872857
that...was...BULLSHIT!!!!!!!

>>153892714
Oof

>USA loses
>American WBC viewership drops
>Ump decides to call it for burgerland
Nothin' personnel, kiddo.

ncaab
troy vs nebraska, but the game isnt until thursday

over 136.5 @ 1.90
would take it all the way up to over 139.5 @ 2.25

most books have 138.5 as their 1.90/1.90 split, the 365 line is giving us a free basket. probably not going to be able to get these odds if you wait until wednesday/thursday.

>>153892837
Netflix already took it on the chin with the Japan loss

Kek I am glad about fading that dom republic baseball game, it makes me very wary when so many the bet consensus strikes

NCAAM???
give me a 10+pt underdog

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>tfw Alpine was +1200 for highest speed in Chinese GP
Easiest money I've ever made
Also give me my money you bastards the game ended 20min ago

tell me how do i arbitrage without getting banned

>>153901161
Use different books.

>>153901161
use a betting exchange or books like bookmaker, bet105, or pinnacle that basically promote never limiting winners.

>>153896330
Troy over Nebraska

>people actually took Italy ML over Venezuela
lmao

Kinda like 5 League 1 matches for goals tomorrow but league 1 usually sucks.
I can’t help it.
Going for the Bolton/Cardiff/Peterborough/Wimbledon and Barnsley matches

kind of crazy how the book still has such little respect for bodo. after this much sustained dominance over top clubs even away from home almost feel like you have to take bodo +1.5 @ 1.80

>>153903134
You are probably right
If they play Man city next it will be a cash cow DNB wager imo

>>153903388
>Man city next
You been drinking m8?

>>153903134
agreed
I’ve been sprinkling a little bit on bodo wins along the way
might as well ride it out

Winnipeg Jets ML @ -130
Bobby Witt Jr. 2+ hits/runs/RBI @ -155

>>153903134

good call, retard

>>153909888
hope nobody tailed me. what a pair of stinkers.

>>153903656
Kek I guess it was wishful thinking

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5+ in johor match fell to @1.36
Barca newcastle 4+ @1.95
Al ahli v al hilal 3+ @1.62
Bayern scatalanta 4+ @1.90
Liverpool galatasaray 4+ @1.85
Tottenham atletico 3+ @1.62
Palmeiras hw
Inter miami nashville 4+ @2.37
Avalanche dallas 6+ @1.62
Toluca san diego 1 & ...3, 4+?

Thoughts?

Barca - Newcastle will have at least 2 penalties
Don't miss out on this

Odds are looking suspicious for Tottenham - atletico plus Simeone is a coward who doesn't like going for the kill despite having an advantage and Tottenham can barely score. I'm at a loss

bit of a weird line here on bet365

st louis vs georgia, tomorrow 345pm eastern time
georgia +0.5 halftime spread @ 1.80

the book is giving 1.74 odds for georgia to be straight up winning at half time, so im not sure why they are giving even better odds for the favorite to be +0.5 here. most books have the georgia +0.5 line closer to 1.66-1.70 which would be more in line with the moneyline. maybe an error by 365.

Bama is losing to hofstra

reminder: don’t bet on soccer

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https://youtu.be/eaGxPe3OZ98

dont be a fag

UFC London Evloev vs Murphy Saturday 3/21

Back to back mid weeks. I like this card for betting tho. Few spots I'm riding:

>Pinto wins round 1 +110
Franco is trash. Pinto is a very good heavyweight. Would be shocked if this is anything but a quick KO or quick takedown and sub. Pinto is a top 10 caliber heavyweight, Franco has no business in UFC. Fight isn't close. Take Pinto & under 1.5 if you want a slightly safer bet.

>Wood +200 vs Keita
Disrespectful line to Wood IMO. He's 10-3 UFC facing a debut fighter. Keita def has power and could KO Wood, but I like Wood to survive some trouble early and win a decision. Wood is really good. Debut fighters have not been winning fights lately, can't lay -235 with Keita unless you're sure he's going to find a finish.

>Kondratavicius vs Trocoli over 1.5rds +195
Contrarian play. Trocoli is horrible and everyone thinks he gets finished immediately. I don't think he's good, but I'm not buying Montas as a killer quite yet either. Would not be surprised to see this get into the mid 2nd round, worth a play at a near 3-1 payout.

>Pericic vs Sutherland over 1.5rds +105
Sutherland is tough and doesn't present much danger. He got heel hooked by Valter last time out and needs a better performance at home in England. I think he can go toe to toe with Pericic and survive at least past halfway.

>Rock +105 vs Al-Selwady
Not high on either guy. Picking Rock because he's been active while Al-Selwady has been inactive because of injuries. Also a home crowd for Rock so he likely gets a close decision. Love him at plus money here.

>Iwo vs Lane under 0.5rds +180
Not a typo, I'm taking the under 0.5 rounds line. Lane had no chin at heavyweight, now the 6'6" former NFL player is going to cut 40 pounds and fight at 205. I doubt this fight happens due to Lane's weight cut. If he makes weight, he gets knocked out cold inside 2 minutes.

1/2

>>153926328

>MVP -192 vs Patterson
On paper this is a terrible matchup for Patterson. He's been can crushing against hittable dudes, now he's fighting a guy who even top ranked guys struggle to touch. MVP sticks and moves and wins by DEC/KO. This line should be much, much wider IMO.

>Riley by KO vs Aswell +225
Aswell has a great chin, hasn't fought anyone like Riley though. Riley is exciting, flashy, and he's being given a hittable opponent to get a big KO at home. If you want to be risk averse take Riley by DEC/KO double chance at -225. I think he gets Aswell out of there.

Not betting the main event. Keep getting those wrong.

>>153917648
Too late now obviously but avalanche and Dallas are struggling to score lately. Quite a few NHL games are under tomorrow i will try a multi on a few of them, otherwise buffalo/ sharks looks quite goaley

>>153926660
Is yeah im betting on Canberra raiders /under in the NRL tonight

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>>153926660
Took goal all around
Porto stuttfart 4+
Betis pana 4+
Sparta az 4+
all 3 up to 5+ 6+ 7+
and also
rayo game 4+
Villa lille 4+
Strasbourg rijeka 4+
Shakthar lech 4+
Roma bologna 4+
lower stakes
Just of FOMO

And the cream de la cremé everybody's been waiting for, the 8-legged acca.
All 2+, some promoted to 3+. Odds @19
Sorry for the late post.

Duke wins the tournament this game is performative so people bet everyone else

Tigres Cincinnati 3+ 4+ 5+ BIG
GO GO GO

Anything high scoring in NHL?

>>153934881
Took sharks buffalo and canucks tampa bay over 5.5

>>153935430
Yeah i fucked up the buffalo game, hit 3/4 of the unders baka
Maybe tomorrow will be better

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>>153934207

Back to ufc betting after a few months of being strapped for cash.

My slips for this weekend are:

150$ - Pericic + Matas by Finish
150$ - Sham Rock UD
150$ - Luke Riley + CLD
150$ - Iwo Baraniewski 1st RD KO
150$ - Evloev + MVP

Wanted to make a big bet of at least a few keys on Evloev/MVP but I'm still strapped for cash

FCSB UTA 4+ 5+ 6+ 7+
CS Falcons @1.60 v Navi

Dolidze +350 he's going do the grapplefuck

>>153939934
FCSB isn’t really a goal team imo.
That being said watch me fuck up dutch soccer

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>>153941164

>>153941171
:(

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>Prairie View A&M +8000 + Early Win Token

missouri vs miami game is being played in st louis, they are basically the home team. might be worth a small bet on them to pull off an upset.

espanyol @ 2.50

i think i'm stuck, i can make $50-$100 from bets in a day easy but after that i manage to lose it all

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I was watching the stream of a game i had a bet on the other day, and the favourites, the team i betted on, made it 0-2 in 90+1'. But there was a VAR check, and they were about to disallow the goal. Which they did! They did... but the funny thing was some guy in the chat said "they're gonna take away the first goal as well".

Two days ago i was out of money and i asked a buddy of mine for 200 ron. I told him i was gonna pay him back in 3 weeks, on 10th of april when i get my paycheck. I put the money on tigres 3,4,5 goals , and at 5AM i sent the money back. Imagine someone who you know is a compulsive gambler asks you for 40$ at 8PM , and at 5 in the morning sends you the money back.

Today i have a budget of 250.
>200 i've put on brighton liverpool over 3.5 @2.50
>50 i've put on a 7 game parlay, odds 5
Bayern ml @1.17
Zvezda v Radnicki over 2.5 @1.29
Krasnodar leads anytime @1.16
Parivision v Team Spirit @1.27
AC Milan @1.40
Glasgow Rangers @1.29
Benfica @1.30

>>153946381
There were very good odds for over 1.5 goals for that game. Both teams has shown to have effective attacks in some parts of this season. Glad i atleast put some on that

Oilers TBL looks like a good matchup for goals, I’ll bet some random goal amounts

>>153957780
Ok. Keep in mind Draisaitl out for the rest of the season

>>153958630
Yeah hurts the bet a bit.
I’m trying leaf senators over 7.5 @3.10 also, line looks too low to me. It’s probably a better bet than TBL but I think both overs hit easily

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>>153959602

>>153957780
Smh I’m an idiot

tokushima vortis +0 @ 1.75

>>153926345
>>153926328
Good event. Aswell’s chin is elite, never betting that dude to get finished again

>>153962251
You're not an idiot

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>>153746474
Does anyone else get this glitch on bet365? When I do get it, it somehow reinforces my belief in the pick haha
>>153962405
looool, epic fail, though I am glad to see another degen betting the Japanese football pyramid from half the world away

Boca @1.75
Vasco @ 2
Cruzeiro @ 1.85
lets see how it goes today.

>>153962405
actually, we could start a telegram group or something. you are the fist person i've seen that is degen enough to bet on japan's second division, i respect that

>>153969899
no way vasco hits. gremio were a strong team all along, but now they have a good goalkeeper for this season, too. no way they are at 4,33. i have cruzeiro btts, i think neymar can get gifted a penalty or somehting

>>153969985
the MLs have moved, now the odds are not that good.
>vasco
at home, one day more resting, I think it may make the difference.
>cruzeiro
knowing santos new manager they'll try to park the bus. Also it seems Neymar is not playing.

>>153970433
yea i made a mistake here with santos, not knowing neymar was not fit. vasco is also going great for you

>>153971218
>vasco
got unnecessary stressful
>cruzeiro
Santos slurped the game. Unders was the call.

>>153972485
>>153962405
last time im gonna nag with this, would you 2 make some telegram group or something?

Gtfo with you telegram shit lol

>>153969899
Noice. You do have early payout?

Turkiye (the ottoman empire) vs RoMANIA
5-2
Let's get this over the line ;)
4+ 5+ 6+ 7+
2.7 5.0 9.3 20

>>153974594
no :(

>>153974963
Amateur

Pyfer w by submission vs adensaya

>>153976640
Pyfer sucks. If he beats Izzy it’s by KO. Guy is not skilled enough to sub Izzy

>>153976697
Izzy sucks he had no reaction time left he's going to get cracked and the choked out

>>153976640
This is a get right spot for Izzy, he'll win easily.

>bolivia @2.45 v suriname
Am I missing something here? it looks too good.

>>153979449
Looks good to me except it’s being played in Mexico.
I’ll tail

>>153977437
Go watch the imavov fight he's getting cracked by pyfer. Israel takes an uppercut flush in the first because he literally doesn't see it and neither does he see the heem that imavov lands in the second

>>153979529
Suriname has good players tho, or at least some players in decent leagues according to transfermarket. IDK

>>153979597
>>153979529
>>153979449
Suriname is a former Dutch colony. All the better players play in the Netherlands. The question is, do they train with the main squad and play for u21 or bench warm. That is something for to research for every individual starter, or just ask someone Dutch here.

Also, is the French sqauad known yet for the firendly versus Brazil?

>>153974626
>Turkiye (the ottoman empire) vs RoMANIA
I have Turkey -1 and Turkey to first reach 3 corners

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What can go wrong here? What do I need to change?
>Brazil v France
both squads have left crucial defenders and midfielders at home due to injury, but are complete offensively. it's also a friendly.
>all others
in every pair, the home team is much stronger and will play their best lineup. Corners are a given with one way traffic.
Also, Wales have not won against Bosnia yet, despite always having had the better team.

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WHY can't i get this luck with any of my big bets?

>>153980960
Are you telling me its going to be goals for France/Brazil

>>153982577
i wish more people here would post their picks before the games with reasons for why, like this chad: >>153980960

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>dealer job offer at the local 'sino

landaluce is a fucking bum. up 3-0 and in the process of choking this 3rd set after he came back to win the tiebreak in the second

>>153983960
It’s fine if you are young because of the night hours and random social life.
>t. Did it for a year
Best bet in NHL today is over 5.5 Dallas vs NJ

>>153985904
>Best bet in NHL today is over 5.5 Dallas vs NJ
will tail. i don't know shit about hockey but i trust you, anon. there can't be a 3 nil game two times in a row.

anyone else like the over in the sweden-ukraine match?

>>153986062
>will tail. i trust you, anon.
Your trust paid off

>>153983960
do euros tip?
i know a guy from college who got an engineering degree, hated being a mechanical engineer, then moved to vegas. he deals high limit table games about 30 hours a week and makes 6 figures on tips. some rich old lady plays every day and tips him at least $100

>>153991733
indeed. i went with over 4.5 at only 1.25 odds, but it was because i cashed out an unstarted parlay and added this to it, so i wanted to be safe.

>>153990750
i think it's a good bet desu. given that ukraine is the home team and the Swedes received many goals from teams Slovenia and Kosovo but have a lot of attacking firepower with Gyokeres and Elanga. it's what i would bet if i put money on this game. but i already have Turkey to win, Wales to win + race to 3 corners, and Poland to qualify on a parlay

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Basedball season begins tonight. I would like to do a run down for anons who might be new to betting MLB. This is one easiest, if not the easiest, sports to make a profit on. This will be a long post, but bear with me. You will learn quite a bit and if you follow these rules and systems, you will have more money in September than you have now in March.

First things first. The golden rule: never ever bet favorites. Never lay juice. Not even a -105. Never. Only bet underdogs. You can have a 45% win rate and make a great profit if you only take dogs. If you go 50/50, you're making money hand over fist. Fun fact, if you bet every single underdog every single day, starting today, you will not have lost any money by the end of the season. Now, you're not gonna do this, because the profit wouldn't actually be worth the investment. But just a mathematical illustration of why you ONLY bet dogs.

For instance, the Dodgers are the best team in baseball, right? They win 90-100+ games every year, right? Last year they won 93 games and lost 69 games. 24 more wins than losses. However, if you bet $1000 in the Dodgers moneyline all 162 games, you lost $9,540. Why is that? Because the juice smashed you. This is similar for every World Series favorite team. So who are the top 4 World Series favorites going into this season:
1) Dodgers
2) Yankees
3) Mariners
4) Mets

Bet against these 4 teams every time they are favorites, which will be pretty much every game. The Dodgers were only underdogs 20 times last year. They were 10-10 in those games, which is a very good profit (since it's all plus odds). Are you starting to see now? These 4 teams as favorites = fade, as dogs = take.

1/2

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>>153992184
Now since you don't want to bet every single underdog, let's whittle it down.
>home dogs
If you bet $1000 on every single home dog, you made $23,900 (+2.2 ROI).
>home dogs off of a win
Home dogs that won their previous game cashed ar a 48.7% rate, good for +12.4 units of profit
>dogs coming off of a blowout
Teams coming off blowouts generally play better the next day.
>dogs playing against a team that is leading their division but not profitable
Teams that are in first place in their division, but are a net negative in profitability are a fade.

This should help whittle down the dog strategy. Another great strategy is to autobet any team that is +1.5 on the run line at plus odds. So if a team is +1.5 (+110) just autobet that. The White Sox were one of the worst teams in the league last year. Their record was 60-102. But on they were the #1 run line team. They went 94-68 on the run line.

The steaks strategy: If a team is on a 7, 8 or 9 game lose streak, take them up until 10. Once they get to 10 without breaking the streak, hop off. This is sort of an inverse Martingale strategy. A team on a 7 game losing streak will very likely be dogs in all of these games. This works the other way around too. Fade a team on a 7, 8 or 9 game winning streak. Their opponent will very likely be dogs.

There are some other systems I like to follow, but I'll keep them under my hat for now. I'm going to try to post all of my picks every day if I can.

So with all of this in mind, who are we taking tonight? You should already know
>Giants +105
Home dogs, home opener. Their ace is on the mound in Logan Webb, one of the best pitchers in the league. Yankees has to travel all the way across country for this one-off island game. All of the value is on the Giants tonight.

Good luck, and don't bet what you don't have

2/2

>>153992194
keep posting, anon, i will be tailing you as soon as my tomorow's parlay is over with

>>153992194
I like it the whole theory makes sense

>>153750631
check lucrative james

>>153750631
All in on bahamondes

4 teamer for ufc
Bahomondes
Barber
Pyfer
Tybura

>>153992184
>Fun fact, if you bet every single underdog every single day, starting today, you will not have lost any money by the end of the season.
i dont believe that is true. if you followed this logic last season, only 4 teams in mlb (blue jays, padres, brewers, astros) managed to be profitable if you bet on them every single game they were the books dog. if you bet $100 on every single blue jays, brewers, marlins, astros, padres, red sox, brewers regardless of them being the dog or the favorite last year, you would have made a profit.

>>153995240
the guardians, didnt mean to list the padres twice.

lebron hit 20 tonight $$$

>>153992184
>only bet underdogs
this is not true for the worst teams like colorado and the chisox. colorado won 49 games last year you'd need odds near +300 to profit on their games.
the sweet spot is finding teams like oakland who everyone thinks is terrible but they are actually ok

UFC Seattle Saturday 3/28

Pretty good card for a fight night. Looking forward to this one.

>Simon -155 vs Yanez
Simon has the grappling and power upsides in this fight. Yanez has better overall striking but I don't trust his durability. Yanez gets hurt in almost every fight and he's nearing the end of his career IMO. Simon wins at home in Washington behind a couple takedowns.

>Stirling vs Lopes over 1.5rds -145
Stirling has been a big favorite in all three UFC fights, including being a heavy favorite to finish a couple fights. Lopes has chin issues, but I don't trust Stirling to finish anyone. He has the CKB style of jabbing and leg kicking without much urgency. I'll take over 1.5 every time it's offered on a Stirling fight.

>Tybura +120 over Fortune
Fighters making their debut have not done well recently. Fading Fortune who I think is overrated with an inflated record fighting tomato cans in Bellator and other crappy promotions. Tybura at plus money has to be the bet.

>Gibson +225 vs Hooper
I don't understand this line. Gibson is a D1 wrestler with decent striking. Hooper is slow, unathletic, and won't be able to get Gibson to the ground. I guess it's possible Hooper outstrikes Gibson but I'm not laying -278 on it. I think Gibson sprawls & brawls and wins by KO/DEC.

>Bahamondes vs Musayev over 2.5 rounds +135
If you took all plus money overs in 2026 you'd be making a killing. I like Bahamondes but he isn't the killer his record shows IMO. I think this is exciting but gets over 2.5 rounds like 5/9 Bahamondes UFC fights.

>McKinney -170 vs Nelson
McKinney wins inside 3 minutes or he loses. I don't think Nelson has the weapons to deter McKinney from blitzing him and winning by KO/SUB early. McKinney's ITD line is almost identical to his ML, which tells you everything you need to know about this fight. Under 0.5 rounds +215 also worth a sprinkle. McKinney has 8 UFC fights that have finished in 2:30 or less, so +215 is a good number

1/2

>>153996612

>Belgaroui +102 vs Abdul-Malik
Mansur was a huge prospect whose hype has died each fight. I just don't think he's that good. Very low volume, seems to have no urgency. If you don't believe me go watch his first round vs Brundage. Belgaroui is a polished, experienced kickboxer who can point fight his way to a win here. Def needs to keep it on the feet, he'll be overmatched wrestling. Don't expect Mansur to come out and grapple though, I think he'll stand and get outpointed for his first loss.

>Douglas wins ITD -185 vs Erosa
Erosa is super hittable, chinny, and is getting finished unless he pulls a crazy sub. Wouldn't be surprised to see Erosa get heemed or club & subbed inside 90 seconds. Douglas hits hard, exciting prospect at 145.

>Grasso +154 vs Barber
Maycee is forever the 'next contender' at 125 but she never quite gets over the hill. I think she gets gatekept by Grasso's superior striking. Maycee has to wrestle to win, I don't see her holding Grasso down to win enough minutes to offset the striking disparity. Massive strength of schedule difference with Grasso going almost 15 rounds with Shevchenko while Barber has been fighting mid-tier flyweights.

Skipping the main event again. I think Pyfer is badly overrated but don't trust Izzy's durability at this point in his career.

>>153993460
I read he's down 60 units the last month
That shouldn't even be possible if you're not a retard

>>153996612
Musayev is literal garbage he got submitted by my goat orolbai ez I wouldnt expect him to last against baha whos a little upset about the barcelos loss

>>153996739
Bahamondes and Barcelos are 2 weight classes apart. They have never fought. What are you talking about.

arkansas vs arizona under 165.0 @ 2.00

>>153996814
Fiziev I get baha confused with nacho

>>153980960
Well I’m going for FHG France and Brazil.
In the NHL I like NJ again this time against Nashville for over goals. Hopefully the line is 5.5 again I think it will be

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>>153997209
I changed that parlay to a bit less risky one but added some money.
>In the NHL I like NJ again this time against Nashville for over goals
will tail, assuming it's after my main parlay

>>153997756
>cashout lower than stake after first leg hits
Kek that sucks
GL

betting on Suriname to win is safe because Bolivia are elevation babbies, right?

>>153746474
So do you guys actually make money or does it all even out in the long run?

Jamaica/Jamaica a good bet? i found that @1.27
I think we overestimate New Caledonia, arnt their best players benchwarmers in French 3rd division

>>153998821
I'm the romanian that usually posts here and, despite the americans thinking i'm a perennial loser, in the last 3 years i actually ended up with profit. Not much, like 200 to 500 euros. Even in 2026, which started quite harsh, i'm up 250 euros at this point. So kinda breaking even

it's true. i called support, cause superbet doesn't show your p&l, and asked that fella if i'm up or down this year. right after this post >>153886740 , and the baboon asks for my id number, only to tell me afterwards that i have to check my transactions and do the math myself. which i did, and, to [probably] no one's surprise, i was actually up 1400 ron. which, despite having literally no pennies left, i was feeling quite content. even proud i'd say. it was proof that the overs worked. the profit was made on those overs. the inter miami's, the tottenham trashings, the club brugges.
and then, if i tell anybody, for example my family, "you know, i'm actually up this year from betting." they literally burst out laughing. i'm not making this up. i make 500 euros at work, how do you think i managed in february to pay for everything i did? the utilities and all that. cause people think i lose all my money betting. i don't. i make 500 euros a month ffs. if anything, i take money FROM my betting account

cause this guy popped up on tiktok and i see him complaining every day that he lost again and that it's impossible to win at betting. of course, cause he bets 8 game accas. on all those traps for mids. corners, cards, first half goals, bet builders, you know the kind. everybody losses 1 game on the parlay, all the time. it's not bad luck. taking 3-6 goal span ( in barca sevilla)? goal spans? or bet builders that bring in negative value. "i'm sorry", i'm not in this category. and it's perhaps normal to be a bit profitable if you bet singles. especially if you dedicated your life to betting it's probably normal be a bit above the surface. i mean, just imagine the guy you see on the betting forum every day is actually down 12 thousand euros in the past 2.5 years, like the tiktok guy lol

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and even superbet respects me. today i was planning to bet 4 5 6 7 goals in our game at the turks. over 3.5 goals is @2.50 now.
but superbet has this promotion, which i anticipated t b h, over 0.5 goals boosted from 1.04 -> 2.00 ; some people can put 50 or 100. i can do 250. because of my VIP status. ( being a serious post, yes, i'm aware of the irony. )
so it's not really worth to take the higher overs anymore.
i can even hedge/ counter at imposing odds of 19.0; again, there's tricks pros know. instead of taking under 0.5 at 14.0, check for correct score first ... and yes, it's 16.0, with the boost .... 19. and you can hedge

hedge? this is arbitrage at this point

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And why do i believe this game will end 5-2?
I just feel it's going to be a chaotic game, being played at the turks, them being able to score, us being able to punch back, even the ref, le texier, i heard it's a guy who quickly losses the games out of control, so could be red cards. The stake is huge, the crowd which averages an iq of 89.5 who supposedly pushes the team at all times. It's not a science to predict the flow of the game, and it ultimately does come to the first goal to arrive AND NOT be disallowed by Le Texier.
So overall yeah, could be 2-0 turkey early, us getting one back by half time. And in second half to pour in goals after the 75th min, as Gemini predicted. If one team scores, the other has to open up.

>>153998821
You’re not allowed to win, you just get limited into oblivion. Then it’s all about getting your hands on accounts but then there’s even more risk added to the equation … pretty damn hard to sustain

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NBA<<<CBA

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>>153992194
Well, Logan Webb got absolutely shelled last night. But we have a long way to go. 1 game down, 2429 games to go. Plenty of money making opportunities. We have 3 home dogs today, and two other plays I like. Let's smash those bookies.

>Pirates +105
Mets as favorites will be an auto-fade for me in most games. We're not going to get Paul Skenes as an underdog very often either. We have to take it.
>Reds +135
Home dog on home opener
>Padres +115
Home dog on home opener. A little iffy since Skubal is on the other side, but gotta play the system.
>Cardinals +105
Home dog on home opener.
>Diamondbacks +1.5 (+105)
A +1.5 run line at plus odds is an autobet for me. Also fading the Dodgers is a long term highly profitable strategy.

Good luck, and don't bet what you don't have.

>>153999215
Parlay bettors are always losing bettors. This is not up for debate. There is a reason that every sportsbook is constantly offering their customers parlay boosters and parlay suggestions at the top of their homepage.

>>153999543
>you just get limited into oblivion
Wut? If you win they put limits on you?

I'm watching the game with the butler and he said 1 goal , 2 at best in this match

>with the butler and my uncle*
Uncle said 4-1 turks

>>153999933
>>153856992
maybe you get lucky with a 1 bet that wins you 50k+ or something and they just brush it off as "luck" and nothing happens, but yea they limit you if you sustain a profit.

>>153999543
i never get banned if i play parlays. besides, if it's just a 1x2 tip, you can simply place it on an exchange for a better price.

>>153999638
with those asian basketball leagues (china, korea, japan, taiwan etc) if you compare the odds from the bigger books like fan duel or 365 to pinnacle, they sometimes have o/u and spreads that are quite a ways a part.

one book will have like o/u 155.5 @ 1.86
but then pinnacle will have the same game o/u at like 161.5 @ 1.86

hard to tell which one is the more accurate like, but you are either getting a +ev over from the big books or a +ev under from pinnacle.

Roaches suck

>yesterday's mlb game barely had 7 runs
>today it got 7 runs in the first inning
baseball is more unpredictable than i thought...

need a romania goal now. that whiff in the 1H off the bar looms large.

I apologize

>>154001153
They limit players that beat the closing odds. The odds they offer when the game starts - you constantly place bets with a better odds? You will be limited.

>>154003041 /bet/tards in shambles

>>154008089
Nice if u had money on it

>>153998821
I'd say yes, otherwise betting would not have interested me. I made 9k and 5k euros in December and January, respectively, from 50 euro. Then compulsively gambled it all before end of February. I consistently only do well around Boxing Day every year, the core of the season where teams play consistent with their true quality and there is just an insane volume of matches, of various competitions. Enough to support my delusional ambitions. What keeps me around is knowing when I am sure about a game and when I have just gambled compulsively, or rather that I do often see an edge. In all but the mentioned part of the year, I merely use the games where I know I have an advantage, that I find like once a week on average and that do usually hit, as bases for ambitious parlays of mostly half guessed games. The way I plan on combating my compulsions is in fixing my personal life and finishing my computer algorithm that will suggest more games to me for research, since I cannot keep up with all leagues. Then I'll make more consistently thought up parlays. Once I reach around 30k of dry money again, I have been at 28k 2 years ago, singles will become interesting again and then I hopefully won't lose money to this degree.
I answered in the spirit of a normal person trying to make it off bets. If you already have financial independence and are fine with single bets to make like 6 percent returns yearly, or just to launder money, then it's a very viable industry.

>+10 fucking minutes of injury time
is soccer always this rigged?

>>154009224
First time watching soccer? Bolivia had a penalty and have spent half the game rolling around the floor

>>154009224
The last few years yes. They used to have an issue with 2 minutes of stoppage time added when a half had 4 subs and 2 goals and a 90 second injury.
They went too far the other direction and now they add an extra 3-4’ almost every game

>>154009224
We usually get 4

>>154001430
The best baseball bet is backing the superior starting pitcher 1st 5 innings line. Didn’t work today (Skenes, Boyd, Brown, Rasmussen) but it’s usually a 60% winner. Just be careful you aren’t getting priced out with something like Pittsburgh -200 first 5 when Skenes is starting

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>>154001253
so heres an example of the books having completely different lines for asian basketball games. 365 has the o/u for this game at 192.5.

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>>154013006
and here is pinnacles line for the exact same game, with a o/u of 201. a 9 point difference between the lines and its too far out of each books range to arb. so you are either getting nice ev on the 365 over or on the pinnacle under, but i dont know which is sharper on these bush leagues.

>>153996923
lol lmao even

>>154013164
the line actually moved down to 164.0 before the game started too lol

>>154013022
Pinnacle is pretty much universally considered the sharpest book

The long winded smug baseballfag getting destroyed so far
>imaginemyshock.png

>>153999815
At a sports bar watching March madness last week. One of the bartenders likes to bet and we were talking plays for the day. We’re talking about how parlay bettors are retards who donate money to bookies. Gen X guy overhears us and gets all pissy, says he hit a 10k NFL parlay and we don’t know what we’re talking about, blah blah blah. He refused to tell us who he parlayed for March madness lmao that fuck must have been 0-10 or something
Parlay bettors are the worst.

>>154001428
lool
>>154009256
should have just made it 60 minutes a game and the clocks stops when play isn't on
>>153997756
i cashed out this parlay when Bosna equalized, at almost even money. here is my new one:
Chile, Draw No Bet @ 1.33 (Already Won)
Nigeria, Draw No Bet @ 2.00
Austria, Draw No Bet @ 1.22
England, Result & Race to 3 Corners @ 1.95
Switzerland, BTTS @ 1.53
Machida Zelvia, Draw No Bet @ 1.50
Wycombe, Draw No Bet @ 1.20
Hungary @ 1.80
i hate when bet365 doesn't show my legs in chronological order

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Don’t say I didn’t tell ya

>>154013540
What’s the purpose of posts like this exactly?
American flags really need to fuck off and die

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>>154015131
i already have 3 parlays ongoing, but i might tail this one for a 4th one. the league choices are so beautifully degenerate they instill in me some trust for your picks.
>American third division betting
lol

pic related Vissel Kobe just turned the game around post 84' minute, saving my parlays

>>154015552
and my Nigeria -1 boutta hit

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Cardinals and Guardians came through for us yesterday, but that was it. If you faded the Mariners as favorites like I said in my first post, you cashed the Guardians at +155. Four teams I will be fading every game as favorites: Dodgers, Yankees, Mets and Mariners (top 4 World Series) favorites. I don't know why I didn't list that game yesterday. Anyways, I'm going to keep playing the underdog system because I'm positive that over the course of the season, it will be profitable. The dogs I like today.
>Giants +115
Home dogs. Fading Yankees as favorites.
>Guardians +140
Dog off of win as underdogs again. Fading Mariners as favorites.
>Royals +125
Getting Ragans as an underdog against a Braves team that is typically overvalued.
>Diamondbacks +200
If you can get the +1.5 run line at plus odds, take it. I got it at +100 last night, but I'm seeing -105 now. I'll be taking Dbacks on the money line too because fade the Dodgers.

Good luck, and don't bet what you don't have.

>>154016528
i'm on dbacks ml, too

>>154015148
The more certain a /bet/ poster is, the more likely they’re a shitty bettor. The 400 word baseballfag will be gone in 2 weeks after he goes .350 on his uber smart mega value picks

>>154017044
Same with the UFCfag
800 words a week and goes 5-7, 6-6, 7-5 every week

>>154017044
>>154017110
How is it a bad thing to rationalize your picks? This helps others to know how much to stake if they want to tail the tip. Besides, you assume a 'tipster' posts all his bets in this thread, which isn't true

marlins moneyline @ 1.50
marlins -1.5 @ 2.10

>>154017903
you like the over in OAK-TOR?

Took 7+ in swiss germany @21

Pro bettor is pro ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

>>154018395
Sick, good shit romgod